Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Guohang on September 17 indicates that the company has exclusive rights to procure passenger aircraft cargo transportation services from Air China, operating independently under its own name for cargo business [1] Group 1: Business Operations - Guohang acts as the contracting carrier, signing cargo transportation service contracts with shippers and collecting freight for goods transported in Air China's passenger aircraft [1] - Air China serves as the actual carrier, providing air transport and related ground services for the goods delivered to Guohang, while also assuming the responsibilities of the actual carrier [1] Group 2: Financial Arrangements - The settlement model involves Air China and its subsidiaries charging Guohang for the exclusive operation of its passenger aircraft cargo business, with the transportation service fees calculated based on actual freight income generated from the cargo business, minus a certain business fee rate [1]

Core Insights - The appreciation of the Renminbi has positively impacted certain sectors, with the Renminbi appreciation beneficiary sector rising by 0.71% compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.34, up 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13215.46, up 1.16% [1] Sector Performance - Leading stocks in the Renminbi appreciation beneficiary sector include: - Jingxing Paper (002067) with a closing price of 6.51, up 9.97% and a trading volume of 166,700 shares, totaling a transaction value of 109 million yuan [1] - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 4.20, up 4.48% with a trading volume of 2,430,400 shares, totaling 1 billion yuan [1] - Southern Airlines (600029) closed at 6.23, up 2.98% with a trading volume of 1,246,400 shares, totaling 770 million yuan [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The Renminbi appreciation beneficiary sector experienced a net outflow of 514 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 467 million yuan [2] - Notable fund flows include: - China Eastern Airlines with a net outflow of 50.94 million yuan from institutional investors and a net inflow of 34.51 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Jingxing Paper had a net inflow of 43.02 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 24.24 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Core Insights - The aviation and airport sector experienced a 2.16% increase on September 17, with China Eastern Airlines leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.34, up 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13215.46, up 1.16% [1] Stock Performance - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 4.20, up 4.48% with a trading volume of 2.43 million shares and a turnover of 1.007 billion [1] - Xiamen Airport (600897) saw a slight decline of 0.14%, closing at 14.70 with a trading volume of 29,500 shares [2] - The highest gainers included China Eastern Airlines, Xiamen Airlines, and Southern Airlines, with respective increases of 4.48%, 3.03%, and 2.98% [1][2] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net inflow of 106 million in main funds, while retail funds had a net inflow of 103 million [2] - The main funds showed a net outflow of 210 million, indicating a mixed sentiment among institutional investors [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - China Eastern Airlines had a net outflow of 50.94 million from main funds but a net inflow of 34.51 million from retail investors [3] - China Southern Airlines experienced a net inflow of 6.64 million from main funds, indicating positive retail sentiment despite overall mixed capital flow [3] - Xiamen Airport faced a significant net outflow of 15.59 million from main funds, suggesting weaker institutional interest [3]

Group 1 - China National Airlines (601111) shares increased by over 5%, currently up 5.73% at HKD 5.72, with a trading volume of HKD 349 million [1] - The company announced that by August 2025, the combined passenger turnover (measured in revenue passenger kilometers) is expected to rise year-on-year [1] - Passenger capacity input (measured in available seat kilometers) is projected to increase by 2.3% year-on-year, while passenger turnover is expected to grow by 3.2% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Domestic passenger capacity input is expected to decline by 1.2% year-on-year, with passenger turnover remaining flat [1] - International passenger capacity input is projected to rise by 12.6% year-on-year, with passenger turnover increasing by 12.9% year-on-year [1] - Regional passenger capacity input is expected to decrease by 5.7% year-on-year, with passenger turnover declining by 2.2% year-on-year [1] Group 3 - The average passenger load factor is 83.7%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Domestic routes are expected to see a load factor increase of 1.1 percentage points, while international routes are projected to rise by 0.2 percentage points, and regional routes by 2.9 percentage points [1] Group 4 - Huatai Securities reported that the summer travel season has seen strong demand for leisure travel, supporting high load factors for airlines, although business travel remains constrained, affecting overall ticket prices [1] - Demand for business travel is expected to recover in September, with a lower base, potentially improving airline ticket pricing data [1] - The combined National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in 2025 is anticipated to drive high tourism market activity, supported by policy, capacity assurance, and upgraded demand, benefiting the accommodation and transportation sectors [1]

消息面上，中国国航发布公告，2025年8月，公司及所属子公司(以下简称"集团")合并旅客周转量(按收 入客公里计)同比上升。客运运力投入(按可用座位公里计)同比上升2.3%，旅客周转量同比上升3.2%。 其中，国内客运运力投入同比下降1.2%，旅客周转量同比持平;国际客运运力投入同比上升12.6%，旅客 周转量同比上升12.9%;地区客运运力投入同比下降5.7%，旅客周转量同比下降2.2%。平均客座率 83.7%，同比上升0.8个百分点。其中，国内航线同比上升1.1个百分点，国际航线同比上升0.2个百分 点，地区航线同比上升2.9个百分点。 华泰证券发布研报称，暑运整体来看，因私出行较为旺盛，支撑了航司较高的客座率，但公商务受限， 拖累了整体票价表现。9月公商务出行需求或将回暖，且基数下降，航司票价数据或有改善。此外， 2025年国庆中秋假期合并，中航证券指出，在政策支持、运力保障与需求升级三重驱动下，今年十一黄 金周旅游市场有望延续高景气，带动住宿、交通等链条全方位释放。 智通财经APP获悉，中国国航(00753)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.73%，报5.72港元，成交额3.49亿港元。 ...

Core Insights - The airline industry is experiencing high passenger load factors and a slowdown in capacity growth, with a focus on increasing international routes [1][4] - Domestic flight turnover has shown steady growth, while international turnover has significantly recovered to pre-pandemic levels [1][4] - Average ticket prices have seen a narrowing decline, indicating potential improvements in revenue per seat for airlines [2][5] Supply and Demand - The industry passenger load factor remains high, with a year-on-year capacity growth slowdown. As of July 2025, the industry’s ASK and RPK increased by 5.5% and 6.1% year-on-year, respectively, with a load factor of 84.5%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Domestic flight turnover increased by 3.9% year-on-year, while international and regional flights have returned to 100.3% of 2019 levels [1] Ticket Pricing - Average ticket prices for the year-to-date (as of September 15, 2025) are 864 RMB, down 8.8% year-on-year. The average ticket price during the summer travel period in July and August fell by 8.8% and 7.3% year-on-year, respectively, with a narrowing decline in August [2] Fuel and Exchange Rates - The average price of aviation fuel in Q3 decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, with the domestic aviation fuel price dropping to 5545 RMB per ton in September, down 7.6% year-on-year [3] - The Chinese yuan has appreciated against the US dollar, with the exchange rate moving from 7.1884 RMB at the end of 2024 to 7.1027 RMB by September 16, 2025 [3] Operational Performance - From January to August 2025, most airlines saw slight increases in domestic capacity, with Spring Airlines showing a growth rate of 4.7%. The passenger load factor for major airlines has shown significant year-on-year increases, with Eastern Airlines up by 3.5 percentage points [4] - In August, Air China had the highest net increase in aircraft, adding six planes, while other airlines also reported net increases [4] Investment Recommendations - The industry is expected to see improvements in unit revenue due to high passenger load factors and narrowing ticket price declines. The implementation of measures to reduce price competition may further support ticket price recovery [5] - Airlines such as China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines are recommended for investment focus [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation transportation industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The industry has maintained a high passenger load factor since the beginning of 2025, with a low growth rate in domestic capacity and a focus on increasing international routes. The net growth rate of airline fleets is below 3%, indicating a tight supply situation. The passenger load factor has improved compared to the same period last year and 2019, particularly in domestic routes. Domestic turnover has shown steady growth, while international turnover has significantly recovered to levels close to 2019 [13][14] - During the summer travel season, the industry experienced a high passenger load factor, and the decline in ticket prices has narrowed. This is expected to lead to a significant improvement in airlines' unit revenue. Additionally, the implementation of measures to curb "involution" and the "Self-Regulation Convention" by the China Air Transport Association is anticipated to reduce malicious price competition, potentially leading to a recovery in ticket prices and further boosting airlines' unit revenue [3][14] - The average ticket price in China for 2025 has been 864 yuan, down 8.8% year-on-year. The average ticket prices during the summer travel season in July and August were down 8.8% and 7.3% year-on-year, respectively, with a narrowing decline in August compared to the previous month [4][30] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for airlines, particularly focusing on Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines [3][14] 2. Capacity Growth and Passenger Load Factor - The industry has seen a high passenger load factor with a slowdown in capacity growth. In July 2025, the industry’s ASK and RPK increased by 5.5% and 6.1% year-on-year, respectively, with a passenger load factor of 84.5%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [18][22] 3. Ticket Prices - The decline in ticket prices has narrowed, with the average ticket price in September showing a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%. The average ticket price for the first half of September was down 3.8% year-on-year [4][30] 4. Fuel Prices and Exchange Rates - The average price of aviation fuel in Q3 decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, with the domestic aviation fuel price in September dropping to 5545 yuan per ton, down 7.6% year-on-year. The exchange rate of the RMB has appreciated since the beginning of 2025 [5][42]

申万宏源指出，8月迎来暑运旺季高峰，航空市场运力运量稳步增长。继续看好航空板块，供给逻辑确 定性强，预计未来3-5年行业机队供给增速趋缓，需求端具备弹性，客运量和客座率持续增长均已在相 对高位，可关注后续民航"反内卷"下票价回暖信号及趋势。同时，在外部油汇变化配合下，航空公司能 够释放较大业绩提升空间。 航空股继续走高，截至发稿，中国国航（601111）(00753)涨4.99%，报5.68港元；南方航空（600029） (01055)涨3.88%，报4.02港元；东方航空(00670)涨2.29%，报3.13港元。 消息面上，据央视网报道，2025年国庆中秋假期合并，10月1日至10月8日放假八天，今年假期旅游热度 高涨。据航旅纵横数据，截至9月13日，今年中秋国庆假期国内航线机票预订量超452万张，日均机票预 订量较去年同期增长超25%。截至9月13日，今年中秋国庆假期的出入境航线机票预订量已超129万张， 日均机票预订量比去年同期增长约14%。 ...

中国民航将于2025年10月底换季，预计局方将继续严控时刻增长，特别是协调机场时刻总量或继续保持 稳定。考虑2025年机队低速增长且周转提升空间有限，预计淡季国内供给将继续低速增长。2024Q4价 格战或致航司明显亏损，预计反内卷短期有望管控过度低价，中期有望政策引导航司干线市场收益管理 改善。预计2025Q4淡季航司将继续大幅减亏，2025全年将行业性扭亏为盈。(格隆汇) | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 涨跌幅 v | | --- | --- | --- | | 00753 | | 5.670 4.81% | | 01055 中国南方航空股 | | 4.040 4.39% | | 00670 | 中国东方航空股 | 3.150 2.94% | 格隆汇9月17日｜港股三大航空股继续拉升，其中，中国国航盘中涨超5%领衔，中国南方航空涨超 4%，中国东方航空涨3%。 消息上，2025年国庆中秋假期合并，10月1日至10月8日放假八天，今年假期旅游热度高涨。航旅纵横大 数据显示，截至9月13日，今年中秋国庆假期国内航线机票预订量超452万张，日均机票预订量较去年同 期增长超25%。截至9月13日，今年中秋国庆假期的 ...

智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，8月迎来暑运旺季高峰，航空市场运力运量稳步增长。继续 看好航空板块，供给逻辑确定性强，预计未来3-5 年行业机队供给增速趋缓，需求端具备弹性，客运量 和客座率持续增长均已在相对高位，可关注后续民航"反内卷"下票价回暖信号及趋势。同时，在外部油 汇变化配合下，航空公司能够释放较大业绩提升空间，推荐中国国航(601111.SH)、华夏航空 (002928.SZ)、春秋航空(601021.SH)、吉祥航空(603885.SH)、国泰航空(00293)、南方航空(600029.SH)、 中国东航(600115.SH)。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 暑运后半段进入旺季高峰，8月民航运力运量均同比增长 根据航班管家数据，8月民航旅客运输量约7508万人次，同比24年增长3.0%;民航国内运力同比24年增长 1.3%，国内客流量同比24年增长2.2%。8月国际客运航班约6.1万班次，恢复至19年同期的88.6%，中国 大陆赴日、韩、香港航班量排列前三。8月民航日均飞机利用率为8.9小时，环比+0.3%，同比+0.2%。 根据航班管家数据，8月宽体机日均利用率为10.5小时，窄体机为8.9 ...