FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年3月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國國際航空股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年4月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00753 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 4,955,610,672 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 4,955,610,672 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 4,955,610,672 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 4,955,610,672 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | ...

中国国航（601111.SH）2024 年年报点评 归母同比减亏，保价策略有望充分受益经济回升 2025 年 04 月 02 日 ➢ 事件：公司发布 2024 年业绩：2024 年公司营收 1667 亿元，同比+18.1%， 归母净亏 2.4 亿元（2023 年归母净亏 10.5 亿元），扣非归母净亏 25.4 亿元 （2023 年扣非归母净亏 31.8 亿元）。4Q24 公司营收 385 亿元，同比+8.2%， 归母净亏 16.0 亿元（4Q23 归母净亏 18.4 亿元），扣非归母净亏 29.7 亿（4Q23 扣非归母净亏 23.0 亿元）。非经常性收益中，全年因处置土地使用权和固定资 产确认资产处置收益 10.1 亿元、同比持平，全年营业外收入 19.5 亿元（2024 年为 17.9 亿元），主要为收到飞机运营补偿款。 ➢ 坚持价格优先导向，油价同比回落、国泰航空投资收益拉动全年盈利，汇率 贬值拖累盈利。2024 年公司整体座收同比-4.5%，拆分看：国际座收同比-13%， 客公里收益同比-23%，客座率同比+8.1pcts，国际价格降幅过快是主因；国内 座收同比-1.2%，客公里收益同比-10%，客 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for China National Aviation (601111.SH) with a target price of 7.15 CNY, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 166.7 billion CNY for 2024, an increase of 18.1% year-on-year, and a reduced net loss of 240 million CNY compared to a loss of 1.05 billion CNY in 2023 [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the economy and a price-first strategy, despite facing challenges such as currency depreciation and a significant drop in international seat revenue [2][4]. - The company plans to increase its fleet size by a net of 4.3% over the next three years, maintaining its capacity introduction plan [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 166.7 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.1%. The net loss attributable to shareholders was 240 million CNY, a significant improvement from the previous year's loss of 1.05 billion CNY [1][5]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 38.5 billion CNY, up 8.2% year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.6 billion CNY [1]. Revenue and Cost Analysis - The overall seat revenue decreased by 4.5% year-on-year, with international seat revenue dropping by 13% and domestic seat revenue down by 1.2% [2]. - The unit fuel cost decreased by 5.6% year-on-year, but this was offset by a foreign exchange loss of 760 million CNY [2]. Fleet and Capacity - The company plans to add 30 aircraft in 2025, 30 in 2026, and 55 in 2027, primarily focusing on A320 models [3]. - The company is phasing out older aircraft models, such as A320ceo and B737-800, to replace them with newer models [3]. Financial Structure and Outlook - The company's debt-to-asset ratio decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 88.2%, and interest expenses fell by approximately 500 million CNY year-on-year [3]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 3.3 billion CNY, 6.0 billion CNY, and 8.2 billion CNY, respectively, indicating strong growth potential [5][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][15][19] Core Views - The company's performance continues to improve, with a significant reduction in losses for the fourth quarter of 2024, achieving a revenue of 166.699 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of -237 million yuan, indicating a reduction in losses [1][6] - Domestic demand recovery is evident, with passenger transport volume, revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), and available seat kilometers (ASK) increasing by 15.6%, 19.4%, and 12.6% year-on-year, respectively. However, revenue levels are under significant pressure due to excess supply in the industry [2][8] - The company has improved operational efficiency and benefited from falling oil prices, leading to a decrease in unit costs. The unit ASK operating cost was 0.44 yuan, down 6.9% year-on-year, contributing to a gross margin increase of 3.2 percentage points to 28% [3][12] Financial Forecasts and Indicators - The company forecasts revenues of 174.932 billion yuan, 185.139 billion yuan, and 194.767 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected at 4.14 billion yuan, 7.292 billion yuan, and 9.03 billion yuan for the same years [4][17] - Key financial metrics include a projected earnings per share of 0.25 yuan in 2025, 0.44 yuan in 2026, and 0.54 yuan in 2027, with a return on equity (ROE) expected to reach 8.5% in 2025 and 14.2% in 2027 [4][17] - The company plans to introduce 25 new aircraft in 2024, increasing its fleet to 930, with an additional 30 aircraft planned for 2025, although the pace of aircraft introduction is expected to remain low due to manufacturer capacity constraints [3][12]

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, Air China reported a significant recovery in revenue but continued to face net losses, indicating a mixed performance in the aviation sector as demand rebounds but profitability remains challenged [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Air China achieved operating revenue of 166.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 240 million yuan, improving from a loss of 1.05 billion yuan in 2023 [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw operating revenue of 38.55 billion yuan, an 8.2% increase year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.6 billion yuan, also an improvement from a loss of 1.84 billion yuan in the same period of 2023 [1] Operational Metrics - The airline's available seat kilometers (ASK) grew by 21.7% in 2024, with domestic, Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan, and international routes increasing by 5.4%, 39.1%, and 100.5% respectively [2] - Revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) increased by 32.8%, with domestic, Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan, and international routes growing by 15.3%, 48.7%, and 125.7% respectively [2] - The overall passenger load factor reached 79.9%, up 6.6 percentage points year-on-year, with increases across all segments [2] Cost and Expense Management - Operating costs for 2024 were 158.19 billion yuan, an 18.0% increase, but seat kilometer costs decreased by 3.0% [3] - Fuel and non-fuel costs per seat kilometer decreased by 5.6% and 1.7% respectively [3] - Financial expenses were 6.77 billion yuan, a reduction of 690 million yuan year-on-year, with interest expenses down by 490 million yuan [3] Loss Mitigation Factors - The parent company reduced its loss to 240 million yuan in 2024, a significant improvement from a loss of 3.21 billion yuan in 2023, aided by a 2.5 billion yuan investment income from Cathay Pacific [4] - This was offset by increased losses from Shenzhen Airlines and Shandong Airlines, which saw year-on-year losses of 1.09 billion yuan and 1.11 billion yuan respectively [4] Future Outlook - Air China plans a compound annual growth rate of 4.0% for its fleet size from 2024 to 2027, with a total fleet of 930 aircraft by the end of 2024 [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 173.54 billion yuan, 183.14 billion yuan, and 191.84 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to reach 3.10 billion yuan, 7.32 billion yuan, and 11.51 billion yuan [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][12][13] Core Insights - The company reported a significant reduction in losses for 2024, with a net loss of 240 million yuan compared to a loss of 3.21 billion yuan in 2023, indicating improved financial performance [10][12] - The company achieved a revenue of 166.7 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 18.1% year-on-year growth, and is projected to continue growing in the coming years [6][12] - The recovery in overseas capacity and an increase in passenger load factor were noted, although passenger kilometer revenue saw a decline [7][12] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company’s operating revenue was 166.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.1% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was -240 million yuan, a significant improvement from -1.05 billion yuan in the previous year [6][10] - The company’s total passenger load factor reached 79.9%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points year-on-year [7] Cost and Expense Management - Operating costs for 2024 were 158.2 billion yuan, up 18.0% year-on-year, but seat kilometer costs decreased by 3.0% [8] - Financial expenses decreased by 6.9 billion yuan, with interest expenses down by 4.9 billion yuan [8] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 173.7 billion yuan, 183.1 billion yuan, and 191.8 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits expected to be 3.1 billion yuan, 7.3 billion yuan, and 11.5 billion yuan [11][12] - The company plans to increase its fleet size at a compound annual growth rate of 4.0% from 2024 to 2027 [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - China National Airlines reported a significant reduction in losses for 2024, with a net loss of 237 million yuan, a decrease of 77.32% year-on-year, attributed to the accelerated recovery of the civil aviation market and effective cost control measures [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating revenue of 166.699 billion yuan, representing an 18.14% year-on-year increase [1] - Operating costs rose by 18.04% to 158.189 billion yuan, but this was a significant improvement compared to a 61.83% increase in 2023 [1] - The unit cost per seat kilometer decreased by 3.03% to 0.44 yuan, while the overall gross profit margin improved from 5.02% in 2023 to 5.1% in 2024 [1] Operational Metrics - Total transport turnover increased by 32.77%, and passenger numbers rose by 23.8%, with a passenger load factor of 79.85%, up 6.63 percentage points [2] - Fuel costs increased by 14.97% to 53.72 billion yuan, but the growth rate was significantly lower than the 105.27% increase in 2023 [2] - Airline catering costs rose by 38.74% to 4.166 billion yuan, with per capita meal costs increasing from 24 yuan in 2023 to 26.88 yuan in 2024, primarily due to the increase in passenger numbers [2] Subsidiary Performance - Among the nine subsidiaries disclosed, only three reported profits: Ameco (4.01 million yuan), AVIC Finance (0.54 million yuan), and Cathay Pacific (8.801 billion yuan) [3] - Shenzhen Airlines, in which China National Airlines holds a 51% stake, reported the highest loss at 2.813 billion yuan [3] - The financial performance of other subsidiaries varied, with some experiencing significant losses, such as Dalian Airlines, which reported a loss of 34.9 million yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to improve its financial performance in 2024, with a projected reduction in net loss to 240 million yuan, reflecting a decrease in loss by 810 million yuan year-on-year [1][6]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 166.7 billion yuan, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, with passenger revenue contributing 151.8 billion yuan, up 16% year-on-year [3]. - The passenger kilometer yield decreased by 12.4% to 0.534 yuan, with domestic routes yielding 0.537 yuan (down 9.7%), international routes at 0.513 yuan (down 22.6%), and regional routes at 0.649 yuan (down 16.7%) [3]. - The company recorded operating costs of approximately 158.2 billion yuan in 2024, also up 18% year-on-year, with a notable decrease in unit fuel costs by 6% [3]. Operational Metrics - The aircraft utilization rate recovered to 92%, with a daily utilization of 8.9 hours, and the passenger load factor improved to approximately 80%, up 6.6 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - For domestic routes, the available seat kilometers (ASK) increased by 5.4% with a load factor of 81.5%, while international routes saw a 100.5% increase in ASK with a load factor of 76.3% [2]. Fleet Expansion Plans - The company plans to increase its Boeing and Airbus passenger fleet by an average of 3% over the next three years, with a projected fleet size of 926 aircraft by the end of 2024 [2]. - The wide-body aircraft proportion is expected to decrease, with projections indicating a drop to 13.6% by 2027 from 14.7% at the end of 2024 [2]. Cost Management - The company’s selling expense ratio is projected at 4.2%, while the management expense ratio is at 3.3%, reflecting slight changes year-on-year [4]. - Financial expenses decreased to 6.77 billion yuan, primarily due to lower interest expenses and reduced foreign exchange losses [4]. Investment Income - The company reported net investment income of 2.9 billion yuan in 2024, with China National Aviation contributing approximately 2.5 billion yuan [5]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to experience a sustained supply constraint with steady demand growth, leading to a potential reversal in supply-demand dynamics and high profit elasticity [7]. - Projected net profits for the company are estimated at 4.7 billion yuan, 10.1 billion yuan, and 15.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with an upgraded rating to "buy" [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company continues to narrow its losses and is awaiting a recovery in passenger transport [4] - In 2024, the company reported an operating revenue of 166.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -240 million yuan, significantly reducing losses [4] - The passenger transport business shows signs of recovery, with a 21.7% increase in capacity and a 32.8% increase in passenger turnover, totaling 155 million passengers, a year-on-year growth of 23.8% [5] - Cargo performance remains strong, with cargo revenue reaching 7.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.0% [5] - The company expects continued growth in passenger transport in 2025, with projected revenues of 173.5 billion yuan, 185.2 billion yuan, and 196.9 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 4.1%, 6.7%, and 6.3% respectively [7] Financial Summary - The company’s total assets are 345.8 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 88.2% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.22 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34.98 [9] - The company’s EBITDA for 2025 is estimated at 42.5 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.61 billion yuan [9][12] - The company’s operating costs for 2024 were 158.2 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 5.1% [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company continues to narrow its losses and is awaiting a recovery in passenger transport [4] - In 2024, the company reported an operating revenue of 166.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -240 million yuan, significantly reducing losses [4] - The passenger transport business shows signs of recovery, with a 21.7% increase in capacity and a 32.8% increase in passenger turnover, totaling 155 million passengers, a year-on-year growth of 23.8% [5] - Cargo performance remains strong, with cargo revenue reaching 7.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.0% [5] - The company expects continued growth in passenger transport in 2025, with projected revenues of 173.5 billion yuan, 185.2 billion yuan, and 196.9 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 4.1%, 6.7%, and 6.3% respectively [7] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: 7.59 yuan - Total shares: 1.7448 billion, circulating shares: 1.1638 billion - Total market value: 132.4 billion yuan, circulating market value: 88.3 billion yuan - Asset-liability ratio: 88.2% [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s operating revenue was 166.7 billion yuan, with a net profit of -240 million yuan, indicating a significant reduction in losses [4] - The fourth quarter revenue was 38.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, with a net profit of -1.6 billion yuan [4] - The company’s oil costs were 53.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, while non-oil costs reached 104.47 billion yuan, a 19.7% increase [6] Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 3.61 billion yuan, 7.89 billion yuan, and 10.65 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with significant growth rates of 118.4% and 34.9% in subsequent years [7] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.22 yuan, 0.47 yuan, and 0.64 yuan respectively [9]