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中国平安:量价齐升驱动NBV高增,投资端回暖推动利润显著改善
HUAXI Securities· 2024-10-22 10:03
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of 119.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.1%, with Q3 alone showing a remarkable 151.3% increase [1][2] - The company's new business value (NBV) in life and health insurance reached 35.16 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, up 34.1% year-on-year, with Q3 showing a staggering 110.3% increase [2] - The overall combined ratio (COR) for property and casualty insurance improved to 97.8%, a year-on-year optimization of 1.5 percentage points [2] - The annualized comprehensive investment return rate improved to 5.0%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from a recovery in the stock market [3] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects operating revenue of 970.9 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 130.3 billion yuan, and earnings per share (EPS) of 7.16 yuan [4][6] - The projected operating revenue for 2025 and 2026 is 1,035.9 billion yuan and 1,093.6 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 150.8 billion yuan and 170.0 billion yuan [4][6] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve to 13.1% in 2024, 14.0% in 2025, and 14.5% in 2026 [6][8]
中国平安:内外环境整体改善,核心指标全面提速
GF SECURITIES· 2024-10-22 09:12
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - A / Buy - H" with a current price of 56.90 CNY / 49.05 HKD and a reasonable value of 58.55 CNY / 54.87 HKD [2]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, reaching 119.18 billion CNY, which is a year-on-year growth of 34.1% [2][9]. - The growth in net profit was primarily driven by the upward movement in equity markets and some one-time gains, with quarterly growth rates of -4.3%, +20.4%, and +151.3% for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively [2][9]. - The new business value (NBV) for the first three quarters was 35.16 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.1% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Life Insurance - The improvement in value rates and the reduction in new business premium declines contributed to a significant increase in new business value, with a year-on-year growth of 34.1% [3][4]. - The quarterly growth rates for new business value were 20.7%, 0%, and 110.3% for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively, with Q3 showing a substantial recovery [3][4]. - The agent workforce showed a positive trend, reaching 362,000, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.5% [4][6]. Property and Casualty Insurance - The original premium scale for property and casualty insurance reached 239.37 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [8]. - The combined cost ratio improved to 97.8%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating better underwriting profitability [8][9]. Profitability - The company's net profit for the first three quarters was 119.18 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 36.1% [9][11]. - The operating profit also showed a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, with life insurance operating profit growing by 3% and property insurance by 39.7% [9][11]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for EPS is 7.5, 7.6, and 8.0 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a corresponding valuation of 58.55 CNY per share for A-shares [12][13]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory in both insurance service performance and investment performance, with projected net profit growth rates of 58.4%, 2%, and 5.7% for 2024 to 2026 [12][13].
中国平安:2024年三季报点评:NBV提速增长,投资驱动Q3净利润翻倍
Huachuang Securities· 2024-10-22 08:36
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 69.7 CNY, compared to the current price of 56.90 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant increase in net profit in Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 151.3%, driven by a recovery in new business value (NBV) and improved investment returns [1]. - The new business value for the life insurance segment reached 352 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.1% [1]. - The property insurance segment showed stable growth, with a combined ratio (COR) of 97.8%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [1]. - The investment portfolio of the company saw an annualized comprehensive investment return of 5.0%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from a recovery in the equity market [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a total operating profit of 113.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, and a net profit of 119.2 billion CNY, up 36.1% year-on-year [1]. - The life insurance segment's new business value increased by 34.1% year-on-year, while the property insurance segment's service revenue rose by 4.5% year-on-year [1][2]. Business Segments - The life insurance segment's new business value rate improved by 5.7 percentage points to 31.0%, supported by product structure enhancements and adjustments in preset interest rates [1]. - The property insurance segment's COR improved due to a significant reduction in losses from credit insurance [1]. Investment Strategy - The company's investment portfolio grew to over 5.32 trillion CNY, a 12.7% increase from the beginning of the year, with a focus on controlling investment risk exposure [1]. - The annualized net investment return was 3.8%, slightly down by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in long-term interest rates [1]. Future Outlook - The report projects EPS for 2024-2026 to be 6.9, 7.5, and 8.0 CNY respectively, with an expected price-to-earnings value (PEV) of 0.8 times in 2025 [1].
中国平安:2024三季报点评:资产端驱动业绩高增,NBV增长好于预期
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2024-10-22 08:03
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][4]. Core Views - The company's performance is driven by the asset side, with the New Business Value (NBV) growth exceeding expectations, achieving 35.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 119.18 billion yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year, with underwriting and investment service performance growing by 5.7% and 221% respectively, slightly better than expectations [4][5]. - The report predicts NBV growth rates for 2024-2026 to be 24.4%, 12.8%, and 9.4% respectively, corresponding to a group Embedded Value (EV) growth of 6.4%, 3.4%, and 2.0% [4][5]. - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 152.7 billion, 151.5 billion, and 162.8 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a significant increase due to a recovery in equity markets [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the NBV margin increased by 7.3 percentage points to 25.4%, driven by improvements in product structure and a decrease in the preset interest rate [4]. - The company reported a total service income from property and casualty insurance of 246 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with a significant profit increase in the third quarter [4][5]. - Investment service performance reached 83.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 221%, with net investment returns at 3.8% [4][5]. Business Segments - The individual insurance channel saw a year-on-year NBV increase of 31.6%, with agent productivity improving significantly [4]. - The contribution from bancassurance and community finance channels increased, with bancassurance NBV growing by 68.5% year-on-year [4]. - The report highlights the continuous growth in the medical and pension sectors, with a 3.8% increase in personal customer numbers [4][5]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-embedded value (P/EV) ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 0.6, 0.5, and 0.5 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4][5]. - The report notes a current dividend yield of 4.25% [4].
中国平安2024三季报点评:资产端驱动业绩高增,NBV增长好于预期
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2024-10-22 08:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][4]. Core Views - The company's performance is driven by the asset side, with the New Business Value (NBV) growth exceeding expectations, achieving 35.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 119.18 billion yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year, with underwriting and investment service performance growing by 5.7% and 221% respectively, slightly better than expectations [4][5]. - The report predicts NBV growth rates for 2024-2026 to be 24.4%, 12.8%, and 9.4% respectively, corresponding to a group Embedded Value (EV) growth of 6.4%, 3.4%, and 2.0% [4][5]. - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 152.7 billion, 151.5 billion, and 162.8 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a significant increase in the equity market [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the NBV margin increased by 7.3 percentage points to 25.4%, driven by improvements in product structure and a decrease in the preset interest rate [4][5]. - The company’s core business operating profit for the first three quarters was 113.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, with life insurance, property insurance, and banking showing growth rates of 3.3%, 39.7%, and 0.2% respectively [4][5]. Business Segments - The individual insurance channel saw a year-on-year NBV increase of 31.6%, with agent productivity improving significantly [4][5]. - The contribution from the bancassurance and community finance channels reached 18.8% of total NBV, with bancassurance channel NBV growing by 68.5% [4][5]. Investment Performance - The investment services segment reported a revenue of 83.6 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 221%, with net investment returns at 3.8% [4][5]. - The overall investment portfolio exceeded 5.32 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12.7% increase since the beginning of the year [4][5].
中国平安2024年三季报业绩点评:利润显著回暖,核心指标全面改善
Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" with a target price raised to 67.26 CNY per share, compared to the previous forecast of 56.00 CNY [6][12]. Core Insights - The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 36.1% year-on-year, driven primarily by improved investment returns and a one-time gain from the consolidation of Lufax [12]. - The operating profit attributable to the parent company rose by 5.5%, with core segments including life insurance, property insurance, and banking showing growth rates of 3.0%, 39.7%, and 0.2% respectively [12]. - The report highlights a continuous growth in the new business value (NBV) of life insurance, which increased by 34.1% year-on-year, with a remarkable 110.1% growth in Q3 alone [12]. Financial Summary - The company's total revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 1,019,055 million CNY, reflecting a 12% increase from 2023 [13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover to 139,251 million CNY in 2024, a significant increase of 63% compared to 2023 [13]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 7.65 CNY in 2024, up from 5.74 CNY in 2023, representing a growth of 33.2% [12][13]. Investment Performance - The annualized comprehensive investment return rate for the first three quarters of 2024 improved by 1.3 percentage points to 5.0% [12]. - The report notes that the property insurance combined ratio (COR) improved by 1.5 percentage points to 97.8%, attributed to a reduction in underwriting losses from the contraction of guarantee insurance business [12]. Market Position - The company’s market capitalization stands at approximately 1,036,162 million CNY, with a current price of 56.90 CNY per share [7]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at the current price is 12.10, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 1.1 [8][12].
中国平安:2024Q3单季NBV及净利润均同比高增
Guolian Securities· 2024-10-22 06:07
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in NBV and net profit for Q3 2024, with NBV reaching 35.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 34.1%, and net profit amounting to 119.182 billion yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year [11][12] - The operating profit for the same period was 113.818 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [11] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 119.182 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 36.1% [11] - The operating profit for the same period was 113.818 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [12] - The annualized net and comprehensive investment returns were 3.8% and 5.0%, respectively, with improvements noted in the comprehensive investment return [12] Business Segment Performance - The net profit growth across various business segments was as follows: life and health insurance (+35.0%), property insurance (+39.7%), banking (+0.2%), asset management (loss narrowed), and financial empowerment (+475.0%) [12] - The company’s NBV margin improved by 7.3 percentage points to 25.4%, with Q3 2024 showing a 7.9 percentage point increase [12] - The number of agents increased to 362,000, with a year-on-year improvement of 54.7% in per capita NBV [12] Earnings Forecast - The company expects insurance business revenues for 2024-2026 to be 552.3 billion, 584.8 billion, and 620.1 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of +3%, +6%, and +6% [12] - The projected net profits for the same period are 133.5 billion, 150.5 billion, and 172.0 billion yuan, with growth rates of +56%, +13%, and +14% respectively [12]
中国平安:2024年三季报点评:NBV增幅走阔,盈利同比高增
EBSCN· 2024-10-22 05:07
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company [1][8] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in net profit and new business value, with a notable increase in profitability in the third quarter [4][8] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its diversified financial services and strong market position, leading to further improvements in valuation [8] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 775.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.0% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 119.18 billion yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year, with a substantial growth of 151.3% in the third quarter [4] Core Business Growth - The core business segments, including life insurance, property insurance, and financial empowerment, contributed significantly to profit growth [4] - The life insurance segment reported a profit of 80.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.0% [4] Property Insurance - The property insurance service revenue grew by 4.5% to 246.02 billion yuan, with a comprehensive cost ratio improving by 1.5 percentage points to 97.8% [5] Life Insurance - The number of life insurance agents increased by 6.5% quarter-on-quarter, with new business value rising by 34.1% to 35.16 billion yuan [6] - The new business value rate improved by 7.3 percentage points to 25.4% [6] Investment Performance - The annualized comprehensive investment return rate increased by 1.3 percentage points to 5.0% [7] - The annualized net investment return rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.8% due to interest rate fluctuations [7] Banking Sector - The bank's net profit recorded a slight increase of 0.2%, with a non-performing loan ratio slightly decreasing to 1.06% [7] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted upwards to 134.3 billion yuan, 164.7 billion yuan, and 174.1 billion yuan respectively [8] - The current A/H share prices correspond to a price-to-earnings value of 0.70 and 0.56 for 2024 [8]
中国平安:资、负两端均超预期,代理人规模拐点进一步夯实
申万宏源· 2024-10-22 00:38
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ping An Insurance [5] Core Views - The third quarter performance exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 36.1% to 119.18 billion yuan, surpassing the forecast of 34.7% [3][5] - The company's new business value (NBV) growth was also above expectations, increasing by 34.1% year-on-year to 35.16 billion yuan [4][5] - The report highlights improvements in the agent scale and profitability across core business segments, indicating a positive trend [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 56.90 yuan; Market capitalization: 612,395 million yuan; P/B ratio: 1.1; Dividend yield: 5.91% [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 119.18 billion yuan, with a quarterly net profit of 44.56 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 151.3% [3][4] - The operating profit for the same period was 113.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [3] Business Segments - The three core business segments (life insurance, property insurance, and banking) collectively reported a year-on-year operating profit growth of 5.7% [3] - The property insurance segment saw a significant improvement in combined operating ratio (COR), which decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 97.8% [4] Investment Performance - The company reported an annualized net investment return of 3.8% and a comprehensive investment return of 5.0% for the first three quarters of 2024 [4] - Investment assets grew by 12.7% year-to-date, reaching 5.32 trillion yuan [4] Profit Forecast - The report raises profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 147.37 billion yuan, 164.47 billion yuan, and 191.88 billion yuan respectively [5][6]
中国平安前三季度归母净利润同比增长36%
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2024-10-21 23:47
本报记者 冷翠华 A股上市险企2024年首份三季报亮相。 10月21日晚间,中国平安发布2024年三季报。数据显示,今年前三季度,中国平安实现归属于母公司股 东的营运利润1138.18亿元,同比增长5.5%;归属于母公司股东的净利润1191.82亿元,同比增长 36.1%;营业收入7753.83亿元,同比增长10.0%。其中,寿险及健康险、财产保险以及银行三大核心业 务保持增长,三项业务合计归属于母公司股东的营运利润1196.51亿元,同比增长5.7%。 从寿险业务来看,前三季度,平安寿险经营提质增效,高质量发展成果显著。前三季度,寿险及健康险 业务新业务价值达成351.60亿元,同比增长34.1%;按标准保费计算的新业务价值率31.0%,同比上升 5.7个百分点。 从不同业务渠道来看,前三季度,平安寿险代理人渠道新业务价值同比增长31.6%,代理人人均新业务 价值同比增长54.7%,队伍产能有效提升。同时,截至今年9月末,个人寿险销售代理人数量36.2万;新 增人力中"优+"占比提升4个百分点。在银行合作方面,平安寿险深耕网点经营,银保渠道新业务价值同 比增长68.5%。持续推广社区金融服务经营模式,今年前 ...