Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained for both A and H shares [8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.683 billion RMB for 2024, a decrease of 9.21% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million RMB, down 40.80% year-on-year. The Q4 revenue was 678 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 51% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 26% [1][2]. - The company has completed the acquisition of Minsheng Securities and expects to gradually promote integration and synergy in the future [1][5]. Summary by Sections Investment Business Performance - The core revenue source is the investment business, which generated 980 million RMB in 2024, accounting for 36% of total revenue, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21% [2]. - In Q1, the investment business faced significant challenges, resulting in a revenue of -150 million RMB. Q2 and Q3 showed relative stability with revenues of 525 million and 554 million RMB respectively. Q4 revenue dropped to 46 million RMB, down 57% year-on-year and 92% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Brokerage and Asset Management - The brokerage business demonstrated strong resilience, with net income of 720 million RMB for the year, up 39% year-on-year, driven by improved market trading activity. The average daily trading volume for stock funds reached 1.2 trillion RMB, an increase of 23% year-on-year [3]. - The asset management business also performed well, with net income of 660 million RMB, up 49% year-on-year. By year-end, the asset under management (AUM) for the parent company reached 142.5 billion RMB, a 22% increase year-on-year [3]. Investment Banking - The investment banking sector continued to contract in 2024, with the A-share market completing 272 equity financing projects, raising 312.4 billion RMB, a decrease of 70% year-on-year. The company's IPO underwriting scale significantly declined to only 17 million RMB for the year, while refinancing increased by 66% to 2.6 billion RMB [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The acquisition of Minsheng Securities has been completed, but the 2024 report has not yet been consolidated into profit forecasts. The company has adjusted its assumptions for trading volume and margin financing, leading to revised EPS estimates of 0.21, 0.24, and 0.29 RMB for 2025-2027 [5][21]. - The target price is set at 12.08 RMB for A shares and 4.36 HKD for H shares, with a projected price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.8 for A shares and 0.6 for H shares [5][8].

Core Viewpoint - Guolian Minsheng reported a decline in overall performance due to investment income drag, while the wealth management business showed good performance, leading to a "buy" rating from Dongwu Securities [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Guolian Minsheng achieved operating revenue of 2.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 400 million yuan, down 40.8% year-on-year, with an EPS of 0.14 yuan and ROE of 2.2%, a decline of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [1] - In Q4, the company reported operating revenue of 680 million yuan, an increase of 51.3% year-on-year but a decrease of 26.2% quarter-on-quarter; net profit attributable to shareholders was 2 million yuan, turning profitable year-on-year but down 99.5% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Brokerage and Investment Income - In 2024, the brokerage business revenue reached 720 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.4%, accounting for 26.9% of total revenue; Q4 brokerage revenue was 320 million yuan, up 156% year-on-year [2] - Interest net income was -10 million yuan, a decline of 223% year-on-year, primarily due to increased financing scale and decreased other debt investment scale [2] - Investment income (including fair value) was 980 million yuan, down 21.5% year-on-year, mainly due to a decrease in the fair value of derivative financial instruments [3] Group 3: Asset Management and Future Outlook - The asset management business generated revenue of 660 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 49.0%, with assets under management reaching 142.5 billion yuan, up 21.5% year-on-year [3] - The company adjusted its profit forecast, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders of 878 million yuan and 1.007 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 121% and 15% [4] - The company maintains a positive outlook on internal growth and external expansion, sustaining a "buy" rating [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guolian Minsheng [1] Core Views - The overall performance of Guolian Minsheng is impacted by investment income, while the wealth management business shows good performance [1] - The company reported a total revenue of 2,683 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 9.21% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million yuan, down 40.80% year-on-year [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant increase in revenue and a return to profitability in net profit, despite a large decline in net profit compared to the previous quarter [1] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 2,955 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.68% [1] - The projected total revenue for 2024 is 2,683 million yuan, with a forecasted increase to 4,599 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth rate of 71.41% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 671 million yuan, with a projected decline to 397 million yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 878 million yuan in 2025 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.14 yuan, with expectations of 0.15 yuan in 2025 and 0.18 yuan in 2026 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 82.14 for 2024, decreasing to 74.44 in 2025 and further to 64.87 in 2026 [1] Business Segment Performance - Brokerage business revenue increased by 39.4% year-on-year in 2024, accounting for 26.9% of total revenue, with a notable 156% increase in Q4 [1] - Investment banking revenue decreased by 30.7% year-on-year, with a significant drop in equity underwriting [1] - Asset management revenue grew by 49.0% year-on-year, attributed to the opening of Guolian Asset Management and the consolidation of Zhongrong Fund [1] - Investment income, including fair value changes, decreased by 21.5% year-on-year, primarily due to declines in derivative financial instruments [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guolian Securities is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that investment income has negatively impacted performance, but there is optimism regarding the synergistic effects of acquiring Minsheng Securities [4][6] - For 2024, the company reported operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.68 billion and 400 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9% and 41% [4] - The acquisition of Minsheng Securities was completed on January 3, 2025, and the report anticipates positive integration and business synergy effects [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the weighted average ROE was 2.19%, down by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, with an end-of-year leverage ratio (excluding client margin) of 4.4 times, an increase of 0.1 times from the beginning of the year [4] - The brokerage and asset management businesses grew by 39% and 49% year-on-year, while investment banking and investment businesses declined by 31% and 20%, respectively, dragging down overall performance [4] - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 850 million, 1.14 billion, and 1.44 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 115%, 33%, and 26% [4] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a PB ratio of 1.6 for 2025, 1.5 for 2026, and 1.5 for 2027 [4] - The report provides a detailed financial summary, including projected revenues and net profits for the years 2025 to 2027, with expected revenues of 3.78 billion, 4.48 billion, and 5.17 billion yuan, respectively [7][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.683 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 9.2% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million yuan, down 40.8% year-on-year. The weighted average ROE was 2.19%, a decline of 1.70 percentage points year-on-year. In Q4, the revenue was 678 million yuan, an increase of 51.3% year-on-year but a decrease of 26.2% quarter-on-quarter. The main growth drivers for the year were brokerage and asset management [1][4] Summary by Sections Brokerage and Wealth Management - The company added 218,600 wealth management clients in the year, bringing the total to 1.955 million, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%. The total scale of agency sales reached 40.278 billion yuan, up 118.9% year-on-year, with financial product holdings at 20.956 billion yuan, an 8.4% increase year-on-year. The fund advisory business is expanding rapidly, with a year-end advisory scale of 9.238 billion yuan, a 40.1% increase year-on-year [2] Investment Banking - Following the integration of Minsheng Securities, the company's business strength has significantly improved, with a stock underwriting scale of 6.511 billion yuan in 2024, ranking 10th in the industry. The IPO underwriting scale was 3.896 billion yuan, ranking 6th in the industry. The stock market is gradually improving, and if the equity financing market recovers, the investment banking business will positively impact overall performance [3] Self-Investment - The company's TPL asset structure at year-end included bonds at 23.248 billion yuan (61.3%), stocks at 1.976 billion yuan (5.2%), public funds at 4.494 billion yuan (11.9%), and others at 8.203 billion yuan (21.6%). The year-end OCI equity holdings were 5.201 billion yuan, accounting for 10.7% of total financial assets, up from 7.2% at the end of 2023 [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upwards by 9.77% and 9.71%, respectively. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 972 million yuan, 1.102 billion yuan, and 1.251 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 144.6%, 13.4%, and 13.5%. The current stock price corresponds to a PE of 61.48, 54.22, and 47.99, and a PB of 1.12, 1.11, and 1.09 for the respective years [4][5]

投资业务亏损叠加业务管理费增加拖累业绩，经纪、资管、两融业务改善2024Q4 单季度公司调整后营 收/归母净利润分别为6.8/0.02 亿元，同比+51%/扭亏，环比-26%/-99%，经纪业务环比高增符合预期， 衍生品业务浮亏或是主要拖累项，同时业务及管理费计提增加41%也对业绩有负面影响。2024Q4 经 纪、投行、资管、利息净收入、投资收益（含公允价值变动损益）分别为3.2/0.75/1.8/0.3/0.5亿元，同比 +156%/+18%/+18%/扭亏/-44%，环比+169%/-21%/+3%/扭亏/-91%，四季度市场交易量活跃，公司经 纪、资管、利息净收入有所改善，投资业务构成明显拖累，或因衍生品相关业务影响，市场波动影响场 外期权业务。 完成收购民生证券，关注后续整合与业务协同效果（1）公司发行股份并募集配套资金方案于2024 年12 月27 日获证监会核准，2025年1 月3 日完成发行股份收购民生证券的过户，股份数量由28.3 亿股增加至 54.7亿股（发行价格11.17 元/股）。2 月7 日完成公司名称和注册资本的工商变更登记手续，3 月10 日完 成配套募资20 亿元，股份数量增加至 ...

非银金融/证券Ⅱ 国联证券（601456.SH） 投资收益拖累业绩，看好收购民生证券的协同效应 2025 年 03 月 27 日 《业绩符合预期，自营投资收益率回 升—国联证券 2024 三季报点评》 -2024.11.4 《经纪、资管表现亮眼，自营投资拖 累业绩 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.9.2 《发股收购民生证券方案落地，看好 协 同 效 应 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.8.9 高超（分析师） 卢崑（分析师） gaochao1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520050001 lukun@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040002 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/3/26 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 10.95 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 14.66/9.32 | | 总市值(亿元) | 622.02 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 261.61 | | 总股本(亿股) | 56.81 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 23.89 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 130.0 | 股价走势 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guolian Minsheng reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for the year 2024, with net profit dropping by 40.8% and revenue decreasing by 9.21% compared to the previous year [3][4]. Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 397 million yuan, down 40.8% year-on-year [3]. - Total operating revenue for the year was 2.683 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.21% [3]. - Basic earnings per share fell to 0.14 yuan, down 41.67% year-on-year [3]. - The company proposed a cash dividend of 0.56 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 318 million yuan [3]. Business Segments - The main business segments include brokerage and wealth management, investment banking, asset management and investment, credit trading, and securities investment [3]. - The asset management and investment segment saw a revenue increase of 51.36%, reaching 707 million yuan [4]. - The brokerage and wealth management segment generated 982 million yuan in revenue, up 31.21% year-on-year [3]. - Securities investment revenue plummeted by 67.78%, amounting to 217 million yuan [5]. Investment Banking - Investment banking revenue decreased by 34.18% to 340 million yuan [4]. - The company completed 6 equity financing projects with a total underwriting amount of 2.65 billion yuan, including only 1 IPO project [4]. - The total underwriting amount for domestic bond issuance was 40.268 billion yuan, down from 51.581 billion yuan in 2023 [4]. Fund Management - Guolian Minsheng holds a 75.5% stake in Guolian Fund, which had a total asset management scale of 196.196 billion yuan, a growth of 31.88% year-on-year [5]. - Guolian Fund achieved a revenue of 432 million yuan and a net profit of 61.63 million yuan in 2024 [5]. Executive Compensation - The total compensation for the board of directors and senior management was 14.6429 million yuan, a decrease of 15.18% from 17.2625 million yuan in 2023 [5]. - The chairman's salary was halved from 2.88 million yuan in 2023 to 1.4348 million yuan in 2024 [5]. - The highest-paid executive, Vice President Xu Chun, received a salary of 3.51 million yuan, 2.4 times that of the chairman [6].

Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 1.2 billion for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 15%[3]. - Total revenue, net investment income, and other income for 2024 amounted to RMB 4,214,933, a decrease of 3.89% compared to RMB 4,385,566 in 2023[19]. - The company achieved total revenue of RMB 4,214.93 million, a year-on-year decrease of 3.89%[99]. - The brokerage and wealth management segment generated RMB 1,205.41 million in revenue, accounting for 28.60% of total revenue, up from 22.09% in the previous year[149]. - Commission and fee income reached RMB 2,003.86 million, an increase of 11.00% compared to RMB 1,805.29 million in 2023[114]. - The net investment income for 2024 was RMB 976.21 million, down 21.49% from the previous year[122]. - The company's asset management business saw a revenue increase of RMB 217.06 million, growing by 48.98% year-on-year[117]. Profitability - Profit before income tax for 2024 was RMB 372,805, reflecting a significant decline of 54.83% from RMB 825,417 in 2023[19]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was RMB 397,419, down 40.80% from RMB 671,319 in 2023[19]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 397 million, down 40.80% year-on-year[44]. - The group’s retained earnings decreased to RMB 3,529.24 million, down RMB 155.72 million, or 4.23% year-on-year[146]. Assets and Liabilities - Total assets increased to RMB 5 billion, marking a 10% growth from the previous year[3]. - Total assets as of December 31, 2024, reached RMB 97,208,144, representing an 11.57% increase from RMB 87,128,874 in 2023[19]. - Total liabilities increased by 13.41% to RMB 78,260,128 in 2024 from RMB 69,005,316 in 2023[19]. - The total liabilities amounted to RMB 78,260.13 million, reflecting a growth of 13.41% from the end of 2023[100]. - The equity attributable to shareholders increased to RMB 18,584.33 million, up 4.59% from the end of 2023[100]. Market Expansion and Strategy - The company is expanding its market presence in Southeast Asia, targeting a 10% market share within the next two years[3]. - The company has provided a revenue guidance of RMB 1.5 billion for the next fiscal year, projecting a growth rate of 25%[3]. - New product launches are expected to contribute an additional RMB 300 million in revenue, with a focus on innovative financial services[3]. - The company aims to enhance its wealth management services and improve the penetration rate of fund advisory services for retail clients in 2025[49]. - The company aims to expand its research influence and market share in 2025, focusing on enhancing research support for various business sectors and government departments[51]. Risk Management - The company has established a comprehensive risk management system to ensure risks are measurable, controllable, and bearable, supporting long-term value maximization[178]. - The company’s risk management structure includes a board of directors, senior management, and dedicated risk management departments, ensuring effective oversight and governance[179]. - The company has implemented a liquidity risk management mechanism, conducting daily position management and periodic liquidity analysis to ensure sufficient funding availability[190]. - Credit risk is primarily associated with financing activities, including stock repurchase transactions and bond investments, managed through an internal credit rating system[189]. Dividends and Profit Distribution - The company approved a cash dividend of RMB 1.42 per 10 shares, totaling RMB 402,111,789.86 for the fiscal year 2023[196]. - The proposed cash dividend for 2024 is RMB 0.56 per 10 shares, amounting to RMB 318,113,197.14, which represents 80.04% of the net profit attributable to shareholders[198]. - The company has a history of prioritizing cash dividends when conditions allow, ensuring stable and continuous profit distribution[195]. - The company has accumulated undistributed profits of RMB 3,132,880,870.62 as of the latest reporting period[197]. Operational Developments - The company established 3 new securities business departments during the reporting period, including locations in Hangzhou, Cixi, and Shanghai[152]. - The company relocated 7 securities business departments within the same city during the reporting period[153]. - The company aims to enhance its marketing system and integrate financial technology to improve business competitiveness in its margin financing and securities lending operations[88]. Future Outlook - In 2025, the company plans to enhance its market position and core competitiveness by integrating Minsheng Securities and deepening its business capabilities, focusing on wealth management and digital transformation[170]. - The company aims to leverage the recovery window of the M&A market in 2025, focusing on project and personnel layout in M&A activities[69]. - The company plans to enhance its fixed income business by expanding product lines and improving customer service capabilities[98].

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責， 對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何 部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 （股份代號：01456） （於中華人民共和國成立的股份有限公司） 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則》第13.10B條作出。 如下公告已於上海證券交易所網站刊發，僅供參閱。 特此公告。 承董事會命 國聯民生證券股份有限公司 董事長 葛小波 中國江蘇省無錫市 2025年3月26日 截至本公告日期，本公司執行董事為葛小波先生；本公司非執行董事為顧偉先生、 周衛平先生、吳衛華先生、楊振興先生及劉海林先生；及本公司獨立非執行董事為 朱賀華先生、高偉先生及郭春明先生。 证券代码：601456 证券简称：国联民生 公告编号：2025-024 号 国联民生证券股份有限公司 关于预计公司 2025 年度日常关联交易的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 本次日常关联交易事项需提 ...