(责任编辑：徐自立) 中国经济网北京1月5日讯 国联民生(601456.SH)今日收报9.84元，跌幅3.24%。证券板块今日涨 1.47%，国联民生为证券板块唯一一家下跌的公司。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guolian Minsheng Securities initiates coverage on Baiao Saitu (02315) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the robust growth across its three main business segments and the positive impact of the "Thousand Mice and Ten Thousand Antibodies" initiative on financial performance [1] Group 1: Model Animals - The company dominates the humanized mouse market with over 1,700 strains, contributing significantly to revenue, with sales and licensing expected to generate 257 million yuan (94% of revenue) by H1 2025 [1] - The sales of model animals are projected to grow at a CAGR of 51.6% from 2022 to 2024, with increasing customer repurchase rates [1] - By 2024, overseas sales of model animals are expected to account for 56.4%, with a mature U.S. subsidiary facilitating order acquisition [1] Group 2: Preclinical CRO Services - The preclinical CRO services segment, which extends from model animals, has an overseas revenue share of 79%, benefiting from a recovering investment environment [2] - The pharmacology and efficacy team operates across Beijing, Haimen, and the U.S., having completed over 6,350 drug evaluation projects for approximately 950 global partners by H1 2025 [2] - Revenue for this segment reached 155 million yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 90% due to increased client numbers driven by industry growth [2] Group 3: Antibody Molecule Transfer/Authorization - The revenue model based on upfront payments, milestones, and sales sharing allows for significant revenue growth as pipelines advance [3] - The "Thousand Mice and Ten Thousand Antibodies" initiative has created a vast array of antibody combinations, reducing R&D time and uncertainty for pharmaceutical companies [3] - By H1 2025, the company has signed 61 transfer/authorization/co-development projects with renowned pharmaceutical firms, with a projected CAGR of 58.3% for this segment from 2022 to 2024 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guolian Minsheng Securities initiates coverage on Baiaosaitu (02315) with a "recommended" rating, highlighting the company's three major business segments experiencing high growth and industry prosperity, alongside significant financial relief from fundraising efforts as the "Thousand Mice and Ten Thousand Antibodies" plan achieves milestones [1] Group 1: Model Animals - The company dominates the humanized mouse market with over 1,700 strains, contributing significantly to core profits, with a projected sales revenue of 257 million yuan from humanized mice sales and licensing by H1 2025, accounting for 94% of revenue [1] - The sales CAGR for model animals is expected to be 51.6% from 2022 to 2024, with increasing customer repurchase rates [1] - By 2024, overseas sales of model animals are projected to account for 56.4%, with a mature U.S. subsidiary facilitating rapid order acquisition [1] Group 2: Preclinical CRO Services - The preclinical CRO services segment, which extends from model animals, has an overseas revenue share of 79%, with strong growth certainty amid a recovering investment environment [2] - The pharmacology and efficacy team operates across Beijing, Haimen, and the U.S., having completed over 6,350 drug evaluation projects for approximately 950 global partners by H1 2025 [2] - Revenue for this segment reached 155 million yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 90%, driven by industry prosperity and a significant increase in client numbers [2] Group 3: Antibody Molecule Transfer/Authorization - The revenue model based on upfront payments, milestones, and sales sharing allows for stepwise revenue growth as pipelines advance, significantly reducing uncertainty for pharmaceutical companies [3] - The "Thousand Mice and Ten Thousand Antibodies" plan has created a vast array of antibody formats, positioning the company as a potential global source of new drug development [3] - By H1 2025, the company has signed 61 transfer/authorization/co-development projects with renowned pharmaceutical companies, with a projected CAGR of 58.3% for this segment from 2022 to 2024 [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump threatened the acting President of Venezuela, Rodriguez, stating that if she does not act correctly, she may face a heavier price than President Maduro [1] - The Danish Prime Minister urged the U.S. to stop threatening to annex Greenland, asserting that such discussions are meaningless [1] Group 2 - The Chinese automotive exports to Venezuela increased by 130% in the first 11 months of 2025, with passenger car exports rising by 166% and truck exports by 99% [6] - The U.S. government has requested American oil companies to invest heavily in Venezuela to restore its oil extraction infrastructure, indicating a push for revitalization of the oil industry [9] Group 3 - The Ministry of Education in China announced plans to establish 15 new undergraduate higher education institutions [4] - The Ministry of Finance in China stated that the issuance of ultra-long-term general government bonds will start on January 14, 2026 [5] Group 4 - The Shanghai government released a plan with 26 measures to optimize the business environment, focusing on efficient government services and fair market competition [7] - The global protests against U.S. military intervention in Venezuela occurred in various countries, condemning U.S. actions and interventionism [8]

Core Viewpoint - The market profitability is expected to continue recovering in 2026, with liquidity remaining loose, shifting the core market driver from valuation to profitability [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Traditional growth momentum and emerging industries are expected to work in tandem, leading to improved competition in traditional sectors and a rise in domestic inflation [1] - Fiscal policies are anticipated to create new demand in the domestic market, while the resonance of domestic and international technology industries will accelerate capital inflow into emerging sectors [1] Group 2: Industry Structure - The technology sector is projected to maintain absolute returns driven by profit growth, although the gap with consumer, cyclical, and manufacturing sectors will gradually narrow [1] - Despite high profit growth in the technology sector due to expanding capital expenditure in artificial intelligence, the current valuation levels of the tech industry and the overall market show a significant disparity, making further valuation increases challenging [1] - Traditional sectors such as consumer, cyclical, and manufacturing are expected to see a gradual rebound in profit growth, with certain supply-demand balanced industries showing substantial profit elasticity [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - There is increasing market and policy focus on new productive forces, with expectations that more emerging industries will be influenced by domestic policies in 2026, creating additional investment opportunities [1]

经Wind统计，1月5日—9日这周，A股共有37家公司限售股迎来解禁，合计解禁市值超1600亿元。1月5日解禁个股数量最多，达到13股，合计解禁市值超440 亿元。单只个股解禁市值方面，百利天恒居首，解禁市值约为963.19亿元，此外，还有国联民生、建设工业两股解禁市值超百亿元。 从解禁情况来看，1月5日—9日解禁的37股，合计解禁市值约为1624.73亿元。解禁时间上，1月5日共有国联民生、建设工业、云从科技、烽火电子等13股迎 来限售股解禁，合计解禁市值约为444.82亿元；1月6日—9日则分别有8股、9股、6股、1股迎来限售股解禁。 | 开始日期： | 2026-01-05 | T | 截止日期: | 2026-01-09 | T | 证券检索 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | | | | | | | | | 代码 | 7 简称 | | 7 解禁目期 | 7 公告日期 | | | 1 | 688506.SH | 百利天恒 | | 2026-01-06 | 2025-12-26 | | | 2 | 601456.SH | 国联民生 | ...

2025年12月30日，国联民生（601456）发布公告，拟公开挂牌转让所持中海基金33.409%股权，首次挂牌价格不低于经国资备案的评估结果，按中联资产评 估集团的市场法评估，这部分股权价值约1.53亿元。 而国联证券作为中海基金的创始股东，其持股比例从最初的49%降至33.41%，经历了从控股到参股的角色转变。 七年前，国联证券曾试图彻底退出中海基金，2018年2月，国联证券曾挂牌转让中海基金33.41%股权，挂牌底价2.14亿元。公开资料显示，2014-2017年上半 年，国联证券从中海基金获得的分红相当可观；并且当时正处于券商资管向主动管理转型的大背景下，国联证券选择退出的举动令人费解。时代周报报道， 据中海基金内部人员表示，国联证券在公司的存在感较低，与之对应的是大股东中海信托对于公司的发展给予了较多支持，公司的文化也与大股东颇为接 近，而国联证券作为第二大股东某种意义上更类似于财务投资者的角色。但最终这起转让并没有成功。 两年后，国联证券态度突变，又计划从法国洛希尔银行收购25%股权，意图重获控制权。根据2020年9月的计划，收购价格为1.15亿元，若交易完成，国联 证券将持股58.41%，成为控 ...

Core Viewpoint - The RMB exchange rate is expected to trend back to the "6" range in 2026, which could significantly impact the economy, policies, and market logic, marking a shift from 2025 when the exchange rate expectations began to change [1][44]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Assessment - Evaluating whether the RMB is overvalued or undervalued is complex and can yield different conclusions based on various dimensions [3][46]. - The financial market and asset price dimensions suggest that the current appreciation of the RMB may be reasonable, as the US dollar index has dropped over 10% since its peak in January 2025 [3][46]. - The narrowing of the 2-year China-US interest rate differential by approximately 110 basis points since the beginning of the year indicates a decrease in the attractiveness of the RMB as a financing currency [4][47]. Group 2: Trade Dimension - The trade perspective supports the argument for RMB undervaluation, especially given China's strong export performance in recent years [7][51]. - The RMB exchange rate index remains at a relatively low level compared to recent years, despite its appreciation against the US dollar [7][51]. - There is a positive correlation between RMB depreciation and the expansion of bilateral surplus shares, indicating that trade dynamics are closely linked to exchange rate movements [7][51]. Group 3: Inflation Impact - The significant gap between the nominal effective exchange rate and the real effective exchange rate since 2022 reflects lower domestic inflation compared to global levels [11][54]. - The real exchange rate is a crucial indicator of a country's export price competitiveness, with lower real exchange rates generally favoring exports [15][58]. - Maintaining a stable real effective exchange rate while allowing for slight nominal depreciation could help avoid unnecessary trade frictions and manage surpluses effectively [15][58]. Group 4: Central Bank's Role in Exchange Rate Management - Historical patterns suggest that the RMB may experience significant appreciation during periods of US dollar depreciation, with the central bank likely to intervene to maintain stability [17][25]. - The central bank's approach to managing the exchange rate involves a balance of maintaining stability while allowing for necessary adjustments based on market conditions [17][27]. - The central bank has been gradually increasing its efforts to manage the RMB's appreciation, particularly in response to rapid increases in the exchange rate [25][27]. Group 5: Market Impact of Exchange Rate Changes - The market has adapted to the constraints imposed by RMB depreciation on monetary policy and liquidity, with expectations of a shift in sentiment during periods of appreciation [31][33]. - Generally, a normal appreciation of the RMB is associated with economic growth, positively impacting the stock market while potentially putting pressure on the bond market [35][36]. - In contrast, during periods of excessive appreciation, the stock market may underperform due to negative economic impacts, while the bond market could benefit [36][37].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The CPI and PPI data for December 2025 will be released on January 9, with an expected CPI year-on-year growth rate of 0.7% and a PPI year-on-year decline of 1.9% [2] Group 2: Fuel Price Adjustments - The first adjustment of fuel prices in 2026 will occur on January 6, with the previous adjustment on December 22 resulting in a decrease of 170 yuan per ton for gasoline and 165 yuan per ton for diesel [3] Group 3: Childcare Subsidies - The childcare subsidy application will open on January 5, 2026, following an upgrade and testing of the information management system from January 1 to January 4 [4] - As of now, over 24 million people have received childcare subsidies across 31 provinces, with an issuance rate of approximately 80% for the 2025 fiscal year [5] Group 4: International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) - The 2026 CES will commence on January 6 in Las Vegas, featuring major tech companies and emerging players from China, including companies like Zhiyuan Robotics and Songyan Power, which will showcase their products for the first time [6] Group 5: Stock Market Developments - A total of 36 restricted stocks will be unlocked from January 5 to January 9, with a total market value exceeding 160 billion yuan [7] - Among these, 16 stocks will have a market value of over 1 billion yuan, with companies like Baili Tianheng and Guolian Minsheng exceeding 10 billion yuan in unlock value [8] Group 6: New Stock Opportunities - Two new stocks will be issued next week, namely Zhixin Co. on the Shanghai main board and Kema Materials on the Beijing Stock Exchange [12]

Group 1 - A total of 36 stocks will be unlocked next week, with a combined market value exceeding 160 billion yuan [1][2] - Among the unlocked stocks, 16 have a market value exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Baili Tianheng, Guolian Minsheng, and Jianshe Industrial exceeding 10 billion yuan [2] - Baili Tianheng has the highest unlock market value at 96.319 billion yuan, with 298.1 million shares being unlocked, accounting for 72.2% of the total share capital [2][5] Group 2 - Guolian Minsheng has an unlock market value of 18.008 billion yuan, with 1.771 billion shares being unlocked, involving 43 shareholders [2][3] - Jianshe Industrial has an unlock market value of 16.895 billion yuan, with 629.9 million shares being unlocked, accounting for 60.98% of the total share capital [3][5] - Six stocks have an unlock ratio exceeding 30%, including Baili Tianheng and Jianshe Industrial [6]