Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 54.6 yuan for 2026 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 156.785 billion to 177.689 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 70% [2][6]. - The third quarter of 2025 is projected to yield a net profit of 115.854 billion to 136.758 billion yuan, indicating a quarterly growth rate of 75% to 106% [6]. - The significant growth in profits is primarily driven by increased equity investments, with the company actively seizing market opportunities [6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2024: 528.567 billion yuan - 2025E: 597.961 billion yuan - 2026E: 538.228 billion yuan - 2027E: 581.141 billion yuan - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2024: 106.935 billion yuan - 2025E: 176.476 billion yuan - 2026E: 114.417 billion yuan - 2027E: 137.478 billion yuan - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: 3.78 yuan - 2025E: 6.24 yuan - 2026E: 4.05 yuan - 2027E: 4.86 yuan - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)**: - 2025E: 6.8 [2][6][7]. Investment Strategy - The company has increased its allocation to equity assets, with stocks rising by 1.12 percentage points to 8.7% and funds increasing by 0.28 percentage points to 4.92%, making a total equity asset allocation of 13.62% [6]. - The report highlights the company's strategy of flexible asset allocation to capture structural market opportunities, with total investment assets reaching 7.13 trillion yuan as of mid-2025, a 7.8% increase from the previous year [6][7].

Group 1 - Hong Kong insurance stocks experienced a significant increase on October 21, with China Life (02628.HK) rising by 5.44% to HKD 24.8 [1] - New China Life (01336.HK) saw a gain of 3.68%, reaching HKD 50.1 [1] - Ping An Insurance (02318.HK) increased by 2.67%, trading at HKD 55.75 [1] - China Pacific Insurance (02328.HK) rose by 2.35%, with a price of HKD 19.19 [1]

当前资本市场回暖背景下，保险资金加大权益资产配置力度的趋势明显。华泰证券指出，近年来在"推 进中长期资金入市"政策引导下，险企积极把握权益市场机会，主动提升股票与基金配置比例。以中国 人寿为例，其2025年上半年股票+基金合计配置规模较去年同期增长约36%，且FVTPL类股票占比较 高，在股市上涨环境中更具业绩弹性，有望持续受益于资本市场结构性行情。 场内ETF方面，截至2025年10月21日 10:05，中证港股通非银行金融主题指数强势上涨3.05%，港股通非 银ETF(513750)上涨3.40%。前十大权重股合计占比79.88%，其中中国人寿上涨6.72%，中国太平上涨 4.66%，新华保险、中信建投证券等个股跟涨。 规模方面，截至2025年10月20日，港股通非银ETF最新规模达207.78亿元。资金流入方面，拉长时间 看，港股通非银ETF近5个交易日内有3日资金净流入，合计"吸金"9.62亿元。 近期，非银金融板块三季报业绩预告密集发布，整体表现超预期。近日，新华保险发布业绩预增公告 称，经初步测算，公司2025年前三季度实现归属于母公司股东的净利润预计为299.86亿元至341.22亿 元，与20 ...

大金融板块持续拉升，证券、保险、多元金融方向领涨，瑞达期货、鲁信创投涨停，天风证券涨超 7%，长江证券、中国人寿、中国太保跟涨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong insurance stocks experienced a collective surge, with notable increases in share prices for major companies in the sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China Life Insurance led the gains with an increase of over 4% [1] - China Pacific Insurance rose by 3.5% [1] - New China Life Insurance saw a rise of 2.6% [1] - Other companies such as New China Life, Ping An Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, and AIA Group all recorded increases of over 2% [1]

第三，今年迄今，小摩观察到客户对无风险资产人寿保单的需求强劲，受分销渠道强化支持。这预期将 推动责任准备金加速增长及保险盈利提升。此外，小摩预期政府对保障业务增长进一步政策支持，包括 健康保险及私人养老金，并可能于年底增加税务优惠。在小摩看来，国寿将成为这些发展的主要受益 者。 摩根大通发布研报称，中国人寿（601628）(02628)发布了2025年前九个月强劲的盈利预喜，净利润为 1,568亿至1,777亿元人民币，按中国企业会计准则(ASBE)计算，同比增长50%至70%。小摩预期，市场 将对此公告作出正面反应，特别是盈利预喜仅于业绩公布前10天发布;维持顶级"增持"评级，基本面仍 有上行空间，如股息预期上调、更快责任准备金增长潜力，以及政府政策支持;采用2026财年8倍市盈 率，目标价31港元。 展望未来，小摩识别国寿三项基本面催化剂，伴随其强劲的盈利势头。首先，小摩看到2025财年共识每 股股息0.7元人民币(同比增长7.9%)有上调空间，等同约4%收益率。其次，国寿是少数未完全采用市值 估值计算偿付能力的保险公司之一。凭借强劲盈利及稳健资本状况，公司有潜力进行首度股份回购，管 理层于今年上半年业绩 ...

第三，今年迄今，小摩观察到客户对无风险资产人寿保单的需求强劲，受分销渠道强化支持。这预期将 推动责任准备金加速增长及保险盈利提升。此外，小摩预期政府对保障业务增长进一步政策支持，包括 健康保险及私人养老金，并可能于年底增加税务优惠。在小摩看来，国寿将成为这些发展的主要受益 者。 小摩认为，中国政府对保险行业的改革议程，将越来越多地惠及国有大型保险公司(如国寿)，因为它们 是市场最大参与者，并正摆脱业务低效率。尽管如此，代理业务复苏及责任准备金结构改善，应仍是长 期关键基本面驱动力。小摩视对参与型保单的持续推进持看好态度，尤其是在债券收益率下降的背景 下。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，中国人寿(02628)发布了2025年前九个月强劲的盈利预喜，净 利润为1,568亿至1,777亿元人民币，按中国企业会计准则(ASBE)计算，同比增长50%至70%。小摩预 期，市场将对此公告作出正面反应，特别是盈利预喜仅于业绩公布前10天发布;维持顶级"增持"评级， 基本面仍有上行空间，如股息预期上调、更快责任准备金增长潜力，以及政府政策支持;采用2026财年8 倍市盈率，目标价31港元。 展望未来，小摩识别国寿三 ...

10月19日，中国人寿保险股份有限公司（以下简称"中国人寿"，股票代码：601628.SH，2628.HK）发 布2025年前三季度业绩预增公告。 经初步测算，2025年前三季度，中国人寿预计实现归属于母公司股东的净利润约人民币1567.85亿元到 人民币1776.89亿元，与2024年同期相比，将增加约人民币522.62亿元到人民币731.66亿元，同比增长约 50%到70%。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） ...

Core Viewpoint - The three listed insurance companies in China have announced significant profit growth forecasts for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by improved equity investment returns and favorable market conditions [5][6]. Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - China Life Insurance expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 156.8-177.7 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50%-70%. The estimated net profit for Q3 2025 is projected to be 115.9-136.8 billion yuan, with a growth of 75%-106% [5]. - New China Life Insurance anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 29.99-34.12 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 45%-65%. The Q3 2025 net profit is expected to be 15.2-19.3 billion yuan, with a growth of 58%-101% [5]. - China Pacific Insurance forecasts a net profit of 37.5-42.8 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 40%-60%. The estimated Q3 2025 net profit is projected to be 13-18.3 billion yuan, with a growth of 57%-122% [5]. Group 2: Performance Drivers - The strong earnings growth is attributed to a recovery in the stock market, which has significantly boosted equity investment returns. The CSI 300 Index rose by 17.9% in Q3, an increase of 1.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year [6]. - As of the end of September, the yield on 10-year government bonds increased by 21 basis points compared to the end of June, which is expected to positively impact China Life's service fees in Q3 [6]. - New China Life's acquisition of a stake in Hangzhou Bank is anticipated to contribute positively to its financial results due to a change in accounting treatment for the investment [6]. - China Pacific Insurance benefits from a reduction in the impact of major disasters and improvements in its non-auto insurance segment, leading to enhanced underwriting profits [6]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Trends - As of the end of H1 2025, the total stock investment of five major listed insurance companies reached 1.8 trillion yuan, a growth of 28.9% from the beginning of the year, with stock investments now accounting for 9.3% of total investment assets, an increase of 1.5 percentage points [7]. - The proportion of total invested assets in TPL stocks for these companies is 5.6%, up by 0.3 percentage points from the start of the year, indicating a significant increase in asset flexibility [7]. - New China Life's stock investment proportion is 8.9%, while China Life's is 6.7%, both showing increases from the beginning of the year, suggesting a trend towards higher equity exposure among insurance firms [7].

整体来看，分红实现率表现优于上一年度，较2023年度分红实现率集中在25%—50%的情况有大幅改 善，还有不少在售产品的红利实现率甚至超过了100%。 当前，存款利率持续走低，兼具"保证利益"与"红利分配"的分红型保险产品逐渐成为市场新宠，各大险 企纷纷转型分红险赛道。作为检验分红险产品收益高低的核心指标，分红实现率向来备受保险消费者关 注。随着分红险分红实现率披露接近尾声，各家险企成绩单也一并出炉。10月20日，北京商报记者梳理 了各家险企最新的分红险分红实现率，一探究竟。 红利实现率有所回暖 随着银行存款利率的持续走低，人身险产品预定利率一降再降，分红险的"保底收益+浮动收益"模式在 当前环境下优势凸显。在购买分红险过程中，消费者最关心的是分红实现率，也称作红利实现率。 分红险红利实现率是衡量分红型保险产品实际分红与演示预期之间匹配程度的指标，计算方式为分红期 间实际派发的红利金额除以销售利益演示红利。 也就是说，如果分红实现率高于100%，则意味着相关产品的分红情况好于销售时的演示情况。 当前，分红险分红实现率披露已经接近尾声，10月20日，据北京商报记者不完全统计，目前已有超70家 人身险公司披露了2 ...