Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The social service sector's institutional holdings are at historical lows, with signs of stabilization in the hotel and employment sectors. The CPI's recovery in October reflects a warming consumer market. The report suggests focusing on "domestic demand cyclical + quality new consumption" [4][10]. - Recommended companies include Huazhu Group, Miniso, Guoquan, Green Tea Group, and Laopu Gold, which show continuous operational improvement and high valuation cost-effectiveness [4][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Tracking: Institutional Holdings at Historical Lows - The social service sector has underperformed the market by 9.78% year-to-date, with a year-to-date increase of 11.40% as of November 10, 2025. The sector ranks 19th among 31 primary industries [13]. - The fund holding ratio for the social service sector is 0.46%, down 0.64 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating historical lows [17]. - October CPI data shows a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, signaling a recovery in consumer spending [22]. 2. Sub-industry Analysis: Industry Fundamentals Stabilizing - Employment: The hiring confidence index has improved, with values rising from 44.07 in August to 54.87 in October 2025 [29]. - Hotels: The RevPAR growth rate has shown improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% in the 44th week of 2025 [39]. - Duty-Free: The new duty-free policy in Hainan has led to a significant increase in shopping amounts, with a total of 5.06 billion yuan in sales during the first week of implementation [50]. - Dining: The pressure on customer spending appears to have eased, with service prices showing an upward trend [52]. 3. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Marginal Changes - The report emphasizes the importance of marginal changes and suggests actively investing in cyclical and new consumption leaders. Recommended companies include Huazhu Group, Miniso, Guoquan, Green Tea Group, and Laopu Gold, with a focus on those showing clear improvement trends [10][54].

数据宝统计，截至14:06，中国中免成交额107.50亿元，创上市以来新高。最新股价上涨4.26%，换手率 6.19%。上一交易日该股全天成交额为76.87亿元。 据天眼查APP显示，中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司成立于2008年03月28日，注册资本206885.9044万 人民币。（数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

每经AI快讯，11月11日，中国中免A股成交额达100亿元，现涨5.13%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，11月11日，免税店概念午后冲高，中国中免拉升涨超5%，广百股份、中百集团、步步 高、王府井、供销大集、南宁百货、友好集团等跟涨。 ...

中国中免A股成交额达100亿元，现涨5.13%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rise in the duty-free concept stocks in the A-share market, indicating positive market sentiment towards this sector [1] Group 2 - China Duty Free Group saw its stock price increase by over 7% [1] - Dongbai Group's stock reached the daily limit, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Other companies such as Zhongbai Group, Bubugao, and Wangfujing also experienced stock price increases, reflecting a broader trend in the duty-free sector [1]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations in the early session, with the three major indices opening high but closing lower, particularly the ChiNext index which fell over 1% [1] - By the end of the morning session, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.38%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.52%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.74% [1] Sector Performance - The photovoltaic sector saw a collective surge, with stocks like GCL-Poly Energy and Trina Solar hitting the daily limit [1] - The lithium battery sector strengthened again, with Yongtai Technology achieving two limit-ups in three days [1] - The superhard materials sector experienced rapid gains, with Sifangda and Huanghe Whirlwind both reaching the daily limit [1] - The food and beverage sector showed localized activity, with Sanyuan Foods achieving two consecutive limit-ups [1] Declines - The coal sector faced significant declines, with Antai Group experiencing a sharp drop [2] Trading Volume - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.26 trillion yuan, a decrease of 184.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [3] Individual Stock Highlights - Sunshine Power led in trading volume with over 11.1 billion yuan, followed by Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyisheng, and China Duty Free [4]

Summary of China Tourism Group Duty Free Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888.SS, 601888 CG) - **Industry**: Consumer sector in China/Hong Kong - **Market Capitalization**: Rmb161,767 million - **Current Stock Price**: Rmb78.99 (as of Nov 7, 2025) - **Price Target**: Rmb66.00, indicating a downside of 16% from the current price [6][6][6] Key Takeaways Sales Performance - **Hainan Offline Duty-Free Sales**: Increased by 35% year-over-year (YoY) in early November 2025, reaching Rmb506 million with 73,000 shoppers [9][9][9] - **Growth Drivers**: The growth is attributed to a lower base effect, increased electronics sales, and a new policy allowing local residents to purchase duty-free items [9][9][9] - **Historical Context**: Daily duty-free sales in November are typically 40% higher than in September, suggesting potential for continued growth in November 2025 [9][9][9] Financial Projections - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Projected EPS for 2025 is Rmb2.23, with estimates increasing to Rmb3.09 by 2027 [6][6][6] - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected net revenue for 2025 is Rmb54,387 million, with growth anticipated to Rmb66,525 million by 2027 [6][6][6] - **Valuation Metrics**: - P/E ratio for 2026 is estimated at 24x, which is 1 standard deviation below the average since 2017 [10][11][11] - Dividend yield projected to increase from 1.4% in 2025 to 2.0% by 2027 [6][6][6] Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: - Favorable policy outcomes for Hainan Free Trade Zone and downtown duty-free shopping [13][14][14] - Improvement in consumer spending, particularly in beauty and luxury products [13][14][14] - **Downside Risks**: - Overall economic slowdown affecting disposable income [13][14][14] - Price competition among various retail channels [13][14][14] - Insufficient supply of luxury products [13][14][14] Market Sentiment - **Analyst Rating**: The stock is rated as Equal-weight, indicating a neutral outlook compared to the market [6][6][6] - **Investor Day**: An upcoming investor day in Sanya, Hainan, is expected to provide further insights into the company's development and management's outlook [9][9][9] Conclusion China Tourism Group Duty Free is experiencing a significant rebound in sales, particularly in Hainan, driven by favorable policies and consumer behavior. However, the company faces challenges from economic uncertainties and competitive pressures. The stock is currently rated as Equal-weight, with a price target suggesting a potential decline from current levels. Investors should monitor upcoming events and market conditions closely.

Group 1 - The retail sector experienced an initial surge on November 11, with notable performances from several companies [1] - Dongbai Group achieved a consecutive two-day increase, while Zhejiang Dongri hit the daily limit [1] - Other companies such as Guoguang Chain, Zhongbai Group, Youa Shares, Gongxiao Daji, and China Duty Free also saw their stock prices rise [1]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery, driven by favorable policies, rising CPI, and the imminent closure of Hainan Free Trade Port, leading to increased investment enthusiasm in the sector [2][4]. Group 1: Consumer Sector Analysis - The consumer sector is believed to be at the bottom, with fundamentals gradually improving, as indicated by the third-quarter reports [4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of consumption, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [4]. - Key investment opportunities include the restaurant chain sector, which is nearing the end of price wars, and companies like Anjiexin Foods and Lihai Foods are seeing improved net profit margins [4]. Group 2: Duty-Free Industry Insights - Hainan's duty-free sales data shows a significant recovery in Q3 2025, with a notable increase in average transaction value, and a stable outlook for Q4 [5]. - Continuous policy support, including a clear timeline for the island's closure and an expanded range of duty-free products, is expected to enhance the operational conditions for companies like China Duty Free Group and Hainan Development [5]. Group 3: Structural Upgrades in Consumption - The toy industry is evolving with IP incubation and category innovation, favoring leading companies with strong design and supply chain capabilities [6]. - The beauty industry is integrating medical, beauty, and health services, which is expected to enhance customer spending and repeat purchases [6]. - The consumer industry is transitioning from "functional supply" to "scenario value supply," indicating a structural upgrade in brand consumer goods [6]. Group 4: New Consumption Trends - Four new consumption themes are emerging: 1. Brand globalization 2.0, focusing on pricing power and emerging markets [7]. 2. Emotional value sectors like trendy toys and pet products are expected to benefit from rising GDP per capita [7]. 3. AI-driven consumption in service sectors is showing potential for profitability [7]. 4. Channel transformation emphasizing user experience and operational efficiency, particularly in instant retail and cost-effective dining [7]. Group 5: High-Growth Opportunities in Emotional Consumption - The gold and jewelry sector is undergoing significant changes, with rising gold prices and a shift towards emotional consumption, suggesting opportunities in high-end and trendy gold segments [8]. - Retail e-commerce is focusing on offline retail transformation and AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce leaders [8]. - The cosmetics sector is seeing growth in domestic brands that meet emotional value and safety ingredient innovation [8]. - The medical beauty sector remains resilient, with opportunities in differentiated products and mergers in downstream medical beauty institutions [8].