中国中免（601888）(01880)尾盘涨超3%，截至发稿，涨2.42%，报78.45港元，成交额3.33亿港元。 消息面上，国元国际研报指出，2026年元旦假期作为海南自贸港全岛封关后的首个小长假，旅游市场迎 来"开门红"。全省接待游客217.16万人次，按可比口径同比增长25.2%；实现旅游总收入31.36亿元，同 比增长28.9%，收入增速高于人次增速3.7个百分点，显示消费结构持续优化。离岛免税、入境旅游等领 域表现突出，该行认为封关政策的红利与多元化产品供给将共同推动海南旅游市场进入高质量发展新阶 段。 瑞银发布研报称，据海口海关数据显示，海南1月1至3日免税销售同比增长129%至7.12亿元，免税购物 人次按年增加61%。该行估算人均免税消费额为8527元，按年上升42.5%；而购买商品数量亦按年增长 52.4%。所有数据均胜市场预期。瑞银认为，销售增长强劲主要由于海南在去年10月放宽了当地居民及 离境旅客于海南免税店的购物政策限制，推动购物人流增长。 ...

Group 1 - China Duty Free Group (中国中免) shares rose over 3% and were trading at 78.45 HKD with a transaction volume of 333 million HKD [1] - The tourism market in Hainan experienced a strong start during the New Year holiday, with 2.1716 million visitors, a year-on-year increase of 25.2% [1] - Total tourism revenue reached 3.136 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.9%, indicating an improvement in consumer spending patterns [1] Group 2 - Duty-free sales in Hainan from January 1 to 3 saw a significant increase of 129% to 712 million CNY, with the number of shoppers rising by 61% year-on-year [1] - The estimated per capita duty-free spending was 8,527 CNY, up 42.5% compared to the previous year, with the quantity of purchased items increasing by 52.4% [1] - The strong sales growth is attributed to the relaxation of shopping policy restrictions for local residents and departing travelers in October of the previous year, which boosted shopper traffic [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Hainan's duty-free sales from January 1 to 3 increased by 129% year-on-year to 712 million yuan, with the number of duty-free shoppers rising by 61% [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Duty-free sales growth is attributed to the relaxation of shopping policy restrictions for local residents and departing travelers in Hainan since October last year [1] - The average duty-free spending per person is estimated at 8,527 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 42.5% [1] - The quantity of purchased items also saw a year-on-year growth of 52.4%, indicating strong consumer demand [1] Group 2: Product Categories and Government Support - The increase in average spending is driven by luxury categories such as clothing, footwear, handbags, jewelry, and mobile phones [1] - Local government continues to provide subsidies for duty-free shopping, further stimulating consumer spending [1] Group 3: Investment Outlook - UBS maintains a positive outlook on China Duty Free Group's A-shares and H-shares, setting target prices at 99.59 yuan and 90.73 Hong Kong dollars, respectively, with a "buy" rating [1] - The firm is also optimistic about Shanghai Airport, as new contracts may lead the company back to a high growth trajectory, with no significant capital expenditures expected, which could improve return on equity [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [6][10]. Core Insights - The company has secured the operating rights for the T3 duty-free store at Beijing Capital Airport, which is expected to enhance profitability despite a reduction in operational area compared to the previous round [7][10]. - The first-year guaranteed fee for the duty-free store is approximately 480 million RMB, with a sales commission starting at 5% and increasing by 1% annually after the first year [7][10]. - The company anticipates a long-term positive impact on profits due to the high volume of international travelers at T3, which accounts for over 80% of the airport's international passenger traffic [10]. - The report highlights a significant increase in duty-free sales in Hainan, with a 14.9% year-on-year growth in sales from September to November, and a 54.9% increase in the first week of the Hainan closure [10]. - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 3.72 billion, 4.55 billion, and 5.17 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a recovery in duty-free sales and inbound/outbound travel [10][12]. Summary by Sections Company Information - The company operates in the leisure services industry, with a current A-share price of 90.29 RMB and a market capitalization of approximately 176.29 billion RMB [2]. - Major shareholder is China Tourism Group, holding 50.30% of the shares [2]. Recent Ratings - The company has had a series of ratings, with the most recent being "Buy" on December 18, 2025, following a series of "Trading Buy" ratings earlier in the year [3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 5.03 billion RMB in 2022, with projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 showing a recovery trend in profitability [12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 1.80 RMB in 2025 to 2.50 RMB in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 50, 41, and 36 [12]. Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from the recovery of international travel and duty-free shopping, with supportive policies expected to enhance long-term growth prospects [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the target price adjustments made by brokerages for listed companies, with significant increases noted for certain firms [1] - The companies with the highest target price increases include Anhui Construction, China Duty Free Group, and Yaxing Anchor Chain, with target price increases of 50.75%, 25.15%, and 23.22% respectively, indicating strong performance expectations in the infrastructure, tourism retail, and marine equipment sectors [1] - On the downside, only one company, Jujie Microfiber, had its rating downgraded by CITIC Securities from "Buy" to "Hold," reflecting a cautious outlook for this particular firm [1]

Group 1 - The duty-free shop concept index declined by 1.08%, ranking among the top declines in concept sectors, with Hainan Development hitting the limit down, and Hainan Airport, and Caesar Travel Industry also experiencing significant declines [1] - Among the duty-free shop concept stocks, 13 stocks saw price increases, with China Merchants Shekou, Dongbai Group, and Tibet Zhufeng leading the gains at 4.40%, 3.20%, and 1.99% respectively [1] - The duty-free shop sector experienced a net outflow of 1.51 billion yuan from main funds, with 19 stocks seeing net outflows, and 5 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan in outflows, led by China Duty Free Group with a net outflow of 606 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The top gainers in today's concept sectors included brain-computer interfaces at 13.70%, high-pressure oxygen chambers at 7.01%, and blood oxygen monitors at 5.65%, while the Hainan Free Trade Zone and duty-free shop concepts saw declines of 2.93% and 1.08% respectively [2] - The main funds saw significant inflows into stocks such as China Merchants Shekou, Dongbai Group, and Shanghai Port Group, with net inflows of 78.56 million yuan, 64.29 million yuan, and 29.35 million yuan respectively [2] - The duty-free shop concept stocks with the largest net outflows included China Duty Free Group, Hainan Development, and Hainan Airport, with net outflows of 606.9 million yuan, 566.7 million yuan, and 186.1 million yuan respectively [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after the full closure of Hainan, the cultural and tourism market is experiencing explosive growth characterized by "duty-free consumption explosion, surge in inbound tourist flow, and upgrade in tourism transportation" [1] - The report suggests focusing on stocks related to leading duty-free operators, tourism transportation hubs, and local cultural tourism operators in Hainan, specifically mentioning China Duty Free Group (01880) and Meilan Airport (00357) [1] Group 2 - During the New Year holiday, domestic travel in China reached 142 million trips with total spending of 84.789 billion yuan, while Hainan welcomed 2.1716 million tourists, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%, and total tourism revenue of 3.136 billion yuan, up 28.9% [2] - The inbound tourism market in Hainan saw a "explosive growth" with a fivefold increase in ticket orders for Sanya and nearly threefold for Haikou, with Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam, and Australia being the main sources of inbound tourists [2][3] - The duty-free sales during the New Year holiday reached 712 million yuan, a staggering increase of 128.9%, with the average spending per customer rising to 8,527 yuan, indicating strong consumer enthusiasm driven by policy optimization and promotional activities [3]

国元国际主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，国元国际发布研报称，海南全岛封关后，文旅市场呈现"免税消费爆发+入境客流激 增+旅游交通升级"的爆发式增长态势，直接利好离岛免税龙头、旅游交通枢纽、海南本地文旅运营商 三类股票标的，建议关注注中国中免(01880)与美兰空港(00357)。 文旅部数据显示，元旦假期全国国内出游1.42亿人次，总花费847.89亿元 国家级夜间文化和旅游消费集聚区累计夜间客流量4271.82万人次。短途出游成为主流，城市本地休 闲、近程旅游和周边游热度高。值得注意的是，元旦期间海南全省接待游客217.16万人次，与2025年同 比增长25.2%；旅游总花费31.36亿元，同比增长28.9%。随着海南国际航线网络持续加密，覆盖亚欧多 个重点区域，叠加多平台涉外营销推广，元旦入境旅游市场实现"爆发式增长"。1月1日数据显示，三亚 入境游机票订单量同比增幅达5倍，海口增长近3倍，增速位列全国前两位。马来西亚、泰国、韩国、越 南、澳大利亚成为主要入境客源地，国际游客的持续涌入丰富了海南旅游客源结构。同时受到受海南自 贸港封关政策预期带动，"购物+度假"成主流模式，中海旅免税城周边酒店入住率同 ...

Group 1 - The tourism market in Hainan is experiencing explosive growth following the island's closure policy, characterized by a surge in duty-free consumption, increased inbound tourist flow, and upgrades in travel transportation [1][3] - During the New Year holiday, Hainan received 2.1716 million tourists, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%, with total tourism revenue reaching 3.136 billion yuan, up 28.9% [2][3] - The duty-free sales during the New Year holiday reached 712 million yuan, a staggering increase of 128.9% year-on-year, with the average spending per customer rising to 8,527 yuan [3] Group 2 - The inbound tourism market saw a fivefold increase in ticket orders for Sanya and nearly threefold for Haikou, ranking them as the top two cities in the country for growth [2][3] - The average occupancy rate of operating accommodation units in Hainan reached 79.01%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong demand in the tourism sector [2][3] - The expansion of international flight networks and the optimization of duty-free policies are expected to drive high-quality development in Hainan's tourism market [3]

Group 1 - The Free Trade Port concept declined by 0.94% as of the market close on January 5, ranking among the top declines in concept sectors [1] - Within the Free Trade Port sector, Haikou Airport, Hainan Rui Ze, and Antong Holdings experienced significant declines, while 20 stocks saw price increases, with Waigaoqiao, Milkewei, and Shanghai Jianke leading the gains at 7.04%, 4.02%, and 2.88% respectively [1][2] - The Free Trade Port sector saw a net outflow of 1.833 billion yuan in main funds today, with 33 stocks experiencing net outflows, and 6 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 100 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The top net outflow stock was China Duty Free, with a net outflow of 606 million yuan, followed by Hainan Airport, Haima Automobile, and HNA Holding with net outflows of 186 million yuan, 172 million yuan, and 160 million yuan respectively [2][3] - Conversely, the stocks with the highest net inflow included Shanghai Port Group, Jinjiang Online, and Wanlin Logistics, with net inflows of 29.35 million yuan, 27.07 million yuan, and 11.41 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The Free Trade Port sector's outflow list included China Duty Free, Hainan Airport, Haima Automobile, and HNA Holding, all showing significant declines in stock prices [3]