该行表示对海南旅游零售业前景持正面看法，支持因素包括宏观经济正逐步复苏、积极的财富效应、销 售商品种类扩张及政策支持等，目前预测中国中免去年第四季收入、经营利润及净利润将分别同比增长 19%、92%及135%，但预期全年收入及盈利将同比下跌1%及9%。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，预计2026年海南免税市场将同比增长25%至30%，推动中 国中免(01880)盈利增长44%。该行指出，中免H股现价对应2026年预测市盈率约26倍，经历近期升浪后 估值水平似乎合理，建议投资者等待更佳时机入市，给予"与大市同步"评级，目标价由60港元上调至89 港元。 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley expresses a positive outlook on the Hainan tourism retail industry, supported by macroeconomic recovery, positive wealth effects, expansion of product categories, and policy support [1] - The forecast for China Duty Free Group's Q4 revenue, operating profit, and net profit is expected to grow by 19%, 92%, and 135% year-on-year, respectively, while the full-year revenue and profit are anticipated to decline by 1% and 9% year-on-year [1] - By 2026, the Hainan duty-free market is projected to grow by 25% to 30% year-on-year, driving a 44% increase in China Duty Free Group's profits [1] Group 2 - The current price of China Duty Free Group's H-shares corresponds to a projected price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 26 times for 2026, indicating a reasonable valuation level after recent gains [1] - Investors are advised to wait for a better entry point, with a rating of "in line with the market" and a target price raised from 60 HKD to 89 HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (601888) (01880) saw a significant stock increase of over 7%, with a current price of 83.7 HKD and a trading volume of 185 million HKD, driven by strong sales growth in Hainan's duty-free market [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Hainan's duty-free sales from January 1 to 3 increased by 129% year-on-year to 712 million CNY, with the number of shoppers rising by 61% [1] - The average duty-free spending per person reached 8,527 CNY, marking a 42.5% year-on-year increase, while the quantity of purchased items grew by 52.4% [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The robust sales growth is attributed to the relaxation of shopping policy restrictions for local residents and departing travelers in Hainan since October of the previous year, which has boosted shopper traffic [1] - Increased average spending is primarily driven by luxury categories such as clothing, footwear, handbags, jewelry, and mobile products, alongside ongoing government subsidies for duty-free shopping [1] Group 3: Analyst Outlook - UBS has a positive outlook on China Duty Free Group's A-shares and H-shares, setting target prices of 99.59 CNY and 90.73 HKD respectively, with a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (01880) saw a significant stock increase of over 7%, with a current price of 83.7 HKD and a trading volume of 185 million HKD, driven by strong sales growth in Hainan's duty-free market [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Hainan's duty-free sales from January 1 to 3 increased by 129% year-on-year to 712 million CNY, with the number of shoppers rising by 61% [1] - The estimated per capita duty-free spending reached 8,527 CNY, marking a 42.5% year-on-year increase, while the quantity of purchased items grew by 52.4% [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The robust sales growth is attributed to the relaxation of shopping policy restrictions for local residents and departing travelers in Hainan since October of the previous year, which boosted shopper traffic [1] - The increase in per capita spending is primarily driven by luxury categories such as clothing, footwear, handbags, jewelry, and mobile products [1] - Local government continues to provide subsidies for duty-free shopping, further supporting sales growth [1] Group 3: Analyst Outlook - UBS has a positive outlook on China Duty Free Group's A-shares and H-shares, setting target prices of 99.59 CNY and 90.73 HKD respectively, with a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - On January 6, 2023, brokerage firms provided target prices for listed companies, with notable increases for Tianqi Materials, BYD, and China Jushi, reflecting significant growth potential in the battery, passenger vehicle, and glass fiber industries respectively [1][2]. Target Price Increases - Tianqi Materials (002709) received a target price of 80.50 yuan, indicating a target price increase of 69.69% [2]. - BYD (002594) has a target price of 140.00 yuan, reflecting a 40.01% increase [2]. - China Jushi (600176) has a target price of 23.57 yuan, showing a 34.61% increase [2]. Brokerage Recommendations - A total of 26 listed companies received brokerage recommendations on January 6, with Hengyi Petrochemical, China Jushi, and BYD each receiving two recommendations [3]. - Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) had a closing price of 10.75 yuan with 2 brokerage firms recommending it [3]. - China Jushi (600176) closed at 17.51 yuan and was recommended by 2 brokerage firms [3]. - BYD (002594) closed at 99.99 yuan and also received 2 recommendations [3]. Rating Adjustments - On January 6, only one company had its rating upgraded, with Qunyi Securities (Hong Kong) raising China Duty Free's rating from "Hold" to "Buy" [4]. - China Duty Free (601888) is now rated as "Buy" in the tourism retail sector [4]. First-Time Coverage - Five companies received initial coverage on January 6, with New City Holdings rated "Buy" by Caitong Securities [5]. - Huaming Equipment (002270) was rated "Buy" by Huatai Securities [5]. - Yidong Electronics (301123) received a "Buy" rating from Zhongyou Securities [5]. - Huatu Mountain Ding (300492) was rated "Increase" by Guotai Junan Securities [5]. - Hehe Information (688615) received a "Buy" rating from Dongbei Securities [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the social services industry [4] Core Insights - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism data aligns with expectations, highlighting strong performance in duty-free shopping, inbound tourism, and leading mountain scenic spots. The upcoming long Spring Festival holiday and supportive tourism policies are expected to boost domestic consumption, leading to a favorable outlook for the social services industry in 2026 [3][7] Summary by Sections Domestic Tourism Demand - Domestic travel demand is steadily increasing, with 142 million domestic trips taken during the New Year holiday, a 5.2% increase compared to 2024. Total domestic travel expenditure reached 84.79 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year, with per capita spending increasing by 1.1% [7] Duty-Free Shopping - Duty-free sales in Hainan during the New Year holiday showed significant growth, with 442,000 items sold, a 52.4% increase year-on-year. The number of shoppers reached 83,500, up 60.6%, and total spending was 712 million yuan, a 128.9% increase. This growth is attributed to the official launch of duty-free operations, new policies, and promotional activities [7] Scenic Spots - Leading mountain scenic spots demonstrated strong visitor elasticity, with Huangshan receiving over 75,000 visitors (up 76.5% year-on-year), Emei Mountain hosting 126,200 visitors (up 20.9%), and Changbai Mountain seeing a 41% increase in visitors compared to 2025. The expansion of high-speed rail and airports contributed to this growth [7] Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) - Inbound tourism and winter sports are emerging as key growth drivers, with a 110% year-on-year increase in inbound ticket bookings and a more than 30-fold increase in experiential product bookings. Domestic winter sports continue to be a central theme for growth in 2026 [7]

Core Insights - The report highlights a strong start to the travel season with increased domestic travel during the New Year holiday, indicating a positive trend for the upcoming Spring Festival and suggesting a prolonged peak season for off-season operators [4][11]. Domestic Travel - Domestic travel volume increased as expected, with 142 million domestic trips taken during the New Year holiday, representing a 5.2% increase compared to 2024. Total spending reached 84.789 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year, with per capita spending increasing by 1.1% [4][11]. - The average daily cross-regional movement during the holiday was 198 million people, a 19.5% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in railway and civil aviation passenger volumes [11][19]. Sub-Industry Performance - Duty-free sales in Hainan saw significant growth, with sales volume and value increasing by 49.9% and 27.1% respectively compared to 2024. The average spending per person also rose by 18.0% [20]. - Hotel demand showed double-digit growth, although the revenue per available room (RevPAR) decreased by 2.6% due to high base effects from 2019. The overall hotel room supply has increased by 16% since then, indicating a recovery in travel demand [26][30]. - Scenic spots performed well, particularly mountainous areas, with notable increases in visitor numbers and revenue for key attractions [31][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the service consumption sector in 2026, as it is expected to become a key driver for economic growth. The report emphasizes the potential for high-end recovery and the rebalancing of supply and demand in the hotel sector [4][30]. - Key recommended stocks include China Duty Free Group, Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, Ctrip Group, Meituan, and Haidilao, among others, as they are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in service consumption [4][34].

（编辑 黄力） 本报讯 （记者袁传玺）天眼查工商信息显示，近日，中免集团（北京）免税品有限公司成立，注册资本5亿元，经营范围 含日用品销售、信息咨询服务、箱包销售、工艺美术品及礼仪用品制造、计算机软硬件及辅助设备零售、免税商品销售、酒类 经营等。股东信息显示，该公司由中国免税品（集团）有限责任公司全资持股。 ...

作为海南免税市场最大份额的龙头运营商，中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司（以下简称：中国中免，股 票代码：601888.SH）2026年首个交易日却未承接到元旦假期免税消费的红利。 截至1月5日收盘，中国中免报90.29元/股，日跌4.52%，市值约1868亿元。不过，时间拉长 来看，自2025年12月18日以来，中国中免股价已上浮近20%。在12月31日盘中，该股一度冲 至95.66元/股，创下2023年11月以来的新高。 不过，作为"免税茅"，当下的中国中免与高峰时期仍相距甚远。 2020年6月，中共中央、国务院发布《海南自由贸易港建设总体方案》。当年，中国中免的股价也进入 疯狂的上行通道，仅2020年6月，股价就上涨超50%，并首次突破百元大关，随后股价更接连冲破200元 和300元，顶峰时刻的市值一度超过8000亿元。 封关后的第一个小长假，海南免税销售再度起飞，但中国中免还没缓过来。 2026年元旦假期，海南迎来离岛免税消费热潮。海口海关1月4日公布统计数据，2026年1月1日~3日， 海口海关共监管离岛免税商品销售44.2万件，同比增长52.4%；购物人数8.35万人次，同比增长60.6%； 购物金额7 ...

从资金流向上来看，当日旅游零售板块主力资金净流出2.91亿元，游资资金净流入7585.11万元，散户资 金净流入2.15亿元。旅游零售板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 名称 主力净流入 (元) 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) 游资净占比 散户净占比 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601888 中国中免 | -2.9117 -5.59% | 7585.11万 | 1.46% | 2.15(Z | 4.13% | | WILL - A TT WILL CLASS | | | | | | 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 证券之星消息，1月6日旅游零售板块较上一交易日上涨0.33%，中国中免领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4083.67，上涨1.5%。深证成指报收于14022.55，上涨1.4%。旅游零售板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | - ...