格隆汇8月25日｜国海证券研报指出，中煤能源上半年归母净利润77亿元，同比-21.3%；Q2归母净利润 37.27亿元，环比-6.3%，同比-22.7%。煤炭业务：2025H1自产煤受价格下滑拖累吨毛利，但销量增（同 比+1.4%）成本降（同比-10.2%）为业绩提供一定韧性，其中吨煤成本下降主要在于加大安全费和维简 费使用减少专项基金结余。量端，公司2025H1实现商品煤产量6734万吨，同比+1.3%，商品煤销量 12868万吨，同比-3.6%，自产煤销量6711万吨，同比+1.4%，其中动力煤、炼焦煤销量分别为6206、 505万吨，同比+2.49%、-10.46%。考虑到公司长协比例高，业绩稳定性强，同时未来公司里必煤矿以 及苇子沟煤矿投产，煤化工业务陆续放量，业绩仍有增长空间，同时公司提高分红加大对股东回报，维 持"买入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [9]. Core Viewpoints - The recent coal mine accident in Fujian has raised concerns about the vulnerability of coal supply in China. The accident is expected to amplify local safety regulation efforts, potentially impacting coal supply. Despite this, stable demand and rigid supply constraints suggest that coal prices may continue to rise in the short term [2][7]. - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 0.99% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.19 percentage points, ranking last among all industries [6][14]. - The market anticipates that the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" period will support coal demand, particularly as non-electric demand begins to pick up [6][7]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Overview - As of August 21, the daily coal consumption in 25 provinces was 6.427 million tons, up 8.0% week-on-week. The supply of coal was 6.324 million tons, an increase of 3.8% [31]. - The total coal inventory in these provinces was 119.798 million tons, a decrease of 0.4% from the previous week, with an available days supply of 18.6 days, down 1.6 days [31]. Price Trends - As of August 22, the market price for Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal was 704 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6 RMB/ton (+0.86%) [38]. - The price for coking coal at Jingtang Port remained stable at 1610 RMB/ton [6]. Market Performance - The report highlights that the coal sector's performance has been mixed, with the thermal coal index rising by 1.09% and the coking coal index increasing by 0.76%, both underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index [14][18]. - The report identifies several companies with strong investment potential, including Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Shanxi Coking Coal Group, and China Shenhua Energy [8]. Company Announcements - China Shenhua announced the approval of its Chongqing Wanzhou Power Plant expansion project, which will add 2×1000 MW capacity [52]. - Yanzhou Coal's Australian subsidiary reported a revenue of 2.675 billion AUD for the first half of 2025 [53]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that while daily consumption may gradually decline, the overall demand for coal remains robust, supported by seasonal factors and ongoing supply constraints [6][15]. - The focus will be on monitoring safety regulations and their impact on supply, as well as the performance of coal prices in the context of broader market conditions [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - China Coal's 1H25 results exceeded expectations due to effective cost reduction and expense control despite a decline in net profit and coal prices [1][2]. Financial Performance - A-shares net profit attributable to shareholders fell 21% YoY to Rmb7.71 billion, while recurring attributable net profit also dropped 21% YoY to Rmb7.65 billion [1]. - H-shares attributable net profit decreased 32% YoY to Rmb7.33 billion [1]. - In 2Q25, A-shares net profit attributable to shareholders rose 3.0% YoY but fell 3.0% QoQ to Rmb4.8 billion [1]. Production and Sales - Commercial coal output increased slightly by 1.3% YoY to 67.34 million tonnes, while sales volume decreased by 3.6% YoY to 128.68 million tonnes [1]. - Self-produced coal sales volume rose 1.4% YoY to 67.11 million tonnes [1]. - In 2Q25, commercial coal output and self-produced coal sales volume rose 0.7% YoY and 1.6% YoY to 33.99 million tonnes and 34.43 million tonnes, respectively [1]. Pricing and Costs - The selling price of self-produced coal fell 20% YoY to Rmb470 per tonne in 1H25, with a further decline to Rmb449 per tonne in 2Q25, down 21% YoY and 8.7% QoQ [1]. - The unit sales cost of self-produced coal dropped Rmb32 per tonne YoY to Rmb205 per tonne, with reductions in material, labor, and other costs [2]. Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - Net operating cash inflow dropped Rmb8,244 million YoY to Rmb7,496 million, while capital expenditure reached Rmb6.972 billion [3]. Future Outlook - There is optimism for earnings recovery in 2H25, with spot coal prices rebounding from a YTD low [3]. - The firm proposed a stable interim dividend of Rmb0.166 per share, reflecting its commitment to rewarding shareholders despite industry pressures [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 5% and 13% for A-shares, and 5% and 15% for H-shares, respectively [3]. - A-shares are trading at 9.8x and 9.0x 2025e and 2026e P/E, while H-shares are at 7.6x and 6.8x [3]. - Target prices for A-shares and H-shares have been raised by 8% to Rmb14.00 and 22% to HK$11.00, respectively, indicating potential upside [3].

Core Viewpoint - China Coal Energy Co., Ltd. has experienced fluctuations in stock price and financial performance, with a notable decrease in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [2][3]. Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 74.436 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.95% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.705 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21.28% [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 42.873 billion yuan, with 19.185 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - On August 25, 2025, the stock price increased by 2.08%, reaching 12.29 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 2.21 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has seen a year-to-date increase of 0.90%, with a 5-day increase of 2.85%, a 20-day increase of 2.85%, and a 60-day increase of 14.75% [1]. - The company had a total market capitalization of 162.949 billion yuan as of the latest trading session [1]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 12.08% to 95,000 [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with changes in holdings noted for several ETFs [3].

Group 1 - The report highlights that XPeng Motors achieved a record high gross margin in Q2 2025, with a revenue of 18.27 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 125.3% [5][6] - The gross margin for Q2 was 17.3%, up 3.3 percentage points from the same period in 2024, driven by the launch of high-priced models G6 and G9 [5][6] - The company expects to continue improving its overall gross margin in Q4 2025 with the release of new models and an increase in sales of range-extended vehicles [6][7] Group 2 - Shengnong Development reported a revenue of 8.856 billion yuan in H1 2025, a slight increase of 0.22% year-on-year, while net profit surged by 791.93% to 910 million yuan [11][13] - The company achieved growth in both production and sales, with chicken meat sales increasing by 2.5% and processed meat products by 13.21% [13] - The completion of the acquisition of Sun Valley Holdings has further optimized the supply chain and improved operational efficiency [13][14] Group 3 - Muyuan Foods reported a revenue of 76.463 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.46%, with net profit soaring by 1169.77% to 10.53 billion yuan [15][16] - The company sold 46.91 million pigs in H1 2025, with production costs decreasing to approximately 11.8 yuan/kg by July [16] - The company aims to reduce its overall debt by 10 billion yuan, having already decreased its total liabilities by 5.6 billion yuan by the end of Q2 2025 [15][16] Group 4 - Yanjin Food reported a revenue of 2.941 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.58%, with net profit rising by 16.70% to 373 million yuan [18][19] - The company’s revenue from konjac products increased by 155% to 790 million yuan, becoming a key growth driver [19][20] - The company is focusing on optimizing its cost structure and improving profitability through better product mix and channel strategies [20][21] Group 5 - Guocer Materials achieved a revenue of 2.154 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.29%, with net profit slightly up by 0.38% to 332 million yuan [22][24] - The company’s electronic materials segment saw a revenue increase of 23.65%, while the new energy materials segment grew by 26.36% [24][25] - The company is actively developing new materials and expanding its product offerings to meet the growing demand in various sectors [27][28] Group 6 - Yingliu Technology reported a revenue of 1.384 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.11%, with net profit rising by 23.91% to 188 million yuan [29][30] - The company’s new material and equipment segment experienced significant growth, with a revenue increase of 74.49% [31] - The company has secured multiple strategic partnerships in the nuclear energy sector, enhancing its order backlog [33][34] Group 7 - Shengquan Group reported a revenue of 5.351 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.67%, with net profit rising by 51.19% to 501 million yuan [37][38] - The company’s advanced electronic materials and battery materials segments achieved significant revenue growth, driven by increased demand [38][39] - The company is focusing on cost control and efficiency improvements to enhance profitability [39][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the coal industry, indicating an expectation for the sector to outperform the overall market performance [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the coal market is experiencing short-term price fluctuations due to supply constraints caused by heavy rainfall and production checks in key mining areas. It anticipates that coal prices will stabilize as temperatures drop across most regions [3]. - The report provides specific price data for thermal coal and coking coal, noting that while some thermal coal prices have decreased, others have seen slight increases. The overall trend suggests a mixed but stable pricing environment [3][10][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply and demand dynamics, with increased daily coal inflow and outflow at the ports, leading to a decrease in coal inventory levels [21]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Developments - The report discusses recent developments in coal mining projects and safety initiatives, including approvals for increased production capacities in certain regions [9]. Price Trends - Thermal coal prices have shown mixed results, with some prices remaining stable while others have increased slightly. Coking coal prices are expected to experience minor fluctuations before potentially rising again due to seasonal demand [10][12]. International Oil Prices - The report notes an increase in Brent crude oil prices, which may influence coal pricing dynamics. The relationship between international oil prices and coal prices is highlighted, with a noted increase in the ratio of oil to coal prices [17]. Port Inventory and Shipping Costs - The report indicates a decrease in coal inventory at the ports, with increased daily inflow and outflow rates. Shipping costs for domestic routes have also risen slightly, reflecting broader market trends [21][27]. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, providing insights into their market performance and earnings projections. Companies such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal are highlighted for their stable operations and high dividend yields [33].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, which highlights its long-term investment value despite a decline in coal prices [4][22] - The company plans to maintain a stable dividend payout, distributing 30% of its net profit to shareholders as cash dividends [4][20] - The company is developing a "coal-electric-chemical-new" integrated industrial chain, with several key projects progressing as planned [4][22] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 74.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.0%, and a net profit of 7.71 billion yuan, down 21.3% [10] - For Q2 2025, revenue was 36.04 billion yuan, a decline of 24.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.73 billion yuan, down 22.7% year-on-year and 6.3% quarter-on-quarter [10] - The coal business showed stable production and sales, with a slight increase in self-produced coal output, while the cost management efforts led to a decrease in unit coal costs [2][12] Coal Business Summary - In Q2 2025, the company produced 33.99 million tons of commodity coal, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, with sales volume of 64.54 million tons, down 7.4% [2][12] - The average selling price for self-produced thermal coal and coking coal decreased by 89 yuan/ton and 395 yuan/ton respectively [2][12] - The unit sales cost for self-produced commodity coal in H1 2025 was 263 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton year-on-year [2][12] Coal Chemical Business Summary - The coal chemical business saw an increase in production and sales, but the prices of major products declined, leading to a decrease in gross profit [3][17] - In H1 2025, the main coal chemical products had a production/sales volume of 2.988/3.166 million tons, with prices for key products like urea and methanol dropping significantly [3][17] Other Business Summary - The coal mining equipment and financial services sectors reported increased gross profits despite a decline in revenue for the coal mining equipment business [3][20] - The coal mining equipment business generated revenue of 4.77 billion yuan, down 15.3% year-on-year, but gross profit increased by 9.6% due to lower material costs [3][20] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 16.2 billion, 16.5 billion, and 17.2 billion yuan respectively [4][22] - The company maintains a strong performance outlook due to growth in both coal and coal chemical businesses, alongside potential for increased dividend payouts [4][22]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in the coal and chemical sectors, while maintaining a stable dividend policy. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 74.436 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.95% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.705 billion yuan, down 21.28% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, operating revenue was 36.044 billion yuan, a decline of 24.26% year-on-year, with net profit at 3.727 billion yuan, down 22.65% [1] Group 2: Coal Production and Pricing - The company sold 12.868 million tons of commodity coal in H1 2025, a decrease of 3.6% year-on-year, while self-produced coal sales increased by 1.4% to 6.711 million tons [2] - The average selling price of coal was 471 yuan/ton, down 19.2% year-on-year, with self-produced coal averaging 470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.5% [2] - The cost of self-produced commodity coal was 263 yuan/ton, down 10.2% year-on-year, resulting in a gross profit of 2.08 billion yuan per ton, down 28.2% [2] Group 3: Chemical Products Performance - The company sold 660,000 tons of olefins in H1 2025, a decrease of 13.2%, with an average price of 6,681 yuan/ton, down 3.9% [3] - Urea sales increased by 2.6% to 1.21 million tons, with an average price of 1,756 yuan/ton, down 19.0% [3] - Methanol profits improved significantly, with sales of 997,000 tons, up 16.1%, and a gross profit of 466 yuan per ton, up 585% year-on-year [3] Group 4: New Projects and Dividends - The company is advancing coal, electricity, and new energy projects, including a 2 million ton/year coal mine and various renewable energy initiatives [3] - The interim cash dividend for 2025 is 0.166 yuan per share, representing 30% of profits, with a dividend yield of 1.4% for A shares and 1.9% for H shares [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 estimate net profits of 15 billion, 16 billion, and 16.9 billion yuan, reflecting a decline in 2025 but growth in subsequent years [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The Asian metallurgical coal market is expected to continue its recovery in Q3 2025, supported by post-monsoon inventory replenishment in India and potential rebounds in the Chinese domestic market [2]. - Despite supply pressures from adverse weather and safety issues in Australian mining, the overall outlook for the metallurgical coal market remains positive [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Global energy prices have shown mixed trends, with Brent crude oil futures at $67.73 per barrel, up by $1.88 (+2.85%) from the previous week, while WTI crude oil futures increased by $0.86 (+1.37%) to $63.66 per barrel [1]. - Natural gas prices in Northeast Asia rose to $11.705 per million British thermal units, an increase of $0.847 (+7.80%) [1]. Coal Price Trends - European ARA port coal prices increased by $3.0 to $101.8 per ton (+3.1%), while Newcastle port coal prices rose slightly by $0.2 to $112.3 per ton (+0.2%) [1]. - The IPE South African Richards Bay coal futures settled at $89.7 per ton, down by $0.5 (-0.4%) [1]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include major coal enterprises such as China Coal Energy (H+A) and China Shenhua (H+A), with a focus on companies showing potential for turnaround like China Qinfa [3]. - High-performing stocks include Shaanxi Coal and Electricity, China Energy Investment, and Huai Bei Mining, while companies like Yancoal and Jinkong Coal are noted for their flexibility and potential for growth [3]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a significant trend where China is transitioning from a coal importer to an exporter, driven by a surplus in the domestic market [8]. - The forecast for Q3 2025 anticipates that the price of high-quality low-volatile hard coking coal will average $178 per ton, with expectations of $181 per ton in the second half of 2025 [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that thermal coal prices are rebounding, aiming for a target of 750 CNY per ton, with a current price of 704 CNY per ton as of August 22, 2025, reflecting a 15.6% increase from the lowest price of 609 CNY per ton earlier this year [4][5] - The report emphasizes that both thermal coal and coking coal prices have reached a turning point, with expectations for further price recovery [5][13] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal Market - As of August 22, 2025, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 704 CNY/ton, with a 15.6% increase from the year's lowest price of 609 CNY/ton [4] - The operating rate of 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 81.7%, indicating a relatively low supply level [4] - Port inventories have decreased by 29.82% from the highest level of 3,316.3 million tons earlier this year to 2,327.4 million tons [4] - The daily consumption of coal remains high during the summer, with the methanol operating rate at 80.65%, reflecting strong demand [4] Coking Coal Market - The price of coking coal at the Jing Tang Port is 1,610 CNY/ton, rebounding from a low of 1,230 CNY/ton in early July, with a significant increase of 61.61% in futures prices [4][5] - The report notes a tightening supply expectation due to regulatory measures on overproduction in coal mines [5] Investment Logic - The report suggests that the current thermal coal price has surpassed the second target price of around 700 CNY, with expectations to reach the third target price of 750 CNY, which is the breakeven point for coal and power generation companies [5][13] - Coking coal prices are expected to be influenced more by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices set based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [5][13] Investment Recommendations - The report identifies four main investment lines in the coal sector: 1. Cycle logic: Companies like Jinko Coal and Yancoal 2. Dividend logic: Companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Companies like Shenhua Holdings and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic: Companies like Xinji Energy and Guanghui Energy [6][14]