股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 本报告导读： 业绩符合市场预期，山西产量恢复及大海则放量，助力 Q3 产销双升，同时煤化工 经营稳定，毛利抬升。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 经营稳健，国改排头兵 中煤能源(601898) [Table_Industry] 煤炭/能源 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|---------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 黄涛 ( 分析师 ) | 王楠瑀 ( 研究助理 ) | | | | | | | | 021-38674879 | 021-38032030 | | | | | | | | huangtao@gtjas.com | wangnanyu028176@gtjas.com | | | | | | | 登 ...

中煤能源（601898.SH） 煤炭开采 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 24 日 Q3 业绩符合预期，降本增利显著 公司盈利预测及估值 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------- ...

干源证券 煤炭/煤炭开采 Q3 盈利保持稳健，关注高分红潜力和主业成长性 中煤能源（601898.SH） 2024 年 10 月 24 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 张绪成（分析师） ——公司信息更新报告 | --- | --- | |-------------------------|------------| | 日期 | 2024/10/23 | | 当前股价 ( 元 ) | 13.24 | | 一年最高最低 ( 元 ) | 15.92/8.31 | | 总市值 ( 亿元 ) | 1,755.45 | | 流通市值 ( 亿元 ) | 1,211.72 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 132.59 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 91.52 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 15.44 | 股价走势图 -24% 0% 24% 48% 72% 96% 2023-10 2024-02 2024-06 中煤能源 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《深度系列二：低估值央煤，高分红 与高成长潜力足—公司深度报告》 -2024.9.19 《中报分红加大回馈股东，煤化一体 高成长—2024 年中报点评 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.17% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to effective cost control, with a decrease in various expenses [1] - The coal business revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 117.85 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year, primarily due to falling coal prices [2] - The company maintained its profit forecast for 2024-2026, with net profit estimates of 19.39 billion yuan, 19.86 billion yuan, and 20.52 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 1.46, 1.50, and 1.55 yuan [3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company's operating revenue was 47.428 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.826 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% [1] - The coal production for the first three quarters of 2024 was 102 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, with a slight decrease in mining costs [2] - The company's EBITDA for 2024 is projected to be 49.03 billion yuan, with a P/E ratio of 9.05 and a P/B ratio of 1.12 [7][10] Cost Management - The unit sales cost of self-produced coal for the first three quarters of 2024 was 286.6 yuan/ton, down 2.8% year-on-year, mainly due to reductions in depreciation, maintenance, transportation, and other costs [2] - The gross profit margin for polyolefins increased by 13.4% year-on-year, while the gross profit margin for urea decreased by 25.7% [3] Market Position - The company's total A-share market capitalization is approximately 121.17 billion yuan, with a total A-share capital of 9.152 billion shares [4] - The stock price has shown fluctuations, with a peak of 15.92 yuan and a low of 8.31 yuan over the past year [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown stable performance despite a decline in revenue and profit due to effective cost control and a continuous optimization of its asset structure [1][2] - The coal sales volume has maintained a growth trend, with a slight increase in overall coal sales despite a decrease in prices [1][2] - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in profits due to its high proportion of long-term contracts and internal growth momentum [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 140.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.61 billion yuan, down 12.43% year-on-year [1] - The company's cash flow from operating activities was 25.76 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.16% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share at 1.10 yuan, down 12.70% year-on-year [1] - The coal sales volume for the first three quarters was 100.38 million tons, an increase of 0.7% year-on-year, with the average selling price of thermal coal at 503 yuan per ton, down 5.5% year-on-year [1][2] Cost Control and Profitability - The company has effectively controlled costs, with the unit sales cost of self-produced coal decreasing by 2.8% year-on-year to 286.6 yuan per ton [1] - The gross profit from coal business was 29.25 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.0% year-on-year, indicating that good cost control has helped stabilize performance in a declining market [1] - The company’s chemical products also showed significant cost reductions, with unit sales costs for various products decreasing [1] Debt and Asset Management - The company has continued to repay debts, with non-current liabilities due within one year decreasing by 36.6% year-on-year to 13.79 billion yuan [1] - The asset-liability ratio improved to 47.08%, a decrease from the previous year, indicating a stronger balance sheet [1] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 19.23 billion yuan, 19.57 billion yuan, and 20.25 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 1.45 yuan, 1.48 yuan, and 1.53 yuan [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Coal Energy (601898.SH) [2] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 140.41 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.11%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 14.61 billion, down 12.43% year-on-year [4] - The coal business showed a recovery in production and sales in Q3 2024, with a total coal production of 35.81 million tons and sales of 71.69 million tons, representing year-on-year increases of 5.2% and 5.6%, respectively [4] - The company has a strong cash position with CNY 88.92 billion in cash and a debt-to-asset ratio of 47.08%, indicating potential for increased shareholder returns [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of CNY 47.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, and a net profit of CNY 4.83 billion, down 0.6% year-on-year [4] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a net profit of CNY 14.61 billion, a decrease of 12.43% compared to the previous year [4] Coal Business - The total coal production and sales for the first three quarters of 2024 were 102.31 million tons and 205.51 million tons, respectively, with production up 1.1% and sales down 4.3% year-on-year [4] - The average selling price of self-produced coal was CNY 571 per ton, down 5.3% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was CNY 286.6, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year [4] Chemical Business - The company reported stable sales in its chemical segment, with polyolefins sales of 1.135 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [5] - The average selling prices for polyolefins and urea were CNY 6,971 and CNY 2,134 per ton, respectively, with urea prices down 11.4% year-on-year [5] Future Growth Potential - The company is expected to see growth in coal production with new mines projected to be operational by 2025, and ongoing projects in coal chemical processing and power generation [6] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are CNY 1,917 billion, CNY 1,984 billion, and CNY 2,018 billion, with net profits expected to be CNY 192 billion, CNY 212 billion, and CNY 225 billion, respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 12.00 for the Hong Kong stock and RMB 16.90 for the A-share [5][6]. Core Views - The company's net profit for the third quarter was RMB 4.83 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.1%, indicating stable earnings [1]. - The decline in the proportion of self-produced coal sales negatively impacted the profit margins, alongside a decrease in the chemical segment's production and sales due to maintenance [2][3]. - The company is expected to maintain stable profitability due to a high proportion of long-term coal sales contracts, especially as the traditional peak season for coal approaches in the fourth quarter [1][4]. Summary by Sections Coal Production - The average selling price of self-produced coal in the third quarter was RMB 546 per ton, down 3.2% year-on-year and 4.3% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The unit cost of self-produced coal decreased to RMB 274 per ton, a reduction of 12.2% year-on-year and 6.9% quarter-on-quarter, partially offsetting the impact of falling prices on profit margins [2]. - The total coal production reached 35.81 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6% [2]. Chemical Production - The chemical segment experienced significant production declines due to equipment maintenance, with urea production down 46.3% year-on-year and methanol production down 30% [3]. - The unit cost for urea increased by 27.4% year-on-year, while methanol's unit cost rose by 22.7% year-on-year, leading to a sharp decline in the segment's profit margins [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is RMB 20.19 billion, RMB 21.92 billion, and RMB 23.45 billion respectively [4][7]. - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in the industry for 2025 is 9.7x, while the company is assigned a PE of 10.7x for 2024-2025, leading to a target price of RMB 16.90 for A-shares and HKD 12.00 for H-shares [4][8].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/煤炭 证券研究报告 中煤能源（601898）公司季报点评 2024 年 10 月 24 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------| | 股票数据 | | | 10 [ Table_StockInfo 月 23 日收盘价（元） ] | 13.24 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 8.31-15.92 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | 13259/9152 | | 总市值 / 流通市值（百万元） | 175545/175545 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《 Q2 归母净利同比逆势增长，边际与远期稳 | | | 健成长可期》 2024.08.27 | | | 《中煤能源深度报告：稳健与成长兼具，边际 与远期可期 20240815 》 | 2024.0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable performance with a notable value proposition despite a decline in revenue and net profit year-on-year [1][2]. - The coal production and sales have shown resilience, with a slight increase in self-produced coal sales in Q3 2024 [2]. - The report projects a gradual recovery in net profit over the next few years, with expected net profits of 19.2 billion, 21.4 billion, and 23.7 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 140.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.61 billion yuan, down 12.43% [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 4.83 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.55% year-on-year, while revenue increased by 1.23% to 47.43 billion yuan [1]. - The average selling price of self-produced thermal coal decreased by 5.5% year-on-year to 503 yuan/ton for the first three quarters of 2024 [2]. Production and Cost Analysis - The company produced and sold 102.31 million tons and 205.51 million tons of raw coal respectively in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.1% in production but a decrease of 4.3% in sales [2]. - The cost of self-produced coal for the first three quarters of 2024 was 287 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, while in Q3 2024, the cost dropped to 274 yuan/ton, down 12.2% year-on-year [2]. Future Projections - The report forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 19.2 billion, 21.4 billion, and 23.7 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.2X, 8.2X, and 7.4X [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company's coal business shows internal and external extensibility, supported by high long-term contracts, which ensures steady profit growth. The synergy of coal and chemical integration helps improve valuation. The forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are 189.58 billion, 199.00 billion, and 214.11 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.43, 1.50, and 1.61 yuan per share, leading to PE ratios of 9, 9, and 8 times based on the closing price on October 23, 2024 [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 140.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.61 billion yuan, down 12.4% year-on-year. The third quarter saw a slight year-on-year decline in net profit but a marginal quarter-on-quarter increase [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 47.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.3%. The net profit for the same period was 4.83 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.6% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.2% [1]. - The gross profit margin in Q3 2024 was 23.5%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous quarter, while the expense ratio slightly decreased to 4.5% [1]. - Coal production in Q3 2024 reached 35.81 million tons, up 5.2% year-on-year and 6.0% quarter-on-quarter. The unit cost of self-produced coal was 274.4 yuan per ton, down 12.2% year-on-year and 6.9% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The chemical segment's profitability declined in Q3 2024, with production of various chemicals showing mixed results in terms of volume and pricing [1]. Financial Forecasts - The projected operating revenue for 2024 is 183.41 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 18.96 billion yuan, down 3.0% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is expected to maintain a PE ratio of 9 for 2024 and 2025, decreasing to 8 by 2026 [2][4].