Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal mining industry is experiencing a tightening supply in safety production month, with daily consumption increasing week-on-week and port inventories decreasing [2][5] - The report highlights the potential for a rebound in thermal coal prices as the summer peak season approaches, supported by low inventory levels at power plants [5][16] - The overall coal market fundamentals have improved significantly compared to previous periods, with expectations for price stabilization and recovery [5][16] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - Port inventories continue to decrease, with a week-on-week drop of 125.3 thousand tons, indicating a tightening supply [30] - Daily consumption at coastal and inland power plants has increased, with a week-on-week rise of 2.0 and 24.9 thousand tons respectively [25][31] - The average price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port has decreased by 2 yuan/ton week-on-week, now at 609 yuan/ton [17] Coking Coal - Supply of coking coal has contracted, with a week-on-week decrease in production capacity utilization by 0.87 percentage points [41] - The average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has decreased by 234 trucks week-on-week [45] - Coking coal prices at major ports have decreased, with the price at Jing Tang port dropping by 30 yuan/ton to 1270 yuan/ton [42] Coke - The implementation of the third round of price reductions has led to a decrease in the operating rate of coke enterprises, down 0.15 percentage points to 76.04% [53] - Coke prices have decreased by 70 yuan/ton week-on-week, now at 1280 yuan/ton [53] - The average profit per ton of coke has improved by 20 yuan/ton week-on-week, now at -19 yuan/ton [57] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong cash flow and high profitability, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [78] - It emphasizes the value attributes of the coal sector, particularly in the context of recent government support and market stability [77][78]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" for coal mining companies [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, and the market is well aware of the price decline. The industry is at a critical stage of price bottoming, and the bottom may not be far off. It is essential to grasp the intrinsic attributes of the industry and maintain confidence [3]. - In May 2025, India's coal-fired power generation decreased by 9.5% year-on-year to 113.3 billion kWh, marking the largest year-on-year decline since June 2020 [2]. - The report emphasizes that domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) of coal enterprises reporting losses as of March 2025. This trend may lead to increased probabilities of both passive and active production cuts [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Prices - As of June 6, 2025, coal prices showed mixed trends: European ARA port coal price at $89/ton (down 2.2%), Newcastle port coal price at $218.9/ton (unchanged), and IPE South Africa Richards Bay coal futures at $91/ton (up 1.2%) [1][32]. Key Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - China Shenhua (601088.SH) - Buy - Shaanxi Coal and Energy (601225.SH) - Buy - China Qinfa (00866.HK) - Buy - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) - Buy - Electric Power Energy (002128.SZ) - Buy - Jinko Coal Industry (601001.SH) - Buy - Yancoal Energy (600188.SH) - Buy - New Hope Energy (601918.SH) - Buy [6]. Electricity Demand - In May 2025, India's total electricity generation decreased by 5.3% year-on-year to 160.4 billion kWh, with peak demand down 8% to 231,000 MW, primarily due to mild weather conditions [5].

投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 煤炭 2025 年 06 月 08 日 焦煤期货大涨和动力煤去库，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 ——行业周报 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《国内及蒙古焦煤临近成本线，焦煤 加速探底或近底部—行业点评报告》 -2025.6.4 《煤价企稳和环渤海港去库，否极泰 来 重 视 煤 炭 配 置 — 行 业 周 报 》- 2025.6.2 《煤炭供给最重要变量：疆煤受价降 而减量—行业点评报告》-2025.5.30 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 本周要闻回顾：焦煤期货大涨和动力煤去库，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 （1）动力煤方面：从价格端来看，本周港口价格微跌，截至 6 月 6 日，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 609 元/吨，环比下跌 2 元/吨，跌幅 0.33%。从供给端来 看，国内生产方面，截至 6 月 1 日，晋陕蒙三省 442 家煤矿开工率 81.3%，环比下 跌 0.3 个百分点，其中山西省煤 ...

中国中煤能源股份有限公司 2024 年度股东周年大会及 2025 年第一次 A 股类别股东会 会议资料 2025 年 6 月 中煤能源 2024 年度股东周年大会及 2025 年第一次 A 股类别股东会会议资料 目 录 | 会 | 议 须 | 知 | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2024 | | 年度股东周年大会会议议程 | 2 | | 2025 | 年第一次 | A 股类别股东会会议议程 | 4 | | 2024 | | 年度股东周年大会会议议案 | | | 议案一 | 关于《公司 | 2024 年度董事会报告》的议案 | 5 | | 议案二 | 关于《公司 | 2024 年度监事会报告》的议案 | 6 | | 议案三 | 关于《公司 | 2024 年度财务报告》的议案 | 10 | | 议案四 | 关于《公司 | 2024 年度利润分配预案》的议案 | 12 | | 议案五 | | 关于提请股东大会授权董事会制定并实施 2025 年中期分红方案的议案 | 13 | | 议案六 | | 关于继续给予公司发行债务类融资工具一般性授权的议案 | 14 | | 议案七 | 关于 ...

迎接 6 月基本面拐点 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.05 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——煤炭行业周报 | [table_Authors] 黄涛(分析师) | 王楠瑀(研究助理) | | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880515090001 | S0880123060041 | 本报告导读： 煤价底部企稳，预计随着全国气温的逐步攀升，再考虑到库存去化，预计煤价拐点 就在 6 月，当前就是基本面拐点。 投资要点： [投资建议： Table_Summary] 从板块推荐角度，依然推荐红利的核心中国神华、陕西煤业、 中煤能源；继续推荐兖矿能源、晋控煤业。 疆煤外运及内蒙的铁路运费再次下调，背后或反应新疆内蒙外运大规模 亏损压力。上周疆煤外运及内蒙的铁路运费再次下调，物流成本继续下 降。旺季来临时候下调运费，显示出产地，新疆内蒙外运大规模亏损压 力，运量下降倒逼铁路降价，在当前 620 元港口价格下已经刻不容缓， 侧面反映两大产地压力。我们认为 4 月全国产量 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, China Coal Energy (601898.SH), with a target price of 14.33 CNY per share based on absolute and relative valuation methods [1][4][18]. Core Views - The report anticipates that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will be 16.15 billion, 17.97 billion, and 18.57 billion CNY for the years 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.22, 1.36, and 1.40 CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -16.41%, 11.26%, and 3.31% [1][17]. - The market perceives an oversupply in the coal industry, leading to potential price declines; however, the report argues that a balanced supply-demand scenario will maintain spot prices between 750-850 CNY/ton [2][13][54]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Coal Energy is a leading state-owned enterprise in the coal sector, focusing on integrated operations and clean coal utilization [22]. - The company has substantial coal reserves of 26.52 billion tons and a recoverable reserve of 13.821 billion tons, with a mining life expectancy of nearly 100 years [56]. Financial Data - The company reported a revenue of 189.4 billion CNY in 2024, a slight decrease of 1.9% from the previous year, with a net profit of 19.32 billion CNY, down 1.1% [7][27]. - The average dividend payout ratio since its listing is 30.65%, with a projected payout ratio of 32.87% for 2024 [14][17]. Industry Analysis - The report highlights a stable coal price environment, with expectations for prices to remain between 750-850 CNY/ton due to balanced supply and demand [2][54]. - The coal production capacity is nearing its limits, with expected production stabilizing around 38.5-39 billion tons from 2025 to 2027 [54]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 182.29 billion, 186.23 billion, and 187.70 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of -3.75%, 2.16%, and 0.79% respectively [17]. - The report employs a Dividend Discount Model (DDM) for valuation, suggesting a reasonable stock price of 13.68 CNY based on dividend expectations [18].

Summary of China Coal Energy Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Coal Industry - **Company**: China Coal Energy Key Points and Arguments 1. **Coking Coal Price Recovery Expectations**: The market anticipates an increase in coking coal demand due to clarified real estate policies, potentially leading to a price rebound. However, deeper analytical support for this expectation is lacking. Coking coal prices remained around 1,100 RMB/ton in Q1 and Q2 of 2025, with stability expected in Q3 and beyond [2][3][4]. 2. **Impact of New Mineral Resources Law**: The new law, effective July 1, 2025, provides a legal framework for mineral resource management, promoting orderly and legal market operations. It is expected to benefit China Coal Energy in resource and asset disposal, although the increase in environmental costs for new mines remains uncertain [2][5]. 3. **Stable Operational Performance in Q2**: For the first four months of 2025, coal production and sales remained stable. While performance is expected to be flat compared to the previous quarter, there may be year-on-year pressure due to coal price impacts, with detailed data pending [2][6]. 4. **High Coal Inventory with Decreasing Trend**: The company’s coal inventory, including production segment and port inventories, remains high but shows a clear trend of reduction [2][7]. 5. **Long-term Contract Fulfillment**: China Coal Energy maintains a long-term contract fulfillment rate above 90%, with a contract ratio of no less than 75% for 2025, in compliance with national requirements [2][8]. 6. **Coal Price Stability and Future Outlook**: Since early 2025, coal prices have been declining but stabilized around 620 RMB for 5,500 kcal spot prices by the end of May. The upcoming summer peak demand and price increases in major production areas are expected to support coal prices, leading to narrow fluctuations [4][9]. 7. **Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement**: The company emphasizes cost reduction and efficiency as key development strategies in response to low coal prices. This includes refined management and efficient production practices, which have contributed to positive performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 [4][11]. 8. **Profitability of Coal Chemical Projects**: All operational coal chemical projects have been profitable, even during periods of high coal prices [12]. 9. **Progress of Ongoing Projects**: Two major projects, the Libu Anthracite Mine (4 million tons/year) and the Weigou Thermal Coal Mine (2.4 million tons/year), are expected to commence production by the end of 2026 [13]. 10. **Dividend Plans Amidst Falling Coal Prices**: While the dividend ratio will not be affected, the total dividend amount may decrease due to lower current prices compared to last year. However, the company’s long-term contracts mitigate significant performance fluctuations [14]. 11. **Long-term Resource Availability**: The group has substantial coal mine resources, with a total capacity of approximately 340 million tons, indicating potential for resource injection into the listed company [20]. 12. **Future Capital Expenditure Plans**: The company plans to maintain capital expenditures around 15 billion RMB over the next three years, primarily for ongoing projects [21]. 13. **Overall Profitability Amid Price Declines**: Despite a decline in coking coal prices, the company has maintained relative stability in profitability, with coking coal prices around 1,100 RMB/ton, slightly better than the market average [22]. Additional Important Content - **Market Dynamics**: The stability of current coal prices is influenced by various factors, including increased imports and the impact of renewable energy on thermal power demand [9][16]. - **Customer Compliance**: Even in a low market, customer compliance with contracts is expected to remain stable due to national policy requirements [15]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's operational status, market expectations, and strategic directions within the coal industry.

Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing significant supply contraction due to falling prices, with over 53.64% of coal companies reporting losses as of April 2025, the highest level since 2018 [1][20][22] - Electricity demand is expected to rebound with the onset of summer, as average daily power generation showed a year-on-year increase of 3.32% in mid-May 2025, despite a 14.37% decline in hydroelectric power generation [1][59] - A strong expectation for a rebound in thermal coal prices is anticipated as demand increases with rising temperatures, potentially peaking during the July-August consumption high [2][59] Supply and Demand Analysis - The coal supply has contracted significantly, with April 2025 coal production down 11.64% month-on-month, primarily due to reductions in output from regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [20][59] - The decline in coal imports, which fell by 16.4% year-on-year in April 2025, is expected to support the domestic market [24][26] - The overall supply reduction is greater than the demand decrease, indicating that coal prices are currently in an oversold state [20][21] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include industry leaders with stable performance such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as growth-oriented companies like Jinkong Coal and Shanmei International [3] - The report highlights the defensive value of leading companies with low debt and high cash flow, which are expected to benefit from market confidence and potential asset injections [2][3] Price Outlook - Thermal coal prices are expected to rebound due to seasonal demand increases and supply tightening, with a peak anticipated during the summer consumption high [2][59] - Coking coal prices are projected to stabilize, supported by a bottoming out of thermal coal prices and potential increases in export demand due to easing trade tensions [2][60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6]. Core Views - Port coal inventories are declining, and thermal coal prices have stopped falling. As of May 30, the coal inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim was 30.572 million tons, down 4.78% week-on-week but up 18.83% year-on-year. The average closing price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 611 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. The approaching summer peak electricity demand is expected to support a rebound in coal prices [1][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The average closing price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 611 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.03% week-on-week. The average price for mixed thermal coal at the pit in Yulin, Shaanxi, was 475 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [2]. Inventory Tracking - As of May 30, coal inventories at Qinhuangdao port were 6.75 million tons, down 7.53% week-on-week and up 42.41% year-on-year. The Bohai Rim port coal inventory was 30.572 million tons, down 4.78% week-on-week and up 18.83% year-on-year, indicating a high level for the same period [4][53]. Production and Utilization - The operating rate of 110 sample washing coal plants was 61.6%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week and down 7.3 percentage points year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 90.69%, down 0.63 percentage points week-on-week but up 2.52 percentage points year-on-year, with an average daily pig iron output of 2.4185 million tons, down 0.7% week-on-week but up 2.6% year-on-year [3][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the seasonal increase in electricity demand during the summer is likely to support a rebound in coal prices. It recommends companies with a high proportion of long-term contracts and stable profitability, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal mining sector is currently facing a prolonged downturn in prices, with market sentiment at a low point. However, there are signs of potential recovery as some production capacities are experiencing losses, indicating a gradual emergence of cost support. The industry is awaiting favorable policy changes to restore confidence [2][10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The coal mining market is experiencing a narrow adjustment with slight supply tightening in major production areas. Downstream demand remains primarily driven by essential needs [13] - Port inventories are continuously decreasing, but there is still a lack of upward momentum in prices due to limited demand from downstream buyers [14] - The shipping market has seen a slight increase in the number of vessels at northern ports, indicating some recovery in logistics [27] Key Companies - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and Xinji Energy (601918.SH), all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [9] - China Shenhua is highlighted as a central enterprise with strong performance, while companies like Qinfa and New Hope Energy are noted for their potential turnaround [10] Price Movements - As of May 30, the price of thermal coal at the port is reported at 620 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. However, the market is characterized by a lack of strong demand from power plants, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude [37] - Coking coal prices are under pressure, with significant declines observed in various grades, indicating a bearish market sentiment [40][53] Market Outlook - The report emphasizes that the coal industry will maintain its critical role in China's energy system during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The overall supply-demand balance is expected to remain stable, with a potential increase in industry concentration [37]