中信建投研报认为，美国11月CPI超预期降温，令市场对美联储2026年降息幅度有所上修，黄金、白 银、铂、钯等贵金属价格走强，锡、铜、铝等工业金属亦表现强势。金属价格上涨的背后，一面是充裕 的流动性，另一面是供给的强约束，推动商品价格不断挑战阶段性高点。 黄金需求创季度新高 今年以来，全球贵金属价格走势不平静，其中黄金和白银价格不断创出历史新高，今年11月在广州期货 交易所上市的钯和铂期货近期更是连续大涨。 贵金属价格大幅上涨 本周一（12月22日），全球贵金属主要品种集体上涨，截至17时，伦敦金现上涨近1.7%，盘中创下 4420.47美元/盎司的新高，年初至今上涨超68%；伦敦银现上涨超1.7%，盘中创出69.45美元/盎司的高 位，年初至今上涨近140%；现货铂金、现货钯金当天分别上涨超4%和近2%。 国内贵金属也大幅上涨。钯、铂期货主力合约当天均报收涨停，白银期货主力合约收盘上涨6.06%，年 内涨幅达到116.16%；黄金期货主力合约收盘再次突破100元/克，上涨2.1%，年内涨幅达到62.3%。 受贵金属价格集体上涨影响，A股、港股相关个股亦有明显涨幅。万得贵金属行业指数周一大涨4.2%， 共有3 ...

Summary of Aluminum Industry Research Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry in China, specifically tracking high-frequency demand trends and inventory levels from December 11 to December 17, 2025. The overall market expectation for demand recovery remains cautious [1]. Key Data Points Production - Total aluminum production in China was 857,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but showing a 3% increase year-over-year (YoY). Aluminum billet production was 362 kt, also flat WoW, with a 6% YoY increase [2]. - Year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production reached 43.1 million tons (mnt), up 2.8% YoY, while aluminum billet production totaled 17.6 mnt, up 6.1% YoY [2]. Inventory - As of December 18, 2025, total aluminum ingot and billet inventory was 844 kt, down 1% WoW but up 9% YoY. The inventory included 691 kt from social sources and 154 kt from producers, with respective changes of -2% and +8% WoW [3]. - Total aluminum ingot inventory was 614 kt, down 3% WoW and up 6% YoY, while aluminum billet inventory was 230 kt, up 7% WoW and 18% YoY [3]. Apparent Consumption - Overall aluminum apparent consumption in China was 894 kt during the week, down 2% WoW and 1% YoY. The apparent consumption of aluminum ingot and billet was 925 kt and 331 kt, respectively [4]. - YTD apparent consumption reached 44.4 mnt, reflecting a 4.1% YoY increase [4]. Core Insights - The report suggests that aluminum ingot and billet inventory data is more representative of overall aluminum demand, as it captures a broader range of inventory types. The total aluminum inventory decreased WoW, indicating a tighter supply compared to the same period in 2021, although it remains higher than in 2022-2024 [5]. - Apparent consumption levels were lower than in 2023 but higher than in 2022 and 2024 on the lunar calendar [7]. Investment Recommendations - Top picks in the aluminum sector include Hongqiao, Chalco H/A, Zijin Mining H/A, and CATL-A, reflecting a preference for companies with strong fundamentals and market positioning [1]. Risks - Key risks identified for the aluminum sector include: 1. Lower-than-expected aluminum and alumina prices [18][20]. 2. Higher-than-expected operational costs [18][20]. 3. Potential impairment losses [18][20]. 4. Changes in government policies regarding supply cuts if prices rise excessively [18][20]. Company Valuations - **Chalco A-share**: Target price set at RMB 14.77 per share, based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2.93x for 2026E, reflecting expected higher aluminum margins due to decreasing raw material costs [17]. - **Chalco H-share**: Target price of HK$ 12.41 per share, based on a PB ratio of 2.28x for 2026E [19]. - **CATL**: Valued at RMB 571 per share, based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.3x for 2026E [21]. - **China Hongqiao**: Target price of HK$ 36.00 per share, based on a PE ratio of 11.4x for 2026E [22]. - **Zijin Mining**: Target price of RMB 35.5 per share, based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation [25]. Conclusion - The aluminum industry in China is experiencing cautious demand recovery, with production and consumption trends indicating a complex market environment. Investment opportunities exist, particularly in companies with strong fundamentals, but potential risks must be carefully monitored.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Basic Materials** sector, particularly highlighting the performance of **lithium**, **copper**, **aluminum**, and **steel** industries [2][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - The **MSCI China Materials Index** outperformed the broader MSCI China Index, rallying **9%** from its November low, while the overall market saw a modest recovery of **0.2%** [2]. - **Commodity Price Dynamics**: - Lithium prices have surged, followed by gold and copper, while aluminum and coal have seen price pullbacks but remain resilient. Steel prices continue to face pressure [2]. - **Demand Verification**: As 2026 approaches, market focus is expected to shift towards verifying demand, with supply-side disruptions posing a significant upside risk [2]. - **Regulatory Uncertainty**: The proposed cancellation of **27 mining rights** in Jiangxi, including lithium-bearing porcelain clay mines, is expected to have minimal impact on supply as these licenses had already expired [2]. - **Environmental Impact Assessments**: The first environmental impact assessment by CATL was announced, which may delay the restart of operations compared to previous expectations [2]. - **Lithium Price Forecast**: Prices are expected to exceed **Rmb 120k** if market conditions tighten in **1Q26** [2]. Additional Important Insights - **Steel Production**: November crude steel output in China was down **10.9% YoY**, with cumulative output for the year being **38mt lower YoY**. The profitability of steel mills is under pressure, with only **36%** reporting profits [18]. - **Aluminum Production**: In November, aluminum production was stable at **3.8mt**, with exports rebounding to **570kt**. Prices have fluctuated between **Rmb 21,000-22,100** [28]. - **Coal Production**: November raw coal output increased by **5% MoM** to **427mt**, with imports rising to **44mt** despite a **20% YoY** decline [25]. - **Investment Trends**: The property market remains under pressure, with new housing starts falling **28% YoY** and a decline in national sales values by **28% YoY** [10]. Market Forecasts - **Lithium Demand**: The outlook for lithium demand remains strong, with a **23%** increase in spot lithium carbonate prices since early November, driven by robust downstream demand [35]. - **FAI Trends**: Total Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) for the first eleven months of 2025 dropped **2.6% YoY**, with real estate investment contracting **15.9% YoY** [14]. Valuation Comparisons - A comparison of global diversified mining valuations highlighted key players in the copper and aluminum sectors, with Zijin Mining and CMOC being favored [40]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the China Basic Materials sector.

Core Viewpoint - The rising international gold prices have led to increased activity in the mining sector, with Chinese companies actively acquiring overseas gold mining assets, reflecting a strategic shift towards gold as a key resource allocation focus [1][3][8]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of December 22, international gold prices reached a historic high of $4,420 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of approximately 68% [1]. - The surge in gold prices has prompted Chinese companies to intensify investments, with several firms announcing acquisitions of overseas gold mining assets in December alone [1]. Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - Chinese mining companies have announced overseas gold mine acquisitions totaling around 29.7 billion yuan this year, with projects spanning Africa, South America, and Central Asia [2]. - Notable acquisitions include Zijin Mining's $1.2 billion purchase of Kazakhstan's RG gold mine and Luoyang Molybdenum's ongoing acquisitions in Brazil and Ecuador [2][3]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The gold sector has become the most sought-after asset in the global mining M&A market, with gold asset transactions expected to account for 70% of the total mining industry deals in 2024 [5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized the need for Chinese companies to enhance their global operational capabilities and integrate into the global gold supply chain [3][6]. Group 4: Strategic Shifts in Companies - Luoyang Molybdenum has shifted its focus towards gold, investing significantly in gold assets despite previously selling a major copper-gold mine [8]. - Companies like Shengton Mining are also restructuring their gold business, indicating a broader trend among diversified mining firms to prioritize gold in their resource strategies [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The potential for several Chinese gold mining companies to enter the global top ten is anticipated, driven by ongoing acquisitions and strategic resource management [19][20]. - The establishment of favorable investment conditions in countries like Ecuador, along with the resumption of mining rights, is expected to further enhance the operational landscape for Chinese mining firms [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant increase in gold prices, which has led to heightened activity in the mining sector, particularly among Chinese companies seeking to acquire overseas gold assets. The international gold price reached a historic high of $4,420 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of approximately 68% [1]. Group 1: Gold Price and Market Activity - The international gold price has surpassed previous highs, with a notable increase in trading activity within the industry as prices rise [1]. - In December alone, several Chinese companies, including Jiangxi Copper, Lingbao Gold, and Luoyang Molybdenum, announced acquisitions of overseas gold mining assets [1]. Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - A total of 297 billion yuan has been allocated for new overseas gold mining acquisition projects by Chinese mining companies this year, with targets spread across Africa, South America, and Central Asia [2]. - Major acquisitions include Zijin Mining's $1.2 billion purchase of Kazakhstan's RG Gold Mine and Luoyang Molybdenum's ongoing acquisitions in Brazil and Ecuador, with total investments reaching 10.145 billion yuan [2][8]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes the need for Chinese enterprises to enhance international cooperation and integrate into the global gold supply chain [3][6]. - The article notes that gold has become the most sought-after asset in the global mining M&A market, with gold asset transactions expected to account for 70% of the mining industry's total in 2024 [5]. Group 4: Strategic Shifts in Mining Companies - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum are shifting their focus towards gold, as evidenced by their recent acquisitions despite previously selling off copper-gold assets [8]. - The article suggests that the trend of increasing gold asset acquisitions among Chinese mining companies will likely continue, driven by the high international gold prices and the strategic importance of gold in their resource portfolios [10][17].

| 代码 | 简称 | 收盘价（元） | 涨跌幅（%） | 特大单净流入（亿元） | 行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300308 | 中际旭创 | 617.50 | 8.01 | 26.40 | 通信 | | 600580 | 卧龙电驱 | 43.81 | 9.99 | 22.01 | 电力设备 | | 300502 | 新易盛 | 462.99 | 6.61 | 13.91 | 通信 | | 000572 | 海马汽车 | 9.36 | 9.99 | 10.08 | 汽车 | | 601138 | 工业富联 | 60.62 | 3.98 | 9.75 | 电子 | | 688981 | 中芯国际 | 120.45 | 6.00 | 9.04 | 电子 | | 601899 | 紫金矿业 | 32.53 | 4.53 | 8.02 | 有色金属 | | 600487 | 亨通光电 | 26.14 | 10.02 | 8.01 | 通信 | | 002792 | 通宇通讯 | 35.35 | 9.99 | 7.20 | 通信 | | 601888 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the trading activities in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, focusing on the top traded stocks, sector performances, and ETF transactions, indicating significant movements in capital flows and investor interest in specific sectors and stocks [1][2][5]. Trading Activity Summary - The total trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect reached 182.16 billion, with Zijin Mining and Zhongji Xuchuang leading in trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets respectively [1][2]. - The top ten stocks by trading volume in the Shanghai market included Zijin Mining (14.03 billion), Cambricon (13.68 billion), and Yangtze Power (12.01 billion) [3]. - In the Shenzhen market, Zhongji Xuchuang topped the list with a trading volume of 51.93 billion, followed by CATL (26.68 billion) and Xinyisheng (25.40 billion) [4]. Sector Performance - The communication sector saw the highest net inflow of capital, amounting to 70.98 billion, with a net inflow rate of 4.55% [6]. - Other sectors with notable net inflows included electronics (56.99 billion, 1.78%) and non-ferrous metals (26.31 billion, 2.03%) [6]. - Conversely, the computer sector experienced the largest net outflow of capital at -22.95 billion, with a net outflow rate of -2.01% [7][8]. ETF Trading Summary - The top traded ETFs included A500 ETF Huatai Baichuan with a trading volume of 137.47 billion, followed by A500 ETF Fund (122.69 billion) and Zhongzheng A500 ETF (108.32 billion) [13]. - The Zhongzheng A500 Index ETF saw a remarkable 309% increase in trading volume compared to the previous trading day [14]. - Over the past week, the A500 ETF Southern saw a significant increase in shares by 83.73 billion, leading the share growth among ETFs [15]. Institutional and Retail Activity - The article notes high activity from institutional investors, particularly in the commercial aerospace sector, with Tianyin Electromechanical receiving significant buying interest [19][20]. - Retail investors also showed notable activity, with substantial buying and selling in various stocks, including Haima Automobile and Tongyu Communication [21][23].

当进入商品价格上涨周期时，行业的整体交投活跃度便会迅速提升。 12月22日，国际金价续创历史新高。截至发稿前，伦敦金现货已经超越今年10月高点，最高价达到4420美元/盎司，年内涨幅进一步扩大至68%左右。 今年不断创出新高的金价，也吸引了更多的企业加大投资，仅今年12月便已经有江西铜业（600362.SH）、灵宝黄金（3330.HK）和洛阳钼业（603933.SH） 三家中资企业宣布收购海外黄金矿山等资产。 | | | 2025年中资矿企海外金矿收购案例 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 并购主体 | 相关资产 | 并购金额 | 折合人民币 | 公告日期 | 最新进展 | | 紫金矿业 | 哈萨克斯坦RG全矿 | 12亿美元 | 86亿元 | 6月10日 | 己完成 | | 洛阳铝业 | 厄瓜多尔Cangrejos金矿 | 5.81亿加元 | 29.75亿元 | 4月22日 | 己完成 | | | 巴西Aurizona金矿、RDM金矿、Bahia综合矿区 | 10.15亿美元 | 71.7亿元 | 12月15日 | 推进中 | | 感电矿业 | ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect reached a total of 182.16 billion yuan, with Zijin Mining and Zhongji Xuchuang leading in individual stock trading volume. The communication sector saw the highest net inflow of funds, while the banking ETF experienced a significant reduction in shares over the past three weeks [1][2][12]. Trading Volume - The total trading amount for the Shanghai Stock Connect was 81.04 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect totaled 101.12 billion yuan [2]. Top Trading Stocks - In the Shanghai Stock Connect, Zijin Mining topped the list with a trading volume of 14.03 billion yuan, followed by Cambricon Technologies at 13.68 billion yuan and Yangtze Power at 12.01 billion yuan [3]. - In the Shenzhen Stock Connect, Zhongji Xuchuang led with a trading volume of 5.193 billion yuan, followed by CATL at 2.668 billion yuan and Newray at 2.540 billion yuan [3]. Sector Performance - The communication sector had the highest net inflow of funds at 7.098 billion yuan, followed by the electronics sector with 5.699 billion yuan. In contrast, the computer sector saw the largest net outflow at -2.295 billion yuan [6][7]. ETF Trading - The top ETF by trading volume was the A500 ETF from Huatai-PB, with a trading amount of 13.747 billion yuan, showing a 2.86% increase from the previous trading day [8]. - The China Securities A500 Index ETF (563880) experienced a remarkable 309% increase in trading volume compared to the previous trading day, reaching 5.1981 billion yuan [9]. Share Changes in ETFs - The A500 ETF from Southern saw the largest increase in shares last week, with an increase of 8.373 billion shares, followed by the Huatai-PB A500 ETF with an increase of 7.08 billion shares [10]. - The banking ETF (512800) has seen a total reduction of 5.154 billion shares last week, amounting to a total decrease of 5.1 billion shares over the past three weeks [12]. Institutional Activity - The commercial aerospace concept stocks remained active, with Tianyin Electromechanical receiving 65.44 million yuan from two institutions, while it faced a sell-off of 64.87 million yuan from three institutions [14][15]. - The stock Shenong Agriculture saw a significant buy from four institutions amounting to 224 million yuan, indicating strong institutional interest in the Hainan Free Trade Zone concept [15].

Group 1 - Precious metals market experienced a significant surge on December 22, 2025, driven by interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical tensions, with gold reaching a new high of $4420 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 68% [1] - Silver prices soared to $69 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 140% increase for the year, also achieving a historical peak [1] - Platinum prices rose to $2074.1 per ounce, the highest since July 2008, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 127% [1] Group 2 - The A-share precious metals sector was activated, with the precious metals index rising by 4.2%, and notable gains from companies such as Hunan Silver and Xiaocheng Technology, which increased by over 7% [1][2] - Geopolitical tensions, including ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, have enhanced the safe-haven appeal of precious metals [3] - Analysts suggest that the expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts is a core support for rising precious metal prices, with silver showing greater price elasticity compared to gold [4] Group 3 - The strong performance of precious metals is accompanied by robust liquidity and supply constraints, pushing commodity prices to challenge high points [5] - The importance of basic raw materials for economic development is increasingly recognized by various countries, leading to potential tariff measures that could exacerbate regional supply gaps and further drive prices upward [5]