Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a collective rise, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading the gains, particularly highlighted by the significant performance of the Huabao non-ferrous ETF [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share non-ferrous metals sector has shown a remarkable increase of over 70% in 2025, outperforming the second-ranked communication sector by 0.7 percentage points as of December 16 [2] - The Huabao non-ferrous ETF (159876) saw a jump of 2.15%, nearing its listing high of 0.958 yuan [1][2] Group 2: Company Performance - The non-ferrous metals industry is characterized by a strong performance in upstream sectors compared to downstream, with a significant overall improvement in industry earnings [3] - In the first three quarters, 141 listed companies in the non-ferrous sector achieved a total revenue of 2.82 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.3%, while net profit surged by 41.55% to 151.29 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Policy and Future Outlook - The policy direction for the non-ferrous metals industry emphasizes high-quality development, with a target of an average annual growth of around 5% in value added by 2026 [3] - Major financial institutions predict that gold prices may challenge historical highs of $5,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by central bank purchases [3] - Citigroup anticipates that copper prices will continue to rise in 2026, supported by improving fundamentals and macroeconomic conditions [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - A diversified investment approach through the Huabao non-ferrous ETF and its associated funds is recommended to capture the overall sector performance while mitigating risks [4] - Leading companies in the copper and gold sectors, such as Hailiang Co. and Zijin Mining, have shown significant gains, indicating strong market momentum [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in the market have provided investors with opportunities to strategically position themselves for the upcoming "cross-year" market trends, particularly focusing on growth and dividend styles [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 22, 2025, the Shanghai 180 Index (000010) increased by 0.65%, with notable gains from stocks such as Tuojing Technology (688072) up by 6.39%, China Duty Free Group (601888) up by 6.27%, and Zijin Mining (601899) up by 4.95% [1]. - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund (530280) rose by 0.58%, with the latest price reported at 1.21 yuan [1]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests focusing on three main investment themes: 1. **Growth in AI Technology**: The AI sector is expected to transition into industrial applications, with opportunities in computing power, optical modules, and cloud computing infrastructure, particularly favoring domestic companies. Applications to watch include robotics, consumer electronics, smart driving, and software [2]. 2. **External Demand**: Companies with overseas expansion strategies are seen as reliable growth opportunities, particularly in sectors like home appliances, engineering machinery, commercial buses, power grid equipment, gaming, and non-ferrous metals [2]. 3. **Cyclical Reversal**: Attention is recommended on sectors nearing improvement in supply-demand dynamics or benefiting from policy support, such as chemicals, aquaculture, and new energy [2]. Group 3: Seasonal Trends and Market Catalysts - According to Huatai Securities, the upcoming spring market is anticipated to show positive momentum, driven by potential catalysts such as foreign capital position adjustments post-Christmas, the dense disclosure period for annual reports starting mid-January, and possible reserve requirement ratio cuts in January [3]. - The Shanghai 180 ETF closely tracks the Shanghai 180 Index, which comprises 180 large-cap, liquid stocks from the Shanghai market, reflecting the overall performance of core listed companies [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant rise in the non-ferrous metal industry, with the Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Index increasing by 2.22% and key stocks such as Silver Holdings rising by 8.69% and Zijin Mining by 4.95% [1] - Precious metals have reached new highs, with spot gold surpassing $4,382 per ounce, spot silver breaking the $68 per ounce mark, and platinum rising over 3% to $2,002.3 per ounce, marking a 120% increase this year [1] - Zhongyou Securities predicts that the gold market will likely continue to perform well in 2026 due to factors such as weakening dollar confidence, increasing chances of secondary inflation, and continued inflows into ETFs [1] Group 2 - The Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Index tracks 50 prominent securities in the non-ferrous metal sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [2] - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Index include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Northern Rare Earth, collectively accounting for 52.34% of the index [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant upward trend, particularly in the non-ferrous metal sector, with the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) showing a notable increase and substantial trading volume [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 9:58 AM, the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) opened with a gap up, rising by 2.5% and seeing a significant increase in trading volume, with 200,000 net subscriptions recorded during the session [1]. - Key stocks in the non-ferrous metal sector, such as Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold, have shown strong performance, with Zijin Mining increasing by 4.66% and Shandong Gold by 4.37% [2][4]. Group 2: Commodity Trends - Precious metals are experiencing a surge, with spot gold rising over 1% to exceed $4,383 per ounce, setting a new historical high, while silver has also reached a record of over $67 per ounce [3]. - The overall non-ferrous metal sector has seen an impressive increase of over 85% this year, indicating a strong market performance [4]. Group 3: Economic and Policy Context - Following the December Federal Reserve policy decisions, a monthly operation of $40 billion in reserve management purchases is expected to provide liquidity support to the market [7]. - The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% to combat rising inflation, marking the highest rate in 30 years [7]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted as a leading investment vehicle, covering a wide range of metals including gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing super cycle in the non-ferrous sector [18][20]. - The ETF has a high concentration of key metals, with copper accounting for 31% and gold for 14%, making it a competitive option in the market [20]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by factors such as declining real interest rates and increasing central bank gold purchases, with forecasts suggesting gold prices could exceed $4,500 per ounce in the near future [15][16]. - The copper market is also expected to see a growing supply-demand gap, with projections indicating that copper prices may reach new highs due to robust demand from emerging sectors like AI and renewable energy [16][17].

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Insights - The phenomenon of gold, copper, aluminum, and iron equities lagging behind commodity prices is expected to change, with market expectations for mid-term price increases strengthening as commodity prices reach new highs [7][11]. - The gold sector is anticipated to benefit from rising commodity prices and inflation expectations due to a decline in non-farm employment, which has increased the likelihood of interest rate cuts [7][11]. - The copper sector is viewed positively due to the demand for traditional power grid upgrades, which is expected to support copper consumption and create a supply-demand imbalance favoring copper prices [12]. - The aluminum sector is expected to see price increases following the closure of the Mozal aluminum plant and the high copper-aluminum price ratio, which is likely to drive demand for aluminum as a substitute for copper [13]. - The steel sector is poised to benefit from the introduction of export license management for certain steel products, which may encourage a shift towards higher value-added product exports [14]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - Supply and demand fundamentals are weak in the off-season, but steel profitability is showing signs of recovery [15]. - Iron output has slightly decreased, while steel demand has shown marginal improvement, with rebar consumption increasing by 2.73% week-on-week [20]. - Overall steel prices have seen a slight increase, with the rebar price rising to 3345 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.87% [33]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in November 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 84.78%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [37]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales of new energy passenger cars in October 2025 showing year-on-year growth of 19.94% and 18.65%, respectively [41]. Price Trends - The report notes a general increase in metal prices, with lithium and cobalt prices rising significantly, while nickel prices have shown mixed trends [46].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a collective rise, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading the gains, particularly highlighted by the significant increase in the Huabao ETF [1][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 22, the A-share major indices collectively rose, with the non-ferrous metals sector showing the highest gains, particularly the Huabao ETF which saw a jump of 2.15% [1][10]. - The Huabao ETF's current price is close to its listing high of 0.958 yuan, indicating strong market interest [1][10]. Group 2: Sector Leaders - In the non-ferrous metals sector, leading companies such as Hailiang Co. and Baiyin Nonferrous Metals surged over 6%, while Zijin Mining rose more than 4% [3][12]. - Gold sector leaders including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold also saw increases exceeding 3% [3][12]. Group 3: Industry Fundamentals - The non-ferrous metals industry is characterized by a clear trend of upstream strength over midstream and downstream, driven by rising commodity prices and structural growth in downstream demand [5][14]. - In the first three quarters, 141 listed companies in the non-ferrous sector achieved a total revenue of 2.82 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.3%, with net profit increasing by 41.55% to 151.29 billion yuan [5][14]. Group 4: Policy Outlook - The policy direction for the non-ferrous metals industry emphasizes high-quality development, with a target of an average annual growth of 5% in value-added output by 2026 [5][14]. - The "Stable Growth" initiative is a key focus, with plans for the production of ten types of non-ferrous metals to grow by 1.5% annually and recycled metal production to exceed 20 million tons [5][14]. Group 5: Future Projections - Analysts predict that non-ferrous and precious metals will be at the forefront of the upward trend in 2026, with gold prices potentially challenging the historical high of $5,000 per ounce [5][14]. - Citigroup forecasts that copper prices will continue to rise in 2026, supported by improving fundamentals and macroeconomic conditions [5][14]. Group 6: Investment Strategy - A diversified investment approach through the Huabao ETF, which covers various non-ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, is recommended to mitigate risks [7][15]. - This strategy allows investors to capture the overall sector performance while reducing exposure to individual metal price fluctuations [7][15].

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining has experienced a stock price increase of 5.01% on December 22, reaching 32.68 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 2.715 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.41%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 868.952 billion CNY. The stock has risen for three consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 2.64% during this period [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. is located at multiple addresses in Fujian Province and was established on September 6, 2000, with its listing date on April 25, 2008. The company primarily engages in mineral resource exploration and development [1] - The revenue composition of Zijin Mining includes smelting products at 60.94%, mineral products at 36.48%, other revenues at 16.83%, and trading at 8.02% [1] Group 2: Fund Holdings - According to data from the top ten holdings of funds, Ruiyuan Fund has a significant position in Zijin Mining, with its Ruiyuan Steady Configuration Two-Year Holding Mixed A Fund (014362) holding 1.9 million shares, accounting for 1.2% of the fund's net value, ranking as the eighth largest holding. The fund has realized a floating profit of approximately 2.964 million CNY today, with a floating profit of 1.52 million CNY during the three-day increase [2] - The Ruiyuan Steady Configuration Two-Year Holding Mixed A Fund was established on December 6, 2021, with a current scale of 3.106 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are 15.76%, ranking 4832 out of 8170 in its category, while the one-year return is 16.22%, ranking 4579 out of 8139. Since inception, the fund has achieved a return of 21.51% [2] Group 3: Fund Manager Information - The fund managers of Ruiyuan Steady Configuration Two-Year Holding Mixed A Fund are Rao Gang and Hou Zhenxin. Rao Gang has a cumulative tenure of 19 years and 350 days, managing a total fund size of 4.651 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 158.46% and the worst being 0.67% [3] - Hou Zhenxin has a cumulative tenure of 2 years and 339 days, managing a total fund size of 28.437 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 26.47% and the worst being 16.8% [3]

Group 1 - Platinum prices reached a peak of $1987 per ounce on December 19, marking the highest level since late July 2008, with an annual increase of over 110% [1] - Silver prices surged above $67.49 per ounce, setting a new historical high [1] - The SHFE gold price hit 987 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) rose by 0.96% as of December 22, 2025, with notable increases in stocks such as Yahua Group (002497) up 1.90%, and China Aluminum (601600) up 1.84% [1] - The Nonferrous Metals ETF (159880) increased by 0.77%, with the latest price at 1.84 yuan [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Nonferrous Metals Industry Index account for 52.34% of the index, including Zijin Mining (601899) and China Aluminum (601600) [2]

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 21 日 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年12月19日 华源晨会精粹 20251221 新消费 密集政策提振消费，海南自由贸易港封关运作正式启动——新消费行业周 报：扩大内需是战略之举，消费有关政策频出：中央经济工作会议提出八项明年经 济工作的重点任务，其中第一项重点任务为坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。12 月 15 日，《求是》杂志发表文章《扩大内需是战略之举》，文章强调要"牢牢把握 扩大内需这一战略基点"，阐明了扩大内需对发展全局的基础支撑作用。商务部等 9 部门发布《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，提出五方面 19 条举措。商务部、 中国人民银行、金融监管总局联合发布《关于加强商务和金融协同，更大力度提振 消费的通知》。海南自由贸易港全岛封关运作正式启动，中免发布多重礼遇。根据 中免海南战报，12 月 18 日封关首日中免海南销售额超 2.5 亿元，同比增长 90%。 2025 年 1-11 月美容护肤品牌格局：TOP5 品牌主要由珀莱雅、欧莱雅、韩束、兰 蔻、 ...