证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 01 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一 年 低 | | | 12.29/8.66 | | | | 最 | | 高 | 内 | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | 189,842.66 | | | | | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | 174,292.72 | | | | | | | | | | | 总股本（百万股） ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 77.272 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.09%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.777 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.38% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 20.273 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.70%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.137 billion yuan, an increase of 2.55% [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The average on-grid electricity prices for nuclear, solar, and wind power in 2024 were approximately 0.4151, 0.4466, and 0.3885 yuan per kilowatt-hour, respectively, with changes of +0.4, -0.09, and -0.03 yuan compared to 2023 [2] - The company's income tax expenses for 2024 were 6.011 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 68.34%, primarily due to the provision for value-added tax refunds affecting income tax expenses [2] Power Generation and Capacity - The total on-grid electricity for 2024 was 203.923 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 3.28%, with nuclear power generation at 171.260 billion kilowatt-hours, a decrease of 1.83% [1] - The company has 18 nuclear power units under construction or awaiting approval as of December 31, 2024, with a total installed capacity of 20.641 million kilowatts [3] Future Growth Prospects - The company plans to commission the Zhangzhou Nuclear Power Unit 2 in 2025, with additional units expected to come online in 2026 and 2027, indicating strong growth potential [3] - The company forecasts net profits of 9.6 billion, 10.3 billion, and 11.4 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 9.42%, 7.32%, and 10.77%, respectively [3]

4月27日，中国核电召开第五届董事会第三次会议，审议通过公司股东全国社会保障基金理事会、中国国新控股有限责任公司(以下简称社保基金会、中国国新)提名非独立董事候选人的议案，该 今年政府工作报告中明确提出，"深化资本市场投融资综合改革，大力推动中长期资金入市"。随着一系列相关政策的出台，资本市场支持中长期资金入市已从蓝图变为实践，充分发挥其作为维护 中长期资本也在以更积极多元的方式参与企业治理，推动上市公司质量提升。本次社保基金会、中国国新向中国核电提名董事候选人正是其生动实践，也是中国核电发展历程中的一次重大飞跃。 中国核电是国内核能发电领军企业，拥有三大核心产业：核能、非核清洁能源和战略性新兴产业。近年来，中国核电加快华龙一号、高温堆、快堆、小堆等堆型以及同位素生产技术革新，数字化 ...

Group 1 - The China Power Utility Index has seen a decline of 0.85% as of April 30, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, including Shenzhen Energy leading with a rise of 2.73% [1] - The Power ETF (159611) has shown a cumulative increase of 0.63% over the past week, with a trading volume of 188 million yuan and a turnover rate of 5.64% on the latest trading day [1] - The Power ETF has experienced significant growth in scale, increasing by 1.641 billion yuan over the past six months, ranking first among comparable funds [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Power Utility Index account for 55.94% of the index, with major players including Changjiang Electric Power and China Nuclear Power [2] - The five major power generation groups reported profits in 2024, with Guodian Power distributing cash dividends of 3.567 billion yuan, representing 36.28% of its net profit [2] - The power and utility sector is recognized for its stability and defensive characteristics, with expectations for favorable fiscal and monetary policies in 2025 to support high dividend, low valuation assets [2] Group 3 - The National Energy Administration anticipates a rapid increase in national electricity load during the summer of 2025, with a projected year-on-year increase of approximately 10 million kilowatts [3] - The total electricity consumption in China is expected to reach 10.4 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2025, with a growth rate of around 6% [3] - Recommendations have been made to focus on investment opportunities in the power sector, particularly in light of potential supply pressures during peak periods [3]

在能源结构持续向低碳化、安全性与稳定性并重的背景下，核电作为重要的清洁基荷能源正重回政策与 资本的双重焦点。2024年，在传统能源承压、新能源竞争加剧的大环境下，中国核电(601985.SH)交出 了一份稳健中有增长、扩张中控节奏的财报，展现出作为"清洁能源央企梯队中第二核心资产"的长期潜 力。 营收稳中有升，现金流优异，盈利能力保持韧性 根据公司2024年年报，中国核电全年实现营业收入772.72亿元，同比增长3.09%；实现利润总额225.64 亿元，同比微降1.82%；净利润为165.53亿元，其中归属于母公司股东的净利润为87.77亿元，同比下降 17.38%。尽管盈利短期承压，但整体仍维持在历史高位，显示出良好的基本盘和管理韧性。 这一"高位稳住"的表现，是否意味着公司穿越周期的能力已被市场低估？从长期视角看，中国核电的盈 利节奏值得重新审视。 从图中可以看出，中国核电近十年归母净利润整体呈"阶梯式上行"。2015至2019年，公司每年都在稳步 增长，节奏不急不躁，却非常扎实，体现了电力运营央企在政策、电价与成本周期变化中的强抗压能 力；2020年起，公司进入新一轮装机投产周期，盈利水平迎来明显抬升 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Nuclear Power (601985), expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][22]. Core Views - The report highlights a 3% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025, with new projects receiving approval, ensuring long-term growth potential [1]. - The company is expected to see a revenue increase from 77.27 billion yuan in 2024 to 84.87 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 9.8% [2]. - The report emphasizes the company's robust pipeline of projects under construction, which is anticipated to support its medium to long-term growth trajectory [6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit**: In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 77.27 billion yuan, a 3.09% increase year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.77 billion yuan, down 17.4% year-on-year [6][7]. - **Quarterly Performance**: For Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 3.14 billion yuan, a 2.55% increase year-on-year, with revenue reaching 20.27 billion yuan, up 12.7% year-on-year [6][7]. - **Electricity Generation**: The total electricity generated in 2024 was 203.92 billion kWh, a 3.28% increase year-on-year, with a significant growth in renewable energy generation [6]. Project Pipeline and Growth Potential - The report notes that as of March 31, 2025, the company has 26 operational nuclear power units with a total capacity of 24.96 million kW and 17 units under construction or approved, with a capacity of 19.43 million kW [6]. - The recent approval of two new nuclear units at the Zhejiang Sanmen Nuclear Power Project is expected to further enhance the company's growth prospects [6]. Valuation and Price Target - The report adjusts the earnings forecast for 2025 to 10.5 billion yuan and for 2026 to 11.5 billion yuan, with a new target price set at 10.7 yuan, indicating a 15% upside from the current price of 9.33 yuan [2][6].

中国核电（601985.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 所得税影响 24 年业绩，Q1 核电业绩符合预期 2025 年 04 月 30 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 4 月 29 日，公司发布 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报。2024 营收 772.72 亿元，同比+3.09%；归母净利 87.77 亿元，同比-17.38%；基本每 股收益 0.463 元。24Q4 公司营收 202.9 亿元，同比+7.5%；归母净利润亏损 1.56 亿元，同比-112.0%。25Q1 公司营收 202.73 亿元，同比+12.7%；归母净 利 31.37 亿元，同比+2.55%。 ➢ 所得税费用影响 24Q4 业绩，新能源利润下滑拉低 25Q1 业绩增速。24 年 公司所得税费用同比增加 24.4 亿元，主要系计提增值税返还对应所得税费用所 致，相关税费已于期后完成缴纳。25Q1 新能源收入同比+24.64%，但因新能源 增收不增利，且新能源上年发行两期类 REITS、市场化债转股稀释归母净利润， 增资引战导致归母比例下降，最终 Q1 归母净利润同比-51.32%；核电业务收入 同比+10.46%，归 ...

中国核电（601985.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 所得税影响 24 年业绩，Q1 核电业绩符合预期 2025 年 04 月 30 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 4 月 29 日，公司发布 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报。2024 营收 772.72 亿元，同比+3.09%；归母净利 87.77 亿元，同比-17.38%；基本每 股收益 0.463 元。24Q4 公司营收 202.9 亿元，同比+7.5%；归母净利润亏损 1.56 亿元，同比-112.0%。25Q1 公司营收 202.73 亿元，同比+12.7%；归母净 利 31.37 亿元，同比+2.55%。 ➢ 所得税费用影响 24Q4 业绩，新能源利润下滑拉低 25Q1 业绩增速。24 年 公司所得税费用同比增加 24.4 亿元，主要系计提增值税返还对应所得税费用所 致，相关税费已于期后完成缴纳。25Q1 新能源收入同比+24.64%，但因新能源 增收不增利，且新能源上年发行两期类 REITS、市场化债转股稀释归母净利润， 增资引战导致归母比例下降，最终 Q1 归母净利润同比 ...

公用事业/电力 中国核电（601985.SH） 2024 年业绩不及预期，核电核准进入常态化阶段 2025 年 04 月 30 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/29 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 9.33 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 12.29/8.66 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,918.99 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,761.81 | | 总股本(亿股) | 205.68 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 188.83 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 28.98 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 中国核电 沪深300 相关研究报告 《核电加速核准，风光多线布局，开 启新一轮成长—公司首次覆盖报告》 -2024.11.26 周磊（分析师） zhoulei1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524090002 公司发布 2024 年报&2025 一季报，2024 年计提大量所得税导致业绩不及预期 2024 年公司实现营业收入 772. ...

公用事业/电力 中国核电（601985.SH） 2024 年业绩不及预期，核电核准进入常态化阶段 2025 年 04 月 30 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/29 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 9.33 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 12.29/8.66 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,918.99 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,761.81 | | 总股本(亿股) | 205.68 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 188.83 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 28.98 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 中国核电 沪深300 相关研究报告 《核电加速核准，风光多线布局，开 启新一轮成长—公司首次覆盖报告》 -2024.11.26 周磊（分析师） zhoulei1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524090002 公司发布 2024 年报&2025 一季报，2024 年计提大量所得税导致业绩不及预期 2024 年公司实现营业收入 772. ...