| 证券代码：601985 | 证券简称：中国核电 | | | 公告编号：2025-039 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：138547 | 债券简称：22 | 核电 | Y2 | | 一、2025 年 4 月 28 日登记在册的公司前十大股东持股情况 | 序号 | 股东名称 | 持股数量（股） | 占总股本的比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | （%） | | 3 | 国新产业资本管理有限公司 | 626,212,254 | 3.04 | | 4 | 香港中央结算有限公司 | 504,978,842 | 2.46 | | 5 | 浙江浙能电力股份有限公司 | 465,574,629 | 2.26 | | 6 | 中国证券金融股份有限公司 | 465,406,674 | 2.26 | | 7 | 太平人寿保险有限公司－传统 －普通保险产品－022L-CT001 | 242,285,502 | 1.18 | | | 沪 | | | | 8 | 中国工商银行－上证 交易型 50 | 169,903,562 | 0.83 | ...

Core Viewpoint - China Nuclear Power (601985), one of the largest nuclear power operators in China, has reported a decline in net profit despite a slight increase in revenue for 2024, indicating a significant divergence between revenue growth and profit performance [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, China Nuclear Power's operating revenue increased by 3.09% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.38%, highlighting a concerning trend of revenue growth not translating into profit [2]. - The company's net cash flow from operating activities also fell by 5.58% year-on-year, marking a second consecutive year of decline in cash flow [2]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 dropped to 3.97%, the lowest level in the past decade, with the first quarter of 2024 showing a mere 1.22% gross margin [2]. Cost and Efficiency Issues - Rising electricity costs have been identified as a key factor contributing to the decline in net profit and gross margin [4]. ESG Performance - The carbon emission density increased to 0.016 tons of CO2 equivalent per ten thousand yuan of industrial output in 2024, the highest level in three years [5][6]. - The proportion of R&D personnel decreased to 20.87%, the lowest in four years, indicating potential challenges in innovation and talent retention [5]. - Employee turnover rate remained above 1% from 2022 to 2024, with 2024's rate at 1.07%, which is higher compared to peers like Yangtze Power (0.3%) and China General Nuclear Power (1.01%) [5]. Shareholder Returns and Dividends - The company has not implemented any share buybacks since 2020, despite the launch of initiatives aimed at enhancing shareholder returns [7]. - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 was 41.80%, with a cash dividend total of 36.69 billion yuan, but the dividend yield has declined for two consecutive years, reaching a low of 1.73% in 2024 [8][9]. - Cumulatively, the company has raised over 426 billion yuan since its IPO, significantly exceeding its total dividend payouts of 242.81 billion yuan, indicating a weaker commitment to shareholder returns [8].

Group 1 - The liquidity of the green power ETF showed a turnover of 2.76% with a transaction volume of 10.0083 million yuan [2] - The green power ETF experienced a significant growth in scale, increasing by 165 million yuan over the past three months [2] - In terms of shares, the green power ETF saw an increase of 18.4 million shares in the last month, indicating substantial growth [2] Group 2 - The latest net inflow of funds into the green power ETF was 9.3737 million yuan, with a total of 19.8745 million yuan accumulated over the last 18 trading days [2] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the index tracked by the green power ETF is currently at 18.37, which is in the 12.08% percentile over the past three years, indicating a historical low valuation [2] - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Green Power Index account for 58.04% of the index, including major companies like Yangtze Power and China Nuclear Power [2] Group 3 - The domestic public bidding market for wind power in Q1 2025 saw a new bidding volume of 28.6 GW, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [3] - Wind turbine exports from China reached 14.6 million USD in March, with a month-on-month increase of 86.81% and a year-on-year increase of 50.54% [3] - The international bidding volume for Chinese wind turbine manufacturers is projected to reach 27.63 GW in 2024, showing a nearly 200% year-on-year growth [3]

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 index components showed mixed performance with insurance and liquor sectors rising, while banking and semiconductor sectors had varied results, and the power sector weakened [1][4]. Insurance Sector - China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, and China Life Insurance had market capitalizations of CNY 293.04 billion, CNY 931.09 billion, and CNY 319.74 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 557 million, CNY 1.019 billion, and CNY 389 million [3]. - China Pacific Insurance rose by 2.04%, Ping An by 0.83%, and China Life by 2.41% [3]. Liquor Industry - Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Xinghuacun Fenjiu had market capitalizations of CNY 1,950.62 billion, CNY 249.58 billion, and CNY 502.40 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 1.656 billion, CNY 506 million, and CNY 1.114 billion [3]. - Kweichow Moutai increased by 0.37%, Wuliangye by 0.24%, and Shanxi Xinghuacun by 0.57% [3]. Semiconductor Sector - Northern Huachuang, Cambricon Technologies, and Haiguang Information had market capitalizations of CNY 243.10 billion, CNY 292.64 billion, and CNY 346.81 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 979 million, CNY 2.570 billion, and CNY 1.077 billion [3]. - Northern Huachuang rose by 0.92%, while Cambricon Technologies fell by 0.37% and Haiguang Information increased by 0.41% [3]. Automotive Sector - BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway had market capitalizations of CNY 196.10 billion, CNY 284.33 billion, and CNY 1,095.37 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 3.165 billion, CNY 192 million, and CNY 285 million [3]. - BYD increased by 2.08%, Great Wall Motors by 1.46%, while Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway decreased by 0.34% [3]. Power Sector - China Yangtze Power, China Nuclear Power, and China Power had market capitalizations of CNY 713.74 billion, CNY 191.08 billion, and CNY 332.60 billion respectively, with trading volumes of CNY 1.589 billion, CNY 405 million, and CNY 4.380 billion [4]. - China Nuclear Power rose by 2.43%, while China Yangtze Power fell by 1.12% [4]. Other Sectors - Various sectors including food and beverage, electronics, and pharmaceuticals showed diverse performances with notable market capitalizations and trading volumes [4][5].

证券分析师 袁理 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电力 中国核电（601985） 2024 年报&2025 一季报点评：所得税影响 24 年业绩，25Q1 核电业绩增长强劲 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 74,957 | 77,272 | 81,782 | 86,582 | 97,201 | | 同比（%） | 5.15 | 3.09 | 5.84 | 5.87 | 12.26 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 10,624 | 8,777 | 10,044 | 10,398 | 11,591 | | 同比（%） | 17.91 | (17.38) | 14.43 | 3.52 | 11.48 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.52 | 0.43 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.56 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 17.87 | 21.63 | 18.90 | 18.26 | ...

| [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 74,957 | 77,272 | 81,782 | 86,582 | 97,201 | | 同比（%） | 5.15 | 3.09 | 5.84 | 5.87 | 12.26 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 10,624 | 8,777 | 10,044 | 10,398 | 11,591 | | 同比（%） | 17.91 | (17.38) | 14.43 | 3.52 | 11.48 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.52 | 0.43 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.56 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 17.87 | 21.63 | 18.90 | 18.26 | 16.38 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电力 中国核电（601985） 2024 年报&2025 一季报点评：所得 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant achievements and advancements of China's "Hualong One" nuclear technology over the past decade, showcasing its transition from a follower to a leader in the global nuclear power industry, with a focus on safety, efficiency, and international collaboration [1][11]. Group 1: Development and Achievements - "Hualong One" has seen the successful operation of 7 units domestically and internationally, with a total of 41 units either in operation or under construction globally [1][2]. - The first "Hualong One" unit has achieved nearly 1000 days of safe operation, generating approximately 65 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, demonstrating its operational excellence [7][11]. - The construction of the first unit was completed in just 68.7 months, setting a global record for the construction of third-generation nuclear power plants [4]. Group 2: Technical Innovations - The "Hualong One" design features a rated power of over 1100 MWe, a lifespan of 60 years, and advanced safety measures, including the ability to withstand a magnitude 9 earthquake and protection against large aircraft impacts [2][3]. - The development process involved the establishment of a comprehensive standard system and a robust intellectual property framework, including over 700 domestic patents and 65 international patents [3]. Group 3: International Expansion - The "Hualong One" technology has been successfully implemented in the K-2/K-3 units at the Karachi Nuclear Power Plant in Pakistan, providing clean electricity for approximately 2 million people and creating over 60,000 local jobs [9][10]. - The project is recognized as a model for international energy cooperation, significantly contributing to Pakistan's energy structure and reducing carbon emissions [9]. Group 4: Talent Development - The establishment of the Hualong International Training Center aims to cultivate skilled personnel for the nuclear industry, with 538 operators and 293 senior operators trained to date [8][10]. - The training initiatives support the ongoing development and international deployment of "Hualong One" technology, enhancing the competitiveness of the Chinese nuclear industry [10].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the industry [10] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a mixed performance across various sectors within the public utility and environmental protection industry, with coal prices declining and water supply improving, reshaping the defensive value of water and coal [3] - The overall electricity consumption growth slowed down due to a warm winter and high base effects from the previous year, impacting thermal power generation negatively [4][29] - The renewable energy sector faces profit pressure due to declining utilization rates and electricity prices, despite significant installed capacity growth [4][52] - Hydropower benefits from improved water supply and reservoir management, leading to increased revenue and profit in early 2025 [5][7] - The environmental sector shows stable performance in water and solid waste operations, with a recovery in water profitability in early 2025 [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of 2024 Reports and 2025 Q1 - The electricity industry saw a 6.7% growth in consumption in 2024, driven by structural optimization and rising demand for new energy sources [16] - The environmental sector experienced a revenue decline of 2.7% and a net profit drop of 31% in 2024, with operational efficiency improvements in existing assets [16] 2. Sector Performance from 2024 to Q1 2025 2.1 Thermal Power - Thermal power generation faced pressure from electricity prices and demand, but benefited from lower coal prices, leading to a net profit increase of 6.5% in Q1 2025 [4][36][37] 2.2 Renewable Energy - The renewable energy sector's profit was under pressure due to declining utilization rates and electricity prices, despite a 15.7% increase in wind power generation in 2024 [4][52] 2.3 Hydropower - Hydropower generation increased by 11.7% in 2024, with a significant profit increase in Q1 2025 due to improved water supply [5][7] 2.4 Environmental Protection - The environmental sector showed stable performance in water and solid waste operations, with a recovery in profitability in early 2025 [5][6] 3. Key Companies in the Sector - Focus on leading companies in thermal power, hydropower, and nuclear power, such as Huadian International, Yangtze Power, and China Nuclear Power, respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong growth outlook due to continuous expansion in nuclear and renewable energy generation capacity [4][6]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 77.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.09%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.38% to 8.77 billion yuan. For Q1 2025, revenue reached 20.27 billion yuan, up 12.70% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.14 billion yuan, an increase of 2.55% [1][2]. - The total operational power generation in 2024 was 216.35 billion kWh, a 3.09% increase year-on-year, with nuclear power generation slightly declining by 1.80% to 183.12 billion kWh due to increased maintenance and typhoon impacts [2][3]. - The company is expanding its nuclear and renewable energy capacity significantly, with plans to commission 12 new nuclear units from 2025 to 2029 and a substantial increase in renewable energy capacity under construction [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 77.27 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 3.09%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.77 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 17.38% [1][5]. - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 20.27 billion yuan, marking a 12.70% increase year-on-year, while the net profit was 3.14 billion yuan, up 2.55% [1]. Power Generation - In 2024, the cumulative operational power generation was 2163.49 billion kWh, with nuclear power generation at 1831.22 billion kWh, down 1.80% year-on-year. Renewable energy generation saw a significant increase of 42.21% to 332.27 billion kWh [2][3]. - For Q1 2025, the company generated 494.82 billion kWh from nuclear and 102.60 billion kWh from renewable sources, representing year-on-year growth of 13.30% and 38.35%, respectively [2]. Capacity Expansion - The company plans to expand its nuclear capacity with 12 new units scheduled for commissioning from 2025 to 2029. Additionally, it has 14.36 million kW of renewable energy capacity under construction, a 47.60% increase year-on-year [3][4]. - The recent approval of two new nuclear units in Zhejiang adds 2.43 million kW to the company's capacity [3]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects a decrease in net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 due to expected declines in long-term electricity prices, with revised net profit forecasts of 10.44 billion yuan and 11.26 billion yuan, respectively [4][5]. - The estimated EPS for 2025 is 0.51 yuan, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 18 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The significant increase in income tax expenses has negatively impacted profitability, but the existing nuclear power projects ensure stable growth [5] - The company reported a revenue of 77.27 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.09%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.38% to 8.78 billion yuan [7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.16 yuan per share for 2024, with a payout ratio of 41.9%, an increase of approximately 7 percentage points year-on-year [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2023: 74.96 billion yuan - 2024: 77.27 billion yuan - 2025E: 84.54 billion yuan - 2026E: 88.54 billion yuan - 2027E: 99.29 billion yuan - Year-on-Year Growth Rates: - 2023: 5.15% - 2024: 3.09% - 2025E: 9.41% - 2026E: 4.73% - 2027E: 12.13% [6] - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2023: 10.62 billion yuan - 2024: 8.78 billion yuan - 2025E: 9.99 billion yuan - 2026E: 10.50 billion yuan - 2027E: 11.28 billion yuan - Year-on-Year Growth Rates: - 2023: 17.91% - 2024: -17.38% - 2025E: 13.89% - 2026E: 5.05% - 2027E: 7.41% [6] Operational Highlights - In 2024, the company achieved a nuclear power generation volume of 183.12 billion kWh, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year, primarily due to increased maintenance at the Fuqing Nuclear Power Plant [7] - The company completed a renewable energy generation volume of 33.23 billion kWh in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 42.21% [7] - The marketization ratio of nuclear power reached 50.78%, an increase of 8.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the renewable energy marketization ratio reached 66.43%, an increase of 7.31 percentage points year-on-year [7] Future Outlook - The company has received approval for 10 new nuclear power units, bringing the total number of units under construction or approved to 19, which is expected to support stable long-term growth [7] - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is expected to be 10.00 billion yuan, 10.50 billion yuan, and 11.28 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 13.9%, 5.1%, and 7.4% [7]