南华期货碳酸锂数据日报 2025年12月18日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 一、期货数据 碳酸锂期货主力合约 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 碳酸锂期货主力合约收盘价 碳酸锂期货主力合约成交量(右轴) 碳酸锂期货主力合约持仓量(右轴) 手 24/12 25/01 25/02 25/03 25/04 25/05 25/06 25/07 25/08 25/09 25/10 25/11 60000 80000 100000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 碳酸锂期货数据 | 指标 | 本期值 | 日涨跌 | 日环比 | 周涨跌 | 周环比 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 106160 | -2460 | -2.26% | 7280 | 7.36% | 元/吨 | | 主力合约成交量 | 1013916 | -144695 | - ...

Market Overview - A total of 61 stocks hit the daily limit up, while 19 stocks faced limit down, resulting in a sealing rate of 76% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.29% and 2.17% respectively [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.66 trillion, a decrease of 155.7 billion from the previous trading day [1] Stock Performance - Baida Group achieved a six-day limit up streak, while Shengtong Energy and Pinao recorded five and four consecutive limit ups respectively [1][3] - The number of stocks advancing was nearly 2900, with notable performances in the pharmaceutical, banking, and retail sectors [1] - The commercial aerospace concept saw a resurgence, with stocks like Shunhao and Xibu Materials hitting limit up after previous declines [3][5] Sector Analysis - The pharmaceutical commercial sector experienced significant growth due to increased orders amid a rise in respiratory diseases during the winter season [14][15] - The retail sector, particularly driven by the "reward economy," showed strong performance with stocks like Baida Group and Nanjing Shanglv achieving consecutive limit ups [6][12] - The AI healthcare sector remained active, with Ant Group's AI health app "Antifortune" gaining popularity, leading to limit ups for companies like Meian Health and Huaren Health [7][19] Investment Themes - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a strategic emerging industry, with government support and recent rocket launches boosting investor sentiment [5] - The "reward economy" is emerging as a new consumption model among younger demographics, contributing to the growth of related sectors [6][12] - The IP economy is gaining traction, with government initiatives aimed at promoting new consumption models and financial support for innovative businesses [16] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue experiencing volatility, with a focus on small-cap stocks and growth sectors as larger stocks face profit-taking [9] - The Shanghai Composite Index is attempting to recover above key moving averages, indicating potential for further upward movement if trading volume increases [9]

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.16% on December 18, with 12 industries experiencing gains, led by the banking and coal sectors, which increased by 1.97% and 1.89% respectively [1] - The power equipment industry saw the largest decline, dropping by 2.22%, with a net outflow of 73.47 billion yuan in main funds [2][3] - The defense and military industry had the highest net inflow of main funds, totaling 2.29 billion yuan, while the banking sector also saw a significant inflow of 9.27 billion yuan [1] Industry Performance - The banking and coal industries were the top gainers, while the power equipment and communication sectors faced the largest declines [1] - In the power equipment sector, out of 364 stocks, 84 rose, 1 hit the daily limit, and 267 fell [2] - Notable stocks with significant net inflows in the power equipment sector included JunDa Co. with 235 million yuan, HeWang Electric with 159 million yuan, and Goldwind Technology with 115 million yuan [2] Fund Flow Analysis - The electronic industry experienced the largest net outflow of main funds, totaling 110.42 billion yuan, followed by the power equipment sector [1] - The top three stocks with the highest net outflows in the power equipment sector were Ningde Times with 1.347 billion yuan, Sunshine Power with 855.6 million yuan, and Tianji Co. with 308 million yuan [2][3] - The power equipment sector had 109 stocks with net inflows, while 20 stocks saw outflows exceeding 100 million yuan [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global lead market will shift from a tight - balance to an inventory accumulation cycle. The domestic market will show an independent cost - defense trend due to the bottleneck of recycled lead raw materials, presenting a pattern of weak overseas and strong domestic markets. The expected trading range for the main contract of SHFE lead is around 16,200 - 18,200 yuan/ton, and for LME lead, it is about 1,950 - 2,200 US dollars/ton [2]. - On the supply side, primary lead will maintain high production driven by high by - product profits, contributing the main increment. Recycled lead production growth will stagnate due to a 10% - 15% loss in the effective supply of waste batteries caused by fiscal and tax compliance and reverse invoicing policies. The implicit tightening of raw materials will establish the cost line of recycled lead as a solid foundation for industry pricing [2]. - On the demand side, it enters an era dominated by existing stocks, with an expected growth rate of 1.5%. The relaxation of the weight limit for two - wheeled vehicles in the new national standard to 63 kg will boost the share of lead - acid batteries, effectively offsetting the substitution of lithium batteries. The global surplus of 102,000 tons will mainly accumulate overseas, while the domestic surplus will be only about 30,000 tons, meaning that domestic visible inventory will remain at a low level and the export window will be difficult to open [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 2: Market Review - In the first three quarters of 2025, the lead price experienced a logical switch from cost - based pricing to macro - disturbances and then to supply - side contraction due to policies. The price center gradually increased in a wide - range fluctuation. In the fourth quarter, it showed a reverse - V shape, with the game between macro and industry intensifying again at the end of the year [3][6]. 3.2 Chapter 3: Supply Side 3.2.1 Mine End: Transition to Tight - Balance - In 2026, the global lead concentrate supply will enter a substantial recovery cycle, with the total output growth rate expected to reach an inflection point. The growth rate is expected to rise significantly to over 2.2% from the low - growth range of 0.7% - 1.3% in 2025, and the global total output of lead concentrate is expected to exceed 4.67 million tons. The supply - demand pattern will transition from a structural shortage to a tight - balance [9]. - The concentrated commissioning of overseas new and expanded projects is the primary driving force for supply growth in 2026, with an expected new increment of about 212,000 tons. China's import volume of lead concentrate is expected to increase slightly, and the frequency of import window openings may be better than in 2025 [12]. - Although the domestic mine end has capacity expansion plans, the actual output elasticity is limited due to compliance constraints. The new domestic lead concentrate capacity in 2026 is about 82,000 metal tons, but the self - sufficiency rate of the domestic raw material market is difficult to reverse fundamentally [14]. - The profit distribution pattern between mining and smelting is difficult to change fundamentally, and low processing fees (TC) will become the norm, providing cost support for lead prices [16]. 3.2.2 Lead Ingot: Moderate Recovery and Structural Differentiation of Supply - Globally, the supply system of refined lead in 2026 is entering a slow - recovery channel. The growth of total output is mainly driven by the recovery outside China. The global refined lead output is expected to increase by 0.8% - 1.2% year - on - year, approaching 13.5 million tons [18]. - In the Chinese market, the growth momentum of supply is slowing down. The domestic refined lead output in 2026 is expected to be about 7.8 million tons (with a floating range of 40,000 tons), and the year - on - year growth rate will narrow to 1.7% - 2.0% [18]. - In the smelting structure, primary lead shows strong production resilience and will be the core contributor to supply increment in 2026, with an expected output growth rate of 2.5% - 3.0%. Recycled lead is facing cost and policy challenges and is the biggest risk point for supply reduction. Its output growth is expected to be only 0.6% - 1.0%, or even show local contraction [20][22]. - In 2026, the smelting end will show a clear structural differentiation of strong primary lead and weak recycled lead, and the price center of lead will be firmly supported by the marginal cost of recycled lead [24]. 3.3 Chapter 4: Demand Side 3.3.1 Overall Consumption: Rigid Support and Marginal Differentiation under Stock Dominance - In 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of China's refined lead consumption is expected to narrow to about 1.5%, and the global demand growth rate will drop to 0.9%. The domestic lead consumption has rigid support, and the overall demand will maintain a narrow - range fluctuation pattern with a rigid bottom and limited upward elasticity [26]. 3.3.2 Lead - Acid Batteries: Differentiated Start - Up and Structural Reconstruction of Exports - In 2025, the lead - acid battery production showed a significant feature of differentiated start - up rates among different types and seasonal recovery. The overall industry's comprehensive start - up rate decreased compared with 2024, with traction batteries being the core support in the second half of the year, while starting and stationary batteries were weak [27]. - In 2025, the external demand for lead - acid batteries declined, and the export volume recorded a negative growth for the first time in recent years. The export price advantage was small, and the export structure changed significantly. The export volume to the United States and some Middle Eastern countries decreased sharply, while the export to Vietnam increased significantly [29]. - In 2025, the inventory in the industrial chain was mismatched, and the inventory pressure was transferred from the production end to the channel end. The battery factory's inventory decreased, while the dealer's inventory reached a historical high, which may overdraw the restocking potential in the first quarter of 2026 [31]. 3.3.3 Electric Bicycles: Policy Dividend Switch and Technological Return of "Lithium Retreat and Lead Advance" - In 2025, the electric bicycle market showed a "policy - driven" recovery, and the "trade - in" policy boosted the demand for lead - acid power batteries [33]. - In 2026, the core driving force of the industry will shift from fiscal subsidies to industrial standards. The revision of the new national standard for electric bicycles will release long - term institutional dividends, and the market share of lead - acid batteries is expected to stabilize and rebound [34][35]. - The lead consumption in the electric bicycle sector in 2026 is expected to grow moderately, with an estimated growth rate of lead consumption in the range of 1.5% - 2.0% [35]. 3.4 Chapter 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Inventory 3.4.1 Global Supply - Demand Balance - In 2026, the global lead market will show a surplus. The growth of mine production is mainly from overseas project expansion, and the growth of refined lead production shows a pattern of strong primary lead and weak recycled lead. The growth of refined lead consumption is mainly supported by Europe, the United States, and Vietnam [39]. 3.4.2 Domestic Supply - Demand Balance - In 2026, the domestic lead market will have a marginal surplus of about 30,000 tons. The consumption growth rate is expected to be 1.5%, and the supply - demand balance will be affected by the production of primary and recycled lead and net imports [39]. 3.4.3 Inventory: Differentiation between Domestic and Overseas - In 2025, the global lead visible inventory showed a significant regional mismatch, with LME inventory accumulating to a historical high and domestic social inventory remaining at a low level. In 2026, the global supply - demand surplus is expected to expand, and the high overseas inventory will suppress the LME lead price. The domestic visible inventory is difficult to accumulate substantially, and the low domestic inventory will support the SHFE lead price [40].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3877.49 points, above the annual line, with a change of 0.19% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares today is 1,059.316 billion yuan [1] - A total of 171 A-shares have surpassed the annual line, with notable stocks showing significant deviation rates [1] Group 2 - The stocks with the highest deviation rates include Yimin Group at 9.76%, Hewei Electric at 6.91%, and Meilian New Materials at 6.47% [1] - Other stocks that have just crossed the annual line include Guokang Biochemical, COSCO Shipping Development, and Chengfa Environment, with smaller deviation rates [1] - The top three stocks by today's increase percentage are Yimin Group at 10.11%, Meilian New Materials at 10.28%, and Laiyifen at 10.01% [1] Group 3 - The trading turnover rates for the top stocks include Hewei Electric at 10.90% and Yimin Group at 8.94% [1] - The annual line prices for the highlighted stocks are Yimin Group at 4.46 yuan, Hewei Electric at 30.86 yuan, and Meilian New Materials at 9.97 yuan [1] - The latest prices for these stocks are Yimin Group at 4.90 yuan, Hewei Electric at 32.99 yuan, and Meilian New Materials at 10.62 yuan [1]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3876.98 points, above the annual line, with a change of 0.17% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares today is 786.186 billion yuan [1] - A total of 193 A-shares have surpassed the annual line, with notable stocks showing significant deviation rates including Yimin Group at 9.76%, Meilian New Materials at 7.37%, and Hewang Electric at 6.07% [1] Group 2 - The stocks with the highest deviation rates from the annual line include: - Yimin Group: 10.11% increase, turnover rate of 7.10%, annual line at 4.46 yuan, latest price at 4.90 yuan, deviation rate of 9.76% [1] - Meilian New Materials: 11.21% increase, turnover rate of 6.15%, annual line at 9.97 yuan, latest price at 10.71 yuan, deviation rate of 7.37% [1] - Hewang Electric: 6.79% increase, turnover rate of 7.73%, annual line at 30.86 yuan, latest price at 32.73 yuan, deviation rate of 6.07% [1] - Other stocks with smaller deviation rates that have just crossed the annual line include Chengfa Environment, Deguan New Materials, and Guangzheng Ophthalmology [1]

Group 1 - Wind power equipment sector increased by 0.77% on December 17, with He望电气 leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3870.28, up 1.19%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13224.51, up 2.4% [1] - He望电气's closing price was 30.65, reflecting a rise of 5.36% with a trading volume of 238,100 shares and a transaction value of 708 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The wind power equipment sector saw a net outflow of 376 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 444 million yuan [2] - The trading data for various companies showed that He望电气 had a net inflow of 80.12 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 78.23 million yuan [3] - Other companies like 运达股份 and 德力佳 also experienced varying degrees of net inflows and outflows from different investor types [3]

Core Viewpoint - Hewei Electric (603063) has indicated that its wind power, photovoltaic, and energy storage businesses are all included in the new energy control business, and the revenue from this segment is not separately disclosed [1] Group 1 - The company has confirmed that its new energy control business encompasses multiple sectors, including wind power, solar energy, and energy storage [1] - Revenue details for the new energy control business are not provided in a segmented manner, indicating a consolidated reporting approach [1]

证券日报网讯12月16日，禾望电气（603063）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司2025年回购方案 的实施期限为2025年4月12日至2026年4月11日。 ...

禾望电气（603063.SH）12月16日在投资者互动平台表示，投资者您好，公司的储能变流器支持构网型 功能和毫秒级一次调频功能，储能产品数据包含在新能源电控业务中，未进行单独拆分，感谢您的关 注！ （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：公司的储能变流器是否支持构网型模式和毫秒级一次 调频功能？公司储能变流器大约占整体营业收入的比重？前三季度储能变流器的收入增速和毛利率情 况？ ...