Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report [1] - Date: November 07, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - After the impact of the new season's listing in October, the spot price showed resilience and fluctuated slightly stronger in November. Although the spot selling pressure remained at a high level, the price showed signs of bottom consolidation under the influence of state reserve purchases, deep - processing and feed enterprises' restocking at low prices, and the rise of surrounding agricultural product prices. Downstream enterprises are advised to manage their long - term procurement to avoid the risk of increased procurement costs later [2]. - On the futures side, the corn futures price broke through upwards, recovering the decline in October. The main 01 contract closed at 2154 yuan, with increased trading volume and significantly increased open interest. The registered warrants remained unchanged at 66,351 lots. The starch price also rose, with the main 01 contract closing at 2469 yuan, increased trading volume, and slightly increased open interest. The strong sales in the starch market led to continuous inventory reduction, and the futures price followed the corn to strengthen, with the price spread between starch and corn likely to widen further [2]. - Although the overall corn price has stopped falling and stabilized, it is still weaker than other agricultural products. Currently, the price shows resilience, and short - term selling pressure is the core factor determining the price [2]. - On Thursday, CBOT corn futures closed sharply lower. The harvest and listing of the new season's corn is the core factor suppressing the futures price. In addition, the good planting conditions for South American corn and the sharp decline of surrounding soybeans and wheat also brought pressure [2]. Summary by Section Core Contradictions - Spot price: After the October shock, it showed resilience and narrow - range upward fluctuations in November. Selling pressure is high, but state reserve purchases, enterprise restocking, and rising surrounding agricultural product prices support the price to show bottom - consolidation signs [2]. - Futures price: Corn futures broke through upwards, recovering the October decline. Starch futures followed the upward trend, and the price spread may widen [2]. - Overall situation: Corn price is stable but weaker than other agricultural products. Short - term selling pressure is the key price - determining factor [2]. - International market: CBOT corn futures closed sharply lower due to new - season harvest, good South American planting conditions, and the decline of surrounding products [2]. Bullish Factors - The selling pressure is more dispersed, reducing the urgency of grain sales and alleviating price pressure [3]. - State reserve purchases in the Northeast production area are significantly supporting prices, limiting price declines [3]. Bearish Factors - The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, affecting the long - term feed demand for corn. However, the high inventory in the fourth quarter and the current second - fattening entry support the feed demand at a good level [4]. - In the first half of November, the late - harvested corn will still be harvested and listed, and the selling pressure may be released in a concentrated manner, limiting the continuous upward momentum of prices [4]. - The sharp decline of overnight foreign agricultural products may affect the upward trend of corn [4]. Price Forecast - Corn price range (monthly): 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 9.43% and a volatility percentile of 56.1% [5]. - Starch price range (monthly): 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a current volatility of 10.00% and a volatility percentile of 37.89% [5]. Price and Basis Data - Spot price: For corn, Jinzhou Port is 2155 yuan (-10 yuan), Shekou Port is 2250 yuan (unchanged), and Harbin is 2010 yuan (unchanged). For corn starch, Shandong is 2750 yuan (unchanged), Jilin is 2550 yuan (unchanged), and Heilongjiang is 2450 yuan (unchanged) [5]. - Basis: Jinzhou Port main - continuous basis for corn is 1 yuan (-30 yuan), and Shandong main - continuous basis for corn starch is 281 yuan (-18 yuan) [5]. - Futures price: Corn futures prices generally increased on November 6, 2025, with the 11 - contract rising 28 yuan (1.32%), the 01 - contract rising 20 yuan (0.94%), etc. Corn starch futures prices also increased, with the 11 - contract unchanged, the 01 - contract rising 18 yuan (0.73%), etc. The wheat average price decreased by 3 yuan (-0.12%) [6]. International Market Data - CBOT corn main - continuous contract price is 428.75 cents per bushel, down 6.25 cents (-1.44%). COBT soybean main - continuous contract price is 1108 cents per bushel, down 26.5 cents (-2.34%). CBOT wheat main - continuous contract price is 536 cents per bushel, down 18 cents (-3.25%) [26]. - The duty - paid price in the US Gulf is 2164.54 yuan, up 10.57 yuan (0.49%), with an import profit of 85.46 yuan. The duty - paid price in the US West is 2048.48 yuan, up 10.63 yuan (0.52%), with an import profit of 201.52 yuan [26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals, in the short - term, the price has entered an adjustment phase. There is expected to be no strong driving force in November. Investors should look for mid - term opportunities to buy on dips, and those with existing long positions should hold their bottom positions cautiously. London gold has resistance at 4050 - 4100, support at 3900, and strong support in the 3800 - 3850 area; silver has resistance at 49.5 - 50, support at 47.5, and strong support at 45.5 [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The US dollar index, 10 - year US Treasury yields, US stocks, Bitcoin, and crude oil all declined. The number of US Challenger corporate layoffs in October reached a 20 - year high. Concerns about AI investment returns and hawkish remarks from Fed officials increased market panic about a potential economic recession. The US government shutdown also added to market unease. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3984.8 per ounce, down 0.2%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $47.845 per ounce, down 0.37%. SHFE gold 2512 contract closed at 917.8 yuan per gram, up 0.79%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11427 yuan per kilogram, up 1.99%. The US announced a new list of critical minerals, including copper, silver, uranium, and potash [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly increased. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 29.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 70.6%. For January 29, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 17.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 54.2%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 28.2%. For March 19, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 10.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 39.1%, the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 38.9%, and the probability of a 75 - basis - point cut is 11.6%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 1.72 tons to 1040.35 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 36.68 tons to 15114.03 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 16.2 tons to 640 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 74.9 tons to 830.33 tons as of the week ending October 31 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday evening and whether the US government shutdown will delay the data release. Regarding events, at 16:00 on Friday, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak at the ECB money market conference [4]. 4. Price, Inventory, and Market Data 4.1 Precious Metals Futures and Spot Prices | Product | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Main Continuous | Yuan/gram | 917.8 | 5.54 | 0.61% | | SGX Gold TD | Yuan/gram | 917.51 | 7.98 | 0.88% | | CME Gold Main | US dollars/ounce | 3984.8 | - 5.6 | - 0.14% | | SHFE Silver Main Continuous | Yuan/kilogram | 11427 | 151 | 1.34% | | SGX Silver TD | Yuan/kilogram | 11421 | 181 | 1.61% | | CME Silver Main | US dollars/ounce | 47.845 | - 0.015 | - 0.03% | | SHFE - TD Gold | Yuan/gram | 0.29 | - 2.44 | - 89.38% | | SHFE - TD Silver | Yuan/kilogram | 6 | - 30 | - 1000% | | CME Gold - Silver Ratio | / | 83.2856 | - 0.0909 | - 0.11% | [7] 4.2 Inventory and Position Data | Product | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Inventory | Kilogram | 87816 | 0 | 0% | | CME Gold Inventory | Ton | 1177.1807 | - 1.0722 | - 0.09% | | SHFE Gold Position | Lot | 137883 | - 3545 | - 2.51% | | SPDR Gold Position | Ton | 1040.35 | 1.72 | 0.17% | | SHFE Silver Inventory | Ton | 639.94 | - 16.23 | - 2.47% | | CME Silver Inventory | Ton | 14975.342 | 0.3139 | 0% | | SGX Silver Inventory | Ton | 830.31 | - 74.925 | - 8.28% | | SHFE Silver Position | Lot | 245863 | 1589 | 0.65% | | SLV Silver Position | Ton | 15114.027615 | - 36.682 | - 0.24% | [15][17] 4.3 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Market Overview | Product | Unit | Latest Value | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Dollar Index | 1973.3 = 199 | 99.7056 | - 0.4536 | - 0.45% | | US Dollar to Chinese Yuan | / | 7.1226 | - 0.0078 | - 0.11% | | Dow Jones Industrial Average | Point | 46912.3 | - 398.7 | - 0.84% | | WTI Crude Oil Spot | US dollars/barrel | 59.43 | - 0.17 | - 0.29% | | LmeS Copper 03 | US dollars/ton | 10687 | - 46 | - 0.43% | | 10 - Year US Treasury Yield | % | 4.11 | - 0.06 | - 1.44% | | 10 - Year US Real Interest Rate | % | 1.83 | - 0.04 | - 2.14% | | 10 - 2 Year US Treasury Yield Spread | % | 0.54 | 0 | 0% | [22]

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Market Overview - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft is officially released, guiding future focus areas. Sino-US economic and trade teams reach a phased consensus in Kuala Lumpur, reducing tariff policy disturbances and boosting market risk appetite [2]. - The manufacturing PMI declines marginally, indicating weakening supply and demand, and the economy still needs policy support. Overseas, after the US interest rate cut, the focus shifts to employment and inflation during the US government shutdown [2]. - The US "small non-farm" ADP added 42,000 jobs in October, exceeding expectations, with stagnant wage growth and marginal stabilization in employment [2]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate - The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1219 on November 6, up 27 points from the previous trading day [3]. - It is expected that the US dollar against the RMB spot exchange rate will operate in the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, with a potentially stronger overall trend. The key technical level of 7.10 is crucial for short - term exchange rate trends [4]. Group 3: Stock Index - The stock index closed up collectively in the previous trading day, with the CSI 300 index rising 1.43%. The trading volume in the two markets rebounded by 18.2906 billion yuan [4]. - Short - term stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate due to intensified external disturbances and increased sensitivity to external risks in the domestic market [5]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - On Thursday, medium - and long - term treasury bond futures declined, while short - term bonds stabilized. The capital market was loose, with DR001 around 1.32% [5]. - Short - term treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate, and if the bond market corrects due to the rumored public fund fee new regulations, it may present a buying opportunity [6]. Group 5: Container Shipping (Europe Line) - On November 6, the container shipping index (Europe line) futures market closed down across the board, with the main contract EC2512 performing weakly. The shipping futures led the decline, with the container shipping index (Europe line) falling 3.91% [8]. - Short - term container shipping futures for the Europe line are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern, driven by the game between the expectation of Red Sea route resumption and spot demand [10]. Group 6: Precious Metals - On Thursday, precious metals continued to fluctuate and consolidate. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3984.8 per ounce, down 0.2%; SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 917.8 yuan per gram, up 0.79% [12]. - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand growth will boost precious metal prices, but in the short - term, it is in an adjustment phase. In November, it is difficult to have strong drivers [15]. Group 7: Copper - Overnight, Comex copper closed at $4.97 per pound, up 0.19%; LME copper closed at $10687 per ton, down 0.1%; SHFE copper main contract closed at 85,690 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [16]. - When the copper price falls to around 85,000 yuan per ton, downstream enterprises' replenishment enthusiasm increases significantly, but whether orders will continue to increase needs further observation [17]. Group 8: Aluminum Industry Chain - The previous trading day, the main contract of SHFE aluminum closed at 21,665 yuan per ton, up 1.29% month - on - month; LME aluminum closed at $2843 per ton, down 0.09% month - on - month [18]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina prices are expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [20][21]. Group 9: Zinc - The previous trading day, the main contract of SHFE zinc closed at 22,675 yuan per ton. The price of zinc is expected to be strongly volatile, with sufficient bottom support in November [21]. Group 10: Tin - The main contract of SHFE tin closed at 283,400 yuan per ton in the previous trading day. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly, with a stable resistance level at 290,000 yuan [21]. Group 11: Lead - The main contract of SHFE lead closed at 17,430 yuan per ton in the previous trading day. Short - term lead prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level due to supply shortages [23]. Group 12: Black Metals - The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the anti - dumping investigation of hot - rolled steel sheets may put pressure on far - month contracts. Hot - rolled coil inventory is accumulating, and the de - stocking pressure is high [25]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure due to abundant supply and weak demand. There are opportunities to short at high prices after valuation repair [27][28]. - Coking coal and coke are in short supply in the spot market, and long - short spreads are strengthening. In the short term, prices may face adjustment, and in the long term, they are suitable for long positions in the black metal sector [29][30]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate due to high inventory and weak demand, with support from the cost side [30][31]. Group 13: Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with geopolitical factors as potential upward risks, and will be suppressed by fundamentals in the long term [33][34]. - LPG prices are expected to fluctuate, with unclear short - term drivers and a lack of upward momentum [35][36]. - PX - PTA prices are expected to be relatively strongly volatile. PX is expected to maintain a relatively strong position, and PTA may have support below a processing fee of 230 on the disk [37][39]. - MEG - bottle chip prices are expected to rebound slightly following the cost of coal in the short term, with an expected trading range of 3750 - 4150 [40][42]. - PP prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [43][45]. - PE prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to large supply pressure and weak demand support [46][48]. - Pure benzene and styrene prices are likely to be weak, and it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities after a rebound [49][50]. - Fuel oil prices' high - sulfur cracking is expected to be weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to taking profits. Low - sulfur fuel oil prices' fundamentals are improving [51][53]. - Asphalt prices are expected to continue to decline, and it is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm [54][55]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be limited in upward movement due to high - supply expectations and cost support. Glass prices may face downward pressure in the 01 contract but have cost support and policy expectations in the long term. Caustic soda prices may face market pressure as production recovers [56][59]. Group 14: Pulp and Related Products - Pulp and offset paper prices are expected to be relatively volatile in the short term. Pulp prices are supported by raw material price increases, and offset paper prices are supported by cost factors [60][61]. Group 15: Logs - Log prices are expected to be weakly volatile. The current main strategy is to short at high prices, and pay attention to the opportunity of shorting the 01 - 03 spread in the medium - to long - term [62][63]. Group 16: Propylene - Propylene prices are expected to remain weak due to a loose supply situation and weak terminal demand [64][65]. Group 17: Agricultural Products - Hog prices may be supported by improving demand during the peak season. Long - term strategic bullishness is possible, but short - to medium - term focus is on fundamentals [66]. - Oilseed prices' upward trend is delayed. Imported soybeans' buying sentiment is reduced, and domestic soybean meal has a high inventory. Rapeseed meal is in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter [67][68]. - Edible oil prices are waiting for opportunities after negative factors are exhausted. Palm oil has supply pressure, soybean oil has inventory pressure but cost support, and rapeseed oil supply concerns remain [69]. - Soybean No. 1 prices are recommended for short - term observation. The market has entered a bullish trend, and short positions should be avoided [71]. - Corn and starch prices show signs of upward breakthrough, but attention should be paid to the impact of the decline in the external market [72][73].

Macro News - The U.S. ADP employment numbers for October showed an increase of 42,000, the largest growth since July 2025, exceeding expectations of 28,000 [1] - The total employment numbers for September were revised to a decrease of 29,000 from a previous estimate of a decrease of 32,000 [1] - The ISM services PMI for October rebounded above expectations, reaching an eight-month high, while the prices paid index hit a three-year high [1] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in December is 37.5%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 62.5% [1] Market Performance - On Wednesday, precious metal prices saw a slight rebound but remained in a narrow trading range, forming a reversal pattern from Tuesday [2] - COMEX gold for December delivery closed at $3,990.4 per ounce, up 0.75%, while silver closed at $47.86 per ounce, up 1.2% [2] - SHFE gold for December delivery closed at 912.26 yuan per gram, down 0.77%, and silver at 11,276 yuan per kilogram, down 0.73% [2] Investment Outlook - In the medium to long term, central bank gold purchases and increased investment demand due to monetary easing prospects and phase-specific hedging trades are expected to support higher precious metal prices [2] - However, in the short term, a period of adjustment is anticipated, with November likely lacking strong driving forces [2] - Key resistance levels for London gold are between 4,050-4,100, with support at 3,900 and strong support in the 3,800-3,850 range; for silver, resistance is at 49.5-50, with support at 47.5 and strong support at 45.5 [2]

南华原油风险管理日报 2025年11月6日 杨歆悦（投资咨询证号：Z0022518） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心观点】 油价继续承压，WTI原油失守60美元关口，布伦特、中国SC原油期货同步收跌。核心压力源于供应过剩，美 国原油产量创纪录新高，商业原油库存大幅增加，虽对俄制裁、欧佩克 + 暂停增产缓解部分预期，但未改 变供需格局。短期油价区间拉锯，欧美原油月差走弱显缺乏上行驱动，超预期累库风险仍存。长期全球能 源进入 "能源累加" 时代，化石燃料与可再生能源并行发展，石油需求将维持高位。短期建议维持空头 思路，把握逢高做空机会，同时防范委内瑞拉地缘冲突等突发风险，年内油价重心承压下行是大概率事 件。 【交易策略】 1.单边：区间操作，Brent上方65阻力较大，下方支撑60。 2.套利：可尝试空月差。 3.期权：观望。 美国库欣原油周度库存季节性 source： 同花顺,南华研究 万桶 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 01/01 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 2000 4000 6000 美国商业原油周度库存（不含战略储备 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the precious metals price, in the short term, they are in an adjustment phase. There is expected to be no strong driving force in November. It is advisable to look for mid - term opportunities to buy on dips, and those holding long positions should continue to hold them cautiously. The resistance for London gold is 4050 - 4100, support is 3900, and strong support is in the 3800 - 3850 area. For silver, the resistance is 49.5 - 50, support is 47.5, and strong support is 45.5 [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, precious metals prices rebounded slightly but remained in a narrow - range oscillation, reversing Tuesday's pattern. The US dollar index oscillated, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose, the US stock market rebounded, the European stock market rose, Bitcoin rebounded, crude oil prices fell, and the Southern China Non - ferrous Metals Index oscillated at a low level. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3990.4 per ounce, up 0.75%; the US silver 2512 contract closed at $47.86 per ounce, up 1.2%. The SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 912.26 yuan per gram, down 0.77%; the SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11276 yuan per kilogram, down 0.73%. The US October ADP employment increased by 42,000, the largest increase since July 2025 and higher than the expected 28,000. The September total employment was revised to a decrease of 29,000 from a decrease of 32,000. After the data, precious metals briefly declined and then returned to an upward trend. The US October ISM services PMI rebounded unexpectedly, reaching an eight - month high, and the price - paid index hit a three - year high [2] 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut in December remains uncertain. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged on December 11 is 37.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 62.5%. For January 29, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 25.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 54.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 19.4%. For March 19, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 17.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 45.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 31.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 6.4%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 1038.63 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 16.93 tons to 15150.71 tons. The SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9.4 tons to 656.2 tons, and the SGX silver inventory decreased by 74.9 tons to 830.33 tons as of the week ending October 31 [3] 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday evening and whether the US government shutdown will delay the data release. Regarding events, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report at 20:00 on Thursday. FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will give a speech at 00:00 on Friday; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Harker will speak at the New York Economic Club at 01:00; 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will speak at 05:30; 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Mousalem will have a fireside chat on monetary policy at 06:30; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak at the European Central Bank Money Market Conference at 16:00 [4] 3.4 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Price Table - Provides the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold and silver main - continuous contracts, SGX gold and silver TD, CME gold and silver main contracts, SHFE - TD gold and silver spreads, and the CME gold - silver ratio [6] 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - Shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories, SHFE gold and silver positions, SPDR gold holdings, and SLV silver holdings [13] 3.6 Stock - Bond - Commodity Overview - Presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10Y US Treasury yield, and 10Y US real interest rate [18]

Core Viewpoint - The futures industry is undergoing regulatory changes aimed at enhancing quality and compliance, shifting from quantity-driven growth to a focus on high-quality development and diversified services [2][4][5]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes and Industry Direction - The new regulations emphasize compliance and risk management, encouraging futures companies to create a positive industry atmosphere and enhance their service capabilities to support the real economy [2][4]. - The industry is transitioning from a marketing-oriented approach to a service-oriented model, with companies encouraged to establish compliance frameworks and improve their operational management [3][4]. Group 2: Company Strategies and Innovations - Companies like Nanhua Futures are focusing on a diversified business model that includes futures brokerage, risk management, wealth management, and overseas financial services to provide comprehensive risk management solutions [2]. - Newhu Futures is restructuring its business into four layers: intermediary, tool, trading service, and trading investment, aiming to enhance service quality and client engagement [3]. - Green Dahu Futures plans to implement a multi-faceted strategy that includes business diversification, customer diversification, and a focus on regional and functional capabilities to meet national strategic goals [4]. - Zhejiang Merchants Futures is leveraging digital innovation to improve service quality, developing platforms to address the pain points of small and medium-sized enterprises in pricing, inventory, and financing [5][6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Although in the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the precious metal price, in the short term, the market has entered an adjustment phase. There is expected to be no strong driving force in November. Attention should be paid to mid - term opportunities to buy on dips, and existing long - position bottom positions should be held cautiously. London gold has resistance at 4050 - 4100, support at 3900, and strong support in the 3800 - 3850 area; silver has resistance at 49.5 - 50, support at 47.5, and strong support at 45.5 [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - On Tuesday, precious metal prices declined. The US dollar index rose, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell, the US stock market, Bitcoin, crude oil, and the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index all dropped. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3941.3 per ounce, down 1.81%; the US silver 2512 contract closed at $46.895 per ounce, down 2.4%. The SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 908.92 yuan per gram, down 1.14%; the SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11238 yuan per kilogram, down 1.33% [2] 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations rebounded slightly. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 29.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 70.1%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased by 3.15 tons to 1038.63 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 22.2 tons to 15167.6 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 6.7 tons to 665.6 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 145.4 tons to 905.2 tons as of the week ending October 24 [3] 3.3 This Week's Focus - Data: Focus on the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday night. There will also be ISM manufacturing and services PMI, ADP small non - farm data during the week. Also, pay attention to whether the US government shutdown will delay data releases. Events: The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report on Thursday at 08:00. On Friday, multiple FOMC members will give speeches at different times [4] 3.4 Price and Spread Data - The report provides the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various gold and silver contracts such as SHFE gold and silver futures, SGX gold and silver TD, CME gold and silver futures, as well as the COMEX gold - silver ratio [5] 3.5 Inventory and Position Data - It shows the latest inventory and position data of SHFE and CME gold and silver, including SHFE gold inventory (87816 kg), CME gold inventory (1178.2529 tons), SHFE gold position (144602 lots), etc. [13][14] 3.6 Other Asset Data - Presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of other assets such as the US dollar index, US stocks, crude oil, LME copper, and US Treasury yields [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to show an "oscillating and strengthening" trend within the range of 74,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton in the next month. If the lithium ore gap cannot be replenished, the price may break through 85,000 yuan/ton [5]. - On the lithium ore side, the expected increase in the number of lithium concentrates arriving at ports this month can ease the tight situation. The release of salt - lake production capacity will continuously supplement the supply of the lithium salt market, and the "resumption speed of Jianxiaowo" is a key variable. If its resumption progress exceeds market expectations, it will expand the lithium salt supply scale and potentially suppress prices. The demand side is currently strong, with the prices of core battery materials rising, and the downstream production scheduling in November remains highly prosperous, which will maintain strong demand for lithium salts and intensify the supply - demand mismatch of lithium ore. National industrial policies are expected to support the demand for lithium salts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The strong pressure level of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 85,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 29.4% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 45.1% [2]. - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 78,560 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0, a daily环比 of 0.00%, a weekly change of - 4,340 yuan/ton, and a weekly环比 of - 5.24%. Other contract data such as trading volume, open interest, and spreads between different contracts are also provided [8]. - **Options and Other Data**: Information on estimated volume totals, option contract data for different months (including opening, high, low, last, change, settle, estimated volume, and prior - day open interest) are presented [22][23]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The daily average prices of different types of lithium ores (lithium mica, lithium spodumene, etc.) with different Li₂O contents are given, along with their daily and weekly changes. The exchange rate of the US dollar to the RMB is also provided [27]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Prices**: The daily prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and their daily and weekly changes are presented. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea) is also included [30]. - **Price Spreads**: Spreads such as the difference between electric - carbon and industrial - carbon, electric - carbon and electric - hydrogen, and the difference between the CIF price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide in Japan and South Korea and the domestic price are provided, along with their daily and weekly changes [37]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The daily prices of downstream products such as phosphoric (manganese) iron lithium, ternary materials, and electrolytes, and their changes are presented [38][39]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Data**: The main - continuous basis of lithium carbonate and the basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands are provided [41][43]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The seasonal data and the quantity data of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts (including the total and for different warehouses) are presented, along with their daily changes [44][46]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The production profit of lithium carbonate from外购 lithium ore (lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate), import profit, and theoretical delivery profit are presented, with their historical trends shown [47][48][49]. 3.5 Lithium - Battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with battery material production plans, different hedging strategies are recommended according to whether the product price is correlated with the raw material price. The hedging tools include futures and on - and off - exchange options, with different hedging ratios and recommended entry intervals [2]. - **Sales Management**: Enterprises with lithium carbonate production plans can use futures and options to hedge against the risk of price decline during sales. Different hedging ratios are recommended based on different situations [2]. - **Inventory Management**: Enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventories can use futures and options to hedge against the risk of inventory depreciation, with recommended hedging ratios and price levels [2].

戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z0021819） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 生猪价格区间预测 | 主力合约价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 11000-13500 | 24.24% | 75.74% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 生猪企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 推荐比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | | 向 | | | 库存管 理 | 产品库存偏高，担心库存有减值风险 | 为防止存栏减值，可以根据存栏情况，做空生猪期货来锁定成品利润 担心库存减值，但期货盘面没有合适价位入场，卖出看涨期权 | LH2601 LH2601-C-1300 | 卖出 卖出 | 10% 10% | | | | | 0 | | | | | | 担心库存减值，又不想放弃后市可能出现猪价大涨的机会，买入虚值看跌期权 | LH2601-P-1100 0 | 买入 | | | 采购管 理 ...