Market Overview - The futures concept sector declined by 0.37% on November 4, with Meihu Co., Ltd. leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3960.19, down 0.41%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13175.22, down 1.71% [1] Stock Performance - Xiamen Guomao (600755) saw a significant increase of 4.51%, closing at 6.72 with a trading volume of 1.32 million shares and a turnover of 885 million yuan [1] - Meihu Co., Ltd. (6163309) experienced a decline of 3.77%, closing at 34.93 with a trading volume of 135,600 shares and a turnover of 477 million yuan [2] - Other notable performers included Modern Investment (000900) with a 0.94% increase and Zhongke Jincai (002657) with a 2.26% decline [2] Capital Flow - The futures concept sector experienced a net outflow of 536 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 313 million yuan [2] - The capital flow data indicates that major funds were predominantly withdrawing, contrasting with the inflow from retail investors [3] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Quzhou Development (600208) had a net inflow of 65.63 million yuan from main funds, while it faced a net outflow of 63.93 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Zhongjin Lingnan (000060) reported a net inflow of 18.44 million yuan from main funds, but also saw outflows from both retail and speculative funds [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The stock index opened lower and rebounded in the late session, recouping some losses, with the trading volume in the two markets falling below 2 trillion yuan. The decline in the Asia - Pacific market and the increasing profit - taking intention of funds led to a correction in some sectors. The market showed strong wait - and - see sentiment, with the basis of stock index futures falling and market sentiment cooling. However, the late - session rebound indicated support at lower levels. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate. The market has significant differences in the Fed's subsequent interest - rate cut path, and attention should be paid to the US ADP data. The strategy recommended is to hold positions and wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The stock index closed down collectively, with the large - cap index relatively resilient. The CSI 300 index closed down 0.75%. The trading volume in the two markets decreased by 1913.73 billion yuan. Among stock index futures, IM declined with increasing volume, while other varieties declined with decreasing volume [3]. Important Information - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months, with weak demand and employment and cooling inflation. The US Treasury Secretary threatened to impose additional tariffs on China if China continued to restrict rare - earth exports, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that dialogue and cooperation are the right ways [4]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -0.89 | -0.18 | -1.92 | -1.55 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.8199 | 5.0534 | 14.3967 | 23.3578 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | -2.4816 | -1.2191 | -0.511 | -2.4149 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.0097 | 9.6979 | 25.4358 | 36.2939 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | -0.1034 | -0.2629 | -0.0107 | 0.0556 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.41 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -1.71 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.45 | | Trading volume in the two markets (billion yuan) | 19157.58 | | Trading volume change (billion yuan) | -1913.73 | [7]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that the lithium carbonate futures price will show an "oscillating and strengthening" trend in the range of 74,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton in the next month. If the lithium ore gap cannot be filled in time, the price may break through 85,000 yuan/ton [5]. - On the lithium ore side, the expected increase in the quantity of imported lithium concentrates this month can ease the supply tightness. The release of salt lake production capacity will continuously supplement the supply of the lithium salt market, and the "resumption speed of Jianxiaowo" is a key variable. If its resumption progress exceeds market expectations, it will directly expand the lithium salt supply scale and potentially suppress prices. The current demand is strong, and the prices of core battery materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate are rising, indicating the demand toughness for lithium carbonate. The high - prosperity production schedule in November will maintain the strong demand for lithium salts, intensifying the supply - demand mismatch of lithium ore. The downstream demand of lithium battery material enterprises is expected to increase month - on - month by the end of the year, which will support the spot price of lithium carbonate [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Data - **Price and Volatility**: The 20 - day rolling volatility of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 30.0%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in 3 years is 45.1%. The strong pressure level of the LC2601 contract is 85,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Contract Information**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 78,560 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 3,720 yuan (- 4.52%) and a weekly decrease of 3,080 yuan (- 3.77%). The trading volume is 975,978 lots, with a daily increase of 389,310 lots (66.36%) and a weekly increase of 246,671 lots (33.82%). The open interest is 457,374 lots, with a daily decrease of 67,810 lots (- 12.91%) and a weekly decrease of 31,429 lots (- 6.43%) [8]. - **Spread Information**: LC2601 - LC2603 is 100 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 420 yuan (- 80.77%) and a weekly decrease of 640 yuan (- 86.49%); LC2601 - LC2605 is - 500 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 580 yuan (- 725.00%) and a weekly decrease of 740 yuan (- 308.33%); LC2603 - LC2605 is - 600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 160 yuan (36.36%) and a weekly increase of 100 yuan (20.00%) [8]. - **Warehouse Receipt Information**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 26,490 lots, with a daily decrease of 800 lots (- 2.93%) and a weekly decrease of 845 lots (- 3.09%) [8]. 2. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores have different degrees of decline. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 2,115 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 35 yuan (- 1.63%) and a weekly increase of 50 yuan (2.42%) [26]. - **Lithium Salt Prices**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 78,700 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 100 yuan (- 0.13%) and a weekly increase of 2,400 yuan (3.15%); the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 80,900 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 100 yuan (- 0.12%) and a weekly increase of 2,400 yuan (3.06%) [29]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes also have different changes. For example, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) is 36,025 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 25 yuan (- 0.07%) [38]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Information**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands vary. For example, the basis quote of Shengxin Lithium Energy (LI2CO3≥99.8%, LC2601) is - 100 yuan, and the four - material comprehensive basis quote (LC2601) is - 225 yuan [42]. - **Warehouse Receipt Information**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 26,490 lots, a decrease of 800 lots compared with yesterday. Different warehouses have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities, such as a decrease of 150 lots in Xiangyu Speed - Pass Shanghai and 440 lots in Suining Tiancheng [45]. 4. Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore, including the production profit from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%), as well as the import profit and theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate [46][47][49]. 5. Risk Management Strategies - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with plans to produce battery materials in the future, if they are worried about the increase in procurement costs due to rising lithium carbonate prices, they can buy corresponding futures contracts or sell put options to lock in procurement costs. The hedging ratio is 20%, and the recommended entry range is below 73,000 yuan for futures and LC2512 - P - 73000 for options [2]. - **Sales Management**: For enterprises with plans to produce lithium carbonate in the future, if they are worried about the decrease in sales profits due to falling prices, they can sell corresponding futures contracts or buy put options and sell call options to lock in sales profits. The hedging ratio for futures is 40%, and 20% for options [2]. - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventories, if they are worried about inventory depreciation due to falling prices, they can sell futures contracts or call options to lock in inventory value. The hedging ratio for futures is 60% (above 83,000 yuan), and 30% for call options (LC2601 - C - 83000) [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The key trading point of the current soybean meal futures lies in the export demand of US soybeans in the context of China-US negotiations. With an expected export volume of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in and limited incremental factors, the ending inventory will remain around 300 million bushels, and the price oscillation range will shift slightly upwards. However, with the smooth progress of soybean planting in Brazil, there will be limited upward driving forces. The upward space of the domestic soybean meal rebound is expected to be limited due to the high inventory pressure in the near - term. The purchase of US soybeans will lead to a downward driving force in the far - term, but the cost support will also limit the decline [4]. - The key trading point of the current rapeseed meal futures is that the domestic rapeseed meal is affected by the continuous China - Canada negotiations. In the short term, due to the approaching of the warrant cancellation month, the futures price shows a slightly stronger performance, but it is not advisable to chase the long position. Since the preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed was announced on August 12, domestic importers have been cautious about purchasing Canadian rapeseed. The import volume this year has decreased by 42% compared with the same period last year. The fourth quarter will maintain a state of weak supply and demand. After the Chinese government decided to resume group tours to Canada on November 3, the subsequent demand is expected to be limited, and the supply is expected to recover [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 9.8% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 6.9%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 18.7% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 40.2% [3]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Instrument | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to enterprise inventory | M2601 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance | M2601 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to enterprise situation | M2601 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - For soybean meal: The external market focuses on export demand, while the domestic market is constrained by high inventory in the near - term and the purchase of US soybeans in the far - term. Short - term attention should be paid to whether a procurement and tariff adjustment agreement is signed between China and the US this week [4]. - For rapeseed meal: Affected by China - Canada negotiations, the short - term performance is slightly stronger, but the subsequent demand is expected to be limited, and the supply is expected to recover. The new warrant registration situation after the centralized cancellation in November can be monitored [4]. 3.4 Bullish and Bearish Interpretations - **Bullish factors**: The Brazilian export premium supports the far - term contract price from the cost side; the external market continues to strengthen under the background of purchasing US soybeans; the pressure in the near - term is alleviated due to the approaching of the warrant cancellation month [5]. - **Bearish factors**: The inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in China remains high, and soybean meal will continue the seasonal inventory accumulation trend; the smooth planting in Brazil and the expected high yield in South America suppress the far - term futures price; the supply gap in the far - term is filled under the background of China - US negotiations and procurement [6][7]. 3.5 Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3015 | - 11 | - 0.36% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2818 | - 11 | - 0.39% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2935 | - 14 | - 0.47% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2497 | 6 | 0.24% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2378 | - 2 | - 0.08% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2466 | - 4 | - 0.16% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1134.5 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.127 | 0.0129 | 0.18% | [7] 3.6 Price Spreads - **Soybean meal spreads**: The spread between M01 and M05 is 197 (no daily change), between M05 and M09 is - 117 (up 3), and between M09 and M01 is - 80 (down 3). The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 3040 (no change), and the basis is 25 (up 11) [8]. - **Rapeseed meal spreads**: The spread between RM01 and RM05 is 119 (up 8), between RM05 and RM09 is - 88 (up 2), and between RM09 and RM01 is - 31 (down 10). The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2580 (up 130), and the basis is 89 (up 27) [8]. - **Soybean meal - rapeseed meal spreads**: The spot price spread is 460 (no change), and the futures price spread is 518 (down 17) [8]. 3.7 Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) | 4858.2301 | - 88.7137 | 0.2633 | | Import cost of Brazilian soybeans | 4116.33 | 60.38 | 79.49 | | Cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) | - 789.9561 | - 10.8447 | - 57.4083 | | Import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) | - 991.4751 | - 88.7137 | - 404.2412 | | Import profit of Brazilian soybeans | - 38.6558 | 0.6921 | - 10.2467 | | Import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed (futures) | 596 | - 63 | - 135 | | Import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed (spot) | 857 | - 56 | - 130 | [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growth in investment demand (monetary easing prospects and periodic safe - haven trading) will continue to push up the price center of precious metals, in the short term, the market has entered an adjustment phase. Investors should look for mid - term opportunities to add positions on dips, and those with existing long positions should continue to hold them cautiously [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Condition - On Monday, precious metal prices fluctuated and consolidated. The U.S. dollar index rose slightly, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield increased slightly, the U.S. stock market continued to fluctuate and adjust, Bitcoin fell, crude oil fluctuated, and the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index also fluctuated as a whole [2]. - The final settlement price of the COMEX gold 2512 contract was $4013.4 per ounce, down 0.06%; the U.S. silver 2512 contract settled at $48.25 per ounce, down 0.75%. The SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 922.58 yuan per gram, up 0.47%; the SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11455 yuan per kilogram, up 0.39% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations cooled slightly. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 32.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 67.3% [3]. - The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 2.58 tons to 1041.78 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings remained at 15189.82 tons. The SHFE silver inventory decreased by 6.7 tons to 658.9 tons per day; as of the week of October 24, the SGX silver inventory decreased by 145.4 tons to 905.2 tons [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the U.S. non - farm payrolls report on Friday evening. There will also be data such as ISM manufacturing and services PMI and ADP small non - farm data released during the week. Also, pay attention to whether the U.S. government shutdown will delay data releases [4]. - In terms of events, on Thursday at 08:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report. On Friday, multiple FOMC members will give speeches [4]. 3.4 Price Ranges - The resistance level for London gold is 4050 - 4100, the support level is 3900, and the strong support is in the 3800 - 3850 area; for silver, the resistance is 49.5 - 50, the support is 47.5, and the strong support is 45.5 [5]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The report also provides data on precious metal futures and spot prices, inventory and position data, and stock, bond, and commodity market data, including the U.S. dollar index, U.S. stocks, crude oil, and U.S. Treasury yields [5][13][15][19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Today, the stock index first declined and then rebounded, with small and medium - cap stock indices breaking through the 30 - day moving average during the session, while large - cap stock indices were relatively resilient. Affected by the "Notice on Improving Duty - Free Shop Policies to Support and Boost Consumption", the Hainan Free Trade concept continued to lead the gains. [4] - Recently, the news has been relatively calm, and the market is mainly driven by capital games. There is a callback pressure on the stock index as some funds in previously high - flying sectors are more willing to take profits. However, due to strong signals of stabilizing the market, the downside space of the stock index is expected to be limited. [4] - In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see. Attention should be paid to the US employment data to be released this week, as it may have a significant impact on the Fed's December interest - rate cut expectations. [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index first fell and then rose, with all indices closing up. For example, the CSI 300 index closed up 0.27%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 2106.62 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IC declined with shrinking volume, IH remained flat, and IM rose with shrinking volume. [2] Important Information - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued an announcement on the tax policy for gold, which will be implemented from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027. This policy is expected to make the gold market's consumption and investment environment more transparent and healthy. [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Asset Management Association of China solicited public opinions on the guidelines for the performance comparison benchmarks of public funds. The introduction of these two documents will promote the standardization of the performance comparison benchmarks of domestic public funds and strengthen the discipline of investment management. [3] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see. [5] Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | - 0.04 | 0.00 | - 0.34 | 0.01 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.5046 | 5.1158 | 14.0206 | 22.9133 | | Trading volume change from previous day (10,000 lots) | - 2.4816 | - 1.2191 | - 0.511 | - 2.4149 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.0097 | 9.6979 | 25.4358 | 36.2939 | | Open interest change from previous day (10,000 lots) | - 0.1034 | - 0.2629 | - 0.0107 | 0.0556 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.55 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.19 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.96 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 21071.31 | | Trading volume change from previous day (billion yuan) | - 2106.62 | [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The release of the "14th Five-Year Plan" draft and the phased consensus reached in the China-US economic and trade consultations will reduce the impact of tariff policies on the market, enhance market risk appetite, and promote the return of relevant assets to fundamental pricing. However, the China-US trade friction is a long - term battle, and continuous attention is needed on policy implementation and long - term game dynamics [2]. - The marginal decline of China's manufacturing PMI indicates weakening supply and demand, and subsequent economic development requires policy support. Overseas, after the US interest rate cut, the market will focus on employment and inflation during the US government shutdown, especially ADP data, as well as the end time of the shutdown [2]. - For various commodities, different market trends and investment suggestions are presented, such as precious metals entering a short - term adjustment phase, copper price decline being limited due to increased interest rate cut expectations, and aluminum price increase being driven by speculative funds [13][16][19]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Pay attention to US employment data. Signs of cooling in the US job market are emerging, with the number of corporate layoffs reaching a new high since 2020. The US 10 - month ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months, with weak demand and employment and cooling inflation. The euro - zone 10 - month manufacturing PMI was 50, with Germany and France continuing to contract [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - Continue to focus on the performance around 7.10. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1225 on November 3, down 90 points from the previous trading day. It is expected that the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB will operate in the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, and the key technical point around 7.10 will be the focus of the long - short battle [3]. Stock Index - The long lower shadow indicates support below, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Yesterday, the stock index first declined and then rose, and all closed up. The trading volume of the two markets declined. Futures contracts showed different trends. Due to the recent light news, the market is mainly driven by capital games. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see, and pay attention to the US employment data to be released this week [4][6]. Treasury Bonds - Maintain a long - term bullish view. On Monday, bond futures generally declined, with TS having a significant decline and other varieties slightly fluctuating downwards. The capital market is loose. The bond market has basically priced in the central bank's bond purchases, and the lack of trading hotspots in the short term. It is recommended to maintain a long - term position but not to chase high [6]. Container Shipping to Europe - The spot index correction puts pressure on the price, and the futures price will continue to fluctuate at a high level. The market is affected by both long and short factors. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to adopt a range - trading strategy [7][9][10]. Commodities Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - Continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The decline in interest rate cut expectations is slight. Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand growth will push up the price of precious metals, it is currently in a short - term adjustment phase. It is recommended to pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities on dips and hold existing long - term positions cautiously [13][14][16]. Copper - The weakening of the US manufacturing PMI drags down employment prospects, increasing interest rate cut expectations and limiting the decline of copper prices. It is recommended to pay attention to support and pressure levels, volatility - related strategies, and use option - futures combination strategies for downstream and upstream enterprises [16][17][18]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum prices are driven up by speculative funds. Currently, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market is in the transition between peak and off - peak seasons, with weak demand and stable supply. Alumina prices are expected to be weak due to supply surplus, and casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [18][19][21]. Zinc - Be vigilant against short - squeeze risks. The zinc price is strong, and there may be a short - squeeze in the LME. The smelting end has a strong willingness to cut production in November, and there is an upward driving force in November. It is recommended to wait and see exports and the macro situation [21]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fluctuate repeatedly with limited driving forces. The fundamentals and spot market are under pressure, and the 12 - month interest rate cut expectation is uncertain. It is necessary to pay attention to the new year's quota approval progress for nickel ore and the actual situation of stainless steel production cuts [22][23]. Tin - Fluctuate at a high level. The technical resistance level at 290,000 is stable. The supply is weaker than demand, and it is recommended to hold long positions for those who have entered the market and continue to observe for those who have not [24]. Lithium Carbonate - Adjust in a range. The demand of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase, which will support the futures price. [25] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly due to enterprise production cuts in the dry season, but are restricted by inventory. Polysilicon's spot market is weak, and the fundamentals are bearish [26][27]. Lead - Fluctuate in a narrow range. The high lead price makes downstream acceptance low, and the market has an expectation of future lead ingot shortage. It is recommended to use option - selling strategies to earn premiums [28]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Adjust in a range. Last week, the prices first rose and then fell. With the implementation of macro - positive factors, the price increase needs new stimuli. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coil has increased slightly, and the demand is entering the off - season. It is expected to adjust in a range [29]. Iron Ore - The arrival volume has surged. The supply is abundant, and the demand is under pressure. The price increase is limited, and it is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities after the valuation is repaired [30][31]. Coking Coal and Coke - The tight supply situation has not improved. The coking coal inventory structure has improved, and the third round of coke price increase has been proposed. The demand for coal and coke is relatively stable in the short term. It is recommended to use coal and coke as long - position varieties in the black metal sector [32][33]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Return to the weak fundamentals and adjust in a range. The high inventory and weak demand coexist. The production profit is declining, and the demand is expected to decrease. It is expected to adjust in a range [33][34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Fluctuate horizontally. The geopolitical premium has declined, and the focus is on the OPEC+ meeting. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of $60 - 65 this week, with limited upward and downward breakthrough possibilities [37][38]. LPG - Fluctuate. The supply is increasing, and the chemical demand may decline. The short - term upward driving force is limited [39][40]. PTA - PX - The "anti - involution" rumor boosts sentiment, and the processing fee is repaired at a low level. PX supply is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and PTA supply and demand have improved marginally. It is expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost, but the PTA surplus expectation remains [41][42][43]. MEG - Bottle Chip - The demand has improved marginally, but the valuation is under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - sentiment in the range of 3800 - 4200. It is recommended to use option - selling and short - selling strategies [45][46][47]. Methanol - The 01 contract may continue to decline. The delay of the Iranian gas - restriction expectation and the increase in inventory lead to the decline. It is recommended to hold existing short - call positions [48][49]. PP - The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged. The supply pressure is difficult to relieve fundamentally, and the demand support is limited. It is expected to continue the weak trend [50][51][52]. PE - The driving force is limited, and it will fluctuate weakly. The supply pressure is large, and the demand support is weak. The pattern of supply - strong and demand - weak is difficult to change. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - changes [54][55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - After the macro - factors are digested, they will fluctuate at a low level. Pure benzene is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and styrene has high inventory and de - stocking pressure. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [56][58][59]. Fuel Oil - The crack spread weakens. The high - sulfur fuel oil is in a situation of strong expectation and weak reality, and it is recommended to be bearish on the high - sulfur crack spread [60]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The crack spread strengthens. The improvement of China - US relations and the expectation of supply shortage boost the market [61]. Asphalt - Continue to decline. The supply has decreased, the demand is weak, and the inventory structure has improved. It is recommended to wait and see or try short - selling after the futures price reaches the pressure level [62][63]. Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - The supply and demand are under pressure, and they will fluctuate weakly with the sector. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is limited. It is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in a wide range [64]. Urea - Fluctuate weakly. The supply is increasing, and the domestic demand is weak. It is expected to face pressure in the future [65][66]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash: The supply is expected to remain high, and the price is restricted by high inventory but supported by cost [67]. - Glass: The inventory is declining, but the influence of the coal - to - gas project in Shahe is limited. The game may continue until near the delivery [68]. - Caustic soda: The production is returning, and the market pressure is increasing. The price is restricted by high profit and long - term production capacity expansion [69][70]. Pulp and Offset Paper - The paper price increase is implemented, and the futures price rises. The supply pressure of pulp is slightly reduced, and the demand is mixed. The price of offset paper is expected to be positively affected by the price increase of some enterprises. It is expected to fluctuate or fluctuate slightly strongly in the short term [70][71]. Logs - The spot price in Lanshan continues to decline, and the weak trend continues. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The deepening of the discount in the 11 - 01 contract is worthy of attention [72][73][74].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - In the first ten months of 2025, a total of 87 companies were listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and Beijing Stock Exchange, raising a total of 901.23 billion yuan in funds, indicating a robust capital market activity in China [1]. Group 1: Listing and Fundraising - A total of 87 companies were listed, with 29 on the main board, 29 on the ChiNext, 11 on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, and 18 on the Beijing Stock Exchange [1]. - The total fundraising amount reached 901.23 billion yuan, with Huadian New Energy leading at 181.71 billion yuan [1]. - Other notable fundraisers included Xi'an Yicai and Zhongce Rubber, raising 46.36 billion yuan and 40.66 billion yuan respectively [1]. Group 2: Underwriting and Sponsorship Fees - 33 securities firms participated in the underwriting and sponsorship of the newly listed companies, earning a total of 44.59 billion yuan in fees [1]. - Guotai Junan ranked first in underwriting fees, earning 58.83 million yuan from sponsoring nine companies [1]. - CITIC Securities and CITIC Jianzhong followed in the ranking, earning 54.50 million yuan and 53.56 million yuan respectively [2]. Group 3: Detailed Underwriting Contributions - Guotai Junan sponsored nine companies, including Changjiang Nengke and United Power [1]. - CITIC Securities sponsored seven companies, including Xi'an Yicai and Ruili Kemi [2]. - CITIC Jianzhong sponsored seven companies, including Daosheng Tianhe and Zhongce Rubber [2]. Group 4: Overall Market Performance - The top five securities firms accounted for 50.77% of the total underwriting fees, amounting to 22.64 billion yuan [4]. - Other firms in the top ten included CICC, China Merchants Securities, and Shenwan Hongyuan, with fees ranging from 13.66 million yuan to 23.16 million yuan [4].

Core Insights - The diversified financial sector experienced a slight increase of 0.39% on November 3, with *ST Xiongmao leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3976.52, up 0.55%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13404.06, up 0.19% [1] Stock Performance Summary - *ST Nengmao saw a closing price of 9.93, with a rise of 4.97% and a trading volume of 64,400 shares, totaling a transaction value of 62.95 million yuan [1] - Haide Co. closed at 7.86, up 4.80%, with a trading volume of 946,100 shares and a transaction value of 730 million yuan [1] - Jiuding Investment closed at 19.64, increasing by 4.36%, with a trading volume of 182,400 shares and a transaction value of 356 million yuan [1] - Sichuan Shuangma closed at 21.18, up 4.13%, with a trading volume of 167,000 shares and a transaction value of 350 million yuan [1] - Zhejiang Dongfang closed at 7.36, increasing by 2.79%, with a trading volume of 3,129,800 shares and a transaction value of 2.277 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The diversified financial sector saw a net outflow of 13.69 million yuan from institutional investors and 17.34 million yuan from retail investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 31.03 million yuan [2] - Haide Co. had a net inflow of 81.16 million yuan from institutional investors, while experiencing a net outflow of 82.36 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Sichuan Shuangma recorded a net inflow of 44.44 million yuan from institutional investors, with net outflows from both retail and speculative investors [3]

期货策略周报 I 2025 年 11 月 03 日 该来的都会来 本周主要观点： 当下大环境是宏观需求面偏弱，部分品种此前产业利润偏 高，有补跌的需求。但从估值来说，整体估值偏低，大部分品种 追空的意义不大，选择等待或许是最佳选择。下跌过程也是检验 基本面最好的办法，只有那些真正具备基本面改善的品种，才能 在市场整体下跌过程中表现出持久抗跌。可以关注几类：一是持 续背离结构的品种；二是下跌增仓放量且抗跌的品种。 风险点：反内卷政策落实、宏观政策变化、产业供应变化； 重要声明：本报告内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 南华研究院 投资咨询证号：Z0013611 王建锋 投资咨询证号：Z0010946 胡乐克 投资咨询证号：Z0013991 陈敏涛 期货从业证号：Z0022731 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 该来的都会来 期货策略周报 I 2025 年 11 月 03 日 周行情观点综述 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1290 号 顾双飞 按照宏观需求逻辑来看，甲醇此前的生产利润偏高，甲醇近期的走弱，可以理 解为补跌。在宏观需求整体偏弱的背景下，产业利润偏高，难以持续长久，估值回 落是大概率事 ...