彭思宇 国信证券医药分析师: 各位投资人下午好，非常感谢大家在大年初七的这样一个下午，来指导我们国信证券新春 系列的这样一些电话会。那本场是医药专场，我是国信医药分析师彭思宇。那我们的主题 是看好底部反转的医疗服务和药店板块。其实不仅仅是服务和药店板块，在医药行业里面 偏消费的板块，我们目前都是非常看好的，医疗服务和消费相关的这样一些板块，如果看 估值的话，经过了非常漫长的这样一个调整的时期，此时此刻估值可以说是处于一个历史 的低分位数。 同时我们从 1 月份上市公司给到的一些数据来看的话，1 月份的这个收入的增长态势也是 比较不错的。即使我们剔除掉去年有过年一个因素的影响，也是有不错的增长。比如说固 生堂，在交流中，他也透露了相关的一些情况。这是基本面的一个修复情况。另外我们也 可以看到，AI 这一块也会给医疗服务相关的一些企业带来赋能。那在 AI 赋能方面的话， AI 相关的业务的落地和和赋能，为领先的医疗服务企业带来全新的一个增长动力。我们看 到蚂蚁集团旗下的这个 AI 健康应用，于去年的 6 月份，2025 年 6 月份首次以 A Q 之名 亮相市场，同时在去年的 12 月 15 号正式升级更名为这个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the financing, investment, logistics, and merger activities of China's chain pharmacy industry, emphasizing the importance of logistics center construction and the trend of expanding business scale and diversification among leading companies [1][8]. Financing Situation - The primary financing methods for listed companies in the chain pharmacy industry include private placements and convertible bonds, mainly aimed at constructing logistics centers, opening new pharmacies, and supplementing working capital [1]. - Key financing events since 2022 include: - Yifeng Pharmacy raised 2.547 billion yuan for logistics and digital platform upgrades [1]. - Yixin Tang raised up to 1.5 billion yuan for new pharmacies and logistics projects [1]. - Daclin raised 3.025 billion yuan for new chain pharmacies [1]. - Shuyupingmin raised up to 800 million yuan for modern logistics projects [1]. - Jianzhijia raised 410 million yuan for logistics center projects [1]. Investment Activities - From 2020 to 2025, major companies like Daclin, Yifeng Pharmacy, and Laobaixing have been actively investing, with Daclin leading with 36 investment events, followed by Yifeng Pharmacy with 14 and Laobaixing with 13 [5][6]. - The investment purposes include expanding business scale and diversifying operations, with companies investing in subsidiaries across different regions to enhance their market presence [8][10]. Merger and Acquisition Trends - Recent mergers and acquisitions in the chain pharmacy industry are primarily aimed at expanding the scale of midstream enterprises, often involving the acquisition of other pharmacy brands to increase store numbers and improve regional business layouts [11]. - Notable merger events include: - Huaren Health's acquisition of three pharmacy chains in Fujian and Zhejiang to expand its market presence [11]. - Yixin Tang's acquisition of multiple pharmacies in Sichuan to enhance competitiveness [11]. - Laobaixing's acquisition of a pharmacy chain in Anhui to strengthen market position [11]. Logistics Center Development - The construction of logistics centers is identified as a major purpose for financing, with companies focusing on enhancing their supply chain efficiency and operational capabilities [1][8].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the medical services and consumer-related sectors have experienced long-term adjustments, resulting in valuations at historical lows. By 2026, improvements in supply structure, increased treatment volumes, and store optimization are expected to lead to a dual recovery in fundamentals and valuations, with AI empowerment providing new momentum for leading companies [1][2]. Group 1: Medical Services and Consumer Sectors - The medical services and consumer-related sectors are currently undervalued and poised for performance recovery, with a focus on specific sub-sectors [2]. - In medical services, improvements in supply structure and consumer environment are anticipated to gradually revive business, with stable customer spending and increased treatment volumes. Leading companies are expected to provide positive earnings guidance for 2026, indicating a potential dual recovery in fundamentals and valuations. AI-related business developments are also expected to drive new growth for leading medical service firms. Key companies to watch include Aier Eye Hospital (300015), Gushengtang, Tongce Medical (600763), and Haijia Medical [2]. - The pharmacy sector has shown significant marginal improvement in performance since Q3 2025, with leading companies improving same-store performance quarterly. Regulatory support from nine ministries emphasizes the long-term development direction of industry concentration and chain rate enhancement, with non-pharmaceutical adjustments and store structure optimization driving short-term performance improvements. Key companies include Yifeng Pharmacy (603939) and Dazhenglin (603233) [2]. Group 2: Home Medical Devices - The growth of home medical device companies is driven by increased product penetration and domestic production rates. Rapid growth is observed in products like Continuous Glucose Monitors (CGM) and sleep apnea machines, with leading domestic brands expanding internationally. Traditional categories like blood pressure monitors are increasingly focusing on the high-end market, with domestic brands steadily increasing market share. The combination of high domestic growth and new overseas markets is expected to contribute to sustained performance growth for home medical device companies. Key companies include Yuyue Medical (002223), Kefu Medical (301087), Sanofi Biological (300298), and Ruimaite (301367) [3]. Group 3: Innovative Drug Development - The collaboration for the international expansion of innovative drugs continues to deepen, with recent significant agreements between Shiyao Group and AstraZeneca, as well as Innovent Biologics and Eli Lilly. These collaborations highlight the growing recognition of China's innovative drug development capabilities by multinational pharmaceutical companies, showcasing the efficiency and cost advantages of Chinese innovative drugs [4]. Group 4: Investment Portfolio for 2026 - The investment portfolio for 2026 includes A-shares such as Mindray Medical (300760), United Imaging Healthcare, WuXi AppTec (603259), New Industry (300832), Meihua Medical (301363), Adebiotech (300685), Zhend Medical (603301), Yaokang Biological, Kingmed Diagnostics (603882), Aier Eye Hospital, Yuyue Medical, Yifeng Pharmacy, and Dazhenglin; H-shares include Kangfang Biologics, Kelun-Botai Biologics-B, Hutchison China MediTech, Kangnuo-B, Sanofi Biopharma, Gushengtang, and Aikang Medical [5].

Market Overview - The pharmaceutical commercial sector experienced a decline of 2.02% on February 2, with Dazhenglin leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] Individual Stock Performance - The following stocks showed notable performance: - Huaren Health (301408) closed at 21.12, up 0.43% with a trading volume of 177,200 shares and a turnover of 379 million yuan [1] - Dazhenglin (603233) closed at 19.05, down 4.75% with a trading volume of 121,000 shares and a turnover of 235 million yuan [2] - Yifeng Pharmacy (603939) closed at 22.97, down 3.85% with a trading volume of 202,900 shares and a turnover of 472 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The pharmaceutical commercial sector saw a net outflow of 208 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 166 million yuan [2] - The following stocks had significant capital flows: - Yifeng Pharmacy had a net inflow of 52.27 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 61.65 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Nanjing Pharmaceutical (600713) had a net inflow of 7.79 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 11.72 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Core Insights - The report discusses the development prospects and investment strategies of the Chinese chain pharmacy industry, highlighting key players and market dynamics [1][12]. Industry Overview - The chain pharmacy industry supply chain consists of upstream manufacturers, medical device producers, health product manufacturers, and pharmaceutical logistics suppliers; the midstream is represented by chain pharmacies, while downstream customers include both offline and online clients [1][2]. Key Players - Major listed companies in the chain pharmacy sector include Dazhonglin, Yifeng Pharmacy, and Laobaixing, among others [1][2]. Regional Distribution - Upstream suppliers are primarily located in Beijing, Jiangsu, Hubei, and Hunan, while chain pharmacy operations are concentrated in Hunan, Yunnan, Guangdong, and Shanghai [6]. Financial Performance - By the first half of 2025, three listed chain pharmacy companies, including Guoyao Holdings, Dazhonglin, and Yifeng Pharmacy, are projected to exceed 10 billion yuan in operating revenue, with gross margins above 15%, and Yifeng Pharmacy exceeding 40% [8][9]. Investment Trends - Since 2024, chain pharmacy companies have focused on increasing capital in subsidiaries and acquisitions to improve financial structures and expand sales channels [10]. - Notable investment activities include: - Jianzhijia's capital increase of 466 million yuan across five subsidiaries [11] - Yixintang's investment of 32.8 million yuan in land use rights [11] - Tongrentang's acquisition of a 51% stake in Honghui Pharmaceutical for approximately 10.46 million yuan [11].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share pharmaceutical retail sector is experiencing a significant rebound, driven by a new policy aimed at promoting high-quality development in the industry, which is expected to help around 700,000 pharmacies currently facing challenges [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The pharmaceutical retail industry is undergoing a wave of closures, with a projected net closure of 39,000 stores in 2024, significantly higher than the 3.8% closure rate in 2023 [5][6]. - The market is witnessing a shift from passive closures to proactive consolidation, as the new policy addresses industry pain points and encourages mergers and acquisitions [2][3][9]. - The concentration of the market is increasing, with the top 10 companies expected to reach a market share of over 35% by 2026, moving towards the levels seen in mature markets [9]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Major players in the industry are facing declining revenues and profits, with companies like YaoYao and GuoDa Pharmacy reporting significant drops in net profits, highlighting the financial strain on the sector [4][5]. - Only one out of six major private listed chains, Yifeng Pharmacy, is expected to achieve positive net profit growth in 2024, indicating a narrowing profitability landscape [5][6]. Group 3: Policy Impact - The new policy aims to standardize and optimize the merger and acquisition process, reducing costs and time for major chains, thus facilitating industry consolidation [7][9]. - The policy encourages a shift from a focus on drug sales to a broader health service model, aligning with changing consumer demands and promoting diversification in product offerings [8][9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The industry is expected to evolve from merely selling drugs to becoming comprehensive health service providers, enhancing efficiency and better meeting consumer needs [10][11]. - The ongoing transformation is anticipated to eliminate inefficient capacities and elevate industry standards, marking a transition to a new phase of value growth [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [3] Core Insights - The recent policy released by the Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments aims to promote high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail industry, which is expected to accelerate industry consolidation and benefit leading companies [6][28] - The pharmaceutical retail sector is anticipated to see improved performance expectations due to favorable policies, with a recommendation to focus on quality pharmacy enterprises such as Yifeng Pharmacy and Dazhenglin [6][33] Market Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology index decreased by 0.39% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.23 percentage points, ranking 27th in industry performance [11] - Year-to-date, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology index has increased by 6.66%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.1 percentage points, ranking 16th [11] - The best-performing sub-sector this week was pharmaceutical commerce, which rose by 4.26%, while chemical pharmaceuticals fell by 1.11% [17] Stock Performance - Among 478 pharmaceutical and biotechnology stocks, 338 stocks increased, representing 70.71% of the total [22] - The top five A-share stocks by performance this week were: *ST Changyao (+70.37%), Hualan Biological Engineering (+32.21%), Kangzhong Medical (+25.47%), Hanshang Group (+20.06%), and Wanze Shares (+19.04%) [22] - In the Hong Kong market, 116 pharmaceutical and biotechnology stocks saw 32 stocks rise, accounting for 27.59% [25] Industry News and Policies - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments released an opinion on promoting high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail industry, proposing 18 specific measures to enhance service quality and optimize industry structure [28] - The FDA granted fast-track designation to CM336, a dual antibody developed by Kangnuo, for the treatment of autoimmune hemolytic anemia and immune thrombocytopenia [31] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on quality pharmacy enterprises in light of the favorable policies for the pharmaceutical retail sector [33] - It also highlights the potential for vaccine companies in response to the recent Nipah virus cases in India, recommending attention to companies like Zhifei Biological, Kangtai Biological, Watson Bio, and CanSino [34]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that innovative drugs are expected to show significant excess returns in 2025, driven by continuous BD overseas expansion, excellent clinical data, and policy support [1] - The CXO sector is anticipated to experience substantial growth due to the recovery in demand and improved investment environment in the global pharmaceutical industry [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on new technologies, particularly bispecific antibodies, small nucleic acid drugs, AI healthcare, and brain-computer interface innovations [3] Group 2 - Domestic supply and demand are relatively stable, with national health expenditure showing a year-on-year growth of 4.7% from January to November 2025, marking a positive turnaround after two years of decline [2] - The medical insurance fund's income and expenditure growth rates continue to decline, with total income of 2.63 trillion yuan (+2.9%) and expenditure of 2.11 trillion yuan (+0.5%) from January to November [2] - The report suggests that the commercialization of new drug forms is entering a critical phase, with significant clinical data supporting the application of B-cell depletion therapies in autoimmune diseases [3] Group 3 - Investment recommendations include focusing on innovative overseas expansion and new technology directions, with suggested stocks such as Mindray Medical, WuXi AppTec, and others [4] - The report highlights the potential for explosive growth in the global market for brain-computer interfaces, supported by policy incentives and technological breakthroughs [3]

Core Viewpoint - The joint issuance of the "Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Development of the Pharmaceutical Retail Industry" by nine departments aims to enhance the industry through 18 measures focusing on mergers and acquisitions, service transformation, and regulatory optimization [1] Group 1: Industry Impact - The "Opinions" are expected to accelerate the outflow of hospital prescriptions, contributing to growth in the pharmaceutical retail sector [1] - The document encourages horizontal mergers and acquisitions among retail pharmaceutical companies, aiming to optimize the business environment and streamline the licensing process for integrated stores [1][2] - The number of pharmacies in China is projected to decline, with a total of 686,426 stores by the end of Q3 2025, marking a reduction of nearly 20,000 stores since Q4 2024 [2] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The rapid exit of small and medium-sized pharmacies creates market opportunities for leading companies to consolidate and expand their market share through mergers and acquisitions [2] - The "Opinions" promote the transformation of pharmacies from mere sales points to health service hubs, providing new growth avenues for listed pharmacies facing revenue stagnation [2] Group 3: Compliance and Management - Regulatory changes are pushing for a shift towards digital and preventive oversight, enhancing compliance advantages for listed pharmacies compared to smaller competitors [3] - Companies like Yifeng Pharmacy have demonstrated significant profit growth through refined management and compliance, with a 10.27% increase in net profit year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025 [3] - The core competitiveness of retail pharmacies is increasingly seen in their professional capabilities, with companies developing comprehensive pharmaceutical service systems [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy document issued by multiple government departments aims to promote high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail industry, leading to a surge in stock prices of major pharmacy chains in the A-share market [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The policy document outlines 18 specific measures to enhance the pharmaceutical retail sector, focusing on professionalization, digitalization, and regulatory compliance [1]. - Key initiatives include improving pharmacy service capabilities, supporting mergers and acquisitions among retail pharmacies, and fostering a fair competitive market environment [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - The policy is expected to drive mergers and acquisitions, increasing industry concentration and facilitating the transition of pharmacies from "drug sales" to "comprehensive services" [2]. - Leading pharmacy chains such as Yifeng Pharmacy and Dacelins have seen significant stock price increases, with Yifeng's store count projected to exceed 14,666 by September 2025, and Dacelins operating 17,385 stores [3]. Group 3: Benefits to Other Companies - Other pharmaceutical companies like Shanghai Pharmaceuticals, China Resources Pharmaceutical, and Jiuzhoutong are anticipated to benefit from the integration of wholesale and retail operations, enhancing their revenue potential [3]. - The policy encourages retail pharmacies to enhance their service capabilities, which may benefit digital and supply chain service providers in the healthcare sector [4].