证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 技术加持稳定原料药出口竞争力 医药行业周报 分析师：胡博新 SAC编号：S1050522120002 分析师：吴景欢 SAC编号：S1050523070004 医 药 行 业 观 点 2 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 医 药 行 业 观 点 投资评级： 报告日期： 推荐 （ 维持 ） 2026年02月01日 1.技术加持稳定原料药出口竞争力，重视供给变量 根据医保商会数据，2025年中国医药保健品出口额1113.41亿美元，增长3.14%，其中西药原料出口额428.67亿美元，占西 药总出口的76.8%，同比微降0.27%。原料药出口能保持出口总量的相对稳定，是克服全球贸易变局和内部价格竞争内卷下 实现的，是中国原料药产业竞争力的体现。受关税贸易影响，2025年中国对美国医药出口下降了10.6%，而非美市场，欧 盟增长11.38%，新兴市场增长4.49%。展望2026年原料药贸易依然存在较多的不确定性，中国与印度之间原料药竞争合作 将进一步演绎。价格方面，价格竞争内卷是一方面，另一方面合成生物学等新技术加持，新工艺新产能的投产，单位成本 下降是重要一面。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that innovative drugs are expected to show significant excess returns in 2025, driven by continuous BD overseas expansion, excellent clinical data, and policy support [1] - The CXO sector is anticipated to experience substantial growth due to the recovery in demand and improved investment environment in the global pharmaceutical industry [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on new technologies, particularly bispecific antibodies, small nucleic acid drugs, AI healthcare, and brain-computer interface innovations [3] Group 2 - Domestic supply and demand are relatively stable, with national health expenditure showing a year-on-year growth of 4.7% from January to November 2025, marking a positive turnaround after two years of decline [2] - The medical insurance fund's income and expenditure growth rates continue to decline, with total income of 2.63 trillion yuan (+2.9%) and expenditure of 2.11 trillion yuan (+0.5%) from January to November [2] - The report suggests that the commercialization of new drug forms is entering a critical phase, with significant clinical data supporting the application of B-cell depletion therapies in autoimmune diseases [3] Group 3 - Investment recommendations include focusing on innovative overseas expansion and new technology directions, with suggested stocks such as Mindray Medical, WuXi AppTec, and others [4] - The report highlights the potential for explosive growth in the global market for brain-computer interfaces, supported by policy incentives and technological breakthroughs [3]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, particularly focusing on the overseas expansion of innovative drugs and the adoption of new technologies [1][4]. - The investment rating for the sector is maintained at "outperform the market" [2]. Group 1: Market Overview and Trends - The overseas market for innovative drugs and the CXO industry is expected to perform exceptionally well in 2025, driven by continuous business development (BD) activities, strong clinical data, and supportive policies [4]. - The domestic supply and demand remain stable, with a shift in payment systems favoring innovation. National health expenditure increased by 4.7% year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2025, marking a recovery after two years of decline [4]. - The report highlights the significant growth potential in new drug forms such as dual antibodies and small nucleic acid drugs, as well as innovations in AI healthcare and brain-machine interfaces [4]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with global competitiveness and differentiated innovation capabilities, as well as domestic CXO leaders with high barriers in cost control, technology accumulation, and production capacity [4]. - Recommended stocks include Mindray Medical, WuXi AppTec, Kelaiying, Aier Eye Hospital, and several others, with specific mention of H-shares like Kelun-Bio and CanSino Biologics [4][5]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Projections - The report provides a detailed strategy portfolio for 2026, listing companies along with their projected net profits and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, indicating a generally positive outlook for the sector [5]. - The pharmaceutical sector's overall performance in 2025 was strong, with significant gains in sub-sectors such as medical services and chemical pharmaceuticals, driven by BD collaborations and clinical data releases [12][23]. Group 4: Fund Holdings and Market Sentiment - As of Q4 2025, the net asset value of pharmaceutical funds decreased by 9.0%, with a notable shift where passive funds surpassed active funds for the first time since 2019 [25][32]. - The report indicates a decline in the proportion of pharmaceutical holdings in both active and non-pharmaceutical funds, with a concentration in chemical preparations and other biological products [32][40].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2][4]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector has shown strong performance, with the SW Pharmaceutical Biotechnology Index rising by 7.81% in the week of January 5-11, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which increased by 2.79% [2]. - Key drivers of this growth include advancements in brain-computer interfaces, small nucleic acids, and AI healthcare technologies [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential of innovation in overseas markets and hard technology, particularly in AI healthcare and brain-computer interfaces, as major growth areas for the pharmaceutical industry in 2026 [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to continue its positive trajectory into 2026, driven by innovation and technological advancements [1]. - The report highlights the importance of the "AI + Health" investment trend, particularly with the launch of the Ant Group's "Afu" app, which focuses on health management [1][2]. Market Performance - The report notes that various sub-sectors, including hospitals, CXO, and medical devices, have experienced significant gains, with increases of 13.92%, 11.15%, and 10.81% respectively [2]. - The Hong Kong market has also seen a rebound in innovative drugs, with the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index rising by 11.06% [2]. Future Outlook - The report identifies three main sources of growth for the pharmaceutical industry: innovation in overseas markets, structural growth under the medical insurance payment framework, and natural growth from government finance and personal demand [2]. - Investment opportunities are expected to arise from the expansion of innovative drugs, hard technology, and the ongoing development of AI healthcare applications [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of January 11, 2026 [3] Core Insights - 2025 marked a significant year for Chinese innovative drugs going overseas, with total transaction amounts reaching $135.655 billion, including $7 billion in upfront payments and 157 deals, setting historical highs [4] - The innovative drug index saw a 35.31% increase in 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 17.65% [4] - The trend of Chinese innovative drugs going global is expected to strengthen in 2026, with significant deals such as the one between Yilian Biotech and Roche for the YL201 project, which includes a $570 million upfront payment [4] - The small nucleic acid drug sector is experiencing breakthroughs, with GSK's Bepirovirsen showing positive results in Phase III trials for chronic hepatitis B, potentially becoming the first drug to achieve functional cure [5] - The report highlights the importance of oral autoimmune drugs, with Takeda's TYK2 inhibitor showing promising results in treating moderate to severe plaque psoriasis [6] - The brain-computer interface technology is entering a critical industrialization phase, with companies like Neuralink set to produce devices in 2026, supported by favorable policies and clinical trials in China [8] - The ZAP-X radiotherapy device is expected to capture a significant market opportunity in China, with the non-invasive tumor radiotherapy market projected to grow from RMB 27.2 billion in 2018 to RMB 59.4 billion by 2024 [10] Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Market Tracking - The pharmaceutical industry index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.13% over the past week, ranking 25th among 31 industry indices [28] - Over the past month, the pharmaceutical industry index also lagged behind the CSI 300 by 5.42%, ranking 27th [29] 2. Pharmaceutical Sector Trends and Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the pharmaceutical industry index is 36.95, above the five-year historical average of 31.12 [52] 3. Recent Research Achievements - The report includes various deep-dive studies on topics such as the growth of biological agents and oral drugs, and the impact of policy support on the inhalation drug industry [55] 4. Important Industry Policies and News - Recent policies include the issuance of the fourth batch of encouraged generic drug directories by the National Medical Products Administration [57] - Significant news includes GSK's announcement of positive Phase III results for Bepirovirsen and Yilian Biotech's licensing agreement with Roche [58][59]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing structural heat, with certain stocks entering a value range, indicating potential for rebound. The focus for 2026 includes three main narratives: innovation going global, turnaround from difficulties, and impulse-driven growth, particularly in BD 2.0, small nucleic acids, and supply chains [1][2] Key Insights and Arguments - The CRO (Contract Research Organization) industry has seen short-term risks largely mitigated, with limited impact from the U.S. NBA 2026 Act. The CRO supply chain is expected to experience a resonance of internal and external demand starting in 2024, leading to a strong fundamental outlook by 2026 [1][4] - In the clinical CRO space, companies like Tigermed are showing significant order growth, with EPS expected to experience nonlinear growth, enhancing stock price elasticity. The peptide CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) sector is also expected to grow at least 25% by 2026, with companies like WuXi AppTec and Notch being noteworthy [1][4][5] - CDMO companies are driven by large product orders, with ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugates) and small nucleic acids identified as key future growth areas. ADC commercialization is entering a boom phase, benefiting companies like WuXi Biologics, Haoyuan, and Kelaiying [1][6] Additional Important Content - The Ant Group's healthcare model, Antifufu, aims to become a leading health service consultation platform, targeting 500 million registered users and over 100 million monthly active users by the end of 2026. The healthcare team has been elevated to a business group, aiming for revenue exceeding 100 billion [2][7] - Antifufu's technology is based on the "Bailing" general model, integrating Deepseek and Tongyi Qianwen technologies, utilizing proprietary medical data from various sources, including 700 million medical insurance users and 40,000 doctors from acquired platforms [2][8] - User retention strategies for Antifufu include health goal setting and integration with wearable devices, aiming for increased interaction frequency [2][9] - The commercialization strategy includes paid consultations, medication purchases, and health membership services, with B2B collaborations with insurance companies for disease-specific insurance products [2][10] - Collaboration with Alibaba Health leverages a vast user base and medical data, enhancing competitive advantages in the healthcare sector [2][11] - The AI-powered "Famous Doctor Avatar" service is currently in a testing phase, with plans for monetization contingent on achieving high diagnostic accuracy [2][12]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical industry is significantly influenced by medical insurance payment policies, which have evolved through four stages: moderate growth, rapid expansion, initial cost control, and comprehensive management [1][4][5] - The medical device sector is expected to have a positive outlook in the coming years, with a focus on overseas patent protection, market access, and commercialization capabilities [1][6] - The innovation drug sector is seeing a normalization of overseas expansion, with strong demand for cross-border collaboration and manageable pharmaceutical tariff risks [1][10] Core Insights and Arguments - The investment outlook for the pharmaceutical industry in 2026 is divided into four parts: overall industry investment views, consumer healthcare and bioproducts, pharmaceutical and biotechnology, and medical devices and services [2] - The first three quarters of 2025 showed a mixed performance among pharmaceutical companies, with the innovative drug sector performing relatively well, while medical devices and retail showed improved growth rates [1][8] - The consensus on high-quality development indicates a slowdown across different terminals, with online channels performing better [1][9] Investment Opportunities and Risks - The integration and mergers within the industry are expected to create new cyclical opportunities, particularly for CXO companies with high overseas business ratios [1][12] - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is undergoing positive changes, with companies focusing on inventory reduction and improving terminal sales speed [1][15][16] - The blood products industry is facing challenges due to changes in supply-demand dynamics, but there are opportunities in expanding application scenarios due to aging populations and clinical awareness [1][17] Additional Important Insights - The vaccine industry is under pressure but presents investment opportunities in overseas expansion, new product development, and mergers [3][18] - The retail pharmaceutical sector is currently focused on inventory adjustments and diversification, with a potential for valuation improvement through multi-channel strategies [20] - The medical circulation industry is lagging due to regulatory pressures but shows resilience among leading companies [21] Future Trends and Developments - The internationalization of Chinese innovative drugs is characterized by a significant increase in licensing deals and global competitiveness [26][28] - The medical device sector is rebounding after a period of decline, with growth driven by innovation, overseas expansion, and mergers [35] - High-value consumables and IVD sectors are expected to see improvements as procurement policies optimize and domestic manufacturers grow [38][47] Conclusion - Overall, the medical device and service sectors are projected to have substantial growth potential, despite current challenges, with optimism for future investment opportunities [50]

Core Insights - The three major stock indices experienced a slight decline on November 12, with the pharmaceutical sector showing strength, particularly with stocks like Yaoyigou hitting the daily limit and Jianfa Zhixin rising over 10% [2] Industry Summary - The National Disease Control and Prevention Administration held a press conference on November 10 regarding the prevention and control of acute respiratory infectious diseases during the autumn and winter seasons. Monitoring data indicates that flu activity in China is currently on the rise, with the H3N2 subtype accounting for over 95% of cases [2] - The China Securities Journal reports that the trend of innovation going global is clear, with the pharmaceutical sector leading the way. The ongoing reform in drug review processes is yielding benefits, and the Chinese innovative drug industry has entered a 2.0 era, shifting from "import imitation" to "innovation output" [2] - The report highlights that the development of innovative drugs is supported by improved investment and financing data, indicating a new cycle for CXO and upstream sectors. The potential for medical devices and other categories to also expand internationally is promising [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong rebound in the innovative drug sector, with the Hang Seng Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovative Drug Selected 50 Index rising by 2.34% and the Tianhong Innovative Drug ETF (517380) increasing by 2.16% as of the report date [1] - The Tianhong Innovative Drug ETF has seen a net inflow of over 83 million yuan in the last 10 trading days, with 7 days of net inflow [1] - The ETF tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovative Drug Selected 50 Index, covering the entire industry chain from preclinical research to commercialization, including A-share and Hong Kong stock innovative drug and CXO leading enterprises [1] Group 2 - BeiGene reported a total revenue of 27.595 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 44.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.139 billion yuan [1] - In Q3 2025, BeiGene's revenue reached 10.077 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.1%, with a net profit of 689 million yuan [1] - The growth is primarily driven by sales of self-developed products such as Baiyueze® (Zebutinib capsules) and licensed products from Amgen, as well as Baizean® (Trelatuzumab injection) [1] Group 3 - The Chongqing Municipal Economic and Information Technology Commission announced 25 policy measures aimed at supporting the high-quality development of the innovative drug industry [2] - These measures are designed to address development bottlenecks in the innovative drug sector and accelerate the development and application of innovative drugs [2] - China’s innovative drug industry is transitioning to a 2.0 era, moving from "import imitation" to "innovation output," supported by domestic engineer advantages, rich clinical resources, and favorable policies [2] Group 4 - The current trend of "innovation + internationalization" in the innovative drug sector remains unchanged, with ongoing business development (BD) activities sustaining the sector's attractiveness [2] - The innovative drug sector is expected to enter a new cycle of investment and financing improvements, particularly for CXO and upstream companies [2]

Core Insights - The report from CICC highlights a clear trend of innovation going global in the biopharmaceutical sector, with a shift from "importing and imitating" to "innovating and exporting" in China's pharmaceutical industry [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The pharmaceutical review reform continues to yield benefits, supported by domestic engineering talent, abundant clinical resources, and favorable policies, marking the entry of China's innovative drug industry into its 2.0 era [1] - The internal demand, which has been weak, is gradually improving, and breakthroughs in commercial insurance are alleviating payment conflicts [1] - The medical anti-corruption campaign that began in 2023 is expected to transition into normalization in 2024, with a gradual easing of its impact on the industry by 2025 [1] Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - Policies aimed at reducing internal competition are reflected in the pharmaceutical procurement sector, where the price anchors for the first batch of generic drug procurements have loosened, moving away from a sole focus on low prices [1] - The exploration of a diversified payment system is ongoing, with increasing calls for commercial insurance [1] - The impact of policy shocks on regions is easing, and while internal demand remains weak in the short term, there are signs of improvement [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The "dumbbell strategy" for 2026 remains applicable, emphasizing a combination of technological advancement and traditional defensive measures [1] - There is optimism regarding the progressive attributes of medical technology, with notable developments in AI and healthcare alongside breakthroughs in innovative drugs and internationalization [1]