投资评级： 报告日期： 推荐 （ 维持 ） 2026年01月11日 分析师：胡博新 SAC编号：S1050522120002 分析师：吴景欢 SAC编号：S1050523070004 医 药 行 业 观 点 证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 创新出海迎来开门红 医药行业周报 1.创新出海迎来开门红，创新药配置有望回升 2025年是中国创新药出海具有标志性意义的一年，根据医药魔方NextPharma®数据库显示，截至2025年12月31日，中国 创新药BD出海授权全年交易总金额达到1356.55亿美元，首付款70亿美元，交易总数量达到157起，各个维度的数据统计 均达到了历史新高。进入2026年，中国创新出海迎来开门红，1月9日，宜联生物宣布已与罗氏就YL201项目达成一项新的 独家许可协议，将联合推进该款靶向B7H3的候选创新抗体偶联药物（ADC）在多种实体瘤适应症中的开发和商业化。宜联 生物将获得5.7亿美元首付款及近期里程碑付款，并有权获得额外的开发，注册和商业化里程碑付款，以及YL201在海外获 批上市后基于净销售额的分级特许权使用费。2025年也是创新药估值重塑的一年，创新药出海不仅为中国企业获得研发 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing structural heat, with certain stocks entering a value range, indicating potential for rebound. The focus for 2026 includes three main narratives: innovation going global, turnaround from difficulties, and impulse-driven growth, particularly in BD 2.0, small nucleic acids, and supply chains [1][2] Key Insights and Arguments - The CRO (Contract Research Organization) industry has seen short-term risks largely mitigated, with limited impact from the U.S. NBA 2026 Act. The CRO supply chain is expected to experience a resonance of internal and external demand starting in 2024, leading to a strong fundamental outlook by 2026 [1][4] - In the clinical CRO space, companies like Tigermed are showing significant order growth, with EPS expected to experience nonlinear growth, enhancing stock price elasticity. The peptide CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) sector is also expected to grow at least 25% by 2026, with companies like WuXi AppTec and Notch being noteworthy [1][4][5] - CDMO companies are driven by large product orders, with ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugates) and small nucleic acids identified as key future growth areas. ADC commercialization is entering a boom phase, benefiting companies like WuXi Biologics, Haoyuan, and Kelaiying [1][6] Additional Important Content - The Ant Group's healthcare model, Antifufu, aims to become a leading health service consultation platform, targeting 500 million registered users and over 100 million monthly active users by the end of 2026. The healthcare team has been elevated to a business group, aiming for revenue exceeding 100 billion [2][7] - Antifufu's technology is based on the "Bailing" general model, integrating Deepseek and Tongyi Qianwen technologies, utilizing proprietary medical data from various sources, including 700 million medical insurance users and 40,000 doctors from acquired platforms [2][8] - User retention strategies for Antifufu include health goal setting and integration with wearable devices, aiming for increased interaction frequency [2][9] - The commercialization strategy includes paid consultations, medication purchases, and health membership services, with B2B collaborations with insurance companies for disease-specific insurance products [2][10] - Collaboration with Alibaba Health leverages a vast user base and medical data, enhancing competitive advantages in the healthcare sector [2][11] - The AI-powered "Famous Doctor Avatar" service is currently in a testing phase, with plans for monetization contingent on achieving high diagnostic accuracy [2][12]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical industry is significantly influenced by medical insurance payment policies, which have evolved through four stages: moderate growth, rapid expansion, initial cost control, and comprehensive management [1][4][5] - The medical device sector is expected to have a positive outlook in the coming years, with a focus on overseas patent protection, market access, and commercialization capabilities [1][6] - The innovation drug sector is seeing a normalization of overseas expansion, with strong demand for cross-border collaboration and manageable pharmaceutical tariff risks [1][10] Core Insights and Arguments - The investment outlook for the pharmaceutical industry in 2026 is divided into four parts: overall industry investment views, consumer healthcare and bioproducts, pharmaceutical and biotechnology, and medical devices and services [2] - The first three quarters of 2025 showed a mixed performance among pharmaceutical companies, with the innovative drug sector performing relatively well, while medical devices and retail showed improved growth rates [1][8] - The consensus on high-quality development indicates a slowdown across different terminals, with online channels performing better [1][9] Investment Opportunities and Risks - The integration and mergers within the industry are expected to create new cyclical opportunities, particularly for CXO companies with high overseas business ratios [1][12] - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is undergoing positive changes, with companies focusing on inventory reduction and improving terminal sales speed [1][15][16] - The blood products industry is facing challenges due to changes in supply-demand dynamics, but there are opportunities in expanding application scenarios due to aging populations and clinical awareness [1][17] Additional Important Insights - The vaccine industry is under pressure but presents investment opportunities in overseas expansion, new product development, and mergers [3][18] - The retail pharmaceutical sector is currently focused on inventory adjustments and diversification, with a potential for valuation improvement through multi-channel strategies [20] - The medical circulation industry is lagging due to regulatory pressures but shows resilience among leading companies [21] Future Trends and Developments - The internationalization of Chinese innovative drugs is characterized by a significant increase in licensing deals and global competitiveness [26][28] - The medical device sector is rebounding after a period of decline, with growth driven by innovation, overseas expansion, and mergers [35] - High-value consumables and IVD sectors are expected to see improvements as procurement policies optimize and domestic manufacturers grow [38][47] Conclusion - Overall, the medical device and service sectors are projected to have substantial growth potential, despite current challenges, with optimism for future investment opportunities [50]

Core Insights - The three major stock indices experienced a slight decline on November 12, with the pharmaceutical sector showing strength, particularly with stocks like Yaoyigou hitting the daily limit and Jianfa Zhixin rising over 10% [2] Industry Summary - The National Disease Control and Prevention Administration held a press conference on November 10 regarding the prevention and control of acute respiratory infectious diseases during the autumn and winter seasons. Monitoring data indicates that flu activity in China is currently on the rise, with the H3N2 subtype accounting for over 95% of cases [2] - The China Securities Journal reports that the trend of innovation going global is clear, with the pharmaceutical sector leading the way. The ongoing reform in drug review processes is yielding benefits, and the Chinese innovative drug industry has entered a 2.0 era, shifting from "import imitation" to "innovation output" [2] - The report highlights that the development of innovative drugs is supported by improved investment and financing data, indicating a new cycle for CXO and upstream sectors. The potential for medical devices and other categories to also expand internationally is promising [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong rebound in the innovative drug sector, with the Hang Seng Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovative Drug Selected 50 Index rising by 2.34% and the Tianhong Innovative Drug ETF (517380) increasing by 2.16% as of the report date [1] - The Tianhong Innovative Drug ETF has seen a net inflow of over 83 million yuan in the last 10 trading days, with 7 days of net inflow [1] - The ETF tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovative Drug Selected 50 Index, covering the entire industry chain from preclinical research to commercialization, including A-share and Hong Kong stock innovative drug and CXO leading enterprises [1] Group 2 - BeiGene reported a total revenue of 27.595 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 44.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.139 billion yuan [1] - In Q3 2025, BeiGene's revenue reached 10.077 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.1%, with a net profit of 689 million yuan [1] - The growth is primarily driven by sales of self-developed products such as Baiyueze® (Zebutinib capsules) and licensed products from Amgen, as well as Baizean® (Trelatuzumab injection) [1] Group 3 - The Chongqing Municipal Economic and Information Technology Commission announced 25 policy measures aimed at supporting the high-quality development of the innovative drug industry [2] - These measures are designed to address development bottlenecks in the innovative drug sector and accelerate the development and application of innovative drugs [2] - China’s innovative drug industry is transitioning to a 2.0 era, moving from "import imitation" to "innovation output," supported by domestic engineer advantages, rich clinical resources, and favorable policies [2] Group 4 - The current trend of "innovation + internationalization" in the innovative drug sector remains unchanged, with ongoing business development (BD) activities sustaining the sector's attractiveness [2] - The innovative drug sector is expected to enter a new cycle of investment and financing improvements, particularly for CXO and upstream companies [2]

Core Insights - The report from CICC highlights a clear trend of innovation going global in the biopharmaceutical sector, with a shift from "importing and imitating" to "innovating and exporting" in China's pharmaceutical industry [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The pharmaceutical review reform continues to yield benefits, supported by domestic engineering talent, abundant clinical resources, and favorable policies, marking the entry of China's innovative drug industry into its 2.0 era [1] - The internal demand, which has been weak, is gradually improving, and breakthroughs in commercial insurance are alleviating payment conflicts [1] - The medical anti-corruption campaign that began in 2023 is expected to transition into normalization in 2024, with a gradual easing of its impact on the industry by 2025 [1] Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - Policies aimed at reducing internal competition are reflected in the pharmaceutical procurement sector, where the price anchors for the first batch of generic drug procurements have loosened, moving away from a sole focus on low prices [1] - The exploration of a diversified payment system is ongoing, with increasing calls for commercial insurance [1] - The impact of policy shocks on regions is easing, and while internal demand remains weak in the short term, there are signs of improvement [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The "dumbbell strategy" for 2026 remains applicable, emphasizing a combination of technological advancement and traditional defensive measures [1] - There is optimism regarding the progressive attributes of medical technology, with notable developments in AI and healthcare alongside breakthroughs in innovative drugs and internationalization [1]

Group 1: Innovation and Internationalization - The trend of innovation going abroad is clear, with pharmaceuticals leading the way and medical devices also expected to follow suit. The reform in drug approval continues to yield benefits, supported by domestic engineering talent, abundant clinical resources, and favorable policies, allowing Chinese innovative drugs to transition from imitation to FIC/BIC innovation [2][4][5] - Chinese innovative drugs are entering the international stage, with the industry moving from "import imitation" to "innovation output." The total amount of license-out transactions for Chinese pharmaceutical companies reached $40.8 billion in the first half of 2025, a 96% year-on-year increase, indicating a growing international competitiveness [5][10] - The medical device sector is also accelerating its international expansion, with overseas revenue growth outpacing total revenue growth, as companies enhance their global sales networks and product offerings [10][12] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Insurance Developments - Domestic demand is gradually improving after a period of weakness, with the impact of medical anti-corruption measures expected to ease by 2025. The introduction of policies to combat "involution" is reflected in the loosening price anchors for the first batch of generic drug procurement [11][12] - The development of commercial insurance is seen as a key factor in alleviating payment conflicts within the healthcare system. The push for a multi-tiered medical insurance system is gaining momentum, with commercial insurance expected to play a crucial role in expanding the domestic market [12][13] - The establishment of a commercial insurance directory for innovative drugs in 2025 is anticipated to enhance the payment capabilities for innovative products, supporting the balance between basic insurance and innovation [13] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Market Outlook - The "dumbbell strategy" for 2026 emphasizes a dual focus on technological advancement and traditional defensive sectors. The rapid development of AI in healthcare is highlighted, with the potential for significant advancements in the industry [3][14] - Traditional pharmaceutical companies are expected to experience a new cycle of high-quality development driven by state-owned enterprise reforms and technological innovation, making them a stable investment option amidst various market pressures [14]

Core Insights - A-share listed companies are increasingly leveraging innovation to drive overseas expansion and achieve growth in global markets [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Performance - The optical module industry has shown remarkable performance, with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang reporting a revenue of 14.789 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37%, and a net profit of 3.995 billion yuan, up 69.4% [2] - New Yi Sheng's overseas revenue reached 98.6 billion yuan, accounting for 94.47% of total sales, driven by the demand for AI computing power [2] - Jinpan Technology reported a compound annual growth rate of 79.22% in the data center sector over the past three years, with a sales revenue of over 500 million yuan in the first half of the year, up 460.51% year-on-year [3] Group 2: Innovation and Globalization - Chinese companies are increasingly adopting innovative business models to enhance their global presence, with 43 new drugs approved in the innovative pharmaceutical sector, a 59% increase year-on-year [3][4] - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical achieved a revenue of 15.761 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 15.88% increase, with innovative drug sales contributing 60.66% of total revenue [4] - Anker Innovation reported significant growth in various regional markets, with North America and Europe seeing revenue increases of 23.20% and 66.96%, respectively [5] Group 3: Capital Market Movements - A growing number of A-share companies are seeking to list in Hong Kong to support their overseas strategies, with 28 companies disclosing IPO plans in August alone [6] - Companies like Shenghong Technology aim to use funds from their Hong Kong IPO to enhance R&D and expand overseas production bases [6] - The trend of A-share companies going public in Hong Kong is primarily driven by the need for international financing and to enhance brand recognition in global markets [6] Group 4: Analyst Perspectives - Analysts view overseas expansion as a strong indicator of performance, with expectations for continued impressive results in the second half of the year due to the ongoing demand for AI computing and the internationalization of innovative pharmaceuticals [7] - The shift of Chinese companies from technology followers to global innovation leaders is highlighted, emphasizing the construction of a self-controlled innovation ecosystem [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the innovation-driven overseas expansion is a significant factor in the revaluation of innovative drug value, with a total transaction amount of $60.8 billion in the first half of 2025, representing a 129% year-on-year increase, and the number of transactions reaching 144, up 67% year-on-year [1] - There is a rapid increase in the value recognition and transaction amounts for PD-1 bispecific antibodies by overseas multinational corporations (MNCs), with Chinese companies maintaining a leading edge in bispecific antibodies and antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) [1] - The focus on tri-antibody combinations has significantly increased, with CD3/CD38/BCMA tri-antibodies showing positive clinical data in hematological malignancies and solid tumors, presenting a strong challenge to PD-1 in first-line treatment for non-small cell lung cancer [1] Group 2 - GLP-1 class drugs are reshaping the market with over $50 billion in global sales revenue, and the transaction volume in the weight loss sector in the first half of 2025 has reached 1.5 times that of the entire year of 2024, with differentiated competitive strategies focusing on oral administration, muscle gain, and lower side effects [1] - Breakthroughs in the autoimmune field have been achieved, such as the international market development of TaiTasiP, leveraging clinical data advantages, while small molecule targets like TYK2 and IL-23 are becoming differentiated competitive directions [1] - The treatment of gout has entered the era of biological therapy, with the launch of Vusincumab significantly delaying recurrence time, indicating the gradual emergence of domestic new drugs in overseas markets [1]

Summary of the Pharmaceutical Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the pharmaceutical industry in China, specifically the performance and outlook of listed pharmaceutical companies in 2025 [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the overall revenue of domestic listed pharmaceutical companies decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders down by 8.7% and non-recurring net profit down by 10% [3][4]. - Despite the revenue and profit pressures, the industry shows signs of marginal improvement, indicating a potential recovery phase for profitability [4]. Sector Performance - The CXO (Contract Research Organization), medical services, pharmaceutical distribution, and retail sectors outperformed the industry average in revenue growth, with CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) revenue increasing by 13% year-on-year [1][5]. - The CXO sector also saw a notable increase in non-recurring net profit, up by 23% year-on-year, highlighting its strong performance [5]. Valuation Trends - The valuation premium of the pharmaceutical industry has been recovering since early 2025, reaching nearly 45% by June, which is considered to be at a historical mid-low level [7][8]. - Public funds have shown a renewed interest in the sector, suggesting a potential new allocation cycle [7][8]. Innovation and Global Expansion - The "innovation going global" trend is supported by policy backing, industry changes, and performance improvements. The number of Chinese innovative companies participating in overseas academic conferences has increased significantly [9]. - Key players like BeiGene and Hutchison China MediTech have improved cash flow and entered profitability cycles, further driving the trend of innovation going global [9]. Investment Strategies - The mid-term investment strategy for the pharmaceutical industry focuses on two main lines: innovation going global and domestic demand recovery. Key areas of interest include innovative drugs and their upstream supply chains, particularly in the CXO sector [2]. - Attention is also drawn to domestic sectors with lower tariff exposure and the gradual rollout of hospital equipment upgrades, particularly in electrophysiology and orthopedics [2]. Opportunities in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) - The TCM sector is highlighted for its innovative drug opportunities and brand OTC (over-the-counter) products. The decline in raw material prices is expected to alleviate inventory pressures and improve gross margins [14]. - Companies like Yiling Pharmaceutical are advancing multiple pipelines into clinical stages, which could support long-term growth [14]. Medical Device Market Insights - The medical device market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected investment increase of over 25% by 2027 compared to four years prior, driven by ongoing equipment upgrades and hospital recovery [18]. - High-value consumables are particularly recommended for investment due to their growth potential [17]. Home Healthcare Market - The home healthcare device market is gaining attention due to an aging population and increasing health awareness. Key products include blood glucose meters and respiratory devices, with significant growth expected in the coming years [19]. New Consumption Trends in Healthcare - The healthcare new consumption sector is advised to focus on retail market transformations, such as the evolution of pharmacy chains, which may improve long-term revenue expectations [20]. Additional Important Insights - The pharmaceutical industry has faced a challenging environment since mid-2020, but recent trends indicate a potential recovery phase [7]. - The funding landscape for innovative drug development has improved, reducing the likelihood of cash flow constraints in the near future [10]. - The "borrowing ship" model for overseas expansion allows Chinese companies to leverage foreign patents and rights, providing stable cash flow through upfront payments and milestone rewards [13].