公 司 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------|-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 白酒 | | | | | ＃ investSuggestion ＃ | ＃ investSuggestion | | ＃ dyCompany ＃ 口子窖 （ 603589 ） | | 增持 ( | Change 维持 ＃ | ） | 000009 ＃ title ＃ Q3 业绩短期承压，期待夯实省内基础 | | | | | ＃ cr ...

证券代码：603589 证券简称：口子窖 公告编号：2024-048 安徽口子酒业股份有限公司 关于股东进行股票质押式回购交易的公告 具体情况如下： 1 | 股东名称 | 是否为控 | 本次质押数 | 质押股份 | 是否 补充 | 质押起始日 | | 质押到期日 | | 质权人 | 占实际控制人 及一致行动人 | 占公司总 | 质押融资资 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 股股东 | 量（股） | 类型 | | | | | | | | 股本比例 | 金用途 | | | | | | 质押 | | | | | | 合计持股比例 | | | | 刘安省 | 是 | 2,706,400 | 无限售 | 否 | 2024 年 | 11 | 2025 年 11 | | 海通证券股 | 1.07% | 0.45% | 个人原因 | | | | | 流通股 | | 月 6 日 | | 月 6 | 日 | 份有限公司 | | | | 二、实际控制人及一致行动人的股份质押情况 重要内容提示： ...

[Table_StockInfo] 2024 年 11 月 01 日 证券研究报告•2024 年三季报点评 当前价：39.27 元 口 子 窖（603589）食品饮料 目标价：——元（6 个月） 收入有所承压，静待需求改善 [Table_Summary 事件：公司发布] 2024年三季报，前三季度实现收入 43.6亿元，同比-1.9%，归 母净利润 13.1亿元，同比-2.8%；其中单 Q3实现收入 12.0亿元，同比-22.0%， 归母净利润 3.6 亿元，同比-27.7%。 外部需求疲软，增长有所承压。1、24Q3 居民消费信心不足，中秋和国庆双节 期间，白酒商务和宴席消费同比均有所下滑，终端拿货积极性较差，行业需求 端显著承压，造成单 Q3 收入端出现下滑。2、分产品，单 Q3 高档白酒实现收 入 11.4亿，同比-22.7%，预计兼系列新品仍处在消费者培育和市场推广之中， 贡献增量相对有限，中档/低档白酒收入增速同比-55.3%/+26.5%。3、分区域， 24 单 Q3 省内收入 9.5 亿元，同比-22.1%，主要系外部消费环境低迷，徽酒竞 争较为激烈，叠加兼系列还处在培育期，省内增速阶段性承压； ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company experienced pressure on its Q3 performance, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 at 4.362 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.311 billion yuan, down 2.81% year-on-year [1][4]. - Q3 revenue was 1.195 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 22.04%, and net profit for the quarter was 362 million yuan, down 27.72% year-on-year, which was below market expectations [1][2]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, sales revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor was 4.112 billion, 49 million, and 91 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3.1%, -27.4%, and +44.5% [2]. - In Q3 alone, high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor sales were 1.139 billion, 130 million, and 210 million yuan, showing year-on-year changes of -22.7%, -55.3%, and +26.5% [2]. Regional Sales - Revenue from sales in Anhui province and outside the province for the first three quarters of 2024 was 3.555 billion and 696 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -1.65% and -8.14% respectively [2]. - In Q3, sales revenue in Anhui and outside the province was 952 million and 221 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of -22.1% and -25.6% [2]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 71.91%, a decrease of 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to pressure on high-end product sales and increased competition [3]. - The net profit margin for Q3 was 30.28%, down 2.38 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Cash receipts from sales in Q3 were 1.426 billion yuan, an increase of 1.78% year-on-year, indicating better cash flow performance compared to revenue [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been revised down to 1.62 billion and 1.68 billion yuan, representing reductions of 24% and 32% from previous estimates [4]. - The report projects an EPS of 2.70, 2.80, and 2.97 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with current stock price corresponding to P/E ratios of 15, 14, and 13 times [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 4.362 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.89%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.311 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.81% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company experienced a significant decline in revenue, with total revenue of 1.195 billion yuan, down 22.04% year-on-year, and a net profit of 362 million yuan, down 27.72% year-on-year [1]. - The high-end and mid-range liquor segments faced pressure, with revenue for high-end liquor in Q3 2024 down 22.70% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on strengthening its distribution channels, with direct sales channels showing growth while wholesale channels faced challenges [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's gross profit margin was 74.76%, and the net profit margin was 30.05%, showing stability compared to the previous year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the gross profit margin decreased to 71.91%, and the net profit margin was 30.28%, impacted by an increase in taxes and fees [1]. - The company expects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 1.756 billion, 1.889 billion, and 2.020 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 2.02%, 7.57%, and 6.94% [2][3]. Revenue Breakdown - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor was 4.112 billion, 49 million, and 91 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3.09%, -27.36%, and +44.47% [1]. - In Q3 2024, revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor was 1.139 billion, 13 million, and 21 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -22.70%, -55.30%, and +26.54% [1]. Channel Performance - The company reported a decline in wholesale revenue, with a year-on-year decrease of 23.80% in Q3 2024, while direct sales revenue increased by 19.70% [1]. - The number of distributors in the province increased by 2, while the number outside the province decreased by 1, indicating a dynamic adjustment of the distribution network [1]. Market Outlook - The company is projected to have a market capitalization of 23.3 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 13 times for 2024 [2][3]. - The report indicates a stable outlook for the company's profitability despite current challenges in the high-end liquor market [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue of 4.362 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.89% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.311 billion yuan, down 2.18% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.195 billion yuan, a significant drop of 22.04% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 27.72% to 362 million yuan [2]. - The introduction of the new product "Jian 8" has received positive feedback, and the company is actively expanding its market presence outside its home province [2]. - The company's gross margin decreased in Q3 2024 due to increased promotional efforts and discounts, with a gross margin of 71.91%, down 5.90 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The establishment of a marketing center has improved channel management, and the company is focusing on maintaining healthy channel development during the industry downturn [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 4.362 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.311 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.89% and 2.18% respectively [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.195 billion yuan, with a net profit of 362 million yuan, marking a year-on-year decrease of 22.04% and 27.72% respectively [2]. Product and Market Development - The new product "Jian 8" was launched in April 2024 and has been well-received, contributing to a revenue of 11.39 million yuan from high-end liquor in Q3 2024, despite a year-on-year decline of 22.70% [2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence outside its home province, with revenue from outside the province reaching 2.21 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decline of 25.59% [2]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 74.76%, while it dropped to 71.91% in Q3 2024, impacted by increased promotional activities [2]. - The company's net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 30.05%, with a slight increase to 30.28% in Q3 2024, despite the overall decline in profitability [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a rebound in profitability as market conditions improve, with projected net profits of 1.650 billion yuan, 1.735 billion yuan, and 1.851 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 14 for 2024, indicating a stable valuation in the context of expected earnings growth [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its potential for growth driven by channel adjustments and the new product line "Jian Series" [2][5][7] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 11.95 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.04%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 3.62 billion, down 27.72% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [2][7] - The decline in high-end liquor sales is attributed to the high base effect from the launch of the "Jian Series" last year [7] - The company's channel reforms are ongoing, with the "Jian Series" showing leading channel profitability and potential to drive future growth [2][7] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company's gross margin was 71.91%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.90 percentage points, mainly due to the high base effect from last year's "Jian Series" product launch [7] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 30.28%, down 2.38 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company's sales revenue in Q3 2024 was RMB 12.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.61%, with sales cash receipts of RMB 14.26 billion, up 1.78% year-on-year [7] Product and Regional Breakdown - In Q3 2024, high-end/mid-range/low-end liquor sales were RMB 11.39 billion, RMB 0.13 billion, and RMB 0.21 billion, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -22.70%, -55.30%, and +26.54% [7] - Regional sales in Q3 2024 were RMB 9.52 billion in the domestic market and RMB 2.21 billion in the international market, with year-on-year decreases of 22.09% and 25.59%, respectively [7] - The number of domestic and international distributors increased by 4 and 53, respectively, reaching 500 and 508 by the end of Q3 2024 [7] Future Projections - The report forecasts the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be RMB 57.21 billion, RMB 57.44 billion, and RMB 58.74 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -4.05%, +0.42%, and +2.26%, respectively [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 16.35 billion, RMB 16.45 billion, and RMB 16.88 billion for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -5.03%, +0.64%, and +2.58%, respectively [7] - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is estimated at 16X, 16X, and 15X, respectively [7] Industry Context - The company operates in the food and beverage industry, specifically in the liquor sector [5] - The report highlights the company's potential to benefit from the overall growth of the Anhui liquor market, with ongoing channel adjustments and the "Jian Series" expected to contribute to future growth [2][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in its performance, with a focus on new product launches and channel reforms. The introduction of the new product "Jian 8" fills a gap in the 200-300 RMB price range, which is one of the fastest-growing segments in the Anhui market. This product is expected to drive revenue growth [1][2] - The company reported a total revenue of 43.62 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 1.89% year-on-year, with a net profit of 13.11 billion RMB, down 2.81% year-on-year. The third quarter saw a significant decline in revenue and profit due to macroeconomic pressures and the impact of the Mid-Autumn Festival [2][3] - The company is undergoing positive changes in its operations, including capacity expansion and increased marketing investments. The focus on channel flatness and market penetration in Anhui is expected to strengthen its market position [5] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 11.95 billion RMB, down 22.04% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.62 billion RMB, down 27.72% year-on-year. The decline reflects the overall pressure on the liquor industry this year [2][3] Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin decreased by 5.90 percentage points to 71.91% in Q3 2024, primarily due to increased operating costs. The net profit margin also fell by 2.38 percentage points to 30.28% [3] - The company’s cash flow remains stable, with a year-on-year increase in sales cash receipts by 1.78% and a decrease in operating cash flow by 8.32% [3] Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 60.51 billion RMB, 69.77 billion RMB, and 80.15 billion RMB, respectively. The net profit forecasts are 17.52 billion RMB, 20.20 billion RMB, and 23.21 billion RMB for the same years. The expected EPS for these years are 2.92 RMB, 3.37 RMB, and 3.87 RMB, respectively [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][4][7] Core Views - The company is experiencing a challenging demand environment, leading to a proactive release of channel risks to secure long-term growth potential [3][5][7] - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts downward due to ongoing demand pressures, with expectations of modest growth in the coming years [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022: 5,135 million CNY - 2023: 5,962 million CNY - 2024E: 5,971 million CNY (0.2% YoY growth) - 2025E: 6,447 million CNY (8.0% YoY growth) - 2026E: 6,988 million CNY (8.4% YoY growth) [1][8] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022: 1,550 million CNY - 2023: 1,721 million CNY - 2024E: 1,713 million CNY (-0.5% YoY) - 2025E: 1,883 million CNY (9.9% YoY) - 2026E: 2,079 million CNY (10.4% YoY) [1][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022: 2.58 CNY - 2023: 2.87 CNY - 2024E: 2.86 CNY - 2025E: 3.14 CNY - 2026E: 3.46 CNY [1][8] - **Profitability Ratios**: - EBIT Margin: Expected to decline from 39.6% in 2022 to 37.5% in 2024E, then recover slightly to 38.7% by 2026E [1] - Return on Equity (ROE): Expected to decrease from 17.4% in 2022 to 16.3% in 2024E, with a slight recovery to 17.3% by 2026E [1] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: Expected to decrease from 16.6 in 2022 to 12.4 by 2026E [1][8] - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: Expected to decrease from 2.88 in 2022 to 2.14 by 2026E [1][8] - EV/EBITDA: Expected to decrease from 12.6 in 2022 to 9.8 by 2026E [1][8] Market Trends - The company is facing a significant decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 22.0% in revenue and 27.7% in net profit [3][5] - The company is actively adjusting its sales strategies and channel management to cope with the current market conditions, focusing on maintaining a healthy inventory and improving sales efficiency [6][7]

本公司于 2024 年 10 月 29 日收到黄绍刚先生办理股票质押展期的通知，具 体情况如下： 一、本次股份质押展期情况 重要内容提示 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 黄绍刚先生持有安徽口子酒业股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）股份 数量为 12,411,743 股，占公司总股本比例为 2.07%；本次质押展期 5,000,100 股 后，黄绍刚先生持有本公司股份累计质押数量为 5,000,100 股，占其持股数量比 例为 40.29%。 黄绍刚先生及其一致行动人持有本公司股份数量为 252,063,712 股，占本 公司总股本的 42.01%；本次质押展期 5,000,100 股后，黄绍刚先生及其一致行动 人持有本公司股份累计质押数量为 38,431,600 股，占其持股数量比例为 15.25%。 证券代码：603589 证券简称：口子窖 公告编号：2024-047 安徽口子酒业股份有限公司 关于股东股票质押展期的公告 黄绍刚先生于 2022 年 11 月 3 日将持有的本公司的股份 5,0 ...