Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 35.28 CNY and a target price not specified for the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company reported stable revenue growth in the first half of 2024, achieving 3.17 billion CNY in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 950 million CNY, up 11.9% year-on-year [2]. - The introduction of the "Jian 8" series has contributed to revenue growth, particularly in the Anhui market, which shows resilience in liquor consumption [2][3]. - The gross profit margin increased significantly by 4.5 percentage points to 75.0% in Q2 2024, while the net profit margin rose by 2.1 percentage points to 25.7% [3]. - The company is focusing on brand building and marketing reforms to enhance its market presence and capitalize on the growing demand for high-end liquor [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.4 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, and a net profit of 360 million CNY, up 15.1% [2]. - The high-end liquor segment generated 1.3 billion CNY in revenue, growing by 3.5% year-on-year, while mid-range and low-end segments grew by 4.0% and 16.6%, respectively [2]. - The company's cash flow faced temporary pressure, with cash receipts from sales decreasing by 4.4% year-on-year in Q2 2024 [3]. Market Strategy - The company is actively expanding its market presence in county and township areas, implementing differentiated assessment systems for sales personnel to incentivize high performance [3]. - The Anhui economy's vibrancy supports the company's marketing reforms, with expectations for the "Jian" series to leverage price increases in the liquor market [3]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 3.39 CNY, 3.92 CNY, and 4.38 CNY, respectively, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10, 9, and 8 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.166 billion yuan for H1 2024, an increase of 8.72% year-on-year, and a net profit of 949 million yuan, up 11.91% year-on-year [6]. - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in Anhui while also penetrating surrounding provinces, with high-end products accounting for over 97% of total revenue [6][7]. - Profitability is expected to improve, with projected revenues of 6.58 billion yuan, 7.30 billion yuan, and 8.10 billion yuan for 2024-2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10.4%, 10.9%, and 10.9% respectively [7]. Financial Data Summary - For Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.399 billion yuan, a 5.90% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 359 million yuan, up 15.15% year-on-year [6]. - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 increased by 4.52 percentage points to 75.04%, while the net profit margin rose by 2.06 percentage points to 25.69% [6]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 16.487 billion yuan by 2026, with a net profit of 2.422 billion yuan for the same year [9][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported stable revenue growth in H1 2024, achieving revenue of 3.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 950 million yuan, up 11.9% year-on-year [2] - The introduction of the "Jian 8" series has contributed to revenue growth, particularly in the Anhui market, which shows resilience in liquor consumption [2][3] - The company's gross margin improved significantly, rising 4.5 percentage points to 75.0% in Q2 2024, while net profit margin increased by 2.1 percentage points to 25.7% [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the active economy in Anhui and the ongoing upgrade in banquet and gift consumption, with a focus on marketing reforms [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, and a net profit of 360 million yuan, up 15.1% year-on-year [2] - The revenue breakdown shows high-end liquor revenue at 1.3 billion yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year, while mid-range and low-end liquor revenues grew by 4.0% and 16.6% respectively [2] - The company's cash flow faced temporary pressure, with cash receipts from sales at 1.39 billion yuan, down 4.4% year-on-year [3] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding the "Jian" series, aligning its pricing with competitors and enhancing brand influence through events and consumer engagement [3] - The company is strengthening its distribution channels, particularly in county and town markets, and implementing differentiated assessment systems for sales personnel [3] Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.39 yuan, 3.92 yuan, and 4.38 yuan respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 10x, 9x, and 8x [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit exceeded expectations, demonstrating strong operational resilience [5] - The market has underestimated the company's growth resilience under competitive conditions, with a current dividend yield of around 5% providing a high margin of safety at the current valuation [5] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 3.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 950 million yuan, up 11.9% year-on-year [5] - In Q2 2024, total operating revenue was 1.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 360 million yuan, up 15.2% year-on-year [5] - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 1.91 billion yuan, 2.08 billion yuan, and 2.28 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 10.9%, 8.9%, and 9.5% respectively [5] Revenue Breakdown - In Q2 2024, high-end liquor revenue was 1.3 billion yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year; mid-range liquor revenue was 13 million yuan, up 4%; and low-end liquor revenue was 27 million yuan, up 16.6% [6] Cash Flow and Margins - Cash flow performance was relatively weak, with a year-on-year decline of 16.3% in revenue plus contract liabilities in Q2 2024, primarily due to a high base from the previous year [7] - Gross margin improved by 4.52 percentage points to 75.04% in Q2 2024, mainly due to a reduction in promotional discounts [8] - The net profit margin increased by 2.06 percentage points to 25.69% in Q2 2024 [8] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 11.5, 10.5, and 9.6 times respectively [5] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain stable around 17.7% for 2024 [10]

[Table_Title] 省内基本盘稳固，Q2 业绩增 15% ——口子窖 2024 年中报点评 [Table_Summary] 事件 公司公告 2024 年中报。24H1，公司实现总营收 31.66 亿元，同比+8.72%， 归母净利 9.49 亿元，同比+11.91%。24Q2，公司实现总营收 13.99 亿元， 同比+5.90%，归母净利 3.59 亿元，同比+15.15%。 省内基本盘稳固，省外持续招商 1）二季度高、中、低档白酒收入均实现正增长。24H1，公司高档/中档/低 档 白 酒 收 入 分 别 为 29.73/0.36/0.70 亿 元 ， 同 比 分 别 +7.34%/- 7.14%/+50.89% 。 24Q2 ，公司高档 / 中 档 / 低 档 白 酒 收 入 分 别 为 13.04/0.13/0.27 亿元，同比分别+3.48%/+4.01%/+16.62%。 2）经销渠道为主，直销渠道较快增长。24H1，公司批发代理/直销（含团 购）渠道分别实现收入 29.88/0.92 亿元，同比分别+6.70%/+66.43%。24Q2， 公司批发代理/直销（含团购）渠道分别实现收入 13. ...

稳步推进兼系列铺货，业绩符合预期 买入 （维持） 核心观点 ⚫ 公司发布 2024 年半年报，上半年实现营业收入 31.7 亿元，同比+8.7%；实现归母 净利润 9.5 亿元，同比+11.9%。单二季度来看，公司实现营业收入 14.0 亿元 （+5.9%），实现归母净利润 3.6 亿元（+15.1%）。 ⚫ Q2 淡季增速环比放缓，预计兼 8 铺货稳步推进。高档产品在 24H1 实现收入 29.7 亿（yoy+7.3%），预计大单品口子 5/10 年稳步增长，预计兼 8 逐步在淮北、合肥 等业务单元进行铺货，带来销售增量；高档产品在 24Q2 实现收入 13.0 亿 （yoy+3.5%），淡季增速环比放缓，预计兼系列铺货为核心工作之一。分地区， 24H1 省内实现收入 26.0 亿（yoy+8.8%），省外实现收入 4.8 亿（yoy+3.1%），省 内增势更强。24H1 末，公司省内、省外经销商数量为 499、498 家，较 24Q1 末分 别增加 3、32 家。24H1 末，公司合同负债为 3.2 亿，同比下滑 56%，环比 Q1 末下 滑 16%，24Q2 营收+Δ合同负债为 12.9 亿（yoy-1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][5][7] Core Views - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue growth of 5.9% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 15.1%. For the first half of 2024, total revenue reached 3.166 billion yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 949 million yuan, up 11.9% year-on-year [1][4] - The company is focusing on product strategy adjustments, with both new and existing products being promoted simultaneously. Despite a slowdown in demand and upgrading speed in Anhui province, there are signs of marginal improvement [5][6] - The company aims for a full-year revenue target of 7.035 billion yuan, representing an 18% year-on-year increase. The revenue forecast for 2024-2025 is 6.66 billion yuan and 7.29 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.7% and 9.5%, respectively [5][9] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2024, the company's liquor revenue grew by 3.72% year-on-year, with high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor revenues increasing by 3.48%, 4.01%, and 16.62%, respectively. The company is focusing on the domestic market, particularly in southern Anhui, where growth is faster [1][4] - The gross profit margin in Q2 2024 improved by 4.52 percentage points year-on-year, recovering to a normal level of 75.0%. The sales expense ratio increased by 3.9 percentage points, while the tax and additional rates decreased by 2.55 percentage points [1][4] - The company's operating cash flow in Q2 2024 was 108 million yuan, down 58.6% year-on-year, indicating pressure on cash flow due to weak domestic demand [1][4]

[Table_Date] 2024 年 08 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 符合市场预期，延续稳定增长 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------|--------------------------------|------------| | | | | | | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： 增持 | | 股票代码： | 603589 | | 上次评级： 增持 | | 52 周最高价 / 最低价（元)： | 61.23/34.1 | | | | 目标价格（元）： 总市值(亿元 ) | 205.20 | | 最新收盘价（元）： | 34.2 | 自由流通市值 (亿元) | 205.20 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万 ) | 596.87 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司发布 24 年中报，24H1 实现收入 31.7 亿元，同比+8.7%；归母净利 9.5 亿元，同比+11.9%。24Q2 实现 收入 14.0 亿元，同比+5.9%；归母净利 3.6 亿元，同比+15.2%。 ...

| --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | 费投推动产品销售结构升级，盈利水平同比提升 | | | —口子窖（603589.SH）公司事件点评报告 | | 买入(维持) | 事件 | | 分析师：孙山山 | 2024 年 08 月 28 日，口子窖发布 2024 年中期业绩报告。 | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：廖望州 liaowz@cfsc.com.cn | 投资要点 | | 基本数据 | ▌ 毛利率提升明显，盈利水平同比改善 | | 当前股价（元） | 2024 年中期实现营收 31.66 亿元（同增 8.72%），归母净利 | | 总市值（亿元） | 润 9 ...

口子窖（603589）2024 年中报点评 推荐（维持） 收入环比降速，兼 8 贡献增量 目标价：40 元 事项： 公司发布 2024 年中报，24H1 实现营收 31.7 亿元，同增 8.7%；归母净利 9.5 亿元，同增 11.9%；其中单 Q2 实现营收 14.0 亿元，同增 5.9%；归母净利 3.6 亿元，同增 15.1%，销售回款 13.9 亿元，同减 4.4%，经营现金流量净额 1.1 亿 元，同减 58.6%，合同负债 3.2 亿元，环比 Q1 末下降 0.6 亿元。 评论： 收入增速环比放缓，兼 8 贡献额外增量。单 Q2 收入同增 5.9%，其中酒类收 入同增 3.7%，环比降速。具体分产品看，窖系列老品自然动销，兼系列整体 增速放缓，兼 10、兼 20 去年铺货下基数整体较高，考虑价格定位高于老品， 动销周转相对较弱，新品兼 8 二季度上市后，消费者认可度较高，动销整体较 好，贡献额外增量，兼 5、兼 6 焕新扩量后消费者接受度进一步提升。分区域 看，单 Q2 省内收入同增 5.0%，改革持续深化，维持正常周转；省外收入同降 2.4%，主要系前期省外扩张致基数较高，叠加新品库存消化致收入 ...