Summary of the Conference Call for Morning Glory Co., Ltd. Company Overview - **Company**: Morning Glory Co., Ltd. (晨光股份) - **Industry**: Stationery and Office Supplies Key Points and Arguments Growth Strategy - Morning Glory is implementing an IP-driven and overseas expansion strategy, expecting a net profit of **1.69 billion** yuan in 2025, a **20%** year-on-year increase [2][5] - The target for IP-based stationery products has been raised from **7%-8%** to **15%-20%** to meet market demand and enhance retail business, aiming for double-digit growth [2][8] Market Potential - The IP stationery market is projected to reach approximately **5 billion** yuan in 2024, with a low penetration rate of **4%** but a growth rate exceeding **25%** [2][9] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the IP stationery market is expected to remain above **20%** over the next two to three years [2][9] Brand Performance - Morning Glory's sub-brand "Fun and Play" achieved over **200 million** yuan in revenue in 2024, a **150%** increase, with profits of **20 million** yuan, up **260%** [2][12] - The brand is testing entry into core Morning Glory stores, which could contribute an estimated **1 billion** yuan in revenue if it penetrates **50%** of the core stores [2][12] Overseas Expansion - The overseas distribution channel is rapidly growing, with a projected revenue of **600 million** yuan in 2024, a **50%** increase, primarily in Southeast Asia [2][13] - By 2025, the overseas distribution system is expected to reach **900 million** yuan, also a **50%** increase [2][13] - Morning Glory is actively expanding its headquarters lifestyle stores in Southeast Asia [2][13] Recent Changes and Collaborations - Morning Glory has launched new products for the summer marketing season and formed a strategic partnership with Tencent Video to introduce top anime IPs [3] - The new product launch exceeded market expectations, indicating the company's commitment to transformation [3] Inventory and Market Dynamics - Channel inventory is at a historical low of approximately **1.1 billion** yuan, down **20%-30%** from previous highs [4][16] - The stationery industry is transitioning to an information-based supply phase, with expectations for recovery in terminal sales [18] Challenges and Adjustments - The "Miscellaneous Store" business faced losses in 2024 due to misalignment with target demographics, but plans to refocus on high-margin products in 2025 [4][19] - The impact of the "Double Reduction" policy has led to a **15%-20%** decrease in demand for stationery among higher-grade students [17] Competitive Landscape - Traditional local brands are being phased out, while emerging brands are rapidly gaining market share by integrating popular IP elements [10][11] - Japanese brands are losing competitive edge due to high pricing, while domestic products are improving in quality and cost-effectiveness [11] Future Directions - Morning Glory plans to expand its IP matrix, focusing on domestic and Japanese anime, and aims to enhance its product offerings through strategic partnerships [21][22] - The company is also exploring the introduction of new IPs to diversify its product range and appeal to consumer preferences [21][25] Conclusion - Morning Glory is poised for growth through strategic IP integration, overseas expansion, and a focus on retail, with a strong outlook for profitability and market share increase in the stationery industry [2][8][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5][3] Core Insights - The company is enhancing its brand through strategic partnerships with popular domestic IPs, particularly in collaboration with Tencent Video to launch new products based on popular Chinese animations [1][2] - The focus on consumer-centric strategies and continuous innovation in IP collaborations is expected to strengthen the company's market position and cultural confidence [2] - The financial forecasts indicate a steady growth in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with projected net profits of 1.56 billion, 1.73 billion, and 1.93 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][10] Financial Data Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 23.35 billion yuan in 2023 to 33.53 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.95% [3][10] - The company's net profit is expected to increase from 1.53 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.93 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 11.55% [3][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.66 yuan in 2023 to 2.10 yuan in 2027 [3][10] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 20.72 in 2023 to 16.39 in 2027, indicating potential value appreciation [3][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5] Core Insights - The company is enhancing its IP strategy by collaborating with Tencent Video to launch new products based on popular domestic animation IPs, reflecting a trend towards cultural confidence and national pride [1][2] - The partnership aims to create a unique cultural identity through the integration of domestic animation and stationery products, appealing to the younger generation [2] - The company is expected to see continued growth in revenue and net profit, with projected net profits of 1.56 billion, 1.73 billion, and 1.93 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 23.35 billion yuan in 2023, 24.23 billion yuan in 2024, and increasing to 33.53 billion yuan by 2027, with a growth rate of 16.78% in 2023 [3][10] - The company's net profit is projected to grow from 1.53 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.93 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 20.72 in 2023 to 16.39 in 2027 [3][10] - The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with an asset-liability ratio of 38.48% and a net asset value per share of 9.95 yuan [6]

Group 1 - The A-share IP economy concept sector experienced a significant afternoon rally, with companies such as Yue Media and Yuanlong Yatu previously hitting the daily limit up [1] - Chenguang Co. also reached the daily limit up in the afternoon trading session [1] - Other companies including Chuangyuan Co., Xinghui Entertainment, and Jinma Amusement followed suit with notable increases [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [20]. Core Insights - The company has announced a strategic partnership with Tencent Video to launch new products based on popular domestic animation IPs, enhancing product value through a combination of strong IP and functionality [3][4]. - The collaboration aims to tap into the growing demand for domestic cultural products among the youth, with a significant portion of the target demographic expressing interest in purchasing products that incorporate national elements [5]. - The company is expected to see steady growth in net profit, with projections of CNY 1.55 billion, CNY 1.74 billion, and CNY 1.96 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 11.3%, 11.9%, and 12.8% [6]. Company Strategy - The company is focusing on an IP-driven strategy, having previously collaborated with various domestic and international IPs, and aims to leverage this partnership to enhance its product offerings across multiple categories [5]. - The retail segment, particularly through its brand "Jiumu Zawush", is expected to see an increase in the proportion of IP-related products, with membership surpassing 10 million [5]. - The company is actively engaging with new consumer trends, particularly in the context of the back-to-school season, which is anticipated to drive sales of its new IP-based products [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are set at CNY 26.69 billion, CNY 29.82 billion, and CNY 33.21 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with growth rates of 10%, 12%, and 11% respectively [7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are CNY 1.69, CNY 1.89, and CNY 2.13, indicating a positive trend in profitability [7].

证券代码：603899 证券简称：晨光股份 公告编号：2025-020 上海晨光文具股份有限公司 关于部分回购股份注销实施暨股份变动的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 上海晨光文具股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第六届董事会第十次会 议及 2024 年年度股东大会审议通过《关于变更部分回购股份用途并注销的议案》， 同意公司将回购专用证券账户中 2022 年股份回购方案的回购股份用途进行变更， 由"用于股权激励或员工持股计划"变更为"用于注销并相应减少注册资本"。 本次拟对公司 2022 年股份回购方案所在回购专用证券账户中的 2,858,043 股回购股份进行注销。注销完成后，公司总股本将由 923,828,420 股 减少为 920,970,377 股，公司注册资本将由人民币 923,828,420 元减少为 920,970,377 元。 股份注销日：2025 年 6 月 5 日 公司于 2022 年 10 月 28 日召开了第五届董事会第十八次会议，审议通过了 《关于以集中竞价交易方式回 ...

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、高级管理人员离任情况 上海晨光文具股份有限公司 关于高级管理人员离任暨聘任高级管理人员的公告 证券代码：603899 证券简称：晨光股份 公告编号：2025-019 上海晨光文具股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）董事会于近日收到公司财务总监汤先保先生的书面辞职 报告，汤先保先生因个人原因申请辞去公司财务总监职务，辞职后不再担任公司任何职务。 根据《公司法》和《公司章程》相关规定，经公司总裁提名，并经公司董事会审计委员会、提名委员会 事前审议通过，公司于2025年5月30日召开第六届董事会第十二次会议，审议通过了《关于新聘一名高 级管理人员的议案》，同意聘任刘佳琦先生（简历附后）为公司财务总监，任期与公司第六届董事会任 期一致。 截至本公告日，刘佳琦先生未持有公司股份，与公司董事、监事和其他高级管理人员、实际控制人及持 股5%以上的股东不存在关联关系，未受过中国证券监督管理委员会及其他有关部门的处罚和证券交易 所的惩戒，不存在《公司法》《上海证券交易所股票上市规则》《上海证券交易 ...

上海晨光文具股份有限公司 关于高级管理人员离任暨聘任高级管理人员的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 上海晨光文具股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）董事会于近日收到公司财 务总监汤先保先生的书面辞职报告，汤先保先生因个人原因申请辞去公司财务总 监职务，辞职后不再担任公司任何职务。 证券代码：603899 证券简称：晨光股份 公告编号：2025-019 | | | | | | | 原定任期 | | 离任 | 是否继续在上 | 是否存在未 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 姓名 | 离任职务 | | 离任时间 | | | 到期日 | | 原因 | 市公司及其控 | 履行完毕的 | | | | | | | | | | | 股子公司任职 | 公开承诺 | | 汤先保 | 财务总监 | 2025 | 年 5 月 | 30 日 | 2026 | 年 4 月 | 20 日 | 个人 原因 | 否 | 否 | （二）离 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][12]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable growth through its dual business model, actively engaging in the emerging "Gaozi Economy" driven by emotional consumption trends [3][4]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 267.68 billion yuan in 2025 to 331.21 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit expected to rise from 15.51 billion yuan to 19.01 billion yuan during the same period [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast (in million yuan): - 2023A: 23,351 (+16.78%) - 2024A: 24,228 (+3.76%) - 2025E: 26,768 (+10.48%) - 2026E: 29,834 (+11.45%) - 2027E: 33,121 (+11.02%) [2] - Net Profit Forecast (in million yuan): - 2023A: 1,527 (+19.05%) - 2024A: 1,396 (-8.58%) - 2025E: 1,551 (+11.14%) - 2026E: 1,729 (+11.49%) - 2027E: 1,901 (+9.91%) [2] - Earnings Per Share (in yuan): - 2023A: 1.66 - 2024A: 1.52 - 2025E: 1.68 - 2026E: 1.87 - 2027E: 2.06 [2] - Price-to-Earnings Ratio: - 2023A: 22.65 - 2024A: 19.95 - 2025E: 16.50 - 2026E: 14.80 - 2027E: 13.46 [2] - Price-to-Book Ratio: - 2023A: 4.44 - 2024A: 3.14 - 2025E: 2.73 - 2026E: 2.57 - 2027E: 2.41 [2] - Return on Equity (%): - 2023A: 20.97% - 2024A: 16.64% - 2025E: 16.54% - 2026E: 17.34% - 2027E: 17.89% [2] - Dividend Yield (%): - 2023A: 2.89% - 2024A: 3.61% - 2025E: 3.98% - 2026E: 4.43% - 2027E: 4.87% [2] Business Development - The company is expanding its retail large store business and office direct sales business, which are driving continuous revenue growth [4][78]. - The retail large store business includes "Jiuwu Miscellaneous Society," which has reached 752 stores by the end of Q1 2025, focusing on creating immersive shopping experiences [4][78]. - The office direct sales business, operated by "Keli Pu," has seen its revenue grow from 227 million yuan in 2015 to 13.831 billion yuan in 2024, contributing significantly to the company's profits [4][91]. Market Trends - The "Gaozi Economy," centered around the consumption culture of secondary IP peripheral products, is expected to grow significantly, with the market size projected to reach 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 17.79% from 2017 [4][104]. - The user base for the secondary dimension is vast, with over 500 million users expected in 2024, providing a strong market for the Gaozi Economy [4][106].

Group 1: Core Insights - The external trade environment is highly uncertain, and traditional domestic consumption is relatively weak, making it difficult to show an overall upward trend [1] - The investment logic suggests a bottom-up approach to select leading companies with differentiated competitive advantages and strong earnings certainty [1] Group 2: New Consumption Sectors - The overall consumption is under pressure, but some sub-sectors show high growth potential; companies are adapting to channel changes and industry opportunities [2] - In the personal care sector, domestic brands are leveraging e-commerce and product upgrades to gain market share, with recommendations for companies like Baiya Co. and Haoyue Care [2] - The AI glasses sector is expected to see accelerated product launches by 2025, with Mingyue Lens recommended for its unique advantages [2] - The emotional consumption sector is gaining traction, with recommendations for companies like Chenguang Co. that are investing in IP resources [2] Group 3: Traditional Consumption Sectors - The home and paper industries face pressure from the overall consumption environment; investment points include the ability of quality stocks to leverage policy support and operational advantages [4] - In the home sector, the expansion of subsidy categories and amounts in 2025 presents opportunities for leading companies like Oppein and Sophia [4] - The paper industry is closely tied to economic cycles, with recommendations for Sun Paper due to its cost control capabilities and upcoming production [4] Group 4: Export Sector - Due to high uncertainty regarding tariffs, companies with established overseas production capabilities are at an advantage; some export sectors are highly dependent on U.S. and Vietnamese production [5] - Companies with lower exposure to U.S. exports are considered safer, while certain sub-sectors still show high growth potential due to rigid demand and changing consumption habits [5] - Recommended companies in the export sector include Jiayi Co., Gongchuang Turf, and Deou Technology [5]