传统业务有望边际改善，九木继续扩张可期； 预计2025 年营收同比增长4.8%，归母净利润同比持平； 维持盈利预测与买入评级，维持33.80 元的目标价，对应20 倍2026 年P/E。 传统业务有望边际改善，九木继续扩张可期：晨光在前期业绩会中提及，1）公司于产品端减量提质， 并提供了更多强功能、情绪价值类与IP 赋能类产品；渠道端与商场中的文具/文创/杂货集合店和精品书 店合作，打造精品大店标杆，并增加与行业头部大店的合作粘性、引领优质校边店。晨光9M25 书写工 具/学生文具/办公文具业务的营收降幅已有所收窄，毛利率也有所提升，4Q25 业绩有望继续改善。2） 科力普进一步开拓央国企、省级以及市级集采客户，9M25 营收同比增长6%，4Q25 有望延续其前期表 现。9M25 晨光生活馆同比新开130 余门店至870 家，推动营收同比增长7%，其中九木杂物社营收同比 增长9%。四季度九木继续扩张可期。 预计2025 年营收同比增长4.8%，归母净利润同比持平：1）在相对低基数下，我们预计4Q25 晨光营收 同比增长13.3%，归母净利润同比增长19.9%，由我们此预计2025 年全年晨光营收同比增长4.8 ...

首次覆盖方面，12月17日券商共给出了9次首次覆盖，其中上汽集团（600104）、蔚蓝锂芯（002245）均获得爱建 证券给予"买入"评级，九洲药业获得华创证券给予"推荐"评级，中科创达（300496）、珂玛科技（301611）获得 东北证券分别给予"买入""增持"评级。 | | | 9家最新被首次覆盖的公司 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 机构 | 最新评级 | 行业 | | 600104 | 上汽集团 | 爱建证券 | 买人 | 乘用车 | | 002245 | 劇監理心 | 爱建证券 | 买人 | 电池 | | 603456 | 九洲药业 | 华创证券 | 推荐 | 医疗服务 | | 300496 | 中科创达 | 东北证券 | 北 | IT服务 | | 301611 | 珂玛科技 | 乐 训练 | 増持 | 半导体 | | 688031 | 星环科技 | 东吴证券 | 深入 | 软件开发 | | 688630 | 芯碁微装 | 中原证券 | 买人 | 专用设备 | | 688627 | 精智达 | 东北证券 | 增持 | 通用 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the optimism surrounding new consumption opportunities driven by quality supply, indicating that the "new consumption upgrade" will extend beyond 2025, focusing on innovative and user-centric supply rather than just cost reduction [3][4] - The report highlights the shift from "internal competition" to "external expansion," noting that Chinese manufacturing capabilities are now positioned to explore global supply chain opportunities, particularly in personal care and home goods [4] - The integration of AI in consumer products is identified as a significant growth area, with AI-powered devices like smart glasses expected to gain traction in 2025 and beyond [5] - The report discusses the K-shaped recovery in purchasing power, suggesting that luxury and experiential consumption will remain resilient as consumers continue to seek status through their purchases [6] Group 1: New Consumption Trends - The essence of new consumption is a supply-driven upgrade, focusing on innovative products that meet previously unmet consumer needs, such as ergonomic furniture and outdoor sports equipment [3] - The report anticipates that the alignment of quality supply and demand will continue to evolve, with new categories emerging beyond those already recognized in the market [3] Group 2: Global Expansion of Quality Supply - Chinese manufacturers are expected to capitalize on their competitive advantages in efficiency and innovation to expand into international markets, particularly through e-commerce [4] - The report notes that the personal care supply chain in China is significantly stronger than in Western markets, presenting a threefold expansion opportunity for Chinese brands abroad [4] Group 3: AI and Consumer Products - AI applications are projected to enhance consumer products, with smart glasses expected to enter mass production and drive new market dynamics [5] - The report suggests that 3D printing will also play a crucial role in the future of AI-enabled consumer goods [5] Group 4: Luxury and Experiential Consumption - The report identifies a persistent demand for symbolic consumption, particularly in luxury goods, as consumers continue to compete for status [6] - The luxury market is shifting towards services and experiences, with brands like Hermes and private jet companies expected to benefit from this trend [6] Group 5: Market Dynamics and Company Performance - The report outlines the competitive landscape for companies in the IP-driven consumer goods sector, emphasizing the importance of a diversified IP portfolio and localized marketing strategies for success [52][58] - Companies like Pop Mart are highlighted for their successful global strategies and the ability to create emotional connections with consumers through their IP offerings [58]

格隆汇12月10日丨晨光股份(603899.SH)在互动平台表示，公司旗下九木杂物社有销售外采的疯狂动物 城各类周边衍生品。 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growth potential of overseas markets and selective domestic demand as key investment themes for 2026, highlighting the high certainty of performance growth driven by international expansion and the favorable valuation of core targets [2][4][8]. - The report identifies a divergence in performance among leading companies in the new consumption sector, with a focus on those capable of overseas production and distribution [8]. Industry Overview - The light industry manufacturing sector saw a growth of approximately 12% from January to November 2025, ranking 17th among 31 sub-sectors [12][18]. - Key drivers for the sector's performance included asset restructuring and the emergence of new consumption trends, particularly in segments like tiles, flooring, and home furnishings [12][18]. Sub-industry Investment Recommendations - **Packaging**: Companies like Yutong, Inke, and Baosteel are recommended for their strong overseas delivery capabilities and cost advantages [8]. - **Export**: Companies with robust overseas manufacturing and multi-market operations, such as Gongchuang Turf and Yongyi Co., are highlighted [8]. - **Paper**: The report suggests investing in leading firms like Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper, as the paper cycle is at a low point with price increases expected [8]. - **Pet Products**: The sector is anticipated to stabilize, with recommendations for brands transitioning to premium products, such as Yiyi Co. [8]. - **Trendy Toys**: Companies like Pop Mart are recommended due to their strong market position and expansion potential in overseas markets [8]. - **Tobacco**: The report is optimistic about the HNB industry and recommends companies like Smoore International [8]. - **Home Furnishings**: Despite ongoing pressures in the real estate sector, companies like Bull Group and Gujia Home are expected to find growth opportunities [8]. - **Personal Care**: The report sees potential in brands adapting to online strategies and new retail channels, recommending companies like Baiya Co. and Dengkang Oral [8]. Financial Performance Review - The packaging and printing sector showed strong recovery with double-digit growth, while the personal care sector experienced structural differentiation in performance [22][23]. - The report provides a detailed financial performance overview, indicating a recovery in revenue growth and profitability metrics across various segments [23][24]. Fund Holdings Analysis - The fund holding ratio for the light industry sector decreased to 2.08% in Q3 2025, with notable declines in the paper, packaging, and personal care segments [28][31]. - Leading companies in fund holdings include Pop Mart, Sun Paper, and Xiangxin Home, reflecting investor sentiment towards growth-oriented firms [31][33].

内容概要：庞大的学生群体构成了我国书写工具市场的刚性基本盘，而素质教育的深入推进让书法专用 笔、美术创作笔等细分品类获得了更广阔的成长空间，与此同时，职场人士对书写工具的需求正从单纯 的"好用"向"质感"与"个性"延伸，兼具设计感与功能性的产品逐渐成为办公场景的新选择，为中高端书 写工具市场注入持续动力，据统计，2024年我国书写工具销售额达247.32亿元，同比增长1.8%，其中， 钢笔占45.8%，书写辅助用品占22.9%，彩色笔占13.7%，记号笔与荧光笔占10.8%，铅笔占6.8%。 上市企业：晨光股份（603899）、齐心集团（002301）、广博股份（002103） 相关企业：得力集团有限公司、温州市爱好笔业有限公司、真彩文具股份有限公司、广东金万年文具有 限公司、广东宝克文具有限公司、青岛昌隆文具有限公司、上海英雄（集团）有限公司、广东乐普升文 具有限公司、中国第一铅笔有限公司、上海金皇冠金笔有限公司、上海白金制笔有限公司 关键词：书写工具行业发展历程、书写工具产业链图谱、书写工具销售额、书写工具竞争格局、书写工 具发展趋势 一、概述 书写工具是用于书写、绘画、标记的器具，核心功能是通过痕迹留存 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the quality inspection results of student supplies in Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, highlighting the importance of product safety and compliance with national standards [3][5][7]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The student supplies market is a significant segment of the stationery industry, encompassing various products such as art supplies, writing instruments, and notebooks [3]. - China is the largest producer of stationery globally, accounting for over 60% of the trade volume, making it a crucial sector in the light industry [4]. - The stationery industry in China has developed rapidly over the past 40 years, forming distinct industrial clusters, particularly in Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces [4]. Group 2: Quality Inspection Findings - A total of 100 batches were inspected, with 4 batches found to be non-compliant, resulting in a non-compliance rate of 4% [7]. - The non-compliance issues included problems with the inner core weight, page count, brightness, and adhesive properties of notebooks, as well as the presence of phthalate plasticizers in accessible plastic parts [7][12]. - Specific issues identified included: - Two batches failed to meet the required paper weight standards, which could lead to damage during use [8]. - One batch had fewer pages than the standard requirement, increasing consumer costs due to frequent replacements [9]. - Two batches exhibited excessive fluorescence brightness, potentially causing eye discomfort for students [10]. - One batch did not meet the adhesive quality standards, affecting writing performance [11]. - One batch exceeded the allowable limits for phthalate plasticizers, which could pose health risks [12]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework - The inspections were conducted based on several national standards, including GB21027-2020 and GB40070-2021, which outline safety and health requirements for student supplies [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the light industry manufacturing sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The global IP toy market is projected to reach 525.1 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 21.7%, and is expected to grow to 771.7 billion yuan by 2029 [3][12] - The Chinese IP toy market is anticipated to reach 75.6 billion yuan in 2024, growing at a year-on-year rate of 29.2%, and is expected to reach 167.5 billion yuan by 2029 [3][13] - Generation Z is becoming the main consumer group, accounting for over 70% of the market, driven by emotional attachment, social needs, and companionship attributes [3][18] - The core competitiveness of the trendy toy industry lies in IP, with the highest cumulative revenue IP, Pokémon, reaching 98.9 billion USD [3][29] - The industry is witnessing a diversification of competition, with domestic IP gradually rising, and the market is still in a rapid development phase [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Expansion and Consumer Demographics - The trendy toy market is expanding, with Generation Z becoming the primary consumer group [3][12] - The market structure is becoming more balanced, with static and movable dolls experiencing the fastest growth [3][13] 2. Value Transformation and Industry Trends - Leading IPs are enriching their cultural content through various media, creating a cross-media IP content ecosystem [3][4] - Companies are actively expanding their IP value transformation paths, achieving multi-category expansion and full ecosystem construction [3][4] 3. Full Industry Chain Coverage - The trend indicates that trendy toy companies are evolving from single-point breakthroughs to full industry chain layouts [3][4] - Companies like Disney and LEGO have achieved full chain layouts, while others are still working on their weaknesses [3][4] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with full industry chain layouts such as Pop Mart, and those transforming retail into IP like Miniso and Morning Glory [4]

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance and trading activity of Morning Glory Co., Ltd. indicate a mixed outlook, with slight revenue growth but a decline in net profit, alongside significant trading volumes in margin financing and securities lending [1][2][3]. Financing Activity - On November 20, Morning Glory's financing buy-in amounted to 8.71 million yuan, with a net buy of 1.89 million yuan after 6.82 million yuan in repayments [1] - The total margin financing balance reached 200 million yuan, representing 0.77% of the circulating market value, which is above the 50th percentile level over the past year [1] - The securities lending activity showed a repayment of 5,200 shares and a sell-off of 100 shares, with a remaining balance of 21,270 shares valued at approximately 603,270 yuan, exceeding the 90th percentile level over the past year [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Morning Glory reported a revenue of 17.33 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.25%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 7.18% to 948 million yuan [2] - Cumulatively, since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 4.70 billion yuan in dividends, with 2.12 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3] Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 40,000, with an average of 23,002 circulating shares per person, a decrease of 2.19% from the previous period [2] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Invesco Great Wall New Growth Mixed Fund holds 31.50 million shares, remaining unchanged, while Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited reduced its holdings by 1.13 million shares to 27.67 million shares [3]

Market Overview - The entertainment products sector experienced a decline of 0.61% on November 19, with Qunxing Toys leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3946.74, up 0.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13080.09, unchanged [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the entertainment products sector showed varied performance, with Qixin Group rising by 9.96% to a closing price of 8.17 [1] - Other notable performers included Chenguang Co. with a 0.99% increase and Yuanfei Pet with a 0.83% increase [1] - Conversely, stocks like Gaole Co. and Shifeng Culture saw declines of 0.42% and 0.60%, respectively [1] Trading Volume and Value - Qixin Group had a trading volume of 360,100 shares, resulting in a transaction value of approximately 294 million [1] - The overall trading volume and transaction values for other stocks in the sector varied, with Jinling Sports recording a transaction value of 314 million [1] Capital Flow - The entertainment products sector saw a net inflow of 42.68 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 72.60 million [2] - The sector's capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment among different investor types, with institutional investors showing confidence [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Qixin Group attracted a significant net inflow of 94.99 million from institutional investors, while retail investors showed a net outflow of 40.27 million [3] - Jinling Sports also saw a net inflow of 39.42 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 60.51 million from retail investors [3] - Other stocks like Shifeng Culture and Gaole Co. had varying levels of net inflow and outflow, reflecting diverse investor sentiment [3]