轻工制造 行 业 及 产 业 2025 年 07 月 20 日 Q2 出口板块个股业绩分化；内需 整体仍存盈利压力，两轮车、黄金 珠宝表现较好 看好 ——轻工造纸行业 2025 年中报业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 黄莎 A0230522010002 huangsha@swsresearch.com 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 pangyy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张海涛 A0230524080003 zhanght@swsresearch.com 张文静 A0230524120005 zhangwj@swsresearch.com 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 联系人 魏雨辰 (8621)23297818× weiyc@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 - ⚫ 1）出口：25Q2 业绩存在分化，抗风险突出个股业绩增长稳健。25Q2 ...

7月15日，泡泡玛特（HK 09992）发布盈利预告。该公司预计，今年前6个月的收入较去年同期增长不低于200%，预期溢利同比增长不低于350%。根据公告 数据测算，泡泡玛特今年上半年营收至少达到137亿元，而2024年其全年营收为130.4亿元。这也意味着，泡泡玛特今年上半年的业绩将超越去年全年表现。 炙手可热的泡泡玛特也让"谷子经济"（二次元文化周边经济）概念股备受关注。Wind数据显示，A股"谷子经济"概念股共有38家企业，其中22家发布了2024 年度 ESG（环境、社会和公司治理）相关报告（以下简称"报告"），披露率为58%。其中，中文在线（SZ 300364）报告只有12页。同时，每日经济新闻与 中央财经大学绿色金融国际研究院（以下简称"中财大绿金院"）合作开发的"ESG行动派"数据平台显示，相关概念股仅有2家ESG评级为A。 中财大绿金院ESG中心联合主任包婕在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时表示，"谷子经济"概念股由于所属行业属性通常与环境议题的关联性较小，不属于 高碳排行业，更多聚焦在社会维度，因此容易缺乏对环境、可持续治理议题的关注。 仅有两家ESG评级为A，中文在线报告薄至12页 Wind ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 新消费需求多点迸发，竞争格局重构进行时 轻工消费2025年夏季策略 证券分析师：屠亦婷 A0230512080003 黄莎 A0230522010002 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 研究支持：张海涛 A0230524080003 张文静 A0230524120005 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 2025.07.11 新消费需求多点迸发，竞争格局重构进行时 新消费 国内人口代际变化 Z世代消费主力军 技术驱动 产品从0到1验证 海外需求变化 供应链 全球化 机遇 国际客户供应链全 球化趋势确认 高股息 行业格局成熟 资本开支放缓 国货品牌崛起 情感、悦己需求 AI硬件 AI软件 电子烟（监管政策） 品类渗透率提升 保温杯、家居等 消费电子包装 包装 家居 国补以旧换新 国货个护：百亚股份、豪悦护理、登康口腔 IP潮玩：布鲁可、晨光股份、 广博股份、创源股份 黄金珠宝： 潮宏基 宠物用品：天元宠物、 朝云集团、依依股份、 源飞宠物 两轮车：雅迪控股、爱玛科 技、九号公司 AI床垫：慕 思股份、喜 临门 家居：顾家家居、公 牛集团 AI眼镜：康耐特光学、明月 镜片、英派斯 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the rise of emotional consumption in the IP derivative products sector, driven by the increasing willingness to pay for emotional value and the rapid spread of modern media [7][26][32] - The new tobacco trend is gaining momentum, with companies like Philip Morris International leading the transition towards a "smokeless future," indicating a global shift in the tobacco industry [8] - Innovations in supply and channel transformations are providing new opportunities for domestic brands in the personal care sector, with companies like Baiya and Dengkang leveraging differentiated products to enhance brand growth [9] Group 2: Industry Summaries - The home furnishing sector is expected to maintain a weak but stable state, with a focus on high-dividend investments in leading companies as supply gradually exits the market [10] - The paper industry is anticipated to see a gradual balance between supply and demand, with a potential recovery in the cycle as new supply pressures ease [11] - In the packaging industry, high-dividend stocks like Yutong Technology and Yongxin Co. are favored, with expectations of improved profitability in the metal packaging sector due to industry consolidation [12] Group 3: Electric Two-Wheelers and Exports - The electric two-wheeler market is projected to experience significant short-term growth, with companies like Yadi Holdings expected to see a net profit increase of over 55% in the first half of 2025 [13] - Despite uncertainties in tariff policies, there are opportunities for growth in the export sector, particularly for labor-intensive light industrial products that are unlikely to return to the U.S. market [14]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][38]. Core Insights - The company has a solid foundation in its traditional business, with a shift towards price-driven growth, particularly in high-end stationery products and IP collaborations, which effectively counterbalance the decline in the number of eligible users [4][24]. - The traditional stationery business is expected to maintain stable growth, driven by three main factors: the development of high-end cultural and creative products, continued penetration into overseas markets like Southeast Asia, and accelerated digital channel construction [24]. - The office direct sales business has been expanding, with stable net profit margins despite a downward trend in gross margins due to the nature of the sales model [5][28]. - The company is actively advancing its IP strategy, focusing on the retail terminal "Jiumu Miscellaneous Society," which targets Gen Z consumers and is expected to achieve significant revenue growth [6][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has over 30 years of experience in the stationery industry and is one of the largest manufacturers globally, with a strong brand recognition. Its core products include writing instruments, student stationery, and office supplies, covering a wide range of needs from basic education to daily office use [11]. 2. Core Business Development - The traditional core business has shifted from volume-driven growth to price-driven growth, with significant increases in average selling prices for writing tools and student stationery, despite declining sales volumes [16][21]. - The office direct sales segment has become the largest revenue source, with a projected revenue of 13.83 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 3.9% year-on-year growth [25]. 3. IP Strategy and Retail Expansion - The company has embraced IP business, with a focus on the "Jiumu Miscellaneous Society," which is expected to generate 1.406 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, marking a 13% increase [6][29]. - The membership system has surpassed ten million, and the proportion of IP products is increasing, indicating a successful integration of IP into the product strategy [6][29]. 4. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 27.408 billion yuan, 31.344 billion yuan, and 35.136 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 1.574 billion yuan, 1.805 billion yuan, and 2.026 billion yuan [7][10][38].

Core Points - As of June 27, 2025, Morning Glory Co., Ltd. (603899) closed at 28.63 yuan, down 4.34% from the previous week's 29.93 yuan [1] - The company's market capitalization is currently 26.367 billion yuan, ranking 1st in the cultural and entertainment supplies sector and 578th among all A-shares [1] Company Announcements - Morning Glory Co., Ltd. has completed the registration of changes in its business license, reducing its registered capital to 920,970,377 yuan [1] - The company repurchased 2,858,043 shares under its 2022 share repurchase plan, changing the intended use from "for equity incentives or employee stock ownership plans" to "for cancellation and corresponding reduction of registered capital" [1] - The registered capital was officially changed from 923,828,420 yuan to 920,970,377 yuan after the repurchase cancellation was completed on June 5, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the share reduction plans of major shareholders and directors of Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. due to personal funding needs, specifying the number of shares to be sold and the methods of sale [1][2][3]. Shareholder and Director Holdings - As of the announcement date, Shanghai Keping Investment Management LLP holds 14,662,558 shares, accounting for 1.59% of the total shares [1] - Shanghai Jiekui Investment Management LLP holds 14,493,900 shares, accounting for 1.57% of the total shares [1] - Director Chen Xueling holds 8,100,000 shares, accounting for 0.88% of the total shares [2] Reduction Plans - Keping Investment plans to reduce up to 4,790,658 shares, representing a maximum of 0.52% of total shares, through centralized bidding and block trading within three months starting from 15 trading days after the announcement [2][3] - Jiekui Investment plans to reduce up to 4,748,400 shares, also through centralized bidding and block trading, within the same timeframe [2][3] - Chen Xueling plans to reduce up to 2,025,000 shares, representing 0.22% of total shares, through similar methods [1][2] Reasons for Reduction - The primary reason for the share reductions is the personal funding needs of the shareholders [2][3] Shareholder Commitments - Keping and Jiekui Investments have committed not to require the company to repurchase their shares and will adhere to the minimum price conditions based on the initial public offering price [3][4] - Chen Xueling has made similar commitments regarding her shareholdings [4] Compliance and Regulations - The reduction plans comply with relevant regulations and do not pose a risk of changing the company's control [5]

证券代码：603899 证券简称：晨光股份 公告编号：2025-022 上海晨光文具股份有限公司 股东及董事减持股份计划公告 本公司董事会、全体董事及相关股东保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 股东及董事持股的基本情况 截止本公告日，上海晨光文具股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）股东上海 科迎投资管理事务所（有限合伙）（以下简称"科迎投资"）持有公司股份 14,662,558 股，占公司股份总数的 1.59%；股东上海杰葵投资管理事务所（有限 合伙）（以下简称"杰葵投资"）持有公司股份 14,493,900 股，占公司股份总数 的 1.57%；股东及董事陈雪玲持有公司股份 8,100,000 股，占公司股份总数的 0.88%。 减持计划的主要内容 科迎投资因自身资金需求，拟自本公告披露之日起的 15 个交易日后 3 个月 内，通过集中竞价和大宗交易的方式减持公司无限售条件流通股不超过 4,790,658 股，即不超过总股本的 0.52%，减持价格按市场价格确定。 杰葵投资因自身资金需求，拟自本公告披露之日起的 15 个交易 ...

智通财经6月25日电，晨光股份(603899.SH)公告称，股东科迎投资、杰葵投资及董事陈雪玲因自身资金 需求，计划自公告披露之日起15个交易日后的3个月内，通过集中竞价和大宗交易方式减持公司股份。 其中，科迎投资拟减持不超过4,790,658股，杰葵投资拟减持不超过4,748,400股，陈雪玲拟减持不超过 2,025,000股，分别占公司总股本的0.52%、0.52%和0.22%。减持价格按市场价格确定。 晨光股份：股东及董事拟合计减持不超过1.26%公司股份 ...

晨光股份（603899）公告，股东上海科迎投资管理事务所因自身资金需求，计划自公告披露日起15个交 易日后3个月内，通过集中竞价和大宗交易方式减持不超过479.07万股，占公司总股本的0.52%。股东上 海杰葵投资管理事务所因自身资金需求，计划减持不超过474.84万股，占公司总股本的0.52%。董事陈 雪玲因自身资金需求，计划减持不超过202.5万股，占公司总股本的0.22%。减持价格将按市场价格确 定。 ...