2024 年 08 月 30 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 林昕宇 S0350522110005 linxy01@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 传统核心业务稳健增长，九木杂物社 增长曲线日益清晰 ——晨光股份（603899）2024 年中报业绩点评 事件: 最近一年走势 相对沪深 300 表现 2024/08/30 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|-------|--------|-------------| | | | | | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 晨光股份 | -5.9% | -26.3% | -28.2% | | 沪深 300 | -1.4% | -7.6% | -12.3% | | 市场数据 | | | 2024/08/30 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 26.79 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | | | 25.23-40.99 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 24,749.36 | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 24,749.36 | | ...

上海晨光文具股份有限公司 2024年8月投资者关系活动记录表 证券简称：晨光股份 证券代码：603899 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

公 司 研 究 晨光股份（603899.SH） 2024 年 08 月 29 日 2024H1 收入平稳增长，科力普股权激励提振信心 投资评级：买入（维持） 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 公司信息更新报告 | --- | --- | |-------------------------|-------------| | 日期 | 2024/8/29 | | 当前股价 ( 元 ) | 26.43 | | 一年最高最低 ( 元 ) | 40.99/25.23 | | 总市值 ( 亿元 ) | 244.17 | | 流通市值 ( 亿元 ) | 244.17 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 9.24 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 9.24 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 21.16 | 股价走势图 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 晨光股份 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《2024Q1 业绩符合预期，零售大店及 线上渠道增速靓眼—公司信息更新报 告》-2024.4.30 《2023 业绩符合预期， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Chenguang Stationery (603899 SH) [1][2] Core Views - Chenguang achieved steady growth across all business segments in H1 2024, with traditional core business growing 9% and new business growing 12% year-over-year [1] - The company is developing high-functionality, high-quality core products while also expanding into trendy cultural and creative products [1] - International markets, particularly Africa and Southeast Asia, are emerging as new growth drivers, with overseas revenue reaching 480 million yuan in H1 2024, up 14 8% year-over-year [1] - The company is focusing on premiumization through its Jiuzhi brand and optimizing its supply chain through digital transformation [1] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue reached 11 051 billion yuan, up 10 95% year-over-year, with net profit attributable to parent company of 633 million yuan, up 4 71% [1] - Q2 2024 revenue was 5 566 billion yuan, up 9 58% year-over-year, but net profit declined 6 59% to 253 million yuan due to increased bad debt provisions and equity incentive expenses [1] - Gross margin in Q2 2024 was 18 66%, down 0 70 percentage points year-over-year, with net margin at 4 76%, down 0 96 percentage points [1] Business Segments - Core product categories showed mixed performance in Q2 2024: writing instruments grew 13 0%, student stationery declined 0 3%, office supplies grew 4 7%, other products surged 27 9%, and Kelipu grew 11 2% [1] - Kelipu, the B2B office supply platform, achieved revenue of 3 17 billion yuan in Q2 2024, with a net profit margin of 2 16% [1] - Retail stores generated 357 million yuan in Q2 2024 revenue, up 19 0% year-over-year, with a net profit margin of 1 23% [1] Future Outlook - The report forecasts 2024-2026 revenue growth of 16 8%, 16 0%, and 18 8% respectively, with net profit growth of 19 1%, 11 9%, and 21 0% [2] - Expected 2024-2026 EPS are 1 65, 1 85, and 2 24 yuan respectively, with P/E ratios of 14x, 12x, and 10x [2] - The company is expected to maintain stable gross margins around 18 8%-19 1% and net margins around 6 3%-6 5% from 2024-2026 [5]

晨光股份（603899.SH）/轻工 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 8 月 28 日 [Table_Industry] | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------|--- ...

公司代码：603899 公司简称：晨光股份 2024 年半年度报告 上海晨光文具股份有限公司 2024 年半年度报告 1 / 168 2024 年半年度报告 重要提示 一、 本公司董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证半年度报告内容的真实性、准确性、 完整性，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 二、 公司全体董事出席董事会会议。 三、 本半年度报告未经审计。 四、 公司负责人陈湖文、主管会计工作负责人汤先保及会计机构负责人（会计主管人员）翟昱声 明：保证半年度报告中财务报告的真实、准确、完整。 五、 董事会决议通过的本报告期利润分配预案或公积金转增股本预案 无 六、 前瞻性陈述的风险声明 √适用 □不适用 本报告中所涉及的未来计划、发展战略等前瞻性陈述不构成公司对投资者的实质承诺，请投 资者注意投资风险。 七、 是否存在被控股股东及其他关联方非经营性占用资金情况 否 八、 是否存在违反规定决策程序对外提供担保的情况 否 九、 是否存在半数以上董事无法保证公司所披露半年度报告的真实性、准确性和完整性 否 十、 重大风险提示 公司已在本报告中详细阐述公司在生产经营过程中可能面 ...

华福证券 晨光股份（603899.SH） 精耕细作，砥砺稳进 投资要点： 传统核心渠道与产品精进，聚焦产品力和零售服务能力。 公司传统核心业务持续保持行业龙头地位，1Q24 传统核心收入同比 +11.7%、营收占比 39.5%，其中晨光科技同比+33%、晨光科技占传统 核心比例为 11%。渠道端，据欧睿，目前行业渠道结构仍以线下为主， 商超、线下门店、电商占比分别约 30%、46%、23%。近年来，线下公 司聚焦重点终端、单店提质、有效单品上柜、数字化工具等举措挖掘增 量，调整新品的全年规划和上新节奏由 2 次到 4 次；线上红利积极拥抱， 直营+分销、多店铺+旗舰店、多平台运营推进。产品端，公司书写工具 市占率维持领先，聚焦经典产品挖潜，盘活终端销售；学生文具、办公 文具在剔除办公直销以外的营收占比总体呈提升趋势、23 年达 70%， 新品开发减量提质，提高单款上柜率和销售贡献，并推动爆款打造。反 映在经营数据层面，公司四类产品毛利率多年保持稳中有升，产品的价 值提升逻辑由早期的外观创新，逐步向聚焦使用痛点的功能创新升级。 科力普、零售大店渐入佳境，盈利潜力逐步释放。 新业务经过多年聚焦发展，营收占比已过半 ...

晨光股份 原文 20240707_ 2024年07月08日00:24 发言人 00:05 大家好，欢迎参加新浪宏源轻工晨光股份深度报告解读。目前所有参会均处于静音状态，下面 播报免责声明，播完毕后主持人可直接发言，谢谢。请参会人员务必注意，本次电话会交流内 容仅限参会人员内部参考，任何机构或个人不得以任何形式对电话会议任何内容进行泄露或外 发，请勿以任何方式索要、泄露、散布转发电话会议纪要。任何泄露电话会议纪要等信息的行 为均为侵权行为。申万宏源研究保留追究泄露转发者法律责任的权利。 发言人 00:46 各位投资人晚上好，我是申万宏源轻工分析师黄沙，然后欢迎大家来参加本场晨光股份的一个 深度报告的解读。晨光其实也是国内文具行业的龙投公司，然后这个也是大家比较熟悉的一个 白马的一个消费公司了。然后我们现在这个时间点，去出这个晨光的报告，其实也是因为公司 这个估值也是回到了一个历史底部的这个位置，那我们对公司中长期的增长还是继续看好的。 所以这篇跟踪的这个深度报告，主要回答市场对晨光未来增长，担忧的两个点。一个是市场对 未来学生人口数量的一个下滑的担心，另外一个也是担心行业竞争激烈之后，晨光的这个盈利 能力，可能 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [3] Core Views - The company is a leader in the domestic stationery industry with a "one body, two wings" business layout, driving steady growth [3] - The stationery industry has a smooth price increase logic and a vast global market space [3] - The company's traditional core retail operations are deepening, with product and channel reforms driving growth [3] - The company's new retail exploration through JiMu ZaWuShe has been successful, forming a performance support [3] - The enterprise digital procurement market has huge potential, with KeLiPu's market share continuing to rise [3] Business Overview - The company's revenue in 2023 was 23.351 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%, with a CAGR of 24.2% from 2017 to 2023 [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 was 1.527 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, with a CAGR of 15.8% from 2017 to 2023 [3] - The company's ROE has remained stable at over 20%, and is expected to rise steadily in the future [3] Industry Analysis - The domestic stationery market size in 2023 was 104.7 billion yuan, with significant room for growth compared to the Japanese market [3] - The global stationery market size is close to 200 billion USD, with Japanese companies like Pilot and Mitsubishi driving steady growth through globalization [3] - The domestic stationery industry is highly fragmented, with the company's market share at 7.5% in 2023, indicating room for further concentration [3] Traditional Core Business - The company's traditional core business has a strong retail operation capability, with product and channel reforms driving growth [3] - The company's product structure has been optimized, with the average product price continuously increasing since 2014 [3] - The company's channel strategy has shifted to focus on premium stores and increase online investment, with international expansion accelerating [3] JiMu ZaWuShe - JiMu ZaWuShe has successfully explored new retail, with 618 stores by the end of 2023 and a sales per square meter of 22,000 yuan, double that of 2018 [3] - JiMu ZaWuShe achieved profitability for the first time in 2023, and future franchise expansion is expected to accelerate, supporting revenue and profit growth [3] KeLiPu - The enterprise digital procurement market size in 2022 was 14.32 trillion yuan, with a CAGR of 14.0% from 2017 to 2022 [3] - KeLiPu's market share in office supplies and MRO is less than 5%, but the company's operational service capabilities are leading, with an ROE of over 25% [3] - KeLiPu is expected to maintain a high growth rate, with profitability improving as scale effects are realized [3] Financial Projections - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.784 billion yuan in 2024, 2.069 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.391 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.8%, 16.0%, and 15.6% respectively [3] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 16X in 2024, 14X in 2025, and 12X in 2026, with a target PE of 22X and a target market value of 39.2 billion yuan, representing a 36% upside from the current level [3] Valuation and Target - The company's valuation has fallen to the bottom of its historical range, with a target PE of 22X and a target market value of 39.2 billion yuan, representing a 36% upside from the current level [3]

Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) with a target price of 47.2 CNY, compared to the current price of 39.56 CNY [1] Core Views - Traditional business shows steady growth, with online channels performing exceptionally well [1] - Retail stores have turned profitable, with significant revenue growth in 2023 and 2024 Q1 [1] - Kelipu's revenue growth slowed slightly in 2024 Q1 but remains on a positive long-term trajectory [1] - The company maintains stable profitability with effective cost control [1] Financial Performance 2023 Annual Performance - Revenue: 23.35 billion CNY, YoY +16.8% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 1.53 billion CNY, YoY +19.1% [1] - Core traditional business revenue: 9.14 billion CNY, YoY +7.5% [1] - Retail stores revenue: 1.34 billion CNY, YoY +51.0% [1] - Kelipu revenue: 13.31 billion CNY, YoY +21% [1] 2024 Q1 Performance - Revenue: 5.49 billion CNY, YoY +12.4% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 380 million CNY, YoY +13.9% [1] - Core traditional business revenue: 2.31 billion CNY, YoY +13.1% [1] - Retail stores revenue: 370 million CNY, YoY +23.5% [1] - Kelipu revenue: 2.95 billion CNY, YoY +11.6% [1] Business Segments Traditional Business - Writing instruments revenue: 2.27 billion CNY, YoY +4.8% in 2023 [1] - Student stationery revenue: 3.47 billion CNY, YoY +8.6% in 2023 [1] - Office supplies revenue: 3.51 billion CNY, YoY +8.9% in 2023 [1] Retail Stores - Nine Wood杂物社 revenue: 1.24 billion CNY, YoY +52.6% in 2023 [1] - Number of retail stores: 659 by the end of 2023, increasing to 678 by the end of 2024 Q1 [1] Kelipu - Revenue growth slowed to 11.6% YoY in 2024 Q1, compared to 21% YoY in 2023 [1] Profitability and Cost Control - Gross margin: 18.9% in 2023, slightly down by 0.5 percentage points YoY [1] - Net profit margin: 6.5% in 2023, up by 0.1 percentage points YoY [1] - Sales/management/financial expense ratios: 6.6%/3.5%/-0.2% in 2023, showing effective cost control [1] Future Projections - Expected revenue for 2024-2026: 27.45/31.53/35.85 billion CNY [2] - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026: 1.80/2.16/2.52 billion CNY [2] - PE ratio for 2024-2026: 20/17/14X [2] Valuation - Current market capitalization: 36.66 billion CNY [4] - 12-month high/low price: 46.08/30.64 CNY [4]