Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The company is continuously optimizing its traditional core business layout, adjusting product structure, and enhancing channel efficiency. The retail large store business is steadily expanding, and the office direct sales business is deepening, which is expected to sustain growth in the future [7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.73, 1.95, and 2.19 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17X, 15X, and 14X [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024A: 24,228.25 million yuan - 2025E: 27,416.61 million yuan (growth of 13.16%) - 2026E: 30,666.37 million yuan (growth of 11.85%) - 2027E: 34,017.35 million yuan (growth of 10.93%) [7][9] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024A: 1,395.84 million yuan - 2025E: 1,599.00 million yuan (growth of 14.55%) - 2026E: 1,805.23 million yuan (growth of 12.90%) - 2027E: 2,024.20 million yuan (growth of 12.13%) [7][9] - **Gross Margin**: - 2024A: 18.90% - 2025E: 18.86% - 2026E: 18.67% - 2027E: 18.43% [7][9] - **Key Financial Ratios**: - Return on Equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 15.67% in 2024A to 18.40% in 2027E [9]. - The company's debt-to-equity ratio is expected to rise from 43.11% in 2024A to 45.23% in 2027E [9]. Market Data - The company's stock code is 603899.SH, with a closing price of 30.13 yuan and a market capitalization of 27.835 billion yuan as of March 26, 2025 [4].

事件：公司发布2024年年度报告。2024年，公司实现营收242.28亿元，同比+3.76%；归母净利润 13.96亿元，同比-8.58%；扣除股份支付后归母净利润14.46亿元，同比-2.81%。24Q4，公司实现营收 71.14亿元，同比-5.04% 归母净利润3.74亿元，同比-13.5%；扣非净利润3.06亿元，同比-23.92%。 毛利率同比略有改善，费用率提升致扣非净利率受损。 2024年，公司综合毛利率为18.9%，同比+0.04Pct。24Q4，单季毛利率为 16.78%，同比+1.15pct， 环比-3.68pct。 零售大店新业务稳健发展。九木杂物社线下门店数量稳步增加，门店在产品组合、精细化运营以及 消费者洞察及服务等方面继续提升。线上业务多渠道发展，天猫、拼多多、抖音、社区电商、即时零售 等新型渠道均有提升。产品方面，IP类（二次元、容子及周边衍生品）产品资源投入和销售占比均有提 升；晨光产品和自有品牌的占比提升。 报告期内，晨光生活馆（含九木杂物社）实现营业收入14.79亿元，同比增长 10%，其中，九木杂 物社实现营业收入14.06亿元，同比增长13%。截至报告期未，公司在全国拥有 ...

⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ | 市场数据 | 2025-3-26 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 603899.SH | | A 股收盘价(元) | 30.13 | | 上证指数 | 3,368.70 | | 总股本(万股) | 92,383 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 92,383 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 278.35 | -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2024-03 2024-04 2024-05 2024-06 2024-07 2024-08 2024-09 2024-10 2024-11 2024-12 2025-01 2025-02 晨光股份 沪深300 公司点评报告 · 轻工行业 国银河证券|CGS 金融客户方面,新入围华夏银行、泰康保险和阳光保险等项目,进一步扩大在 金融领域的优势。 MRO 工业品方面,对已合作项目做到持续深挖,在国家电投、三峡集团、中 国有色和电气装备等多个项目上拓宽新的业务边界。 主要财务指标预测 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 35.79, down from the previous forecast of 37.86 [2][12]. Core Insights - The company's performance is currently under pressure due to increased expenses, but the advancement of new retail business and trends in emotional consumption are expected to drive performance improvement [3][12]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast for 2025-2026, now estimating EPS of 1.63 and 1.80 respectively, down from previous estimates of 2.24 and 2.60 [12]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 24,228 million in 2024 to 31,427 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.8% [5]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover from 1,396 million in 2024 to 1,838 million in 2027, with a notable increase in net profit margin from 6.0% in 2024 to 6.2% in 2027 [5]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from 15.7% in 2024 to 17.1% in 2027 [5]. Market Performance - The stock has a 52-week price range of 25.28 to 39.86, with a current market capitalization of 26,985 million [6]. - The stock's performance over the last 12 months shows a relative decline of 28% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [10]. Business Operations - In Q4 2024, the company's traditional business, KeliPu, and new retail segments reported revenues of 20.8 million, 46.7 million, and 3.6 million respectively, with new retail showing a growth of 4% year-on-year [12]. - The company plans to maintain its expansion in the new retail sector, with the number of stores increasing to 741 by the end of 2024, up by 39 from the previous quarter [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the analysis suggests a focus on long-term growth and product innovation, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future performance [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 24.228 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.396 billion yuan, down 8.6% year-on-year [1]. - The traditional core business continues to face pressure, but the company is optimizing its product structure and exploring IP-enabled products to enhance its offerings [2]. - The company is committed to long-term strategies, focusing on product innovation, lean management, and international market expansion to maintain its core competitiveness [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 242.48 billion yuan, with a net profit of 13.96 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 12.34 billion yuan [1]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was reported at 18.9%, unchanged from the previous year, while the net profit margin decreased to 5.8% [5][6]. - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.613 billion yuan, 1.854 billion yuan, and 2.123 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.7X, 14.6X, and 12.7X [5][6]. Business Segments - The traditional core business (excluding lifestyle stores and科力普) generated approximately 89.18 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with a slight profit margin decline expected [2]. -科力普 achieved a revenue of 138.31 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 3.9% increase year-on-year, although net profit decreased by 19.7% [3]. - The retail segment, including晨光生活馆 and九木杂物社, reported a revenue of 14.79 billion yuan, with a 10.8% increase year-on-year [3]. Product Development and Strategy - The company is focusing on product innovation and optimizing its product structure to enhance competitiveness, particularly in the stationery and office supply sectors [2]. - There is a strong emphasis on developing IP products to attract younger consumers, with the潮玩 brand experiencing rapid growth [2][3]. - The company is also expanding its retail footprint, with a total of 779 retail stores by the end of 2024, an increase of 120 stores from the beginning of the year [3].

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 投资评级 [Table_StockAndRank] 晨光股份(603899) [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary]2024 年年报。2024 年实现收入 242.48 亿元（同比+3.8%）， 归母净利润 13.96 亿元（同比-8.6%），扣非归母净利润 12.34 亿元（同比 -11.8%）；单 Q4 实现收入 71.14 亿元（同比-5.0%），归母净利润 3.74 亿元 （同比-13.5%），扣非归母净利润 3.06 亿元（同比-23.9%）。传统核心产品 减量提质，优化产品结构，精品文创持续产品创新提供情绪价值；零售大店 延续扩张，提升品牌影响力和市场洞察；科力普积极拓展用户，数字化赋能 运营。虽然宏观消费需求不足，但是公司坚持长期主义，坚持产品创新、精 益管理和国际市场拓展，核心竞争力保持稳健。 传统核心线下延续压力，优化产品结构，IP 赋能文具。根据我们测算，2024 年公司传统核心业务（总收入-生活馆-科力普）实现收入约 89.18 亿元（同 比+2.4%），利润率预计小幅下滑；其中 Q4 收入 20.78 ...

华福证券 公 司 研 究 晨光股份（603899.SH） 全年稳健收官，文创龙头变革前行 投资要点： 公 事件：公司发布 2024 年报。全年实现营收 242.28 亿元同比+3.8%，归 母净利润 13.96 亿元同比-8.6%，扣除股份支付后归母净利润 14.7 亿元同比 -2.81%。单 Q4 实现营收 71 亿元同比-5%，归母净利润 3.7 亿元同比-13.5%。 全年拟分红比例为 65.61%。 司 财 报 点 评 传统核心强化内功，新业务稳步发展。分业务：①传统核心：全年营 收 93 亿元同比+2%，其中晨光科技 11.4 亿元同比+33%。公司坚持多渠道 发展，坚持从批发商向零售服务商转型赋能终端经营质量提升，开拓办公 及精品直供创造增量。②科力普：全年实现营收 138 亿元同比+3.9%，产品 端着力拓展营销礼品及 MRO 工业品供应链的开发，客户端存量客户深耕 与增量客户拓展并进，业绩保持稳健增长。③零售大店：实现营收 14.8 亿 元同比+10.8%，其中九木杂物社营收 14.06 亿元同比+13%，零售大店 779 家，九木杂物社 741 家，零售大店年内净开店 120 家。分产品：书 ...

证券研究报告 晨光股份 (603899 CH) 传统业务待恢复，线上/出海表现佳 | 华泰研究 | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 3 月 | 26 日│中国内地 | 消费轻工 | 晨光股份发布年报，2024 年实现营收 242.28 亿元（yoy+3.76%），归母净 利 13.96 亿元（yoy-8.58%），略低于我们此前预期（15.63 亿元），我们判 断主要系：1）C 端及 B 端行业需求有所放缓，带动传统核心业务及 B 端集 采业务增速下移（据中国文教体育用品协会，24 年全国文教办公用品制造 业营收同比-1.6%）；2）渠道建设/品牌推广等销售费用及股份支付等管理费 用增加所致。展望 25 年，公司计划加强产品创新与爆款打造，加强 IP 赋能， 聚焦渠道深耕，传统核心业务有望修复，同时持续发力零售大店，壮大科力 普业务，看好公司收入增长提速，维持"增持"评级。 传统核心业务有待复苏，线上/出海收入表现优秀 分业务看：1）我们测算 24年传统核心业务线下收入为 81.8亿元/同比-1.2%， 我们判断主要系终端需求偏弱影响，25 年公司计划重点聚焦产品力 ...

业绩简评 3 月 25 日公司发布 24 年度报告，24 全年实现营收 242.28 亿元， 同比+3.8%，归母净利润 13.96 亿元，同比-8.6%，扣除股份支付 后的归属于上市公司股东的净利润 14.46 亿元，同比-2.8%。其中 Q4 营收 74.9 亿元，同比-5.04%，归母净利润 3.74 亿元，同比 -13.5%。 经营分析 传统核心：终端动销表现短期承压，积极布局 IP&二次元文创。 传统核心业务 24 年营收 93.3 亿元（+2.1%），Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 同比 +11.7%/+5.7%/-1.9%/-3.7%。书写/学生/办公文具营收 24.3/34.7/35.7 亿元(同比+6.7%/+0.1%/+1.7%)，尽管终端需求偏 弱，但公司仍积极进行产品开发减量提质，提高单款上柜率和销 售贡献，自主孵化及与外部 IP 合作相结合，扶持渠道提升终端动 销。晨光科技延续快速成长，24 年营收 11.44 亿元（+33.5%）。毛 利率角度，24 年书写/学生/办公/其他产品毛利率同比+0.99/持平 /持平/-0.96 pct，后续关注新品产品力提升兑现。 科力普受招标节奏影响阶段性 ...

2024年度轻工制造行业分红排名 晨光股份2024年度拟派9.16亿元红包 3月25日晨光股份（603899）发布2024年度分配预案，拟10派10元(含税)，预计派现金额合计为9.16 亿元。派现额占净利润比例为65.61%，以该股2024年度成交均价计算，股息率为3.08%。这是公司上市 以来，累计第11次派现。 公司上市以来历次分配方案一览 | 日期 | 分配方案 | 派现金额合计(亿元) | 股息率(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2024.12.31 | 10派10元(含税) | 9.16 | 3.08 | | 2023.12.31 | 10派8元(含税) | 7.39 | 1.80 | | 2022.12.31 | 10派5元(含税) | 4.62 | 1.01 | | 2021.12.31 | 10派6元(含税) | 5.57 | 0.78 | | 2020.12.31 | 10派5元(含税) | 4.64 | 0.85 | | 2019.12.31 | 10派4元(含税) | 3.68 | 0.99 | | 2018.12.31 | 10派3元(含税) | 2 ...