证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 晨光股份(603899) 投资评级 上次评级 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱： jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 晨光股份：线下零售延续压力，积极 探索 IP 产品 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 盈利预测：我们预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 15.2、16.6、18.2 亿 元，对应 PE 为 18X、16X、15X。 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_Title] 晨光股份：25Q1 弱势平稳，积极调整货品结 构，中期稳健增长可期 风险因素：线下客流恢复不及预期，新品推出不及预期，科力普客户修复不 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 05 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the analysis suggests a positive outlook for future growth based on macroeconomic recovery and product innovation [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.245 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, and a net profit of 318 million yuan, down 16.2% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to high base effects from the previous year and weak macroeconomic demand [1]. - The traditional core business is under short-term pressure, but the product matrix is expected to revitalize through the development of popular products and collaboration with well-known IPs [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product structure and increasing the share of self-owned brands, particularly in the lifestyle segment, which has shown growth [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the traditional core business generated approximately 2.054 billion yuan in revenue, a decline of 5.2% year-on-year. The revenue breakdown by category includes writing tools (564 million yuan), student stationery (803 million yuan), and traditional office supplies (849 million yuan) [2]. - The gross margins for these categories were 43.8%, 35.6%, and 28.5%, respectively, with slight changes year-on-year [2]. - The company maintained a gross margin of 20.7% and a net profit margin of 6.3% in Q1 2025, with stable operating cash flow of 112 million yuan [4]. Business Segments - The KOLIPU segment reported a revenue of 2.79 billion yuan in Q1 2025, down 5.3% year-on-year, but profitability remained stable. The segment is expected to recover as downstream bidding normalizes [3]. - The lifestyle segment, including the Jiumu Lifestyle Store, achieved a revenue of 401 million yuan, an increase of 8.0% year-on-year, with the Jiumu store alone generating 388 million yuan, up 11.5% [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a return to steady growth in revenue and profit as the macroeconomic environment improves. Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.52 billion, 1.66 billion, and 1.82 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18X, 16X, and 15X [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a slight pressure in Q1 2025 due to external environmental disturbances, but there is an expectation for gradual improvement in subsequent quarters driven by IP introduction and product changes [6] - The company aims to enhance its online presence and strengthen its offline channels while actively promoting its own brand internationally [6] - The financial outlook remains positive with projected revenue growth and profitability improvements in the coming years [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was 5,245 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1 2025 was 318 million yuan, down 16.2% year-on-year [5] - The company expects total revenue to reach 27,525 million yuan in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 13.6% [5] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 1,604 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [5] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 20.7%, showing a slight increase of 0.49 percentage points year-on-year [6] Business Performance - The traditional core online business continued to show high growth, while the offline channels are being enhanced through focused strategies [6] - The company is actively expanding its retail presence, with revenue from large retail stores reaching 4.01 billion yuan in Q1 2025, an increase of 8% year-on-year [6] - The company is also focusing on product diversification and enhancing product appeal through collaborations with various IPs [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company is pursuing a dual strategy of enhancing its traditional core business while exploring new product categories and international markets [6] - The ongoing development of the "Nine Wood" retail brand is expected to attract younger consumers and increase market share [6] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with a cash dividend of 66% and a combined dividend and buyback ratio of 73% for 2024 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 5.245 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 318 million yuan, down 16% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 281 million yuan, a decline of 14% year-on-year [2][4][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of 5.245 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 318 million yuan, reflecting a 16% decrease year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 281 million yuan, down 14% year-on-year [2][4][9]. - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 20.65%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the improvement in gross margin from traditional core businesses [9]. Business Segments - Traditional core business (excluding M&G Technology) saw a revenue decline of 9% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with specific product categories like writing tools, student stationery, and office supplies experiencing slight declines in revenue [9]. - M&G Technology continued to grow rapidly, with a revenue increase of 25% year-on-year in Q1 2025, and the net loss is expected to narrow compared to the previous year [9]. - Retail stores reported a revenue growth of 8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with specific brands like Jiumu showing an 11% increase in revenue [9]. Future Outlook - The company expects to see continued growth in overseas business and improvements in profitability from retail stores through the introduction of IP-derived products [9]. - Forecasted net profits for the years 2025 to 2027 are 1.54 billion yuan, 1.70 billion yuan, and 1.85 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 18, 16, and 15 times [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the company's focus on product strength and omnichannel layout, with IP empowerment injecting new vitality into its operations [3][7]. - The company achieved a revenue of 5.245 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 318 million yuan, down 16.23% year-on-year [6][7]. - The report projects revenue growth for 2025-2027, estimating revenues of 27.504 billion yuan, 30.841 billion yuan, and 34.570 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.608 billion yuan, 1.822 billion yuan, and 2.062 billion yuan [8][9]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5.245 billion yuan, a decline of 4.39% year-on-year, and a net profit of 318 million yuan, down 16.23% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company's traditional core business is focusing on channel deepening, with a double-digit revenue growth in its technology segment, achieving 308 million yuan in revenue, up 24.57% year-on-year [7]. Retail Business Development - The retail business, including the Morningside Life Hall and Jiuwu Miscellaneous Society, generated 401 million yuan in revenue, an increase of 8.03% year-on-year, with Jiuwu Miscellaneous Society contributing 388 million yuan, up 11.37% year-on-year [7]. - As of Q1 2025, the company operates 792 retail stores nationwide, with 752 Jiuwu Miscellaneous Society stores and 40 Morningside Life Halls [7]. Profitability and Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin for Q1 2025 was 20.65%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.28%, a decrease of 1.08 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The report indicates a stable expense ratio of 13.39%, up 1.42 percentage points year-on-year, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing slight increases [7]. Future Projections - The company is expected to maintain a focus on product strength and omnichannel strategies, with projected revenues of 27.504 billion yuan in 2025, 30.841 billion yuan in 2026, and 34.570 billion yuan in 2027, alongside net profits of 1.608 billion yuan, 1.822 billion yuan, and 2.062 billion yuan respectively [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4][10] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a gradual recovery in its traditional core business and new business segments, leading to long-term stable growth [10] - Despite short-term performance pressures, the company has shown signs of improvement that are anticipated to be released in the future [10] Financial Summary - Total shares outstanding: 923.83 million [2] - Market price: ¥31.32 [2] - Market capitalization: ¥28,934.31 million [2] - Revenue forecast for 2023A: ¥23,351 million, with a growth rate of 17% [4] - Projected revenue for 2024A: ¥24,228 million, with a growth rate of 4% [4] - Projected net profit for 2025E: ¥1,693 million, with a growth rate of 21% [4] - Projected EPS for 2025E: ¥1.83 [4] Business Performance - The company reported a revenue of ¥5.645 billion in writing tools, showing a slight decline of 0.07% year-on-year [8] - The online business segment, particularly Morning Glory Technology, achieved a revenue of ¥3.08 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.57% [10] - The retail segment, including Jiuwu Miscellaneous Society, reported a revenue of ¥4.01 billion, with an increase of 8.03% year-on-year [9] Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin improved slightly to 20.65%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The net profit margin decreased to 6.28%, down 1.08 percentage points from the previous year [7] - The projected net asset return rate for 2025E is 15% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future investment returns [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.245 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 318 million yuan, down 16.23% year-on-year [5]. - The company is actively expanding into the "second dimension IP" sector, focusing on products that appeal to younger consumers, enhancing the emotional value of its offerings [7]. - The report projects revenue growth for 2025-2027 at 7.5%, 6.4%, and 5.5% respectively, with net profits expected to grow by 7.6%, 9.2%, and 8.5% in the same period [8]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's gross margin was 20.65%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.86 percentage points to 6.07% [6]. - The company’s revenue from various product lines showed mixed results, with writing tools and office supplies experiencing slight declines, while the "Morning Light Living Hall" and "Morning Light Technology" segments saw growth [5]. - The company expects revenues of 26.056 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 1.502 billion yuan, reflecting a recovery trend after a challenging 2024 [10].

Core Viewpoint - Morning Glory Co., Ltd. reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for the first quarter of 2025, marking the first such occurrence since 2021, with revenue at 5.245 billion yuan, down 4.39% year-on-year, and net profit at 318 million yuan, down 16.23% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Morning Glory achieved total revenue of 24.228 billion yuan, an increase of 3.76% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.396 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.58% year-on-year [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in revenue across major business segments, including writing instruments, student stationery, and office supplies, with respective revenues of 803 million yuan, 848 million yuan, and 2.790 billion yuan, each declining over 5% year-on-year [2] Business Segments - The company categorizes its operations into traditional core businesses and new businesses, with the former including writing tools, student stationery, and office supplies, while the latter encompasses office direct sales and retail stores [2] - The office direct sales business, which has been a revenue pillar, accounted for over 50% of total revenue, but its gross margin fell to 7.08% in the first quarter of 2025, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points year-on-year [2] New Business Developments - The retail store business, represented by Jiuwu Miscellaneous Store and Morning Glory Life Hall, is seen as a key area for brand and product upgrades, with 792 retail stores nationwide as of the end of the first quarter of 2025 [2] - Jiuwu Miscellaneous Store reported revenue of 388 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025, an increase of 11.37% year-on-year, but faced a net loss of 12.4428 million yuan in 2024 [3] Strategic Focus - Morning Glory's management indicated plans to enhance investment in IP (intellectual property) products and increase the proportion of proprietary brands to cater to changing consumer preferences, particularly among younger demographics [3] - The company aims to leverage its independent toy brand "Qizhi Haowan" to focus on IP incubation and brand collaboration, targeting the "two-dimensional IP" market [3]

证券代码：603899 证券简称：晨光股份 公告编号：2025-016 上海晨光文具股份有限公司 第六届董事会第十一次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、董事会会议召开情况 上海晨光文具股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第六届董事会第十一次会 议以通讯表决的方式召开，会议通知于2025年4月7日以电子邮件方式发出。本次 会议表决截止时间为4月28日中午12时，会议应参加表决的董事7名，实际参加表 决的董事7名。会议的召集、召开及表决程序符合《中华人民共和国公司法》和 《上海晨光文具股份有限公司章程》的有关规定，合法有效。 二、董事会会议审议情况 （一）审议通过《2025 年第一季度报告》 （二）审议通过《关于开展外汇衍生品交易业务的议案》 同意公司及子公司开展外汇衍生品交易业务，在期限内任一时点的外汇衍生 品余额不超过 7.5 亿元人民币（或其他等值外币）。在期限内任一时点占用的交 易保证金和权利金余额不超过 0.7 亿元人民币（或其他等值外币）。在上述额度 内，资金可以循环滚动使用。授权公司董事长 ...

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for Q1 2025 was CNY 5,244,822,850.50, a decrease of 4.39% compared to CNY 5,485,380,847.38 in the same period last year[4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 318,201,988.44, down 16.23% from CNY 379,859,509.37 year-on-year[4] - Total operating revenue for Q1 2025 was CNY 5,244,822,850.50, a decrease of 4.39% compared to CNY 5,485,380,847.38 in Q1 2024[25] - Net profit for Q1 2025 was CNY 329,498,024.63, a decline of 18.38% from CNY 403,976,905.47 in Q1 2024[26] - Total comprehensive income attributable to the parent company for Q1 2025 was approximately ¥327 million, down from ¥372 million in Q1 2024, a decrease of 12.09%[30] Cash Flow and Liquidity - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 64.37% to CNY 112,010,716.73, compared to CNY 68,147,079.31 in the previous year[4] - Cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2025, totaled ¥4,081,523,754.40, down from ¥4,962,217,302.12 at the end of 2024[18] - Cash inflow from investment activities in Q1 2025 was approximately ¥260 million, significantly lower than ¥702 million in Q1 2024, a decline of 62.96%[31] - Net cash outflow from financing activities for Q1 2025 was approximately ¥156 million, compared to a net outflow of ¥63 million in Q1 2024[32] - The company reported a decrease in cash flow from operating activities, with total cash outflow of approximately ¥6.54 billion in Q1 2025, down from ¥6.87 billion in Q1 2024[31] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were CNY 15,818,157,827.51, a decrease of 4.63% from CNY 16,586,785,179.43 at the end of the previous year[5] - Total liabilities decreased from CNY 7,151,092,318.63 to CNY 6,086,660,487.65[21] - Total equity increased from CNY 9,435,692,860.80 to CNY 9,731,497,339.86[22] - The company reported a decrease in accounts payable from CNY 5,006,486,563.20 to CNY 4,094,670,269.09[21] Shareholder Information - Total number of common shareholders at the end of the reporting period is 38,561[12] - The largest shareholder, Morning Glory Holdings, holds 536,000,000 shares, accounting for 58.02% of total shares[12] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from writing instruments reached ¥564,417,360.37, with a gross margin of 43.78%, showing a slight decrease of 0.07% compared to the same period last year[14] - Revenue from student stationery was ¥802,857,730.74, with a gross margin of 35.63%, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 5.99%[14] - Office stationery generated revenue of ¥849,227,021.57, with a gross margin of 28.48%, down 5.60% from the previous year[15] - The company reported a decrease in revenue from its subsidiary, Keli Pu, which saw a 5.32% decline to ¥278,990.36 million[15] Other Financial Metrics - The weighted average return on equity decreased by 1.22 percentage points to 3.52% from the previous year's 4.74%[4] - Research and development expenses for Q1 2025 were CNY 50,209,957.79, slightly up from CNY 48,295,232.76 in Q1 2024[25] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for Q1 2025 were both ¥0.3472, down from ¥0.4112 in Q1 2024, reflecting a decline of 15.6%[30] - The company received government subsidies amounting to CNY 41,716,009.53 during the reporting period, which positively impacted its financial performance[7] Accounts Receivable and Goodwill - The company reported a significant increase in accounts receivable by 106.46%, reaching CNY 35,976,787.65 compared to CNY 17,425,526.65 at the end of the previous year[10] - Goodwill increased by 65.91% to CNY 105,404,838.99 due to the difference between the purchase cost and the fair value of identifiable net assets acquired[10] - Accounts receivable increased to ¥3,990,890,840.73 from ¥3,860,635,417.76[18] Borrowings - Long-term borrowings surged by 433.33% to CNY 32,000,000.00 from CNY 6,000,000.00 at the end of the previous year[10] - The company received approximately ¥58.95 million in cash from borrowings in Q1 2025, an increase from ¥50 million in Q1 2024[31] Retail Operations - The company operates 792 retail stores nationwide, including 752 "Nine Wood" stores and 40 "Morning Glory" stores[16] - Morning Glory Technology achieved revenue of ¥30,758.12 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 24.57%[16]