公司报告 | 半年报点评 利润略超预期，全年高增可期 事件：2024H1 公司实现营业收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 78.73/17.31/17.07 亿元（同比+44.19%/+56.17%/+72.34%）。2024Q2 公司实 现营业收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 43.91/10.67/10.82 亿元 （同比+47.88%/+74.62%/+101.51%）。公司拟每10 股派发现金红利25 元（含 税），合计拟派发 10 亿现金红利（占 24H1 归母净利润 57.79%），同时每 10 股转增 3 股，合计转增股本 1.2 亿股。 东鹏饮料（605499） 证券研究报告 2024 年 09 月 02 日 投资评级 行业 食品饮料/饮料乳品 6 个月评级 买入（维持评级） 当前价格 227.94 元 目标价格 元 量增驱动高增，补水啦增长明显。24H1 东鹏饮料/东鹏补水啦/其他饮料营 收 68.55/4.76/5.31 亿元（同比+33.49%/+281.12%/+172.16%）。拆分量价看： 1）销量分别为 160.48/20.95/23.85 万吨（同比+32.96%/+ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Dongpeng Beverage [5][11] Core Views - Dongpeng Beverage has shown strong growth in its 2024 H1 performance, with revenue reaching 7.873 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.19%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.731 billion yuan, up 56.17% [2] - The company is experiencing a dual growth engine through regional expansion and new product launches, particularly with the "Dongpeng Water" product showing remarkable growth [3] - The company's gross margin improved due to a decrease in raw material costs, leading to a net profit margin increase of 3.72 percentage points to 24.29% [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects net profits of 3.006 billion yuan, 3.995 billion yuan, and 5.004 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 32, 24, and 19 [4][8] - Revenue is projected to grow from 11.263 billion yuan in 2023 to 25.296 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 26% [4][8] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 5.10 yuan in 2023 to 12.51 yuan in 2026 [4][8] Product and Regional Performance - The core product, Dongpeng Special Drink, generated 6.855 billion yuan in revenue in 2024 H1, a 33.49% increase year-on-year, while the new product "Dongpeng Water" achieved revenue of 476 million yuan, up 281.12% [3] - Regional performance showed that the national area revenue reached 4.698 billion yuan, a 57.02% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in regions such as Central China and Southwest China [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 260.28 RMB, compared to the last closing price of 227.94 RMB [1][3]. Core Views - The company has shown strong national expansion momentum, with Q2 performance exceeding expectations. In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.873 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 44.19%, and a net profit of 1.731 billion RMB, up 56.17% year-on-year [2][3]. - Q2 revenue reached 4.391 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47.88%, with net profit increasing by 74.62% to 1.067 billion RMB [2][3]. - The company is accelerating its national expansion, with over 3.6 million terminal points established across the country, and the introduction of new products is contributing significantly to growth [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 7.873 billion RMB, a 44.19% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.731 billion RMB, a 56.17% increase year-on-year. Q2 alone saw revenue of 4.391 billion RMB, up 47.88% year-on-year, and net profit of 1.067 billion RMB, up 74.62% year-on-year [2][3]. - The gross margin for H1 2024 improved by 1.5 percentage points to 44.6%, with Q2 gross margin increasing by 3.3 percentage points to 46.05% due to lower raw material prices and enhanced scale effects [2][3]. Product and Market Expansion - The company’s flagship energy drink, Dongpeng Special Drink, generated revenue of 3.75 billion RMB in Q2, a 36.4% year-on-year increase, while other beverages saw a remarkable 193.8% increase in revenue [2][3]. - The new product "Brew Water" has shown rapid growth, with revenue of 480 million RMB year-to-date, a staggering 381.1% increase year-on-year, and is expected to surpass 1 billion RMB for the full year [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its high growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 15.221 billion RMB, 19.270 billion RMB, and 23.953 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 35.15%, 26.60%, and 24.31% [4][6]. - The report anticipates that the company will maintain its momentum through further expansion into provincial markets and the introduction of new product lines, including sugar-free tea and coconut juice, enhancing its product matrix [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.87 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 44.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.73 billion yuan, up 56.2% year-on-year, slightly exceeding the upper limit of the earnings forecast [2] - In Q2 2024, revenue reached 4.39 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47.9%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.07 billion yuan, a 74.6% increase year-on-year [2] - The company is expected to achieve high growth in H2 2024, driven by strong sales momentum and sufficient orders, with a historical high level of contract liabilities at 2.5 billion yuan as of June [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024E, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 15.38 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 36.59% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.92 billion yuan in 2024E, reflecting a growth rate of 43.16% [4] - The report forecasts a diluted EPS of 7.30 yuan for 2024E, with a PE ratio of 31.22 [4] - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 was 46.1%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from a decrease in raw material prices [2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 7.873 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 44.19%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.731 billion yuan, up 56.17% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on deepening its market presence in Guangdong while accelerating its national expansion, with Q2 2024 revenue reaching 4.391 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.89% [2]. - The product line expansion is showing significant results, with "Dongpeng Water" revenue growing by 281.13% year-on-year to 476 million yuan in H1 2024 [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company’s revenue from the Guangdong region increased by 14.99% to 1.193 billion yuan, while revenue from the Guangxi region rose by 19.17% to 276 million yuan [2]. - The company’s gross profit margin improved by 3.31 percentage points to 46.05% in Q2 2024, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 74.66% to 1.067 billion yuan [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to maintain good growth in the energy drink market nationwide, with projected EPS for 2024-2026 at 7.55, 9.37, and 11.16 yuan, respectively [4]. - The corresponding P/E ratios for these years are estimated at 30, 24, and 20 times based on the closing price of 227.94 yuan per share on August 30, 2024 [4]. Market Expansion - The company is optimizing its distribution system and enhancing its business team outside Guangdong, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth [4]. - The company’s other beverage revenue surged by 193.84% year-on-year to 630 million yuan, accounting for 14.37% of total revenue, an increase of 7.14 percentage points year-on-year [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-B" and is maintained [1][2] Core Views - The company continues to experience high growth, with a 44.19% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2024, reaching 78.73 billion yuan, and a 56.17% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, amounting to 17.31 billion yuan [1] - The company is focusing on a multi-category strategy, with significant growth in its new product lines, particularly the "Dongpeng Water" series, which saw a revenue increase of 281.12% year-on-year [1][2] - The company is expected to maintain its strong performance and gradually transition from a single-category to a multi-category beverage enterprise, leveraging its brand, channel, and scale advantages [2] Revenue Analysis - In H1 2024, the Dongpeng Special Drink series generated 68.55 billion yuan in revenue, a 33.49% increase, with the 500ml gold bottle being a major contributor [1] - The company has implemented a nationwide sales strategy, achieving significant revenue growth across various regions, with the East China region seeing a 53.60% increase [1][2] Profit Analysis - The company's gross margin for Q2 2024 was 46.05%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to economies of scale and a decrease in raw material prices [2] - The net profit margin reached a historical high of 24.29%, reflecting effective cost control and improved financial performance [2] Financial Forecast - The company's revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 152.55 billion yuan, 196.66 billion yuan, and 247.64 billion yuan, respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 35.4%, 28.9%, and 25.9% [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 29.13 billion yuan, 38.24 billion yuan, and 48.27 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 42.8%, 31.3%, and 26.2% [2][3]

[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 08 月 31 日 证券研究报告•2024 年半年报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：227.94 元 东鹏饮料（605499）食品饮料 目标价：——元（6 个月） 产品多元化发展，盈利能力再创新高 [Table_Summary 事件：公司发布] 2024 年半年报，上半年实现营业收入 78.7 亿元，同比增长 44.2%；实现归母净利润 17.3亿元，同比增长 56.2%；实现扣非归母净利润 17.1 亿元，同比增长 72.3%。其中 24Q2实现营业收入 43.9亿元，同比增长 47.9%； 实现归母净利润 10.7亿元，同比增长 74.6%；实现扣非归母净利润 10.8亿元， 同比增长 101.5%。此外，公司拟向全体股东每 10股派发现金红利 25元（含税）， 以资本公积金向全体股东每 10 股转增 3 股。 产品、区域营收结构持续优化。1、分品类看，2024H1东鹏特饮、东鹏补水啦、 其他饮料分别实现收入 68.5 亿元（+33.5%）、4.8 亿元（+281%）、5.3 亿元 （+172%），补水啦及其他饮料合计占比达 12.8%，新品进一步放量。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Dongpeng Beverage, indicating a positive outlook on the company's performance and growth potential [5][6]. Core Views - Dongpeng Beverage has successfully accelerated its national expansion and is witnessing significant growth in its second growth curve, particularly with its "Brewed Water" product line [6]. - The company reported a strong financial performance for the first half of 2024, with total revenue reaching 7.873 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.731 billion yuan, up 56.2% [5][8]. - The company is transitioning from a single product focus to a multi-category platform, with its flagship energy drink, Dongpeng Special Drink, accounting for 87.19% of revenue, reflecting a decrease in reliance on a single market [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, Dongpeng Beverage achieved a gross profit margin of 44.6%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a decline in raw material prices [7]. - The company forecasts net profits of 3 billion yuan, 3.759 billion yuan, and 4.538 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 46.8%, 25.5%, and 20.7% [8][9]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the number of sales outlets, reaching 3.6 million, indicating a robust distribution network across the country [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][11]. Core Insights - The company continues to show strong performance with a projected revenue growth of 40.10% in 2024, 27.97% in 2025, and 21.42% in 2026, alongside net profit growth of 42.84%, 30.53%, and 24.79% respectively [3][11]. - The company is transitioning from a leader in energy drinks to a broader beverage platform, supported by strong performance in its second growth curve [3][11]. Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 78.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.19%, and a net profit of 17.31 billion yuan, up 56.17% [11]. - Q2 2024 revenue reached 43.91 billion yuan, reflecting a 47.88% year-on-year growth, with net profit increasing by 74.62% to 10.67 billion yuan [11]. - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 46.05%, an increase of 3.30 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a decrease in raw material costs [11]. Regional Expansion - The company is making steady progress in national expansion, with significant growth in regions such as North China, East China, and Southwest China [11]. - In Q2 2024, revenue from various regions showed strong growth, with North China and East China growing by 102.19% and 58.12% respectively [11]. Product Performance - The company’s functional drinks segment is accelerating, with the "Brewed Water" product showing remarkable growth, achieving a revenue of 6.30 billion yuan in Q2 2024, a year-on-year increase of 193.83% [11]. - The sales volume of the company's flagship energy drink increased by 32.96%, while the average price remained stable [11]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 157.79 billion yuan in 2024, 201.93 billion yuan in 2025, and 245.18 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.51% [3][11]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 31, 24, and 19 respectively [3][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Dongpeng Beverage (605499) with a target price of 250 CNY [2][5]. Core Views - Dongpeng Beverage achieved significant growth in H1 2024, with total revenue of 7.873 billion CNY, up 44.19% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.731 billion CNY, up 56.17% year-on-year [2][5]. - The company is experiencing robust sales momentum, with Q2 revenue reaching 4.391 billion CNY, a 47.88% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 1.067 billion CNY, a 74.62% increase year-on-year [2][5]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the Dongpeng energy drink line, which saw a 36% increase in sales, and the rapid growth of the "Bushuila" product line, which grew by 281.12% year-on-year [2][5]. - The company is expanding its distribution network, having covered over 3.6 million outlets and nearly 3,000 distributors, which supports its growth strategy [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - H1 2024 financials show a significant increase in both revenue and profit, with a gross margin of 46.1%, up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][5]. - The report indicates that the company's operating cash flow improved significantly, with a 145.3% increase year-on-year in Q2 [2][5]. - The net profit margin for Q2 2024 was reported at 24.3%, reflecting a 3.7 percentage point increase year-on-year [2][5]. Regional Performance Summary - In Q2 2024, revenue from Guangdong reached 1.193 billion CNY, up 14.99% year-on-year, while other regions showed even higher growth rates, with national revenue increasing by 62.25% [2][9]. - The report notes that the consumer base is expanding, with significant contributions from first- and second-tier cities, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2][5]. Future Outlook - The report projects continued growth for Dongpeng Beverage, with revised earnings forecasts for 2024-2026, estimating net profits of 3.018 billion CNY, 4.020 billion CNY, and 5.050 billion CNY respectively [5][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing cost reductions and a favorable market environment, positioning it as a leading player in the beverage industry [5][6].