化工行业周报（20250707-20250713） 本周液氯、三氯甲烷、HIPS、氯化钾等产品涨幅居前 2025 年 07 月 14 日 化工周观点： ➢ 重点关注半年报业绩好的标的。建议开始寻找二季度景气度好，业绩有望超 预期的标的，建议关注圣泉集团、海利得和卓越新能。首先是和下游宏观经济相 关性较弱，受益 AI 资本开支持续提升的新材料行业，圣泉集团是 AI 服务器中核 心电子树脂的主要国内供应商，随着下游服务器出货量持续放量，公司业绩有望 环比提升。其次是海外有工厂，受益于美国关税冲突的细分行业龙头，建议关注 涤纶工业丝的领军企业海利得。然后是公司自身产能增长，随着新项目新产品投 产，业绩有望上一个台阶的卓越新能。 ➢ 磷肥出口窗口期已至，磷肥高景气有望持续。根据中国化肥信息网，磷肥的 出口指导具体情况如下：1、2025 年磷肥出口或将分阶段进行，首批集中在 5-9 月高峰期，第二批视国内供需动态调整。2、法检时间缩减，预计半月左右时间。 3、2025 年磷肥出口配额总量比去年减少。当前磷肥处于春耕后的淡季，出口有 望缓解国内产能过剩问题，国际高价出口有望进一步维持企业盈利水平，建议关 注具备磷矿资源配 ...

上 市 公 司 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 07 月 11 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 28.79 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 32.01/17.14 | | 市净率 | 2.4 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 3.30 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 22,482 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,510.18/10,696.10 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 基础化工 2025 年 07 月 14 日 圣泉集团 (605589) —— 高频高速树脂快速放量，大庆生物质项目持续减亏， 公司 Q2 业绩同环比高增 | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 11.84 | | 资产负债率% | 33.84 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 846/781 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 07-11 08-11 09-11 10-11 11-11 12-11 0 ...

行 业 及 产 业 基础化工 2025 年 07 月 13 日 陶氏将关闭英国巴里有机硅产能， 算力拉动 PCB 量价齐升，东南亚 对等关税好于预期 看好 ——《化工周报 25/07/07-25/07/11》 证 券 研 究 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230123090004 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230525070002 lisc@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com 联系人 马昕晔 (8621)23297818× maxy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ...

摘要 圣泉集团预计 2025 年半年度归母净利润 4.9 亿至 5.13 亿元，同比增长 48.19%至 54.83%，主要受益于 AI 算力爆发带动高频高速板材需求及 新建电子材料放量，主业技术表现稳定，大庆项目减亏明显。 圣泉集团电子化学品业务取得显著进展，通过扩建产能和科研投入迅速 响应 AI 市场需求，产品从单一扩展到聚苯醚、碳氢树脂等低介电材料系 列，并与终端客户合作开发封装载板耗材，上半年电子产品营收增加约 1.7 亿元。 顺天集团在 PCB 产业链中 PPO 和 OPE 产品上半年及二季度以来同环比 显著增长，新产品贡献较大，去年年底四条产线全部拉满，预计今年年 底将再增加一条产线，以应对不断增长的市场需求。 圣泉电子计划通过融资支持电子领域发展，并进行产业投资配合，吸引 更多财务机构参与，巩固平台性高科技公司属性，提高商业化能力，推 动整体业务成长。本月计划释放 10%股权，下半年或考虑再释放。 公司去年投产的 1,000 吨项目已安装三条生产线，正安装第四条通用型 产线，可生产 ODV、OPE、TPO 和 MTPO，并计划在洛川湖地区建设 三栋厂房，用于 PPO、ODV 及其他碳氢树脂产品， ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the deep analysis of Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ), emphasizing a consumer-centric approach and digital empowerment of the supply chain to enhance competitive barriers [9][10] - The company is expected to face a 21% underperformance compared to the liquor sector from H2 2023 to H1 2025, with a projected PE decline of 45% due to internal and external cyclical pressures [9][11] - Luzhou Laojiao is actively reducing channel burdens and advancing digital transformation, which is seen as a strategic advantage in a weak industry environment [9][10] Group 2 - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant demand increase driven by AI applications, with TI expanding production to meet future needs and storage prices continuing to rise [19][21] - The global semiconductor sales in May 2025 reached $58.98 billion, marking a 19.8% year-on-year growth, with China's semiconductor sales at $17.08 billion, up 13% [21][22] - The report recommends focusing on semiconductor manufacturing companies and AI-related enterprises, highlighting the importance of domestic AI development in the semiconductor supply chain [21][27] Group 3 - The medical and biological sector is witnessing a strong performance, with a focus on innovative drug development, particularly in radioactive ligand therapy, which is expected to grow rapidly [29][30] - The report identifies XTR005 and XTR008 as key products in the pipeline, with XTR005 being the first PET diagnostic radioactive ligand approved in China [30][31] - The overall medical sector is projected to continue its upward trend, with a notable increase in clinical data competitiveness for domestic innovative drugs [31]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月09日 圣泉集团（605589.SH） 优于大市 新建产能快速投产稳产，半年度业绩预告同比高增 公司半年度归母净利润预计同比增长 48.19%-54.83%。圣泉集团 7 月 8 日晚 公布半年度业绩预增预告，预计 2025 年上半年度实现归属于母公司所有者 的净利润 49100 万元到 51300 万元，与上年同期相比，增加 15967.70 万元 到 18167.70 万元，同比增加 48.19%到 54.83%。其中二季度公司归母净利润 为 28428.8-30628.8 万元，同比增加 46.59%到 57.93%，环比增加 37.53%到 48.17%。 受益于全球 AI 算力建设、高频通信及新能源汽车、储能等领域快速发展， 带动公司先进电子材料及电池材料放量增长。聚苯醚树脂超低介电常数和介 电损耗的特性使其成为制造高频高速 PCB 基板理想材料，公司自主研发的聚 苯醚树脂通过国内重点头部企业认证。硅碳负极材料应用领域逐渐从消费电 子向动力电池拓展。2025 年上半年公司 1000 吨/年 PPO 树脂、1000 吨/年多 孔碳等先进电子材料及电池材料生产线产能陆续 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [6][4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 491-513 million RMB for 25H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 48%-55% [1][6] - The growth in net profit is primarily driven by the expansion in advanced electronic materials and battery materials, as well as the reduction of losses in biomass production [2][3] - The company is releasing production capacity for advanced electronic materials and battery materials, which is expected to further enhance profitability [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 25H1, the company anticipates a net profit of 4.91-5.13 billion RMB, with a non-recurring net profit of 4.71-4.93 billion RMB, both showing a year-on-year increase of 48%-55% [1][6] - The second quarter is projected to yield a net profit of 2.84-3.06 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46%-58% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 37%-48% [1][2] Growth Drivers - The growth in net profit is attributed to the demand in AI and other fields, which has led to increased production and sales of advanced electronic materials and battery materials [2][3] - The company is expanding its market share and sales volume in synthetic resins due to new fields of application [2] Production Capacity and Future Outlook - The company is gradually releasing production capacity for advanced electronic materials, including 1000 tons/year of PPO resin and 1000 tons/year of porous carbon [3] - Future expansion plans include starting projects for 2000 tons/year of PPO/OPE resin and other resin products, which are expected to contribute to profitability [3][4] Valuation and Price Target - The net profit forecasts for 25-27 are adjusted to 1.20 billion, 1.39 billion, and 1.61 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth of 39%, 16%, and 15% respectively [4] - The target price is set at 34.08 RMB, based on a 24x PE valuation for 25, reflecting an increase from the previous target of 27.09 RMB [4][6]

Group 1 - US stock market showed mixed results with Dow Jones down 0.37%, Nasdaq up 0.03%, and S&P 500 down 0.07% [1] - Tesla rebounded by 1.32% and Nvidia increased by 1.12%, both reaching new highs [1] - Meta Platforms and Apple saw increases of up to 0.32%, while Microsoft decreased by 0.22% and Google A dropped by 1.37% [1] Group 2 - Trump seeks to tighten clean energy tax regulations, leading to a decline in solar stocks, with SunRun falling over 11% [2] - Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper and a 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals, resulting in the largest increase in copper futures since 1968 [2] Group 3 - Meta invested $3.5 billion in EssilorLuxottica to advance its AI glasses strategy [3] Group 4 - SpaceX, owned by Musk, achieved a valuation of approximately $400 billion during a stock sale [4][11] Group 5 - Hugging Face released an open-source top model featuring dual-mode reasoning and 128K context, marking a significant advancement in AI [5] Group 6 - The 2025 Esports World Cup will be held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, with a total prize pool exceeding $70 million [6] Group 7 - Germany warned that the EU is prepared to retaliate if a fair trade agreement cannot be reached [7] Group 8 - Morgan Stanley predicts TSMC will continue to exceed expectations in Q2, with strong advanced process orders, although the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar may pose profitability challenges [8] Group 9 - The Chinese government is promoting the application of new technologies like AI in public services, as outlined in a recent policy document [9] Group 10 - Pacific Securities noted that multiple indices broke through their consolidation ranges, indicating a strong short-term market trend [10] - Everbright Securities suggested that if the Shanghai Composite Index surpasses 3500 points, it could further boost market confidence and attract more capital [10] Group 11 - Shentong Express partnered with Cainiao to accelerate the application of unmanned delivery vehicles, aiming to deploy 2000 unmanned vehicles by the end of the year [12] - Guohai Securities highlighted that the development of regulations for unmanned vehicles is paving the way for the logistics industry's standardization [12] Group 12 - The National Development and Reform Commission and six other departments released a plan to enhance the childcare service system, projecting the market size for childcare services in China to reach 151.81 billion yuan by 2024 [16]

【DT新材料】 获悉，7月8日， 圣泉集团 发布 半年度业绩预增公告 ，公司预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润 49,100.00万元 到 51,300.00万元 ，同比增加 48.19% 到 54.83% 。 公司预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润 47,100.00万元 到 49,300.00万元 ，同比增加 48.02% 到 54.93% 。 业绩增长主要原 因为 受益于全球AI算力建设、高频通信及新能源汽车、储能等领域快速发展 ，带动公司先进电子材料及电池材料放量增长。 此外， 公司 1000 吨/年 PP0 树脂 、 1000 吨/年多孔碳 等先进电子材料及电池材料生产线产能陆续释放，逐步实现满产满销； 通过布局新领域、开发新应用，公司合成树脂产业市场份额扩大，实现销量的稳步提升；大庆生产基地" 100 万吨/年生物质精炼一体化(一期工程)项目 "持续平稳运行，产能利用率不断提升，报告期内实现减亏，对公司整体业绩提升起到了积极作用。 近期， 在生物基材料与能源领域深耕多年的圣泉集团，近期动作频频，交出了一份令人瞩目的成绩单： 点击扩展阅读： 圣泉集团 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shengquan Group is expected to achieve a net profit of 491 million to 513 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 48.19% to 54.83% due to the rapid development of global AI computing power, high-frequency communication, and sectors like new energy vehicles and energy storage [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by advancements in electronic materials and battery materials [1] - The production lines for 1000 tons/year PPO resin and 1000 tons/year porous carbon are gradually reaching full capacity, contributing to sales growth [1] Group 2: Business Development - Shengquan Group's synthetic resin industry is expanding its market share, leading to steady sales growth [1] - The Daqing production base's "1 million tons/year biomass refining integration (Phase I project)" is operating smoothly, with increasing capacity utilization, positively impacting overall performance [1][2] Group 3: Industry Position - Shengquan Group is a leading domestic synthetic resin enterprise, with the largest production and sales scale of phenolic resin and furan resin in China and among the top globally [1] - The company has a strong presence in the casting auxiliary materials sector, with a furan resin production capacity of 120,000 tons, ranking first in the world [1] Group 4: Future Growth Potential - The biomass industry expansion project is expected to become a new profit growth point for the company [2] - The demand for high-energy-density batteries in the battery sector is anticipated to drive rapid growth in advanced electronic materials and battery materials [2] - Shengquan Group is actively pursuing overseas business opportunities, with the Thailand alloy project set to be completed and put into production this year [2]