今日（1月21日）科创板大涨，创业板亦有亮眼表现，覆盖科创板+创业板高成长龙头的硬科技宽基——双创龙头ETF（588330）场内价格盘中涨超3.1%， 现涨2.51%。 | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 | 两日图 | 申万一级行业 | 由万 级行业 | 由万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 成本中科 | 20.00% | | | 未言体 | 数字芯片设计 | 713亿 | 21.53亿 | | 2 | 漏起科技 | 13.96% | | | 半导体 | 数字芯片设计 | 1868亿 | 118.41亿 | | 3 | 海光信息 | 13.63% | | | 未言体 | 数字芯片设计 | 6714亿 | 153.75亿 | | 4 | 三环集团 | 6.32% | | | 元件 | 被动力性 | 1022亿 | 11.95亿 | | 5 | 芯原股份 | 5.71% | | | 半导体 | 数字芯片设计 | 1035亿 | 41.21亿 | | 6 | 去邦股份 | 5.64% | | | ...

Group 1: Market Activity - The storage chip sector is active, with Longxin Zhongke hitting a 20% limit up at the opening, and Haiguang Information rising by 13%, driving the integrated circuit ETF up over 5% and more than 18% year-to-date [1] - The integrated circuit ETF tracks the CSI All-Share Integrated Circuit Index, serving as a convenient tool for investing in leading companies across the entire chip industry chain [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are reportedly continuing to cut NAND flash production, which may exacerbate supply shortages, with Samsung's NAND wafer production expected to drop from 4.9 million last year to 4.68 million this year [3] - Micron Technology has indicated that the shortage of memory chips is worsening, driven by surging demand for high-end semiconductors required for artificial intelligence infrastructure [3] - The global 8-inch wafer supply is entering a period of imbalance, with a projected 2.4% reduction in total global 8-inch foundry capacity by 2026 due to strategic production cuts by major players [3] Group 3: Financial Performance and Projections - TSMC's earnings exceeded expectations, leading to an increase in its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to between $52 billion and $56 billion, up from $40.9 billion in 2025 [4] - TSMC anticipates a year-over-year revenue growth of 35.7% to 40% for the current quarter, with net profit reaching approximately $16 billion, driven by strong demand for AI high-performance chips [4] - Gartner projects that global AI spending will reach $2.53 trillion by 2026 and climb to $3.33 trillion by 2027, indicating a significant increase in demand for computing power and related components [4] Group 4: Industry Growth Drivers - Zhejiang Securities believes that the urgent demand for memory bandwidth and capacity driven by AI training and inference is propelling the storage industry into a new growth cycle, with both volume and price increasing [5] - The widespread application of AI, particularly in data-intensive fields such as deep learning and natural language processing, is leading to a noticeable increase in storage demand [5] - The integration of generative AI in end-user devices is expected to drive significant upgrades in storage capacity within the smartphone industry [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed positive momentum with the ChiNext 50 Index increasing by 4%, driven by strong performance in the storage chip sector and significant trading volume in the ChiNext 50 ETF [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The ChiNext 50 Index opened lower but turned positive, with a maximum increase of 4.29% for the ChiNext 50 ETF (588000) [1] - The trading volume for the ChiNext 50 ETF reached 4.643 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Sector Highlights - The storage chip sector was particularly active, with Longxin Zhongke hitting the daily limit, Haiguang Information rising by 16.05%, and other companies like Lanke Technology and Zhongkong Technology also showing significant gains [1] - The electronic industry constitutes 70.35% of the holdings in the ChiNext 50 Index, aligning well with the development of advanced sectors such as artificial intelligence and robotics [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Open Source Securities anticipates that TSMC's increased capital expenditure will boost expectations for advanced process capacity expansion [1] - High-end advanced packaging, essential for AI chips, is expected to see significant demand growth as manufacturing capacity is released [1] - Investors optimistic about China's hard technology development are encouraged to continue monitoring the sector [1]

国金证券观点显示，央企科技ETF具备多维度投资逻辑；在航天领域，商业航天产业化加速，卫星数量 与单星面积双增，UTG玻璃作为关键封装材料需求明确，钙钛矿发展带动TCO玻璃需求；电子材料方 面，载板提价反映行业高景气，AI芯片与消费电子争夺产能，技术变革扩大low-CTE电子布、载体铜箔 等材料需求。央企在航天、电子材料等科技领域具备技术与资源优势，相关板块成长空间广阔，央企科 技ETF有望受益于这些领域的发展机遇。 此外，央国企方面，年初央国企重大投资呈现高度战略聚焦，以服务国家"三重保障"为核心导向，项目 多集中于现代基础设施与前沿技术领域；其推进模式强调从顶层设计、央企主导到地方与产业链协同的 系统性，并注重长远效益与自主可控，奠定了全年高质量发展的基调，有望为"十五五"开局之年高质量 发展注入新动能。 央企科技ETF南方(560170.SH)跟踪中证国新央企科技引领指数，该指数由国新投资有限公司定制，主要 选取业务涉及航空航天与国防、半导体、计算机、通信设备及技术服务等行业的50 只央企上市公司证 券作为指数样本，以反映央企科技主题上市公司证券的整体表现；央企科技板块在政策呵护、产业催 化、国防安全刚性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector is experiencing significant growth, with the Chip 50 ETF (516920) seeing a surge of over 4% and attracting substantial capital inflow, indicating strong market interest in semiconductor investments [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Chip 50 ETF (516920) recorded a trading volume of 80 million yuan, with a total capital inflow of over 38 million yuan in the last two days [1]. - Key stocks within the Chip 50 ETF showed positive performance, with notable increases such as Haiguang Information rising over 16% and Lanke Technology increasing over 11% [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Intel and AMD plan to raise server CPU prices by 10%-15% to address supply-demand imbalances and ensure stable future supply, with their server CPU capacity for 2026 already largely pre-sold [3]. - The global demand for storage is structurally increasing, driven by the growth of artificial intelligence, which is significantly underappreciated by the market [3]. Group 3: CPU Importance in AI Era - The importance of CPUs is expected to rise in the AI era, as new computing scenarios demand higher processing speed and accuracy, making CPU innovation a key focus for the computing industry [4][5]. - High-end AI servers typically follow a configuration of "2 high-end CPUs for every 8 GPUs," highlighting the CPU's critical role in system stability and performance [5]. Group 4: Market Trends and Projections - The general server market is recovering, with a projected over 9% year-on-year growth in global server shipments, driven by data center upgrades and the replacement of existing server CPUs [6]. - Cloud vendors are expected to increase capital expenditures to meet AI demand, with global AI server shipments projected to grow over 20% year-on-year by 2026, accounting for 17% of total server shipments [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the AI industry [1] Core Insights - The capital expenditure (Capex) guidance from major overseas companies is optimistic, with a continuous upward trend in computing power expected through 2026. The total Capex for Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta is projected to reach $406.5 billion in 2025 and $596.4 billion in 2026, representing year-on-year growth of 46% and 47% respectively [3][5][22] - The demand for AI-related infrastructure is driving significant upgrades in interconnects, cooling, and power supply sectors, indicating a long-term growth cycle distinct from previous technology cycles [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Major Companies' Capex Guidance - Major companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are expected to increase their Capex significantly, with projections of $186.4 billion, $139.5 billion, $162.5 billion, and $108 billion respectively for 2026 [6][7][14][18][21] - The overall Capex for these four companies is expected to account for 62% of the global AI-related Capex, which is projected to reach $960 billion by 2026 [22][23] 2. Interconnect Sector: Optical Modules and PCBs - The interconnect sector is experiencing a fundamental shift in demand due to AI server cluster construction, leading to simultaneous upgrades in computing boards, switches, and optical modules, which will increase both demand and pricing [3][4] - The deployment of 800G technology is expected to accelerate, with 1.6T technology entering the introduction phase [3] 3. Cooling Sector: Liquid Cooling Demand - The power density of AI GPU racks is projected to rise from 130 kW in 2024 to over 1 MW by 2029, making liquid cooling technology essential [3][4] 4. Power Supply Sector: AIDC Power Distribution Evolution - The evolution of AIDC power distribution methods is crucial, with a focus on HVDC and SST technologies to enhance system efficiency and reduce energy losses [3][4] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within various sectors: - Computing power: Haiguang Information - Interconnects - Optical modules: LightSpeed Technology, Huagong Technology - Interconnects - PCBs: Shenghong Technology, Shennan Circuits, and others - Cooling: Invec - Power supply: Magpow [3][4]

有色金属、新能源、油气开采等板块也上涨。截至上午收盘，上证指数上涨0.16%，深证成指上涨 0.76%，创业板指上涨0.85%。 科技股反弹 今天上午，科技股反弹，半导体产业链、算力产业链、消费电子等板块上涨。新易盛、通富微电、 澜起科技、中芯国际、中科曙光等龙头股上涨，且成交额居前。 | V | 半导体 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 14245.55 1.70% | | | | 成分股 基金 | 简况(F10) | 资金 | 板块分 | | 名称代码 | 最新 | 涨幅 ◆ | 流通市值 | | 龙芯中科 | 177.72 | 20.00% | 713亿 | | 融 688047 | | | | | 首板涨停 最终涨停 09:38 | | | | | 束龄股份 | 26.27 | 12.70% | 67.91Z | | 融 920139 | | | | | 海光信息 | 285.74 | 12.40% | 6642 Z | | 融 688041 | | | | | 杰华特 | 52.12 | 11.97% | 235亿 | | 融 688141 | | | | | ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall upward trend on January 21, with major indices rising to varying degrees, particularly the electronic sector which saw a surge in limit-up stocks [1][2][5] - The ChiNext Index rose over 1.5%, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by more than 4% during the trading session [2] Group 2: Electronic Sector Performance - The electronic sector led the market with a gain of over 2.8%, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit-up [5] - Notable stocks included Longxin Technology and Zhongrong Electric, both achieving a limit-up of 20%, while several others like Kexiang Co. and Jiehuate saw increases exceeding 10% [5][6] Group 3: Stock Performance Data - Key stock performance data includes: - Longxin Technology (688047) at 177.72, up 20.00% with a trading volume of 2.075 billion - Zhongrong Electric (301031) at 143.40, up 20.00% with a trading volume of 687 million - Other significant gainers included Haiguang Information (688041) up 12.40% and Dagan Co. (002077) up 10.03% [6] Group 4: Lithium Sector Activity - The lithium mining sector also saw significant gains, with the sector rising over 2% and stocks like Dazhong Mining and Weicheng Mining hitting the daily limit-up [7] - The surge was attributed to a notable increase in domestic lithium carbonate futures, with the main contract rising over 6% [7] Group 5: New Stock Listing - A new stock, Aisheren, debuted on the A-share market with an impressive rise of over 200% during its trading session [9] - Aisheren focuses on the medical health sector, specializing in the development, production, and sales of disposable medical supplies for rehabilitation and medical protection [11] Group 6: Hong Kong Market Highlights - In the Hong Kong market, Skyworth Group saw a significant increase, with its stock price rising over 40% during the trading session [12] - The company announced plans for a distribution and listing of its solar subsidiary, Skyworth Solar, contingent on meeting certain conditions [14][15]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend in the morning session, led by non-ferrous metals and technology sectors, with major indices collectively rising [2] - As of the midday break, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 4120.10 points, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.76%, the ChiNext Index by 0.85%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Index by 1.91% [2] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.63 trillion yuan, a decrease of 216.9 billion yuan compared to the same period of the previous trading day [2] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector experienced a significant surge, particularly in memory chips, with the Shenwan Semiconductor Index rising by 2.65% in the morning session [6] - Notable stocks included Longxin Zhongke, which hit a 20% limit up within the first 7 minutes of trading, along with other companies like Dagang Co., Huatian Technology, and Tongfu Microelectronics also reaching their daily limit [6][7] - The demand for high-end semiconductors is expected to remain tight due to a surge in requirements for AI infrastructure, as stated by Micron Technology [8] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector continued to rise, with the Shenwan Precious Metals Index increasing by 4.96% in the morning session, bringing the year-to-date gain to 30.19% [10] - International gold prices reached a new high of $4849.816 per ounce, marking a 12% increase since the beginning of the year [4] - Domestic gold futures also saw a rise of 3.49%, reaching a new high of 1093.48 yuan per gram [13] - Several gold jewelry brands have significantly raised their domestic gold jewelry prices, with some exceeding 1500 yuan per gram [14]

Group 1: Technology Sector Performance - The technology sector experienced a broad rebound, with the semiconductor and computing power industries leading the gains [1][3] - Haiguang Information surged over 12%, reaching a historical high with a market capitalization of 664.16 billion yuan and a trading volume of 13.851 billion yuan, the highest in A-shares [1][2] - Other leading stocks in the semiconductor sector, such as Xin Yisheng, Tongfu Microelectronics, and Zhongke Shuguang, also saw significant increases in their trading volumes [3] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry Insights - The rise in semiconductor stocks is attributed to two main narratives: the anticipated price increase of CPUs and the surge in packaging and testing prices [5][7] - The demand for AI servers is expected to grow significantly, with global AI server shipments projected to increase by over 20% year-on-year by 2026, accounting for 17% of total server shipments [6] - The semiconductor packaging sector is facing price increases due to capacity shortages and rising costs of raw materials, such as precious metals [7] Group 3: Precious Metals and Energy Sector - The precious metals sector saw a notable increase, with stocks like Hunan Silver and Zhaojin Gold hitting their daily limits [8][10] - The price of spot gold surpassed $4,800 per ounce, marking a historical high and boosting market sentiment towards gold and related assets [11] - The lithium carbonate futures market also experienced a significant rise, driven by supply chain disruptions and renewed subsidies for electric vehicles in Germany [11]