Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is expected to establish a joint platform by the end of 2025, with a clear supply-side reform strategy focusing on top-level policies, industry self-discipline, and technological iteration. The sector has completed price and profit stabilization, indicating a positive market outlook [1]. Group 1: Joint Platform and Supply-Side Reform - The establishment of the joint platform is crucial for accelerating supply-side reforms in the polysilicon sector, which is the most upstream part of the photovoltaic industry chain. This initiative involves 17 major companies and aims to address the severe overcapacity and price wars that have led to a "low price-loss" cycle [2]. - The collaborative mechanism of the joint platform will facilitate the elimination of outdated production capacity and help polysilicon prices return to levels above the cost line, thereby laying a solid foundation for profit recovery across the entire industry chain [2]. Group 2: Price and Profit Recovery - The ongoing "anti-involution" efforts have led to a significant expansion of participating entities and noticeable recovery in product prices. By the third quarter of 2025, polysilicon prices began to rise above the comprehensive cost line, resulting in substantial profit recovery for companies [3]. - For instance, Daqo Energy reported a net profit of 73.48 million yuan in the third quarter of 2025, marking the end of five consecutive quarters of losses, while GCL-Poly also achieved profitability in its photovoltaic materials business during the same period [3].

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Photovoltaic Industry Industry Overview - The report focuses on the photovoltaic (PV) industry in China, tracking monthly supply and demand dynamics, inventory levels, and cash gross profit margins and EBITDA profit margin trends for covered companies [1][2]. Key Points Pricing and Valuation - As of October, the market pricing for 2026 is projected at RMB 58/kg for polysilicon, RMB 1.8/piece for wafers, RMB 0.66/W for modules, and RMB 13/m² for PV glass. The forecasted prices are significantly lower at RMB 42/kg, RMB 1.3/piece, RMB 0.67/W, and RMB 10/m² respectively [2][12]. - The average stock price of covered companies faces a potential downside risk of 34% based on current valuations [2]. Industry Dynamics - The industry is experiencing "anti-involution" measures, with new regulations stating that pricing cannot fall below production costs, which may only slightly improve the pricing outlook for polysilicon compared to the lows seen in June [2]. - Downstream companies are expected to reduce prices to expand market share amid weak demand, despite the need to cut costs [2]. Supply and Inventory Trends - As of October, polysilicon inventory increased by 7% month-over-month to 275 GW, with approximately 150 GW at polysilicon plants, 110 GW at wafer plants, and 15 GW in futures contracts [3]. - PV glass manufacturers saw a significant increase in inventory days, rising 63% to 25 days (equivalent to 40 GW) due to sluggish shipment volumes [3]. - Production cuts are progressing slowly, with a projected 6% decrease in monthly polysilicon output for November and December due to seasonal price peaks in the Midwest [3]. Export and Demand - Exports of battery cells and modules decreased by 10% and 4% month-over-month to 11 GW and 28 GW respectively, primarily due to the end of peak demand seasons in overseas markets [3]. - The global demand for modules in September decreased by 6% year-over-year to 43 GW, although cumulative demand for the first nine months of 2025 increased by 30% to 525 GW [14][19]. Profit Margins - The cash profit margins for upstream sectors remained stable, while downstream margins further declined [5][6]. - The cash gross profit margin for Tier 1 polysilicon is reported at 37%, while the margins for cells and modules are negative, indicating significant pressure on profitability [6]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the potential for further increases in silver prices, which could impact downstream pricing acceptance due to its significant share (30%-40%) of non-silicon processing costs [3]. - The anticipated increase in production capacity for PV glass may exacerbate inventory issues if demand does not recover [3]. Conclusion - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is currently facing challenges with pricing, inventory management, and profitability. The outlook remains cautious, with potential risks to investment returns highlighted by the significant downside in stock valuations and the need for strategic pricing adjustments in response to market conditions [2][3][5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the photovoltaic sector [4]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing significant price recovery and profit restoration due to supply-side reforms, particularly in the polysilicon segment, which is crucial for the entire supply chain [4]. - A joint platform involving 17 major companies is expected to be established by the end of 2025, aimed at addressing supply-side issues and preventing disorderly expansion in the industry [4]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw notable profit recovery for companies like Daqo New Energy and GCL-Poly Energy, marking an end to a prolonged period of losses [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The photovoltaic sector is undergoing supply-side reforms with a focus on polysilicon, which is essential for controlling costs and profit distribution across the supply chain [4]. - The establishment of a joint platform is a key step in addressing the oversupply and price wars that have plagued the industry [4]. Market Performance - Following the announcement of the joint platform, the photovoltaic sector saw a significant stock price increase, with companies like LONGi Green Energy and Trina Solar reaching new highs [2][4]. - The price recovery in the polysilicon market has led to improved profitability for several companies, indicating a positive trend for the industry [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on polysilicon companies such as Tongwei Co., Daqo New Energy, and GCL-Poly Energy as key investment opportunities [4]. - Additionally, companies in the BC segment like Aiko Solar and LONGi Green Energy are highlighted for their potential independent market performance [4]. - As the supply-side reforms progress, attention is also drawn to auxiliary material companies like Foster and Xinyi Glass, which may benefit from the overall recovery in the sector [4].

Investment Rating - The report rates the photovoltaic industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [4]. Core Insights - The establishment of a joint platform involving 17 major companies is expected to accelerate supply-side reforms in the polysilicon sector, which is crucial for addressing the industry's overcapacity and price wars [4]. - The "anti-involution" initiative has led to significant price recovery and profit restoration across the industry, with companies like Daqo New Energy and GCL-Poly Energy reporting a return to profitability in Q3 2025 [4]. - The report suggests that the joint platform will be completed by the end of 2025, supported by top-level policies, industry self-discipline, and technological advancements, which will further stabilize prices and profits [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant shift with the formation of a joint platform aimed at addressing supply-side issues, particularly in polysilicon production [4]. - The industry has faced severe price competition leading to losses, but recent collaborative efforts are expected to restore profitability [4]. Company Analysis - Key companies to watch include: 1. Polysilicon leaders: Tongwei Co., Daqo New Energy, and GCL-Poly Energy [4]. 2. Companies with independent alpha performance: Aiko Solar and LONGi Green Energy [4]. 3. Companies in auxiliary materials: Foster and Xinyi Glass, which are expected to benefit from the overall recovery in the sector [4]. Financial Metrics - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, highlighting their market capitalization and projected net profits for 2025 and beyond [5]. - For instance, Tongwei Co. has a market cap of 112 billion yuan with a projected net profit of -5.23 billion yuan for 2025, while Daqo New Energy is projected to recover to a profit of 1.36 billion yuan in 2026 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is showing significant signs of recovery, particularly among silicon material companies, which are leading the way in improved performance, while other segments like batteries, silicon wafers, and modules are also showing positive trends [2][4]. Group 1: Performance of Silicon Material Companies - Major silicon material companies such as Daqo Energy and Shuangliang Energy reported profitability in Q3 2025, with Daqo Energy achieving a revenue of 1.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.75%, and a net profit of 73.48 million yuan, ending a continuous loss since Q2 2024 [4][3]. - Shuangliang Energy also turned profitable in Q3, with a revenue of 1.688 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 49.86%, but a net profit increase of 164.75% [4]. - Tongwei Co. reduced its losses significantly in Q3, with a loss of 315 million yuan compared to over 2 billion yuan in the previous quarter [4]. Group 2: Price and Cost Dynamics - The recovery in silicon material companies' performance is attributed to rising silicon prices and decreasing production costs, alongside favorable industry policies [5][6]. - The average selling price of multi-crystalline silicon increased significantly, with prices rising from 41,500 yuan per ton in Q3 2025 compared to 30,330 yuan per ton in Q2 2025, marking an increase of over 28% [5]. - Daqo Energy reported a unit sales price of 41.49 yuan per kilogram in Q3, while its cash cost decreased to 34.63 yuan per kilogram [5][6]. Group 3: Overall Industry Trends - Other segments of the photovoltaic supply chain, including battery and module manufacturers, are also experiencing reduced losses, indicating a broader industry recovery [9][10]. - For instance, Junda Co. reported a net loss of 155 million yuan in Q3, a reduction of 38.05% year-on-year, while Dongfang Risheng reported a net loss of 254 million yuan, down 57.39% year-on-year [9]. - TCL Zhonghuan's revenue for the first nine months of 2025 was 21.572 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.48%, but it also reported a reduced net loss of 5.777 billion yuan, indicating a trend towards recovery in the industry [10].

Group 1 - The STAR Market indices showed positive performance, with the STAR 50 Index rising by 1.2%, STAR 100 Index and STAR Composite Index both increasing by 0.9%, and the STAR Growth Index up by 0.8% [1] - The photovoltaic sector experienced a significant surge, with notable stocks such as Aters reaching the daily limit, and Trina Solar, Goodwe, and Airo Energy rising over 10%. Jinko Solar, Daqo Energy, and YN Energy also saw increases of over 7% [1] - The solid-state battery sector also performed well, with Xiamen Tungsten New Energy rising over 9%, Hangke Technology up over 8%, and Jiayuan Technology and Liyuanheng increasing by over 4% [1] Group 2 - Small innovative enterprises in the electronic and pharmaceutical sectors accounted for over 80% of the market, indicating a high concentration in these industries [5] - The STAR Composite Index ETF by E Fund tracks the STAR Composite Index, which encompasses all market securities on the STAR Market, focusing on core industries such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [7] - The STAR Growth 50 ETF tracks the STAR Growth Index, which consists of 50 stocks with high growth rates in revenue and net profit, highlighting a strong growth style with a significant representation from the electronic and pharmaceutical sectors [7]

Core Points - Daqo Energy's stock increased by 5.2%, reaching 29.92 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 466 million CNY and a market capitalization of 64.185 billion CNY [1] - Daqo Energy, established on February 22, 2011, specializes in the research, manufacturing, and sales of high-purity polysilicon, with 97.95% of its revenue coming from this main business [1] Shareholder Analysis - Huatai-PB Fund's Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (510300) reduced its holdings by 570,700 shares in Q3, now holding 11.0963 million shares, representing 0.52% of the circulating shares, with an estimated floating profit of approximately 16.4226 million CNY [2] - The Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF was established on May 4, 2012, with a current size of 425.581 billion CNY, yielding 22.11% this year, ranking 2622 out of 4216 in its category [2] Fund Performance - The Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF's manager, Liu Jun, has a tenure of 16 years and 152 days, managing assets totaling 542.504 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 151.3% and the worst being -45.64% [3] Top Holdings - Huatai-PB Fund's Huatai-PB Prosperity Select Mixed A (009636) holds 258,000 shares of Daqo Energy, accounting for 1.59% of the fund's net value, with an estimated floating profit of about 381,800 CNY [4] - The Huatai-PB Prosperity Select Mixed A was established on June 17, 2020, with a current size of 466 million CNY, yielding 23.71% this year, ranking 4022 out of 8155 in its category [4] Fund Manager Information - Zhao Jie, the manager of Huatai-PB Prosperity Select Mixed A, has a tenure of 3 years and 54 days, managing assets totaling 55.5 million CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 4.25% and the worst being -9.26% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry chain experienced a collective surge in stock prices, with several companies reaching their daily limit up, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Longi Green Energy reached the daily limit up with a trading volume exceeding 6 billion yuan [1]. - Other companies such as Canadian Solar, Tongrun Equipment, and Hongyuan Green Energy also hit the daily limit up, while Trina Solar saw an increase of over 10% [1]. - Notable stock price increases include: - Canadian Solar: +19.97% to 14.84 yuan - Trina Solar: +10.53% to 19.63 yuan - Tongrun Equipment: +10.01% to 19.34 yuan - Longi Green Energy: +10.00% to 20.79 yuan - Hongyuan Green Energy: +9.99% to 26.32 yuan [2].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry chain experienced a collective surge on October 29, with several companies reaching their daily limit up, indicating strong market performance and investor interest in the sector [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Longi Green Energy (隆基绿能) reached a limit up with a price increase of 10% to 20.79 [2]. - Canadian Solar (阿特斯) saw a significant rise of 19.97%, reaching a price of 14.84 [2]. - Trina Solar (天合光能) increased by 10.53%, with a current price of 19.63 [2]. - Tongrun Equipment (通润装备) also rose by 10.01%, reaching 19.34 [2]. - Hongyuan Green Energy (弘元绿能) increased by 9.99%, with a price of 26.32 [2]. - Other notable companies included Sungrow Power Supply (阳光电源) with a 9.70% increase to 181.97 and Aiko Solar (爱旭股份) with a 9.50% rise to 16.37 [2][3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The overall trend in the photovoltaic sector indicates a robust recovery and investor confidence, as evidenced by the significant price increases across multiple companies [1][2]. - The collective performance suggests a positive outlook for the industry, potentially driven by favorable market conditions and increasing demand for solar energy solutions [1].

Summary of Conference Call Notes on China Solar: Poly Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the solar industry, specifically focusing on the Poly (polycrystalline silicon) segment, with key players including GCL Tech, Tongwei, and Daqo. Key Points and Arguments 3Q25 Earnings Performance - The three Poly companies reported stronger than expected earnings recovery in 3Q25 due to temporary tailwinds from policy-induced downstream re-stocking activities, reversing since late September [1][13] - Daqo's Poly sales volume increased by 134% quarter-over-quarter (qoq), while recognized Poly prices rose by 37% qoq [1] Future Price Outlook - GCL and Daqo expect Poly prices to remain between Rmb60-80/kg into 2026, while Tongwei anticipates industry-wide supply cuts to support further price increases [2] - Despite the positive outlook, there is caution regarding the Poly pricing trajectory, with cost reduction and supply-demand factors expected to outweigh policy influences [3] Cost Reduction and Production Guidance - GCL and Daqo reported cash cost declines of 5% and 11% qoq, respectively, with further declines expected [6] - Tongwei is estimated to have an 8% qoq cash cost decline due to seasonal factors [6] - Production cuts are anticipated, with Tongwei and GCL indicating potential cuts starting in early November, while Daqo has increased its utilization target rate (UTR) to 52%-56% for 4Q25 [6] Inventory Levels - Total Poly inventory is estimated at 275GW in October, significantly above the monthly module production demand during 4Q25-1Q26 [7] Company-Specific Financials - GCL achieved approximately 75k tons of Poly shipments with a gross profit of Rmb3/kg based on a Rmb42/kg Poly price [12] - Tongwei recorded around 95k tons of Poly sales, with a gross profit margin of 4% in 3Q25 [12] - Daqo reported 42k tons of shipments but faced a unit loss of Rmb4.55/kg [12] Investment Ratings and Price Targets - Post-results, target prices for Poly companies were raised by an average of 5%, but the market is viewed as overly bullish on the Poly pricing outlook, suggesting an average share price downside of 32% [9] - Investment ratings include "Sell" for Tongwei due to high exposure to the Poly segment and "Neutral" for Daqo due to a weak demand outlook [28][33] Risks and Considerations - Key risks include potential capacity exits by Tier 1 players and stronger-than-expected solar demand, which could shift profitability outlooks [29][31][34] - Downside risks involve weaker-than-expected solar demand and unfavorable changes in raw material prices that may increase production costs [32] Additional Important Information - The strong sales in 3Q25 were primarily driven by policy-induced re-stocking activities, which have since reversed [13] - Analysts express skepticism regarding the sustainability of the recent price increases given the rapid cost reduction progress among Tier 1 players [21] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the Poly segment within the solar industry.