Market Overview - On December 24, the A-share market opened slightly higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3920.35 points, up 0.01% [1][21] - The market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index showing slight gains, while the ChiNext Index was in the red [1][21] Sector Performance - The storage chip sector showed strength in early trading, with companies like Shenghui Integrated and Chuangyuan Technology achieving three consecutive trading limits [3][22] - The glass fiber sector remained active, with notable gains in stocks such as Jiu Ding New Materials and Zai Sheng Technology, both hitting the daily limit [12][33] Notable Stocks - Victory Energy achieved a nine-day trading limit, closing at 34.79 CNY per share, with a cumulative increase of 114.44% over the past eight trading days [13][34] - Semiconductor stocks in Hong Kong, including Shanghai Fudan, SMIC, and Huahong Semiconductor, also saw significant gains, with SMIC raising prices by approximately 10% for some production capacities [12][32] Commodity Market - Domestic precious metal futures continued to surge, with the main silver contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increasing by 7% [35][36] - Spot silver prices rose above 72.7 USD per ounce, driven by expectations of interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve following a lower-than-expected CPI in November [38][39]

Group 1 - The State Council emphasizes the need for all departments to align their actions with the central government's economic work requirements for the upcoming year, enhancing responsibility and urgency in implementing tasks [1] - The Ministry of Commerce highlights the importance of high-quality business development and international trade coordination, aiming to boost domestic and international economic cycles [2] - Researchers at Shanghai Jiao Tong University have achieved a breakthrough in all-optical computing chips, which could significantly enhance computational efficiency for AI and large-scale data processing [3] Group 2 - The National Internet Information Office and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have taken action against 17 accounts spreading rumors and illegal stock recommendations, emphasizing the need for accurate financial information dissemination [4] - Fujian Province has introduced a comprehensive financial support plan for technology innovation, aiming for a 10% annual growth in loans to technology-related industries by 2025-2027 [5] - The world's first commercial supercritical carbon dioxide power generation unit has successfully commenced operations, marking a significant advancement in energy technology [6] Group 3 - Moore Threads has launched a new GPU architecture, "Huagang," which boasts a 50% increase in computing density and a tenfold improvement in energy efficiency [7][8] - The first L3-level autonomous driving license has been issued to Changan Automobile, marking a significant milestone in the development of autonomous driving technology [9] - Nine U.S. pharmaceutical companies have reached agreements with the government to lower drug prices, indicating a shift towards more affordable healthcare solutions [10] Group 4 - The market has shown signs of recovery with a three-day rebound, although caution is advised as the overall trend has not yet confirmed a sustained upward movement [11] - Samsung has unveiled the world's first 2nm smartphone chip, which is expected to enhance performance significantly, indicating advancements in semiconductor technology [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a surge in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) within the semiconductor sector, driven by policy incentives and the need for industry upgrades, particularly among leading companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1][2][3] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board has seen the accumulation of 125 companies in the integrated circuit field, covering essential areas such as design, manufacturing, and testing, as well as supporting sectors like equipment and materials [1] - Notable transactions among leading firms like SMIC and Hua Hong are progressing steadily, indicating a shift in the Chinese semiconductor industry from quantity accumulation to qualitative leaps, reflecting the strategic goal of becoming globally competitive [1] Group 2 - Recent terminations of some semiconductor M&A transactions have raised market concerns, but this is viewed as a natural outcome of a more rational market approach rather than a cooling of industry consolidation [2] - Since the release of the "Eight Articles" policy, over 150 M&A transactions have been disclosed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with more than 70% successfully completed, while a number of others are actively progressing [2] - The innovative mechanisms introduced by the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, such as differentiated valuations and multi-payment tools, have facilitated complex industry integrations, removing institutional barriers for companies [2] Group 3 - The current phase of industry consolidation is characterized by optimizing resource allocation in the new productivity sector, rather than mere scale accumulation, and is crucial for nurturing leading "chain master" enterprises [3]

证券研究报告 摩尔、沐曦接踵而至，国产算力 群星闪耀 电子行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 TMT团队 核心摘要 摩尔、沐曦接踵而至，国产算力群星闪耀。2025年12月以来，国产算力大厂摩尔线程-U，C沐曦-U接连登陆A股科创板，为 AI产业发展及投资注入新的活力。在当前全球智能化时代的新一轮产业竞争过程中，AI算力已然成为兵家必争之地，虽然 英伟达为代表的美国算力厂商正处于执全球之牛耳的地位，然而国产算力厂商经过最近数年的磨砺，同样具备与之争锋的 潜力。除寒武纪、海光信息、昇腾之外，沐曦、摩尔线程、壁仞、天数、燧原、昆仑芯等也在快速进步中，ASIC、通用 GPU齐发力，共同推动AI算力芯片的国产进程。 根据沐曦股份招股说明书（12月10日），截止其报告期末，沐熙GPU累计销量已超过25000 颗，部署于10余个智算集群， 在国内AI算力芯片市场拥有一定的市场份额。根据摩尔线程招股说明书（11月27日），基于其自主研发的MUSA架构，公司 率先实现了单芯片架构同时支持AI计算加速、图形渲染、物理仿真和科学计算、超高清视频编解码的技术突破，有力推动 了我国GPU产业的自主可控进程。随着摩尔、沐曦为代表的算 ...

2025.12. 22 本文字数：2953，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 魏中原 从长三角地区来看，总市值达到31.51万亿元，占A股总市值的26.2%，其中，苏州、无锡、杭州等 市值增长幅度排名居前。合肥、武汉、绍兴等今年相继跨入万亿市值城市阵营。 市值变化背后，是经济增长动能的新旧转换。透过上市公司市值排名的升降，不仅可以看到各地产业 结构的差异，更能看出资本对区域经济前景的投票。 在城市竞争中，除传统金融与科技中心外，一 批制造业基础扎实、创新生态活跃的地级市正迎头赶上，推动A股市值地图向更加均衡、多元的方向 演进。 五强稳固，福建夺目，贵州下滑 2025年A股总市值跨过100万亿关口，截至12月19日已达120.31万亿，较年初增长22.2%。 从一杯白酒到一束"光"，A股上市公司四川省市值头把交椅的变化，正是电子行业爆发的缩影。 在川渝地区， 五粮液（000858.SZ）不再是四川省独一份的存在，取而代之的是光模块龙头新易盛 （300502.SZ），该股首次问鼎四川省市值第一 。 即将过去的这一年，AI掀起巨浪，电子与通信产业毫无悬念地站上潮头，科技牛股在各个行业加速 涌现，更在区域维度上 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the shift in market capitalization leadership in Sichuan Province from Wuliangye to the optical module leader, Xinyi Sheng, reflecting the explosive growth in the electronics industry [2][3] - The AI wave has significantly impacted the electronic and communication industries, leading to a surge in technology stocks across various sectors and driving profound changes in the market landscape [3][4] - The total market capitalization of A-shares has increased from 48.6 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year to 56.5 trillion yuan by year-end, marking a growth of nearly 8 trillion yuan [4] Group 2 - As of December 19, 2025, the total market capitalization of A-shares reached 120.31 trillion yuan, representing a year-to-date increase of 22.2% [5][6] - The top five provinces in terms of market capitalization are Beijing, Guangdong, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu, with a highly concentrated "pyramid" structure in market value distribution [5][6] - Fujian Province saw a remarkable market capitalization growth of 51.73%, driven by the strong performance of major companies like CATL and Zijin Mining, moving from seventh to sixth place in rankings [9] Group 3 - The Yangtze River Delta region leads with a total market capitalization of 31.51 trillion yuan, accounting for 26.2% of the A-share market, with significant contributions from semiconductor and AI hardware companies [10][11] - The market capitalization of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces grew by over 29%, showcasing their robust private economy and industrial upgrade momentum [11][12] - The total market capitalization of the Pearl River Delta reached 18.3 trillion yuan, benefiting from the development of electronics, automotive, and biomedicine industries [12] Group 4 - Major cities like Beijing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai continue to dominate A-share market capitalization, with Beijing's market value at 32.88 trillion yuan, supported by state-owned enterprises and tech companies [15] - Shenzhen's market capitalization increased by 23.1% to 12.23 trillion yuan, driven by key players in technology, finance, and new energy sectors [15] - The city of Suzhou experienced a significant market capitalization increase of 8839 billion yuan, with strong performances in advanced manufacturing sectors [16]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry in China is experiencing a wave of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) driven by policy incentives and the need for industrial upgrades, with leading companies focusing on "supply chain enhancement and value synergy" [1] Group 1: M&A Trends and Strategies - Leading semiconductor companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board are engaging in M&A to consolidate resources and enhance competitiveness, reflecting a shift from "quantity accumulation" to "quality leap" in the industry [1][2] - The semiconductor sector has seen 125 companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, accounting for over 60% of A-share counterparts, indicating a strong presence across various segments including design, manufacturing, and testing [2] - Major players like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor are pursuing strategic acquisitions to enhance their market share and technological capabilities, such as SMIC's move to gain full control of its subsidiary [2][3] Group 2: Sector-Specific M&A Activities - In the equipment segment, companies are using M&A to overcome technical barriers and transition towards platform development, as seen with the acquisition of Zhongsil Technology by Zhongwei [3] - The design, IP, and EDA sectors are witnessing urgent M&A needs, with domestic firms focusing on acquiring scarce resources to compete against established foreign leaders [3] - Notable transactions include Jingfeng Mingyuan's acquisition of a leading wireless charging firm to strengthen its market position and capabilities [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Transaction Rationality - The recent termination of some semiconductor M&A deals is viewed as a natural outcome of a rational market rather than a cooling of industry consolidation [4] - Since the implementation of the "Eight Articles" policy, over 150 M&A transactions have been disclosed, with more than 70% successfully completed, indicating a robust M&A environment [4] - The semiconductor industry is characterized by complex shareholder structures and high valuations, leading to increased negotiation challenges and a higher likelihood of deal terminations [4][5] Group 4: Institutional Innovation and Future Outlook - The rational prosperity of the semiconductor M&A market is supported by institutional innovations that enhance transaction flexibility and inclusivity [6] - The adoption of innovative payment mechanisms, such as convertible bonds and differentiated pricing, has facilitated strategic investments while safeguarding long-term interests [6] - Future M&A activities are expected to focus on optimizing resource allocation and fostering technological integration, marking a shift from mere scale expansion to creating substantial value [6]

Group 1 - The current policy is driving insurance capital to increase allocation in the stock market, with a significant acceleration observed in 2023, particularly in Q3 [1][2] - Insurance capital is favoring high ROE, high dividend yield, and undervalued stocks in the construction sector, with major holdings in China Power Construction, China State Construction, and Sichuan Road and Bridge [1][2] - Sichuan Road and Bridge has recently received a stake increase from Zhongyin Life, indicating a trend of insurance capital focusing on high-quality construction stocks [2] Group 2 - It is estimated that insurance capital will allocate 286 billion yuan to the construction sector by 2026, representing 3.5% of the free float market value [3] - The projected allocation for the construction sector from insurance capital is expected to be 508 billion yuan in 2025 and 794 billion yuan in 2026, with incremental increases of 271 billion yuan and 286 billion yuan respectively [3] - The construction sector is expected to attract long-term capital due to the presence of stable performance, high dividends, and low valuations among key A-share companies [4] Group 3 - The global demand for computing power is expected to grow significantly, driven by AI development, leading to a new growth cycle for cleanroom engineering [5] - Major semiconductor companies are increasing their capital expenditures, with TSMC projecting a doubling of its AI business by 2025 and a compound annual growth rate of approximately 40% over the next five years [5] - The cleanroom investment in the semiconductor industry is projected to reach approximately 168 billion yuan globally and 50.4 billion yuan in China by 2025, representing about 15% of the total industry capital expenditure [5]

Core Viewpoint - The growth in AI demand is driving global storage and advanced process capacity expansion, with expectations for accelerated domestic storage and advanced process expansion in 2026-2027. Domestic equipment manufacturers are seeing a positive order trend, and companies with strong positioning and market share in storage equipment are likely to benefit. The outlook for domestic computing power demand is also positive, with companies like Moer and Muxi expected to achieve high revenue growth in 2025. The storage sector is experiencing continuous price increases, and major companies anticipate a favorable performance trend in Q4. Structural opportunities still exist despite limited bit output next year [3][4][5]. Industry Sentiment Tracking 1. **Demand Side**: In 2026, storage price increases may constrain demand, but AI terminal innovation and computing power construction are expected to be highlights. Global smartphone sales are projected to decline by 0.9% year-on-year in 2026, with significant pressure on mid-range Android phones. The PC market saw a 9.4% year-on-year increase in global shipments in Q3 2025, but storage pressures are anticipated in 2026. The AI PC upgrade cycle is expected to start in 2026-2027. Wearable devices, particularly AI glasses, are expected to see high growth, with global sales projected to reach 7 million units in 2025 [4][5]. 2. **Inventory Side**: The inventory adjustment for power MCUs and analog DOIs is nearly complete. In Q3 2025, the average inventory of major mobile chain chip manufacturers increased, while the DOI for overseas manufacturers decreased. PC chain chip manufacturers saw an increase in inventory and DOI [5]. 3. **Supply Side**: Global wafer fab capital expenditures are expected to continue growing in 2026, with both advanced and mature process expansions anticipated in China. DRAM capital expenditures are projected to grow by 14% in 2026, while NAND capital expenditures are expected to increase by 5%. Domestic storage manufacturers are expected to continue expanding production, with market share likely to increase [5][6]. 4. **Price Side**: In Q4 2025, DRAM and NAND spot prices are expected to continue rising, with the DXI index reaching a historical high of over 380,000. The supply-demand gap for DDR4 products remains, leading to accelerated price increases for 8G and 16G products. NAND Flash products are benefiting from increased storage capacity demand from AI servers, with prices for 32G and 64G products reaching nearly four-year highs [6]. 5. **Sales Side**: Semiconductor sales are expected to continue growing, driven by AI demand. WSTS has revised the global semiconductor sales forecast for 2026 to $975.4 billion. The current semiconductor cycle has been recovering since February 2023, with global semiconductor sales in October 2025 reaching $72.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27% [6][7]. Industry Chain Tracking 1. **Design/IDM**: AI is driving demand for related chips, with a focus on computing power chips and the recovery of the sector. Nvidia's H200 sales in China have been released, and companies like Moer and Muxi are expected to achieve significant revenue growth in 2025 [7][8]. 2. **SoC and MCU**: In H2 2025, demand from domestic downstream customers is expected to slow, with a focus on future AI applications. MCU manufacturers are seeing stable revenue, while SoC companies are experiencing slowed growth due to rising storage chip prices [8]. 3. **Storage**: Major companies expect a favorable performance trend in Q4, with Taiwanese module and niche manufacturers seeing high year-on-year revenue growth in November. However, the price increases in storage may pose challenges for global terminal products [8]. 4. **Analog**: AI demand is becoming a growth engine for major manufacturers, with domestic companies increasing their focus on growth areas such as servers and robotics [9]. 5. **Power Semiconductors**: AI power demand is leading the market, with domestic power companies optimistic about trends in Q4 2025. Infineon has raised its AI data center business revenue guidance for FY26 to €1.5 billion [11]. 6. **Foundry**: Demand for advanced processes remains strong, while mature processes are experiencing a mild recovery. Domestic companies like SMIC and Huahong are currently facing supply shortages [12]. 7. **Packaging and Testing**: The demand for advanced packaging is expected to remain optimistic in 2026, with a focus on domestic computing power and storage demand [12]. 8. **Equipment, Materials, and Components**: Domestic storage manufacturers are expected to continue expanding production, benefiting equipment companies with strong market positions. The semiconductor equipment market is expected to grow, with domestic technology levels improving [13].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced continuous fluctuations and adjustments over the past month, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 2.63%, approximately 700 points [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 4.58%, over 400 points, while the Hang Seng Technology Index dropped by 4.83%, nearly 300 points [1] - Notable declines in technology stocks include NIO down 17%, Hua Hong Semiconductor down 15%, SMIC down 12%, and Li Auto down 10% [1] Fundraising and Investment Trends - Since early October, 15 Hong Kong-themed new funds have chosen to end their fundraising early, particularly technology-themed ETFs that rapidly increased stock positions after establishment [3] - Institutional investors share a consensus on the undervaluation of Hong Kong stocks and are actively seizing the opportunity presented by market corrections [4] Market Adjustment Factors - The adjustment in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to a combination of internal and external factors, with the Hang Seng Index down 5.85% and the Hang Seng Technology Index down 18.01% from October 3 to December 19 [5] - Key factors include fluctuations in liquidity expectations due to hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials, which have weakened interest rate cut expectations and affected global capital flows [6] - Concerns over the "AI bubble" in the U.S. have also impacted the Hong Kong technology sector [7] - Increased IPO activity has created significant pressure on the capital market, with over HKD 100 billion raised since the new IPO regulations were implemented [7] - A notable slowdown in southbound capital inflows has been observed, with the 10-day moving average dropping from an average of HKD 7 billion to below HKD 1 billion [7] Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, institutions maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, identifying structural investment opportunities [8] - Predictions indicate a "slow bull" market for Hong Kong stocks in 2026, with attractive valuation ratios and improving liquidity conditions as southbound and overseas capital returns [9] - Key investment themes for 2026 include technology and high-end manufacturing, with a focus on sectors such as computing power, semiconductors, and consumer electronics [10] - High dividend yield assets are also favored in a low-interest-rate environment, with institutions highlighting the value of dividend-paying stocks [10] - Opportunities in innovative pharmaceuticals and biotechnology are anticipated, driven by industry acceleration and favorable policy adjustments [10] - Traditional consumer and pharmaceutical sectors may see valuation recovery, as they are currently undervalued and could benefit from policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [11]