Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The report indicates that the global excavator market is entering a new upward cycle, with overseas excavator sales recovering from -15% in January 2025 to +14% in October 2025. The recovery point of the cycle has arrived, with major growth regions including the US, Western Europe, Japan, and Asia-Pacific experiencing acceleration in demand [18][20]. - Chinese companies have successfully established a presence in overseas markets, with their market share in Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Russian-speaking regions exceeding 30% by 2024, and over 5% in Europe and North America [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of tailored strategies for different markets, highlighting Japan, the US, and Asia-Pacific as key areas for in-depth analysis [20]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The global excavator market is experiencing a new upward cycle, with significant recovery in sales and demand across various regions [18]. Long-Cycle Perspective on Global Market Differences - Mature markets show relatively stable demand, while emerging markets exhibit greater volatility. The global earthmoving machinery sales have increased from 450,000 units in 2000 to an estimated 1,170,000 units in 2024 [25]. - The report categorizes the global market into four types: emerging markets (India), semi-mature markets (China), mature markets (Europe and North America), and stock markets (Japan) [26]. Japan Market: Stock Market and Demand Growth - Japan's construction machinery market has stabilized after experiencing significant downturns, with a focus on replacement cycles rather than new demand. The report notes that even during economic downturns, the decline in excavator ownership was less severe than the drop in construction investment [60][67]. US Market: High Value and Market Barriers - The US market is characterized by long-term upward demand driven by insufficient equipment stock and ongoing investments in residential and non-residential sectors. The report discusses the potential for Chinese companies to penetrate the US market by leveraging their competitive advantages [60]. Belt and Road Initiative: Potential Market Space - The Belt and Road Initiative is identified as a key area for growth, with demand driven by mining and infrastructure projects. The report highlights the potential for Chinese companies to increase their market share in these regions [60]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Hengli Hydraulic, indicating strong growth potential in the excavator market [20].

Group 1 - The engineering machinery sector increased by 1.69% on December 30, with Weiman Sealing leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3965.12, showing no change, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.49% to 13604.07 [1] - Weiman Sealing's stock price rose by 11.35% to 37.08, with a trading volume of 184,900 shares and a transaction value of 678 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Major stocks in the engineering machinery sector included Hengli Hydraulic, which increased by 4.40% to 112.96, with a transaction value of 1.918 billion yuan [1] - Other notable performers included Shaoyang Hydraulic (+4.08%), Shantui (+3.47%), and Zhejiang Dingli (+2.75%) [1] - The sector saw a net inflow of 610 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 404 million yuan [2][3] Group 3 - The main fund inflows were led by Yichong Heavy Industry with a net inflow of 257 million yuan, representing 16.30% of its trading volume [3] - Hengli Hydraulic also saw significant main fund inflows of 245 million yuan, but retail investors withdrew 221 million yuan [3] - The overall trend indicates a mixed sentiment among retail and institutional investors within the engineering machinery sector [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - LiuGong's excavator business has achieved a significant milestone with the production of its 10,000th excavator, marking a historic high in annual output and reflecting the company's strategic direction and collaborative efforts with suppliers and employees [2][3][5]. Group 1: Company Achievements - LiuGong's excavator business has successfully implemented flexible and intelligent production for a full range of 13-200 ton products, surpassing an annual output of 10,000 units [3]. - The company aims to continue its strategic focus on "strengthening fundamentals and improving quality and efficiency" while pursuing its goal of becoming a global high-value brand [3][5]. - The smart factory for excavators officially commenced production in November 2023, integrating advanced technologies such as robotics, AI, and IoT to enhance production efficiency and resource utilization [7]. Group 2: Leadership and Team Efforts - LiuGong's leadership has praised the performance of the excavator business, emphasizing the collective effort of employees and partners in achieving this milestone [5]. - The manufacturing team has demonstrated resilience under pressure from increased orders and material shortages, embodying the company's spirit of "striving for excellence" [5]. - The technical and marketing teams have effectively collaborated to ensure product quality and drive market growth both domestically and internationally [5]. Group 3: Industry Context - The excavator industry is showing signs of recovery, with improved operating rates and a significant increase in exports, indicating a potential rebound in domestic demand [8][9]. - The industry is transitioning to the "National IV" emission standards starting December 1, which may impact production and sales dynamics [9]. - Caterpillar is nearing a cyclical turning point, having downgraded its rating to "neutral," reflecting broader market conditions [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic engineering machinery sector, with a strategic goal to achieve revenue of 60 billion yuan by 2030, focusing on comprehensive solutions, full automation, and internationalization [7][29]. - The company has experienced a significant recovery in the domestic market, with a 21.5% year-on-year growth in excavator sales in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by infrastructure projects and equipment renewal policies [7][9]. - The mixed-ownership reform has revitalized the company's operational vitality, leading to a 52.9% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, indicating a shift towards high-quality growth [9][31]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 30,063 million, 34,258 million, 39,887 million, and 45,801 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.2%, 14.0%, 16.4%, and 14.8% [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1,327 million, 1,627 million, 2,237 million, and 2,773 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 52.9%, 22.6%, 37.5%, and 24.0% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.65, 0.80, 1.10, and 1.36 yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [3]. Business Overview - The company has established a comprehensive product system covering various machinery types, including excavators, loaders, and industrial vehicles, with a global presence in over 180 countries [14][16]. - The company has implemented a "three major growth curves" strategy, focusing on stabilizing its core earth-moving machinery business, accelerating growth in emerging sectors, and enhancing its international presence [7][29]. - The company is transitioning from a product-centric approach to a customer-centric model, providing integrated solutions that encompass the entire lifecycle of equipment [30]. Market Performance - The company has seen a significant increase in overseas revenue, which accounted for 46.9% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, serving as a stabilizing force against domestic market fluctuations [7][34]. - The company’s profitability has improved, with a gross margin stabilizing above 22% and a net margin increasing from 2.44% in 2022 to 4.93% in the first three quarters of 2025 [36]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched a convertible bond issuance to fund smart manufacturing and production upgrades, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and risk resilience [27]. - The mixed-ownership reform has led to a diversified shareholding structure, which is expected to facilitate further integration of resources and innovation [19][21]. Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 60 billion yuan by 2030, with a focus on increasing the international revenue share to over 60% and improving net profit margins [29]. - The strategic emphasis on electric and high-margin products is expected to enhance competitiveness and profitability in the face of domestic price pressures [36].

公 司 研 究 混改效果持续体现，收入和净利润维持增长 柳工(000528) 公司 2026 年年度财务预算议案点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 赵靖博(分析师) | 021-23185625 | zhaojingbo@gtht.com | S0880525040056 | 本报告导读： 目前挖机内销温和复苏，海外销售结构性改善，公司智能化、电动化、全球化布局 完善，混改效果突出，业绩有望持续释放。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 27,519 | 30,063 | 34,368 | 39,305 | 43,184 | | (+/-)% | 3.9% | 9.2 ...

柳工(000528)12月29日在分析师会议上表示，2025年公司矿山业务受煤炭价格下行的影响，国内矿山开 工不足，导致收入、毛利率增速不及预期。随着全球矿产品价格持续回暖，市场需求稳步恢复，以及公 司强化研发力度，超大型、智慧型矿山产品落地，升级后的全面解决方案推向市场，2026年起矿山业务 预计将迎来恢复性增长。矿山业务是公司"十五五"战略重点突破的关键业务，公司未来将加强与国内外 大型矿山企业建立长期战略合作，并投入更多资源推动市场开拓和战略落地，将矿山业务打造成为装载 机、挖掘机后的第三大核心业务。 ...

Core Viewpoint - LiuGong Machinery held an analyst meeting on December 29, 2025, discussing its 2026 operational plans, overseas market strategies, and key business developments with 122 participating institutions and analysts [1][2]. Group 1: 2026 Operational Plans - LiuGong Machinery plans to significantly increase R&D and marketing investments in 2026, focusing on long-term strategic implementation and enhancing global competitiveness [3]. - The company expects improved asset quality in 2026 due to asset disposals in 2025, leading to a substantial reduction in impairment provisions [3]. Group 2: Overseas Market Strategy - LiuGong Machinery aims for balanced development across nine overseas regions, with historical highs in revenue, sales, and profits in the first three quarters of 2025 [4]. - The company plans to increase resource investment in overseas markets in 2026, targeting high-quality growth and outperforming the industry [4]. Group 3: Mining Machinery Business - The mining machinery segment is a key focus for LiuGong's "14th Five-Year Plan," with expectations for recovery in 2026 due to rising global mineral prices and market demand [5]. - LiuGong aims to establish mining machinery as its third core business after loaders and excavators, enhancing partnerships with major mining companies [5]. Group 4: Agricultural Machinery Business - LiuGong positions its agricultural machinery segment as a strategic emerging business, which, despite its smaller size, has significant growth potential and can mitigate cyclical risks from the main business [6]. - The company is currently not assessing agricultural machinery performance but aims to enhance product technology and quality [6]. Group 5: Share Buyback and Global Manufacturing Capacity - LiuGong has implemented two phases of share buybacks totaling approximately 55.23 million shares for future employee incentive plans [7]. - The company is advancing its global manufacturing layout, with ongoing projects in South Asia and Indonesia expected to be operational in the coming years [8].

Group 1: Financial Goals and Performance - The company's net profit margin target for 2025 is set to increase by over 1 percentage point, while the target for 2026 is adjusted to over 0.5 percentage points, balancing practicality and ambition [2][3] - The company anticipates significant challenges in achieving the 2025 profit margin growth due to intense domestic competition and impairment provisions [3] Group 2: Overseas Market Strategy - The company has a balanced revenue distribution across nine overseas regions, with overall income, sales, and profits reaching new highs in the first three quarters [3][4] - The overseas construction machinery market is expected to see positive growth in 2026, with the company planning to increase resource investment in overseas markets [4] Group 3: Mining Machinery Outlook - The mining business is projected to recover starting in 2026, driven by rising global mineral prices and enhanced product offerings [4] - The company aims to establish long-term strategic partnerships with major mining enterprises to strengthen its market position [4] Group 4: Agricultural Machinery Development - The agricultural machinery sector is positioned as a strategic emerging business, with plans to enhance product technology and quality [5] - The company has initiated small-scale sales of high-power tractors and expects to launch them in larger volumes starting in 2026 [5] Group 5: Shareholder Incentives - The company has repurchased approximately 55.23 million shares for a new round of equity incentives or employee stock ownership plans [6] - A detailed incentive plan is being developed, pending approval from regulatory authorities [6] Group 6: Global Production Capacity - The company is enhancing its global production capacity, with ongoing projects in South Asia and Indonesia expected to be operational in the coming years [8] - Plans for low-cost manufacturing overseas are in place to mitigate risks from geopolitical tensions and trade disputes [8]

Core Viewpoint - Guangxi Liugong Machinery Co., Ltd. has launched Smart Butler 2.0, leveraging AI for equipment lifecycle management, driving the industry's intelligent transformation [1] Group 1: Industry Transformation - The construction machinery industry is accelerating its transition towards high-end, intelligent, and green solutions, with increasing customer demands for precision and efficiency in equipment operation [1] - Liugong is evolving from a traditional equipment manufacturer to a provider of smart green equipment and technical solutions, enhancing its production capabilities and order intake [1] Group 2: Smart Manufacturing Enhancements - Liugong's intelligent factory features advanced automation, including robotic arms and automated guided vehicles (AGVs), significantly improving safety, product quality, work environment, and production efficiency [2] - The factory has achieved a production efficiency increase of 27% and a capacity increase of 18% due to the implementation of smart manufacturing solutions [3] Group 3: Market Performance - In the first half of the year, Liugong's domestic sales of new energy equipment grew by over 260%, with the company holding the top market share in electric loaders [3] - International sales in the first half of the year nearly matched the total sales of the previous year, with a growth of over 200%, particularly in high-end markets like Europe [3] Group 4: Customer-Centric Innovations - Liugong developed a dual-function electric loader for an Indian client, showcasing its commitment to customer needs and problem-solving capabilities [4] - The company emphasizes a principle of addressing challenges directly and efficiently, leading to improved product performance and customer satisfaction [6] Group 5: Commitment to Electrification and Automation - Liugong has delivered over 40 electric devices to a major client, enhancing production support and green logistics [6] - The company is focused on integrating electrification, intelligence, and automation technologies, establishing a comprehensive electric product line to meet diverse operational needs [6][7] Group 6: Global Competitive Strategy - Liugong aims to strengthen its position in high-end markets by offering a series of intelligent, digital, and lifecycle cost-optimized products, enhancing after-sales support for improved customer service [7] - The company is committed to building a sustainable ecosystem for electrification through global collaboration and innovative marketing strategies [7]

Core Viewpoint - LiuGong's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a recent decline of 3.09% and a year-to-date increase of 3.61%, indicating mixed investor sentiment and market performance [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - LiuGong's stock price as of December 29 is 12.22 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 24.863 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, LiuGong's stock has increased by 3.61%, with a recent 5-day decline of 0.33%, a 20-day increase of 1.50%, and a 60-day increase of 14.42% [2]. - The company has appeared on the trading leaderboard once this year, with a net buy of -608.31 million CNY on July 22 [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, LiuGong reported a revenue of 25.760 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.71%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.458 billion CNY, up 10.37% year-on-year [2]. - Since its A-share listing, LiuGong has distributed a total of 5.102 billion CNY in dividends, with 1.122 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, LiuGong had 100,800 shareholders, an increase of 26.20% from the previous period, with an average of 20,140 circulating shares per shareholder, down 20.29% [2]. - The second-largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 80.2894 million shares, an increase of 14.2355 million shares from the previous period [3].