编号：2024-011 证券代码：002028.SZ 证券简称：思源电气 思源电气股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-----------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------| | | ■特定对象调研 | □分析师会议 | □媒体采访 | | 投资者关系活 动类别 | □业绩说明会 | □新闻发布会 | □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | □其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | | 参与单位名称 | | | 兴全基金、工银安盛、浙商电新、翰潭投资、民生通惠资管、弘盛资本等 | | 及人员姓名 | | | | | 时间 | 2024 年 10 月 30 日 | 09:30-11:00 | | | 地点 | 公司会议室 | | | | 上市公司接待 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has sufficient orders on hand, and its profitability continues to improve. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.407 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.28%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.491 billion yuan, up 29.88% year-on-year [1] - The revenue structure has been optimized, leading to improved profitability. The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 31.42%, an increase of 1.31 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 14.60%, up 0.76 percentage points year-on-year. This improvement in profitability is likely due to the increased contribution from overseas markets [1] - The company plans to invest 300 million yuan in a high-voltage GIS production base, with ongoing projects totaling 460 million yuan as of Q3 2024, primarily for the construction of a medium-voltage switchgear production base and a new energy company base in Jiangsu [1] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 10.407 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.491 billion yuan. The revenue for Q3 2024 alone was 4.241 billion yuan, with a net profit of 604 million yuan [1] - The company expects to benefit from domestic investment growth and overseas demand for new and upgraded equipment. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 2.085 billion yuan, 2.541 billion yuan, and 3.068 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28.7, 23.5, and 19.5 [1][2] - The company's cash flow from operating activities is projected to be 920 million yuan in 2024, with net profits expected to reach 2.178 billion yuan [4] Comparable Company Valuation - The company is compared with peers such as Guodian NARI, China XD Electric, and XJ Electric, with its current valuation slightly above the industry average. The average P/E ratio for comparable companies is 44.9 for 2022A and 35.7 for 2023A, while the company's P/E ratios are 49.0 and 38.3 for the same years [3][2]

沪深 300 6.0% 15.7% 10.2% 2024 年 10 月 29 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 李航 S0350521120006 lih11@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 王刚 S0350524020001 wangg06@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 公司业绩同比稳健增长，出海业务有望持续 贡献增长动能 ——思源电气（002028）2024 年三季报点评 最近一年走势 事件: 思源电气 2024 年 10 月 26 日发布 2024 年三季度报告：2024 年前三季 度，公司实现营收 104 亿元，同比+21%；归母净利润 14.9 亿元，同比 +30%；扣非归母净利润 14.1 亿元，同比+27%；销售毛利率 31.4%，同 比+1.3pct；销售净利率 14.6%，同比+0.8pct。 其中，2024Q3，营收 42.4 亿元，同比+29%，环比+21%；归母净利润 6.0 亿元，同比+35%，环比+15%；扣非归母净利润 5.6 亿元，同比+31%， 环比+13%；销售毛利率 31.0%，同比-0.8pct，环比-1.6pct；销 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [1][3]. Core Views - The company has reported a slight revenue and profit increase in Q3 2024, with total revenue reaching 10.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 21.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.49 billion yuan, up 29.9% year-on-year [1]. - The company is experiencing rapid growth in overseas markets, particularly in transformer demand driven by global renewable energy developments [3]. - The company plans to invest 300 million yuan in expanding its GIS production capacity, which is expected to enhance its market competitiveness and support future revenue growth [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.41 billion yuan, a 21.3% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.49 billion yuan, up 29.9% [1]. - In Q3 2024 alone, revenue was 4.24 billion yuan, reflecting a 29.4% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 600 million yuan, a 35% increase [1]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 31.4%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 14.6%, up 0.8 percentage points [2]. - The company’s Q3 2024 gross margin was 31%, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, but the net margin improved to 14.7%, up 0.6 percentage points [2]. Capacity Expansion and Market Opportunities - The company announced plans for a 300 million yuan investment in a new GIS production facility, expected to be completed within 12 months, which will support future sales growth [2]. - The demand for transformers in overseas markets is expected to remain strong, with the company benefiting from a significant portion of its orders coming from international markets [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 16.01 billion yuan, 19.35 billion yuan, and 22.78 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 33.9%, 25%, and 19.1% [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Siyuan Electric [1][18] Core Views - The net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 29.88% year-on-year from Q1 to Q3 in 2024, indicating a significant recovery in performance [14][18] - The company achieved revenue of 10.41 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, up 21.28% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.491 billion yuan, up 29.88% year-on-year [14][18] - The report highlights a strong performance in Q3 2024, with revenue of 4.241 billion yuan, an increase of 29.39% year-on-year, and net profit of 604 million yuan, up 35% year-on-year [14][18] Financial Performance - The company's expense ratio was 14.17% in Q3 2024, a slight increase of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 31.42%, up 4.37 percentage points year-on-year [15][16] - The net profit margin improved to 14.60%, an increase of 5.46 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting enhanced profitability [15][16] Research and Development - R&D investment in the first three quarters of 2024 was 735 million yuan, up 17.12% year-on-year, with a R&D expense ratio of 7.06% [16][18] - The company holds 869 authorized patents, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year, and is investing in forward-looking technologies such as energy storage and IoT [16][18] Overseas Business Expansion - The overseas market achieved revenue of 1.515 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.04%, accounting for 24.56% of total revenue [17][18] - The company has established a presence in various international markets, including Europe and Latin America, and has received certifications in over 10 countries [17][18] Profit Forecast and Target Price - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is set at 14.82 billion yuan, 17.56 billion yuan, and 20.70 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 2.02 billion yuan, 2.54 billion yuan, and 3.10 billion yuan [18] - The target price has been increased from 72.27 yuan per share to 88.47 yuan per share based on the DCF model [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price based on the last closing price of 74.16 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company has shown continuous high growth in performance, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024. Revenue reached 10.41 billion, up 21.3% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.49 billion, up 29.9% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company has a strong order backlog, indicated by the growth in advance payments and contract liabilities, which increased by 68.9% and 50.7% respectively compared to the beginning of the year [3]. - The company is actively investing in capacity expansion and new product development, with a notable increase in construction projects and plans to establish a new GIS production base in Jiangsu Province [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.24 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.9%. The net profit for Q3 was 592 million, up 32.1% year-on-year and 12.9% quarter-on-quarter [2][3]. Profitability - The gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters of 2024 were 31.4% and 14.6%, respectively, showing improvements compared to the previous year [3]. Capacity and Product Development - The company has significantly increased its investment in new products, particularly in medium-voltage switches and high-voltage GIS, with construction projects growing by 327.8% since the beginning of the year [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 20% and an order growth of 25% for the full year 2024. Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 16.56 billion, 20.48 billion, and 25.15 billion, with corresponding net profits of 2.13 billion, 2.61 billion, and 3.24 billion [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 10.407 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.28%, and a net profit of 1.491 billion yuan, up 29.88% year-on-year [2]. - The company is accelerating the construction of its production bases, with significant investments planned for a high-voltage intelligent switchgear (GIS) production base, totaling 300 million yuan [3]. - The financial outlook for 2024-2026 shows expected revenue growth rates of 20.8%, 20.2%, and 19.6%, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 30.3%, 24.2%, and 22.7% [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 31.42%, an increase of 1.32 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 14.6%, up 0.76 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company’s operating expenses were well-managed, with a total expense ratio of 14.50%, a slight increase of 0.33 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The forecast for total revenue in 2024 is 15.046 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 2.032 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 30.3% [4][6].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电网设备 思源电气（002028） 2024 年三季报点评：Q3 国内外交付节奏加 快，业绩略超预期 2024 年 10 月 28 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 10537 | 12460 | 15128 | 18155 | 21926 | | 同比（ % ） | 21.18 | 18.25 | 21.41 | 20.01 | 20.77 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1221 | 1559 | 2065 | 2586 | 3053 | | 同比（ % ） | 1.91 | 27.75 | 32.43 | 25.22 | 18.08 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 1.57 | 2.01 | 2.66 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/机械工业/电气设备 证券研究报告 思源电气（002028）公司季报点评 2024 年 10 月 27 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | 股票数据 | | | 10 [ Table_StockInfo 月 25 日收盘价（元） ] | 74.16 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 47.25-80.71 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | 776/605 | | 总市值 / 流通市值（百万元） | 57570/44846 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《海外收入快速增长，盈利能力持续提升》 | | | 2024.08.22 | | 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -17.82% -2.82% 12.18% 27.18% 42.18% 57.18% 2023/10 2024/1 2024 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][12][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.41 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.49 billion RMB, up 29.9% year-on-year [2]. - The company is investing 300 million RMB in a new high-voltage intelligent switchgear production base, which is expected to support market expansion and meet future capacity demands [2]. - The company has a strong position in the domestic market, with significant shares in various segments of the power equipment sector, maintaining leading positions in bids for key projects [3]. - The overseas business has seen substantial growth, with contract liabilities increasing by 98% year-on-year to 2.24 billion RMB, reflecting a robust order backlog [4]. - Profitability metrics are improving, with a gross margin of 31.4% and a net margin of 14.6%, attributed to a higher proportion of overseas revenue [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.24 billion RMB, a 29.4% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 600 million RMB, up 34.9% [2]. - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters was 31.4%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 14.6% [5]. Market Position - The company has maintained a leading market share in various segments, with bid amounts for combination electrical equipment, circuit breakers, and isolators at 10.8%, 20.5%, and 15.7% respectively [3]. - The domestic power grid investment has accelerated, with a 21.1% year-on-year increase in national grid project investments [3]. Growth Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 15.61 billion RMB, 19.19 billion RMB, and 23.53 billion RMB, with expected growth rates of 25%, 23%, and 23% respectively [5]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 2.06 billion RMB, 2.56 billion RMB, and 3.13 billion RMB, with growth rates of 32%, 24%, and 23% respectively [5].