Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights that the recent volatility in gold and silver prices is primarily driven by market momentum reversals, with silver attracting high leverage and speculative funds since November 2025 [2][5] - The report anticipates that after the appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, there will be more interest rate cuts than the market expects, with short-term U.S. Treasury yields likely to decline [2][4] - The report notes that the recent decline in the manufacturing PMI does not indicate a weakening economy, as it reflects a temporary fluctuation rather than a downward trend [10] Group 2: Commodity Market Analysis - The report indicates that the recent crash in silver prices has led to liquidity risks that may spread to other commodities, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector [5][6] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the support levels for gold prices, particularly the 60-day moving average, which is currently at $4,400 per ounce [5] - The report suggests that the Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented measures to manage the risk of a one-sided market in silver futures [5] Group 3: Equity Market Outlook - The report predicts a rebound in the A-share market following the Spring Festival, driven by positive sentiment from performance forecasts and new developments in sectors like AI applications and commercial aerospace [6][10] - It advises a balanced ETF allocation in domestic equities, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the market [11] Group 4: Bond Market Perspective - The report notes that the bond market is expected to see increased buying activity due to risk aversion and expectations of monetary easing, with 10-year yields projected to decline to around 1.80% [7][10] - It highlights that the recent adjustments in risk appetite have created trading opportunities in government bonds as a hedge against stock market volatility [4][7]

2月2日，思源电气涨5.02%，截至发稿，报194.08元/股，成交15.02亿元，换手率1.30%，总市值1517.82 亿元。 资料显示，思源电气股份有限公司位于上海市闵行区华宁路3399号，成立日期1993年12月2日，上市日 期2004年8月5日，公司主营业务涉及输变电设备的研发、生产、销售及服务。主营业务收入构成为：输 配电设备行业99.47%，汽车电子电器0.53%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，嘉实基金旗下1只基金重仓思源电气。嘉实瑞享定期混合（160726）四季度持有股数17.51万 股，占基金净值比例为2.52%，位居第七大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约162.49万元。 嘉实瑞享定期混合（160726）成立日期2018年8月3日，最新规模10.73亿。今年以来收益6.93%，同类排 名3276/9000；近一年收益21.36%，同类排名5215/8193；成立以来收益74.06%。 嘉实瑞享定期混合（160726）基金经理为张宇驰。 截至发稿，张宇驰累计任职时间3年112天，现任基金资产总规模10.73亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 19.03%， 任职期间最差基金回报19.03%。 声 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xinhua Intelligent Control Asia has been downgraded to Neutral due to market expectations already reflecting long-term prospects [2] Core Insights - The report highlights three major themes in the Chinese industrial sector: AI robots, AIDC power solutions, and space solar power [1] - The global humanoid robot shipment is expected to reach approximately 15,000 units by 2025, representing only 3% of the annual industrial robot shipments [3] - Significant growth is anticipated in the AIDC power sector, particularly for Chinese power solution providers, as they address urgent bottlenecks in AI infrastructure [2] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot market is still in its early stages, with major shipments coming from Chinese companies. Future growth is expected to be exponential, with delivery targets increasing to thousands or even tens of thousands of units [3] - Current technology capabilities in humanoid robots have reached 80%-90% in terms of control, with rapid product iterations occurring every 6 to 8 months [3] AIDC Power Solutions - The report emphasizes the potential for Chinese power solution providers in the AIDC sector, particularly those capable of scaling delivery and supporting the transition to 800V DC systems [1][2] - Companies like Siyi Electric are expected to see a 40% increase in overseas orders, driven by product quality and global grid upgrades [8] Tesla Optimus Robot - Tesla's Optimus robot is still in early development, with potential sales not expected until late 2027. Current stock prices may reflect these expectations, and further evidence of effective AI models is needed for price support [4][5] Gas Turbine Blade Suppliers - INL, a gas turbine blade supplier, is positioned to benefit from power shortages and OEM capacity constraints, with a projected revenue CAGR of 25% by 2030 [6][7] Market Opportunities in Space Solar Power - The report discusses potential opportunities in space solar power, particularly with Tesla and SpaceX's plans to increase solar capacity significantly, which could benefit Chinese photovoltaic companies [13] Other Companies - KOSTA, a leading UPS supplier, is expected to see a 60% increase in net profit by 2025, driven by significant orders from the U.S. AI data center supply chain [9][10] - MKM is transitioning into the global AI server power market but faces execution challenges and is rated Neutral due to high valuation and recent losses [11][12]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **grid and electrical equipment** sector, particularly in the context of global investment trends and structural demand drivers across regions including **China, ASEAN, the US, and the EU** [2][3][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Structural Upcycle**: Analysts believe the current upcycle in grid equipment is structural rather than cyclical, supported by high manufacturing utilization and multi-year order visibility across **APAC** [3][10]. - **Investment Needs**: Global grid investment reached approximately **$450 billion** in 2025, but this is still below the estimated **$1 trillion** needed annually by 2050 to meet demand [4]. - **Aging Infrastructure**: About **45%** of global grid assets are over **20 years old**, with significant replacement needs emerging, particularly in the US where the average transformer is around **40 years old** [4][10]. - **OEM Backlogs**: Equipment suppliers are experiencing unprecedented demand, with average selling prices for transformers increasing by approximately **75%** since 2019, and high-voltage cable costs nearly doubling [5][10]. Regional Developments - **China**: The 15th Five-Year Plan mandates a record investment of **RMB 4 trillion** by 2030, a **40%** increase from previous plans, focusing on high-voltage expansion to support renewable energy [7]. - **ASEAN**: Leaders have agreed to accelerate the ASEAN Power Grid, aiming to double cross-border capacity by 2040, supported by an **$800 billion** financing initiative [7]. - **US**: Federal programs, including a **$65 billion** grid modernization fund, are pushing utilities to enhance and expand networks [7]. - **Europe**: The European Commission has introduced a new Grid Package requiring **€584 billion** in transmission investment by 2030 [7]. Capacity and Constraints - Manufacturing capacity for grid equipment is tight across APAC, with Japan operating at nearly **100%** utilization. Expansion plans are in place, but skilled labor shortages and input constraints remain significant challenges [12]. - Orderbooks are strong, particularly in Korea, where companies report **30%** year-over-year growth in orderbooks, with lead times extending to **3-4 years** [13]. Pricing Dynamics - Anticipated price increases in China due to potential tariff adjustments in the 2026 regulatory cycle are expected to support average selling price hikes and margin expansion [14]. - Japan's Hitachi aims to increase EBITDA margins from **13-15%** to **16-20%** by FY30, indicating a focus on disciplined pricing and higher-value products [14]. Demand Drivers - Demand is driven by a multi-year structural grid upgrade cycle across APAC, with significant needs for replacement and modernization of aging infrastructure, as well as the integration of digital automation and smart grid technologies [15][16]. Investment Recommendations - Companies positioned at the core of structural grid equipment demands, such as **NARI Technology**, **Hitachi**, and **Hyundai Electric**, are highlighted as key beneficiaries of the ongoing investment cycle [18][19]. - NARI Technology is particularly noted for its alignment with China's domestic grid investment priorities, with expectations of sustained pricing uplift and market share gains [18]. Conclusion - The combination of aging infrastructure, rising demand from renewable energy, and the need for modernization and digitalization in grid systems suggests a robust growth outlook for the grid equipment sector across APAC, with favorable pricing power and earnings durability anticipated [10][11].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on China's power grid equipment sector, with a bullish outlook on grid capital expenditure (CAPEX) growth, projected at an 11% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for 2026-2030, up from a previous estimate of 9% [2][10][13]. Core Insights and Arguments - **CAPEX Growth Drivers**: - The State Grid's Rmb4 trillion investment plan under the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) indicates a 7% CAPEX CAGR [3][15]. - Historical data shows that actual grid investments during previous FYPs exceeded initial targets by 2-18%, suggesting potential for similar outcomes in the future [3][15]. - Structural factors such as electrification, energy security, and the integration of renewables are increasing the urgency for grid reinforcement [7][20]. - **Pricing Upside**: - Anticipated increases in transmission and distribution (T&D) tariffs starting in 2026 could enhance grid economics, with each Rmb0.01/kWh increase potentially generating Rmb634 billion in pre-tax profit over the 2026-2030 period, equating to 14% of total grid CAPEX during the 15th FYP [3][20]. - **Earnings Revisions**: - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised from -31% to +18%, reflecting stronger volume outlooks and improved pricing [4][32]. - NARI Technology is highlighted as a top pick, with expected earnings growth of 22% CAGR, driven by its alignment with State Grid's CAPEX growth [4][32]. Key Companies and Their Performance - **NARI Technology (600406.SS)**: - Price target raised from Rmb28.00 to Rmb42.00, with EPS revisions indicating a 7-16% increase for 2026-2027 [32][35]. - The smart grid and energy digitalization segments are expected to drive revenue growth [33]. - **Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric (601567.SS)**: - Price target increased from Rmb30.00 to Rmb39.10, but EPS forecasts were trimmed by 25% due to weaker revenue and margins [41][44]. - The power equipment segment is expected to recover with a projected 20% YoY increase in average selling prices (ASP) in 2026 [44]. - **Willfar Information Technology (688100.SS)**: - Price target raised from Rmb45.00 to Rmb64.00, with EPS revisions up by 4% for 2026 and 11% for 2027, driven by grid investment acceleration [48]. Valuation Insights - Key power grid equipment stocks are trading at an average forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23x, below the historical average of 24x and the peak of 40x [2][28]. - Domestic-focused stocks have underperformed export-driven peers by 191 percentage points since January 2025, indicating potential for re-rating as domestic CAPEX growth becomes more apparent [7][28]. Additional Important Points - The market currently underestimates the potential for domestic grid CAPEX growth, which could lead to significant earnings upgrades and valuation re-ratings across the sector [27][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of investor positioning, which is currently skewed towards export-driven stocks, suggesting a potential rotation towards domestically focused names as CAPEX surprises materialize [7][28]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the power grid equipment sector in China, highlighting the expected growth in CAPEX, pricing dynamics, and the performance of specific companies within the industry.

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 28 January 2026 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Power Equipment Expert call takeaways on 15th FYP grid capex; Nari Tech and Sieyuan Electric our top picks in 1H26 The share prices of China po ...

2026年开年以来，中国电力设备板块表现亮眼。摩根大通1月28日发布一份研究报告，称其覆盖的电力 设备公司股价年初至今平均上涨约20%，大幅跑赢同期上证综指约5%的涨幅。 摩根大通认为，这一强劲表现背后，是超预期的电网资本开支与持续旺盛的出口需求形成的双重支撑。 随着"十五五"规划对电网投资的部署逐步明晰，特高压、配网自动化等关键领域投资加速，电力设备行 业正迎来新一轮黄金发展周期。 01 十五五电网投资蓝图明晰 摩根大通与行业专家交流确认，"十五五"期间中国电网投资将呈现加速态势，投资重点明确且增长动力 强劲。 在投资规模方面，特高压作为电网投资的核心抓手，投资额度将实现显著跃升。"十五五"期间特高压投 资将从"十四五"的3800亿元增至5000亿元以上，规划批准20条直流特高压线路和15条交流特高压线路。 其中，仅"十五五"前两年就将批准6条直流特高压线路，特高压审批速度的加快将直接拉动相关设备需 求集中释放。 投资结构上，"十五五"电网投资将聚焦三大核心领域：特高压工程、二次设备以及配网建设。具体来 看，继电保护设备、电力调度自动化系统、虚拟电厂相关系统、电力交易系统等产品需求将持续旺盛， 直流特高压线 ...

- The report primarily focuses on the investment value of the "恒生A股电网设备指数" (HSCAUPG.HI), which is a thematic index designed to reflect the performance of China's A-share listed companies in the power grid equipment sector. The index was launched on February 28, 2022, and its methodology includes selecting companies with at least 40% of their revenue derived from energy infrastructure, power equipment, industrial components, and intelligent technologies. The index is weighted by free-float market capitalization, with a cap of 10% per constituent stock[37][38][39] - The index underwent a significant revision in 2025, reducing the number of constituent stocks from 100 to 50, focusing more on downstream power grid equipment manufacturing. This adjustment enhanced the index's purity and representation of the modernization and specialization of China's power grid equipment sector[37][38][39] - The index's sectoral distribution is highly concentrated, with approximately 70% allocated to power grid equipment, 13% to communication equipment, and smaller proportions to automotive components, metal materials, wind power equipment, and other industries. This structure ensures a strong focus on the modernization of power grid infrastructure, automation, and digitalization[39][41][42] - The index's internal structure is dominated by high-tech and high-certainty segments, such as transmission and transformation equipment (31% weight) and power grid automation equipment (21% weight). These segments benefit from China's "十五五" strategic planning, which emphasizes the construction of ultra-high voltage backbone networks, upgrades to main grid systems, and the integration of renewable energy bases[39][41][43] - The index has demonstrated strong performance, with a cumulative return of 335.48% since its base date, significantly outperforming the申万电网设备行业指数 (151.41%) and the上证指数 (64.96%). It exhibits high returns, moderate volatility, and superior risk-adjusted returns, with a Sharpe ratio of 4.42 over the past year and consistently above 1.0 over longer periods[55][56][58]

| 交易日期 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 成交价格 | 成交量 | 成交金额 | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (元) | (万股/万份) | (万元) | | | | 2026-01-29 | 002028 | 思源电气 | 185.89 | 1.20 | 223.07 机构专用 | | 机构专用 | 1月29日，思源电气大宗交易成交1.2万股，成交额223.07万元，占当日总成交额的0.11%，成交价185.89元，较市场收盘价 185.89元持平。 | 权益类证券大宗交易 (协议交易) | | --- | ...

格隆汇1月28日｜华西证券研报指出，思源电气2025年业绩超预期，海外业务将持续注入增长动能。受 美国电网扩容改造&AIDC建设放量等需求驱动，美国高压设备供应紧张，电力变压器PPI指数持续上 升。国内持续加大电网相关投资，根据中国电力报公众号，"十五五"期间，国家电网公司固定资产投资 预计达到4万亿元，较"十四五"投资增长40%。该行认为，在国内电网投资的带动下，公司的国内业务 也有望实现可观增长。在全球AIDC快速发展&电网建设投资持续增长的驱动下，电力设备需求迎来景 气周期。公司作为国内输变电设备龙头企业，国内外业务表现亮眼，后续业绩有望持续增厚。维持"增 持"评级。 ...