Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][19]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a rapid profit growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 48.543 billion yuan (+7.9%) and a non-net profit of 1.64 billion yuan (+18.3%) for the year [1][9]. - The company has experienced a recovery in business volume growth, with a market share stabilizing despite significant year-on-year declines in single-package prices due to intense industry competition [2][9]. - The company has seen a rebound in capacity utilization and a significant decrease in single-package costs, although the first quarter's profitability per package has declined due to increased competition [3][17]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to have a revenue of 48.543 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9%. The non-net profit is expected to be 1.64 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.3% increase [1][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to show a revenue of 12.19 billion yuan (+9.3%) but a decline in non-net profit to 308 million yuan (-19.9%) [1][9]. Market Position - The company has adopted a relatively aggressive pricing strategy, leading to a 12.3% decrease in single-package express delivery prices for 2024. The prices for the fourth quarter and the first quarter were approximately 2.02 yuan and 1.98 yuan, respectively [2][9]. - The business volume growth for 2024 is expected to be 26.1%, with the fourth quarter and first quarter showing year-on-year increases of 22.4% and 22.9%, respectively [2][9]. Cost and Profitability - The company's core operating costs have decreased significantly, with the single-package core operating cost (transit + transportation) at 0.68 yuan, down 21.9% year-on-year. The first quarter's single-package operating cost further optimized to 0.62 yuan, a decrease of 18.4% [3][17]. - The single-package non-net profit for the fourth quarter was stable at 0.07 yuan, but it dropped to 0.05 yuan in the first quarter of 2025 due to intensified price competition [3][17]. Future Outlook - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downward, with expected net profits of 2.0 billion yuan, 2.33 billion yuan, and 2.6 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 4.7%, 16.2%, and 11.5%, respectively [4][19]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE valuation of 10X and 9X for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4][19].

Core Viewpoint - Yunda Co., Ltd. has achieved remarkable financial performance and sustainable development in 2024, driven by precise strategic planning and efficient operational management, positioning itself as a leading global comprehensive logistics service provider [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Yunda achieved a revenue of 48.543 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.92%, marking the highest revenue for the same period since its listing [1]. - The net profit reached 1.914 billion yuan, up 17.77%, maintaining growth for four consecutive years [1]. - The total express delivery volume reached 23.783 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 26.14%, exceeding the industry average growth rate by 4.64 percentage points [1]. - For Q1 2025, the total revenue was 12.189 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.26%, also the highest for the same period since listing [2]. Operational Efficiency - The company implemented a "1+N+AI" multi-layered technology strategy, enhancing its digital capabilities and operational efficiency [1]. - Total expenses for sales, management, finance, and R&D in 2024 were 1.978 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.85% year-on-year, with the cost per parcel dropping to 0.08 yuan, down 31.7% [2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 5.087 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.18% [2]. ESG Performance - Yunda has been recognized for its ESG efforts, achieving A-level ratings in both the CSI and National Securities ESG ratings in 2024 [4]. - The company reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 40.38% and energy consumption by 36.86% in 2024 [4]. - The installation of photovoltaic roofs in 19 logistics centers resulted in a solar power generation of 16.1578 million kWh, an increase of 56.57% [5]. Social Responsibility - Yunda has focused on employee development, conducting 26,900 training sessions with a total duration of 3.1648 million hours in 2024, achieving a 100% training coverage rate [6]. - The customer complaint resolution rate reached 98.09%, with customer satisfaction exceeding 98% [6]. - The company has expanded its logistics network to cover over 99.6% of county-level areas and 99.8% of town-level areas, helping farmers increase their income by over 30% [6]. Governance - Yunda has enhanced its governance framework by optimizing its internal control system and conducting third-party audits to ensure effective operation [7]. - The company engaged with 526 investors in 2024, enhancing communication and trust with stakeholders [7]. - Yunda aims to continue advancing its sustainable development strategy and strengthen its ESG governance framework [7].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that the "Rural Express" initiative and e-commerce business have become significant drivers for the growth of express delivery companies in 2024 [2][4]. Financial Performance - YTO Express reported a revenue of 69.033 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.67%, with a net profit of 4.012 billion yuan, up 7.78% [3]. - Yunda Express achieved a revenue of 48.543 billion yuan, a 7.92% increase, and a net profit of 1.914 billion yuan, up 17.77% [3]. - Shentong Express reported a revenue of 47.169 billion yuan, a 15.26% increase, and a net profit of 1.04 billion yuan, a significant rise of 205.24% [3]. - The overall express delivery business volume in China reached 1.758 billion pieces, a year-on-year growth of 21.5% [3]. Market Trends - The "Rural Express" initiative has led to the establishment of 346,000 village-level logistics service stations across the country in 2024 [4]. - The live e-commerce sector contributed significantly to the express delivery industry, with retail sales reaching 4.3 trillion yuan from January to November 2024, accounting for 80% of the e-commerce sector's growth [4]. Operational Efficiency - Companies are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with Yunda reporting a 21.91% decrease in core operating costs per ticket in 2024 [8]. - YTO Express has implemented demand-based delivery and improved delivery performance, resulting in a nearly 28% reduction in false signing rates [5]. Pricing Pressure - YTO Express experienced a decline in revenue per ticket to 2.3 yuan, a decrease of 4.86%, while the cost per ticket fell to 2.09 yuan, down 4.04% [7]. - The average price for express delivery in the industry was reported at 8.02 yuan per ticket, indicating a continuous downward trend [7]. Technological Advancements - Companies are increasingly adopting unmanned delivery technologies, with Shentong testing smart-assisted driving vehicles on express routes [9]. - YTO Express is exploring the application of autonomous driving technology to enhance transportation efficiency and reduce costs [8].

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 韵达股份(002120) 投资评级 增持 上次评级 买入 [Table_Author] 匡培钦 交运行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮 箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 秦梦鸽 交运行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524110002 邮 箱：qinmengge@cindasc.com 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 韵达股份（002120.SZ）点评：10 月业 务量同比+32%，单票收入环比小幅提 升 韵达股份（002120.SZ）2024 年中报点 评：24H1 盈利同比增长 20%，看好经营 改善 国内电商快递龙头之一，经营及件量 拐点有望延续 [Table_Title] 韵达股份（002120.SZ）点评：件量延续高 增，单票核心成本及费用持续优化 25Q1 实现营业收入 121.89 亿元，同比+9.26%，归母净利润 3.21 亿元，同 比-22.15%，扣非归母净利润 3.08 亿元，同比-19.85%。 点评： ➢ 单 ...

中邮证券有限责任公司曾凡喆近期对韵达股份（002120）进行研究并发布了研究报告《单量维持高速增长，期 待量利再平衡》，给予韵达股份买入评级。 韵达股份 l韵达股份披露2024年年报及2025年一季报 韵达股份披露2024年年报及2025年一季报。2024年公司营业收入485.4亿元，同比增长7.9%，归母净利润19.1亿 元，同比增长17.8%，其中第四季度营业收入130.3亿元，同比增长7.3%，归母净利润5.1亿元，同比增长9.8%。 2025年一季度公司营业收入121.9亿元，同比增长9.3%，实现归母净利润3.2亿元，同比下降22.1%。 l维持竞争身位，单量高速增长，营收再创新高 2024年得益于经济稳健增长及持续扩大的线上消费需求，全国快递业务量保持较高水平增速，公司业务量保持 高速增长，全年快递业务完成量237.8亿票，同比增长26.1%，市场份额保持行业第三。2025年一季度公司快递 业务完成量60.8亿票，同比增长22.9%，保持上升势头。因快递市场下沉及行业竞争，公司快递业务单票收入 同比有所下降，2024年为2.01元，同比下降12.3%，2025年一季度为1.98元，同比下降10.0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [6][13]. Core Views - The company has shown strong growth in parcel volume, with a 26.1% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume in 2024, maintaining the third-largest market share in the industry [4]. - Despite the high growth in parcel volume, the average revenue per parcel has decreased, with a 12.3% decline in 2024 and a 10.0% decline in the first quarter of 2025 [4]. - The company has effectively controlled costs, achieving a 13% reduction in per-parcel costs in 2024, with significant decreases in various expense ratios [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from the integration of artificial intelligence in its operations, enhancing service quality and cost control, leading to a potential balance between volume and profit in the future [6]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 48.54 billion yuan, a 7.9% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.91 billion yuan, up 17.8% [3][9]. - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 54.67 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.03 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 12.6% and 6.1% respectively [9][12]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.66 yuan in 2024 to 0.70 yuan in 2025 [9][12].

Summary of Yunda Express Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yunda Express (韵达股份) - **Industry**: Express Delivery and Logistics Key Points Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the profit per ticket decreased by approximately 1.8 cents year-on-year, primarily due to non-operating factors (such as sorting optimization costs and asset provisions) and market price competition, with non-operating factors contributing about 1 cent to the decline [2][3] - Operating cash flow in Q1 2025 fell by 63% year-on-year, mainly due to relaxed prepayment requirements for franchisees and reduced collection standards to support franchisee operations [2][9] Capital Expenditure - Total capital expenditure for 2024 is projected to be around 2.4 billion yuan, with a slight decrease to about 2 billion yuan in 2025, focusing on equipment maintenance, vehicle replenishment, and personnel R&D [2][4][6] - Capital expenditure will be concentrated in the second half of the year, especially in Q4, with approximately 40% allocated to new project payments [6][5] Cost Management - The average cost per ticket is expected to continue decreasing in 2025, with a projected decline of about 9%, bringing the average cost to around 0.62 yuan [2][8] - Technological applications, such as automation and unmanned vehicles, are anticipated to further reduce last-mile delivery costs by 0.2 to 0.3 yuan [2][8] Market Competition - The competitive landscape remains intense in 2025, with some regions experiencing aggressive price competition, although overall market price competition is expected to be predictable and manageable [4][11][12] - The company maintains a neutral to optimistic outlook on price competition, emphasizing the importance of balancing market share and profitability [11][12] Operational Efficiency - The company's capacity utilization is currently between 80% and 85%, with expectations to increase by 5 to 10 percentage points by year-end [15][16] - The company is focusing on enhancing its operational capabilities and efficiency through technology and infrastructure improvements, including the grid warehouse project, which aims to increase automation across its network [14][17] Strategic Focus - Yunda Express is prioritizing cost control, cash flow management, and leveraging technological advancements to optimize service efficiency and cost capabilities [17] - The company aims to enhance its market competitiveness while maintaining gross margins, indicating a strong recovery to pre-pandemic levels in terms of volume, cost management, and cash flow [17] Miscellaneous - The company has seen a resurgence in its scatter business, with a current scale of approximately 3.5 million pieces, indicating growth potential compared to previous quarters [13] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's financial performance, strategic initiatives, and market outlook.

Core Viewpoint - Yunda Co., Ltd. reported a strong performance in 2024, with significant growth in business volume and net profit, despite facing intense competition and regulatory challenges in the express delivery industry [1][3][9]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Yunda achieved a total business volume of 23.783 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 26.14% [1][3]. - The company generated operating revenue of 48.543 billion yuan, up 7.92% from the previous year [1][3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.914 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 17.77% [1][3]. - The profit margin improved, with total profit amounting to 2.613 billion yuan, a 19.52% increase year-on-year [3]. Competitive Landscape - Yunda maintained its position as the "third" player in the Tongda system, despite fierce competition from Shentong and Jitu [1][9]. - The company faced regulatory scrutiny from the State Post Bureau due to issues related to advertising materials in express deliveries [1][9]. - Yunda's single parcel revenue decreased by 12.3% to 2.01 yuan, which is among the lowest in the Tongda system [3][4]. Cost Management - Yunda reported a significant reduction in operational costs, with single parcel costs decreasing by 13% to approximately 1.83 yuan [3][4]. - The core operating cost per parcel was 0.68 yuan, down 21.9% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company implemented measures such as precise cargo forecasting and optimization of transportation routes to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [4]. Technological Advancements - Yunda is actively investing in AI and unmanned technologies, having deployed the DeepSeek model for operational data analysis [2][7]. - The company aims to enhance service quality and operational efficiency through a multi-layered technology strategy, integrating AI into various operational aspects [7][8]. - Despite a decrease in R&D investment to 293 million yuan, the company remains optimistic about the application of new technologies in the logistics sector [8]. Infrastructure and Network Expansion - By the end of 2024, Yunda established 73 optimized transfer centers and had over 47,750 first-level franchisees, achieving 100% franchise coverage [4]. - The company’s service network covers 31 provinces and municipalities, with over 95,000 end-point facilities [4]. Shareholder Changes - Alibaba reduced its stake in Yunda from 2% to 0.71% over the past year, indicating a shift in investment strategy [5].

Group 1: Smartphone Market - Xiaomi has regained the top position in the Chinese smartphone market after ten years, with a shipment of 13.3 million units and a market share of 18.6%, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.9% [2] - Huawei shipped 11.2 million units with a market share of 15.7%, showing a year-on-year increase of 10% [2] - Apple experienced a decline, shipping 9.8 million units and a market share of 13.7%, down 10% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Corporate Developments - Apple is restructuring its teams, moving its robotics team to the hardware department, indicating dissatisfaction with its AI and machine learning leadership [3] - Cyberspace Group has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with joint sponsors being CICC and China Galaxy International [4] - Warner Pharmaceuticals has received approval for its bismuth potassium citrate granules, which will enhance its market competitiveness [12] Group 3: Financial Performance - CICC reported a net profit of 2.042 billion yuan for Q1, a year-on-year increase of 64.85%, with revenues of 5.721 billion yuan, up 47.69% [9] - WuXi AppTec achieved a net profit of 3.672 billion yuan in Q1, marking a year-on-year growth of over 89% [10] - Shanghai Pharmaceuticals reported a net profit of 1.333 billion yuan in Q1, down 13.56% year-on-year [11] Group 4: Consumer Goods - Lao Feng Xiang reported a net profit of 613 million yuan in Q1, a decrease of 23.55% year-on-year, with revenues of 17.521 billion yuan, down 31.64% [13] - Three squirrels reported a net profit of 239 million yuan in Q1, a decline of 22.46% year-on-year, with revenues of 3.723 billion yuan, up 2.13% [16] Group 5: New Initiatives - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation has commenced construction on a 30,000-ton carbon fiber project, expected to be completed by 2027, supporting the new materials industry [22][23] - ZTE is entering the companion robot market, planning to launch products focused on security monitoring and emotional companionship [6] Group 6: Market Trends - TikTok is implementing new regulations to combat malicious marketing accounts, introducing a health score mechanism for accounts [8] - The dining reservation volume for the upcoming holiday has surged, with Haidilao receiving over 25,000 reservations for the first day of the holiday [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the transportation industry, indicating an expectation of performance exceeding the market benchmark by over 5% [5]. Core Insights - In March, the express delivery industry experienced a year-on-year volume growth of 20.3%, with a total of 16.656 billion packages delivered, slightly down from a cumulative growth of 22.4% in January and February [2][10]. - SF Express saw a significant volume growth of 25.4%, outperforming other companies in the Tongda system, and its market share increased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][17]. - The price competition remains intense within the industry, with year-on-year declines in average revenue per package for Tongda companies, including a 7.6% drop for YTO Express and an 11.7% drop for SF Express [3][27][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The express delivery sector's volume growth remains robust, with March figures showing a 20.3% increase year-on-year, despite a slight slowdown from earlier months [2][12]. - The growth in same-city deliveries was 4.3%, while intercity deliveries grew by 21.9% [12][14]. 2. Business Volume - SF Express's business volume growth reached 25.4%, significantly higher than its competitors, with a market share increase of 0.3 percentage points [2][17]. - YTO Express, Shentong, and Yunda's growth rates were close to the industry average, with YTO showing a slight edge [2][17]. 3. Revenue per Package - The average revenue per package for Tongda companies saw declines, with Shentong, Yunda, and YTO experiencing year-on-year decreases of 4.3%, 5.8%, and 7.6% respectively [3][27]. - SF Express's average revenue per package fell by 11.7% year-on-year, attributed to an increased proportion of e-commerce packages [3][29]. 4. Structural Changes - The industry concentration ratio (CR8) was 86.9 in March, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.8 but a slight decrease of 0.2 from the previous month [33][35]. - The market share of the four publicly listed companies in the A-share market was 49.8%, a slight increase from 49.6% year-on-year, driven by YTO's market share ambitions and SF's strong growth [33][36]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on industry leaders with superior service quality, particularly Zhongtong and YTO, as the industry shifts towards prioritizing service over cost advantages [4][37].