Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the white meat chicken industry and specific companies, namely Shengnong and Yisheng, highlighting their long-term investment potential amidst current market challenges [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Dynamics**: The white meat chicken industry is experiencing a significant supply gap due to the ongoing impact of avian influenza and intensified US-China trade tensions, leading to a prolonged period of reduced supply [3][4]. 2. **Supply Chain Disruptions**: Since December of the previous year, imports from the US and New Zealand have been halted due to avian influenza outbreaks, resulting in a drastic decline in breeding stock availability [4][5]. 3. **Production Decline**: The total breeding stock in the industry dropped to approximately 218,000 sets in the first three months of the year, a 45% year-over-year decrease, indicating a critical supply shortage [6][7]. 4. **Demand vs. Supply Gap**: The industry requires around 1.1 to 1.2 million sets of breeding stock, but the current production is significantly below this level, confirming a persistent supply gap [7][9]. 5. **Market Sentiment**: Previous uncertainties regarding avian influenza led to skepticism about the industry's recovery; however, the current situation is deemed more severe, suggesting a clearer path to price increases in the future [8][12]. 6. **Price Projections**: The price of parent stock and commercial chicks is expected to rise by mid-year, as the supply chain disruptions will start affecting downstream prices [12][14]. 7. **Company Performance**: Shengnong has demonstrated resilience, maintaining profitability even during challenging market conditions, while Yisheng has managed to secure limited imports, positioning itself favorably in the market [10][11]. Additional Important Insights - **Long-term Viability**: The companies discussed are not only seen as safe havens but also possess strong long-term growth potential due to their integrated supply chains and market positioning [2][10]. - **Investment Considerations**: Investors are advised to monitor the evolving market conditions closely, particularly the supply of breeding stock and the pricing dynamics in the coming months [15]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the white meat chicken industry and the specific companies involved.

Investment Rating - The report rates the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry as "Overweight" [2][8] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector is expected to see a significant recovery in Q1 2025, with a projected net profit of 99.30 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 705% [4][5] - Key sub-sectors expected to show strong growth include seed and planting (+320%), pig farming (+278%), and chicken farming (+117%) [3][4] - The report highlights the performance of specific companies, with notable profit increases for Muyuansheng (289%), Wen's (246%), and Shennong Group (6550%) [3][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Pig Farming - In Q1 2025, despite a slight decline in pig prices, the cost optimization has led to profitability, with an average profit of 85.89 yuan per head [3][4] - The average price of pigs was 15.06 yuan/kg, down 9.43% from the previous quarter [3] - Major pig farming companies are expected to report a combined net profit of 66.70 billion yuan, a significant turnaround from losses [3][4] Chicken Farming - The white feather chicken sector is facing price declines across the supply chain, with significant drops in chick and meat prices [3][4] - The average price for white feather chicken chicks was 2.36 yuan each, down 29.2% year-on-year [3] - Despite challenges, companies like Shennong Development are expected to achieve profitability due to cost management [3][4] Pet Food - The pet food sector is projected to grow rapidly, driven by both domestic and international markets [3][4] - Exports of pet food increased by 9.1% in early 2025, with domestic brands launching new products [3][4] - Companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong are expected to see net profit increases of 21% and 42%, respectively [3][4] Animal Health - The increase in livestock numbers is expected to boost sales of veterinary products, with a projected recovery in revenue and net profit for listed companies [3][4] - The number of vaccine approvals increased by 23% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in demand [3][4] Investment Analysis - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities across various agricultural sub-sectors, particularly in light of favorable tariff policies and the push for self-sufficiency [3][4] - Recommended companies for investment include Muyuansheng, Wen's, Haida Group, Guibao Pet, Shennong Development, and Longping High-Tech [3][4][9]

公司已于 2025 年 4 月 12 日披露《2025 年第一季度业绩预告》（公告编号： 2025-025），预计 2025 年第一季度归属于上市公司股东的净利润 1.3 亿元-1.6 证券代码：002299 证券简称：圣农发展 公告编号：2025-026 福建圣农发展股份有限公司 2025 年 3 月份销售情况简报 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确和完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏。 一、2025 年 3 月份销售情况 福建圣农发展股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2025 年 3 月实现销售收入 15.32 亿元，较去年同期增长 0.92%，较上月环比增长 33.91%。其中，家禽饲养 加工板块鸡肉销售收入为 11.80 亿元，较去年同期变动-2.34%，较上月环比增长 41.10%；深加工肉制品板块销售收入为 6.59 亿元，较去年同期增长 13.08%，较 上月环比增长 31.20%。 销量方面，3 月份家禽饲养加工板块鸡肉销售数量为 12.34 万吨，较去年同 期变动-0.06%，较上月环比增长 44.29%；深加工肉制品板块产品销售数量为 3.36 万吨，较去年同期增长 2 ...

傅光明，男，1953年出生，中国国籍，无境外永久居留权。傅光明是公司创始人，现任公司董事长，兼 任福建圣农控股集团有限公司董事、福建圣农食品有限公司董事、福建圣农发展（浦城）有限公司执行 董事、圣农发展（政和）有限公司执行董事、福建海圣饲料有限公司董事、浦城县圣农伊博蛋白饲料有 限公司执行董事、浦城县海圣饲料有限公司董事。 薪酬方面，2024年，圣农发展监事罗平涛薪酬为110万元，冠绝董监高，董事长傅光明、董事会秘书兼 副总经理廖俊杰薪酬均为100万元，并列第二。 | 姓名 | 性别 | 年龄 | 职务 | 任职状态 | 从公司获得的 | 是否在公司关 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 税前报酬总额 | 联方获取报酬 | | 傅光明 | तेर्न | 72 | 重事长 | 现任 | 100 | 否 | | 傅芬芳 | 女 | 45 | 董事、总经理 | 现任 | 80 | 否 | | 廖俊杰 | 男 | 39 | 董事、董事会秘书、副总经理 | 现任 | 100 | 香 | | 席车 | 男 | 44 | 重事,副总经理 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated a robust performance with a revenue of 18.586 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.724 billion yuan, up 9.03% year-on-year [1][2] - The company has shown a strong competitive advantage in the industry, with significant growth in both production and sales volumes, particularly in chicken meat sales and processed meat products [4][6] - The company has successfully enhanced its breeding stock performance and market share through the development of its proprietary breeding source, "Shenze 901plus," which has seen over 30% growth in sales compared to the previous year [4][6] Financial Performance - The company achieved a quarterly growth in performance throughout 2024, indicating a consistent improvement in its operational efficiency [4] - The forecast for total revenue from 2024 to 2026 is adjusted to 20.889 billion yuan, 23.106 billion yuan, and 25.706 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 1.076 billion yuan, 1.583 billion yuan, and 1.946 billion yuan [4][6] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 0.58 yuan in 2024 to 1.56 yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [6][7] Market Performance - The company's stock has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a 1-month performance of +20.0%, 3-month performance of +21.5%, and a 12-month performance of +16.1% [3] - The current stock price is 17.12 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 10.49 to 17.98 yuan [3] Business Strategy - The company has established a comprehensive multi-channel business system covering B-end, C-end, and F-end markets, leading to a 23.40% year-on-year increase in C-end business revenue [4] - The company has focused on enhancing its export business, achieving a 17.29% year-on-year growth in exports [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown continuous improvement in operational efficiency, with profits expected to expand quarterly in 2024. The revenue for 2024 is projected at 18.586 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.53%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 724 million yuan, up 9.03% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 is anticipated to show a revenue of 4.823 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.78% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 342 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [4][5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan for every 10 shares, totaling 247 million yuan [4] - Short-term outlook indicates potential price increases for domestic chicken due to overseas avian influenza affecting imports, while long-term projections suggest that sufficient domestic supply may pressure chicken prices [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 to 1.091 billion yuan, 2026 to 1.247 billion yuan, and introduced a new forecast for 2027 at 1.389 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.88, 1.00, and 1.12 yuan respectively [4] Summary by Sections Poultry Breeding and Processing Business - The poultry breeding and processing sector reported revenue of 10.356 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 1.53% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 5.70%, down 0.62 percentage points. Despite a challenging industry backdrop, the company has improved the production performance of breeding chickens, leading to a reduction in comprehensive breeding costs. The first quarter of 2025 is expected to see a 10% year-on-year decrease in comprehensive meat production costs [5] - The company achieved the highest market share in chicken exports to Japan and successfully entered several new overseas markets, generating export revenue of 638 million yuan, an increase of 18.78% year-on-year [5] Food Processing Business - The food processing segment achieved revenue of 7.010 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.63%, with a gross margin of 19.61%, up 0.94 percentage points. The production volume of deep-processed meat products reached 314,900 tons, up 3.08% year-on-year, and sales volume increased by 6.32% year-on-year [6] - The company's retail business in the consumer sector is expected to see revenue growth exceeding 30% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company's financial metrics indicate a revenue forecast of 20.442 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 1.091 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 50.6% year-on-year [7] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 11.4% in 2025, with a net margin of 5.3% [7] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to decrease from 19.5 in 2025 to 15.3 in 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown continuous improvement in operational efficiency, with profit scale expected to expand quarterly in 2024. The revenue for 2024 is projected at 18.586 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.53%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 724 million yuan, up 9.03% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 is anticipated to show a revenue of 4.823 billion yuan, a 5.78% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 342 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [4][5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan for every 10 shares, totaling 247 million yuan [4] - Short-term outlook for 2025 indicates potential increases in domestic chicken prices due to overseas avian influenza affecting imports, while long-term projections suggest that sufficient domestic supply may pressure chicken prices [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 to 1.091 billion yuan, 2026 to 1.247 billion yuan, and introduced a forecast for 2027 at 1.389 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.88, 1.00, and 1.12 yuan respectively [4] Summary by Sections Poultry Breeding and Processing Business - The poultry breeding and processing industry reported revenue of 10.356 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 1.53% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 5.70%, down 0.62 percentage points. Despite industry challenges, the company has improved breeding performance, leading to a projected 10% reduction in comprehensive meat production costs for Q1 2025. The company achieved the largest share of chicken exports to Japan, with export revenue of 638 million yuan, an increase of 18.78% year-on-year [5] Food Processing Business - The food processing sector generated revenue of 7.010 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.63%, with a gross margin of 19.61%, up 0.94 percentage points. The production volume of deep-processed meat products reached 314,900 tons, a 3.08% increase, while sales volume rose by 6.32% to 316,900 tons. The company's retail business is expected to see over 30% growth in Q1 2025 [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s financial metrics for 2023A to 2027E show a steady increase in revenue and net profit. Revenue is expected to grow from 18.487 billion yuan in 2023 to 22.028 billion yuan in 2027, while net profit is projected to rise from 664 million yuan to 1.389 billion yuan over the same period. The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 10.6% to 12.1% [7][10]

这是新消费智库第 2 6 1 6 期文章 新消费导读 1.Crocs携手Marimek ko推出首款合作系列 2.怡宝魔力运动饮料1L装新品全国上市 3. Inner Brightnes s推出Ak kermans ia益生菌补充剂 4.必胜客披萨有蛇出没 5.承德露露跨界推出露露草本「养生饮」 6.圣农发展拟11.26亿元收购太阳谷剩余54%股权 7.达能拟在德国爱他美工厂进行重大投资 8.美国拟成立Ti kTok美国独立公司，亚马逊等多方竞购 9.联合利华宣布收购Wi ld 10.Safi lo收购眼镜品牌Blender s多数股权 11.真维斯关闭澳洲所有门店 12.ZITA TAN发布2025秋冬系列 13.上美股份AI智能化妆品无人车间已正式投产 14.GymNation打造全球首个于健身房中的酒店 15.AUTEUR发布「星际漫游」系列 新消费 1.Crocs携手Marimek ko推出首款合作系列 怡宝官宣魔力运动饮料1L装新品全国上市。新品特别添加电解质、氨基酸、GLU葡萄糖和维生素B6，助力身体代谢、提供能量，1L大容量， 为不同流汗场景提供补充。（食业头条） 3. Inner Bright ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][7] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 18.585 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 724 million yuan, up 9.03% year-on-year [4][8] - The poultry farming and slaughtering business saw a revenue of 10.356 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.53% year-on-year, primarily due to falling chicken prices, with an average selling price of 8,800 yuan per ton, down 15% year-on-year [4][5] - The company plans to invest 1.126 billion yuan to acquire a 54% stake in Anhui Taiyanggu Food Technology Co., which is expected to significantly increase its breeding and slaughtering capacity [4][5] - The company has developed a new breeding stock combination, "Shenze 901plus," which has improved performance metrics and aims to capture 40% of the domestic market share while expanding internationally [5][6] - The meat product business has seen a sales volume of 316,900 tons, a growth of 6.32% year-on-year, with revenue reaching 7.009 billion yuan, up 9.63% year-on-year [6][7] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 1.411 billion yuan, 1.768 billion yuan, and 2.038 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.14 yuan, 1.42 yuan, and 1.64 yuan [7][8] - The projected PE ratios for the next three years are 14.78, 11.80, and 10.24 [7][8] - The company is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory with a revenue growth rate of 11.82% in 2025 and 15.53% in 2026 [8][11]

买入/维持 圣农发展(002299) 目标价: 昨收盘:16.78 年报点评：亚洲白鸡产业链一体化经营龙头，盈利稳健增长 ◼ 走势比较 (40%) (28%) (16%) (4%) 8% 20% 24/4/15 24/6/26 24/9/6 24/11/17 25/1/28 25/4/10 ◼ 股票数据 2025 年 04 月 14 日 公司点评 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 12.43/12.43 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 208.64/208.63 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 17.98/10.49 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <<年报点评：家禽养殖业务产能持续 提升，深加工业务快速增长>>-- 2023-03-30 <<季报点评：量增价涨驱动盈利持续 增长，推荐买入>>--2022-10-28 <<圣农发展：全产业链核心优势&产 业景气度持续，业绩高速增长>>-- 2020-03-29 证券分析师：程晓东 电话：010-88321761 E-MAIL：chengxd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190511050002 事件：公司近日发 ...