江苏洋河酒厂股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2024-004 ☑特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | --- | |-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 ☑现场参观 □其他 洋河股份：陆红珍、祝海慧； 活动参 与人员 投资者：来自天风证券、兴银理财、中银基金、彬元资本的 5 名投资 者 | --- | --- | |---------------|--------------------------------------------------------------| | 时间 | 2024 年 9 月 26 日 | | 地点 | 洋河总部 | | 形式 | 现场交流 | | | 一、今年以来公司情况如何？ | | | 整体来看，白酒市场竞争更为激烈，本着理性发展，公司结合市 | | | 场实际调整经营节奏，强化宴席等渠道，重视开瓶开箱及库存指标， | | 交流内 | 坚持深耕大本营、深度全国化，省外整体表现优于省内。 | | 容及具 体问答 | 二、今年对市场工作进行了哪些调整？ | | 记录 | 面对变化和竞争， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates strong operational resilience and is enhancing shareholder returns through a robust dividend policy [1][2] - The company reported a revenue of 22.876 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.58%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.947 billion yuan, up 1.08% year-on-year [2] - The company is focusing on a multi-brand strategy and aims to strengthen its market presence both domestically and nationally [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company's revenue from high-end and regular liquor was 19.961 billion yuan and 2.530 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 4.78% and 5.16% year-on-year [2] - The second quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 6.621 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.02% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.892 billion yuan, down 9.75% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 73.67%, a decline of 1.40 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a slight downturn in product structure [2] Market Strategy - The company is implementing a strategy of "deepening the home market and nationwide expansion," focusing on enhancing its market position and optimizing sales strategies [2] - The number of distributors increased to 8,833 by the end of H1 2024, with a net addition of 44 distributors compared to the end of 2023 [2] Dividend Policy - The company has announced a cash dividend plan, committing to distribute no less than 70% of the net profit attributable to shareholders annually from 2024 to 2026, with a minimum of 7 billion yuan (before tax) [2] - The estimated dividend yield for 2024 is over 6%, indicating a high allocation value at the current stock price [2] Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 10.26 billion yuan, 10.95 billion yuan, and 11.71 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.4%, 6.8%, and 7.0% [3] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for these years are projected to be 12, 11, and 10 times [3]

公司报告 | 半年报点评 业绩基本保持稳健，省内调整初见成效 事件： 2024H1 营业收入 / 归 母 净 利 润 / 扣非归母净利润同比 +4.58%/+1.08%/+2.96%；24Q2 分别同比-3.02%/-9.75%/-7.65%。24~26 年， 每年现金分红总额不低于当年归母净利润的 70%且不低于 70 亿元（含税）。 洋河股份（002304） 证券研究报告 2024 年 09 月 02 日 投资评级 行业 食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 6 个月评级 买入（维持评级） 当前价格 78 元 目标价格 元 吨价提升驱动业绩增长，中高档毛利下降。24H1 酒类收入 224.91 亿元（同 比+4.82%），其中白酒/红酒收入 224.36/0.55 亿元（同比+4.89%/-17.32%）。 ①量价看，白酒量/价同比-0.27%/+5.17%，价升主导业绩增长。②价格带看， 中高档/普通酒营收 199.61/25.30 亿元（同比+4.78%/+5.16%），其中中高档 收入占比同比-0.04 个百分点至 88.75% （中高档/普通酒毛利率同比 -1.37/+2.76 个百分点），具体看：①中高档酒毛利承压 ...

[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 08 月 29 日 证券研究报告•2024 年半年报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：77.24 元 洋河股份（002304）食品饮料 目标价：——元（6 个月） 中高档暂有承压，高分红彰显信心 [Table_Summary 事件：公司发布] 2024 年度半年报，2024H1实现营业总收入 228.8亿元，同比 +4.6%，实现归母净利润 79.5亿元，同比+1.1%；2024单 Q2实现营业总收入 66.2 亿元，同比-3.0%，实现归母净利润 18.9亿元，同比-9.8%。公司拟定 2024 年度-2026年度，每年度现金分红总额不低于当年实现归属于上市公司股东净利 润的 70%且不低于人民币 70 亿元（含税）。 中高档略承压，省外增长稳健。2024H1：1、分产品结构看，中高档酒、普通 酒分别实现营收 199.6 亿元(+4.8%)、25.3 亿元(+5.2%)，商务消费复苏疲软， 中高档酒增长有所承压。2、分区域看，省内、省外分别实现营收 96.0 亿元 (+1.4%)、129.0 亿元(+7.5%)，省外市场开拓已成为营收主要增长源。3、量价 拆 ...

静待改革见成效 ——洋河股份 2024Q2 点评 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|--------------| | | | | [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） | | | 报告日期： 2024-09-01 | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 81.88 | | 近 12 个月最高 / 最低（元） | 134.29/75.39 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1,506 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1,503 | | 流通股比例（ % ） | 99.75 | | 总市值（亿元） | 1,233 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 1,230 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -51% -35% -19% -3% 13% 9/23 12/23 3/24 6/24 洋河股份 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 联系人：郑少轩 执业证书号：S001012404000 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing high dividend yield as a key attraction despite slowing earnings growth [3][5] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance was under pressure, with revenue declining 3.02% YoY and net profit dropping 9.75% YoY [2] - The company announced a cash dividend payout plan, committing to a minimum 70% payout ratio and at least 7 billion RMB annually from 2024-2026 [2] - Despite short-term challenges, the company's high dividend yield (around 6%) provides a safety margin and makes it attractive from a dividend perspective [3] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - H1 2024 total revenue reached 22.876 billion RMB, up 4.58% YoY, with net profit of 7.947 billion RMB, a 1.08% increase [2] - Q2 2024 revenue was 6.621 billion RMB, down 3.02% YoY, with net profit of 1.892 billion RMB, a 9.75% decline [2] - The company's mid-to-high-end products contributed 19.96 billion RMB in H1, up 4.78% YoY [2] Regional Performance - Domestic revenue in H1 was 9.6 billion RMB (+1.42% YoY), while out-of-province revenue grew 7.50% to 12.9 billion RMB [2] - The company has 2,942 domestic and 5,891 out-of-province distributors, with a net increase of 62 out-of-province dealers [2] Profitability and Valuation - Q2 2024 gross margin was 73.67%, down 1.4 percentage points YoY [3] - The company's P/E ratio is projected at 11x for 2024 and 10x for 2026 [4] - ROE is expected to decline slightly from 19.28% in 2023 to 17.85% in 2026 [4] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - Q2 2024 operating cash flow was -2.81 billion RMB, compared to -1.14 billion RMB in Q2 2023 [3] - Contract liabilities decreased by 1.88 billion RMB to 3.94 billion RMB at the end of Q2 [3] - The company's cash position is expected to grow from 25.813 billion RMB in 2023 to 40.974 billion RMB in 2026 [8] Future Projections - Revenue is forecast to grow from 34.661 billion RMB in 2024E to 39.265 billion RMB in 2026E [4] - Net profit is projected to increase from 10.208 billion RMB in 2024E to 11.591 billion RMB in 2026E [4] - EPS is expected to rise from 6.78 RMB in 2024E to 7.69 RMB in 2026E [4]

Investment Rating - Buy/Upgrade rating with a target price of 102.6 RMB, compared to the previous closing price of 77.24 RMB [1] Core Views - Short-term performance pressure but a commitment to shareholder returns with a minimum dividend of 7 billion RMB annually from 2024 to 2026 [1][3] - Revenue growth of 4.58% YoY in H1 2024, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 1.08% YoY [3] - Product structure slightly shifted downward, with mid-to-high-end liquor revenue growing by 4.78% YoY and ordinary liquor revenue growing by 5.16% YoY [3] - Regional performance shows slower growth in the domestic market (+1.42% YoY) compared to the external market (+7.50% YoY) [3] - Increased expense investment in Q2 2024, leading to a decline in net profit margin to 28.58% [3] - The company aims for a 5%-10% revenue growth in 2024, focusing on deepening its domestic market and expanding nationally [3] Financial Performance Summary - H1 2024 revenue: 22.876 billion RMB (+4.58% YoY), net profit: 7.947 billion RMB (+1.08% YoY) [3] - Q2 2024 revenue: 6.621 billion RMB (-3.02% YoY), net profit: 1.892 billion RMB (-9.75% YoY) [3] - Gross margin in H1 2024: 75.4% (-0.8 pct YoY), Q2 gross margin: 73.7% (-1.4 pct YoY) [3] - Contract liabilities at the end of Q2 2024: 3.938 billion RMB, a decrease of 18.8% QoQ and 13.9% YoY [3] Product and Market Strategy - Mid-to-high-end liquor revenue: 19.961 billion RMB (+4.78% YoY), gross margin: 79.40% (-1.37 pct YoY) [3] - Ordinary liquor revenue: 2.530 billion RMB (+5.16% YoY), gross margin: 49.82% (+2.76 pct YoY) [3] - Focus on stabilizing the price of M6+ and limiting the supply of Handmade Class products [3] - Domestic market strategy: Optimizing the dealer system, with 2,942 dealers at the end of Q2 2024 [3] - External market strategy: Increasing penetration, with 5,891 dealers at the end of Q2 2024 [3] Financial Forecasts - Expected revenue growth for 2024-2026: 5%/7%/6% [3] - Expected net profit growth for 2024-2026: 3%/8%/7% [3] - EPS for 2024-2026: 6.84/7.41/7.93 RMB, with PE ratios of 11x/10x/10x [3] - Dividend yield based on current market value: 6% [3] Valuation and Target Price - Target price adjusted to 102.60 RMB based on 2024 performance, with a 15x PE ratio [3] - Current PE ratio: 11x for 2024, 10x for 2025 and 2026 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][4][5] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the second quarter of 2024, but has announced a three-year cash dividend plan with a minimum payout ratio of 70% and a total dividend amount of no less than 7 billion yuan (including tax) for the years 2024-2026, indicating a commitment to return value to shareholders [4][5] - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 22.876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.947 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [4][5] - The company is focusing on both domestic and international markets, with domestic revenue growing by 1.42% and international revenue growing by 7.50% in the first half of 2024 [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company reported total revenue of 6.621 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%, and a net profit of 1.892 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7% [4][5] - The company's white liquor business revenue increased by 4.89% year-on-year in H1 2024, with mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor revenues of 19.961 billion yuan and 2.530 billion yuan, respectively [4][5] - The gross profit margin for mid-to-high-end liquor decreased by 1.37 percentage points, while that for ordinary liquor increased by 2.76 percentage points [4][5] Market Strategy - The company is implementing a "focus + transformation" strategy in domestic markets while developing high-ground markets in international regions [4][5] - As of the end of Q2, the company had 8,833 distributors, with a net decrease of 18 in domestic markets and an increase of 62 in international markets [4][5] Profitability Forecast - The company has adjusted its revenue forecast for 2024-2025, expecting revenues of 32.247 billion yuan and 33.899 billion yuan, representing year-on-year changes of -2.7% and +5.1%, respectively [5][6] - The net profit forecast for 2024-2025 is set at 9.521 billion yuan and 9.868 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -4.9% and +3.6%, respectively [5][6] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 12.2 for 2024, with a dividend yield of 6%, indicating a high margin of safety in valuation [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 22.876 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.947 billion yuan, up 1% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 3% to 6.621 billion yuan, primarily due to weakened external demand and intensified market competition [1] - The company has initiated a cash dividend plan for 2024-2026, committing to distribute no less than 70% of the annual net profit attributable to shareholders, with a minimum of 7 billion yuan each year, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns [1] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company faces intensified competition within the province and is undergoing reform adjustments [1] Earnings Forecast - The company’s H1 2024 white liquor revenue was 22.436 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year, with sales volume at 115.6 thousand tons, a slight decrease of 0.3% [2] - The average price per ton of liquor increased by 5% to 194.1 thousand yuan [2] - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor revenue was 19.961 billion yuan, also up 5% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 2.530 billion yuan, maintaining a 5% increase [2] - The company’s sales model showed a 5% increase in wholesale and distribution revenue to 22.254 billion yuan, while online direct sales revenue decreased by 9% to 2.37 billion yuan [2] - The company’s revenue from provincial and non-provincial markets was 9.595 billion yuan and 12.896 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 1% and 8% [2] Financial Adjustments - The report adjusts the EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 6.72, 7.14, and 7.59 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12, 12, and 11 times [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's revenue performance is in line with market expectations, with a further increase in dividend rate, indicating a gradual accumulation value [4] - The company achieved a revenue of 22.88 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.95 billion yuan, up 1.1% year-on-year [4] - In Q2 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.62 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.89 billion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year [4] - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend of no less than 70% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, with a minimum of 7 billion yuan annually, resulting in a current dividend yield of around 6% [7] Revenue Performance - The company's mid-to-high-end liquor and regular liquor revenues increased by 4.8% and 5.2% respectively in H1 2024, with provincial and out-of-province revenues at 9.6 billion yuan and 12.9 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 1.42% and 7.50% respectively [5] - The internal structure shows that the M6+ product line is significantly affected by business demand, while competition in the province has intensified, impacting the market share of mass-market products [5] Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 73.7% in Q2 2024, primarily due to a decline in the product structure of mid-to-high-end products [6] - The net profit margin in Q2 2024 decreased by 2.1 percentage points to 28.6% [6] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 6.79 yuan, 6.99 yuan, and 7.36 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 12.1, 11.7, and 11.1 times [4][8] Dividend Policy - The company emphasizes a dividend payout ratio while ensuring an absolute value, effectively guaranteeing shareholder returns [7]