Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Cautious Recommendation" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 33.13 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.02 billion yuan, up 6.8% year-on-year. In Q1 2024, revenue reached 16.26 billion yuan, growing 8.0% year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.06 billion yuan, an increase of 5.0% year-on-year [5][6] - The company is focusing on channel optimization and improving distributor quality due to intense competition in the domestic market. It is also expanding into county and township markets in provinces like Henan and Shandong, while targeting emerging markets for growth [5] - The company's high-end product segment is under pressure, with a 16.6% decline in sales volume in 2023, although the average price per ton increased by 29.5%. The revenue from mid-to-high-end and ordinary liquor was 28.54 billion yuan and 3.95 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.8% and 20.7% [5] - The company experienced a rise in expense ratios due to delayed digitalization costs, with a gross margin of 75.2% in 2023, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin for 2023 and Q1 2024 was 30.2% and 37.3%, respectively [5] - The company has a high dividend yield, with cash dividends of 7.02 billion yuan in 2023, resulting in a payout ratio of 70.1% and a dividend yield of 4.9% based on the latest closing price [5] Financial Summary - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 7.03 yuan, 7.51 yuan, and 8.23 yuan, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are 14, 13, and 12 times [5][6] - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is 35.42 billion yuan, 38.14 billion yuan, and 41.30 billion yuan, with growth rates of 6.93%, 7.67%, and 8.30% respectively [6][7] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 10.59 billion yuan, 11.31 billion yuan, and 12.40 billion yuan, with profit growth rates of 5.72%, 6.79%, and 9.69% respectively [6][7]

公司报告 | 季报点评 洋河股份（002304） 证券研究报告 2024年04月 30日 投资评级 业绩稳健增长，分红率70%为亮点 行业 食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 6个月评级 买入（维持评级） 当前价格 95.07元 事件：23 年公司营业收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 331.26/100.16/98.43亿元（同比+10.04%/+6.80%/+6.10%）；23Q4公司营业 目标价格 元 收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 28.43/-1.88/-3.22 亿元（同比 -21.51%/-161.28%/-174.32%）；24Q1公司营业收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净 基本数据 利润分别为162.55/60.55/60.50亿元（同比+8.03%/+5.02%/+6.79%）。 A股总股本(百万股) 1,506.45 流通A股股本(百万股) 1,502.16 中高档酒持续增长，驱动整体结构上行。2023年公司实现白酒销售323.90 A股总市值(百万元) 143,217.73 亿元（同比+10.40%），其中中高档酒/普通酒收入285.39/39.50 亿元（同比 流通A股市值(百万元) 142, ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 33.126 billion yuan and a net profit of 10.016 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.0% and 6.8% respectively. For Q1 2024, the revenue and net profit were 16.25 billion yuan and 6.06 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.0% and 5.0% [6][7] - The company has seen double-digit revenue growth in 2023, with a total profit exceeding 10 billion yuan. The growth was driven by a strong performance in both mid-to-high-end and regular liquor segments, with revenues of 28.539 billion yuan and 3.95 billion yuan respectively, marking increases of 8.82% and 20.7% year-on-year [6][7] - The company has a healthy cash flow performance, with a cash collection of 22.2 billion yuan in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13%. The dividend payout ratio was raised from 60% to 70%, enhancing the company's value proposition [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2022 was 30.105 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.76%. The projected revenue for 2023 is 33.126 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.04% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022 was 9.378 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.91%. The forecast for 2023 is 10.016 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.80% [6] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is 6.65 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 14.42 [6][8] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 100.09 yuan, with a one-year low of 88.30 yuan and a high of 150.35 yuan. The market capitalization is approximately 150.78 billion yuan [3][4] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 13.84, 12.61, and 11.42 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [6][8]

食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024年4月30日 002304.SZ 洋河股份 买入 公司业绩短期承压，调整经营节奏蓄力长远发展 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 95.86 洋河股份公告2023年年报及2024年1季报。2023年公司实现营收331.3亿元，同比 增长10.0%，归母净利100.2亿元，同比增长6.8%，其中4Q23营收28.4亿元，同比 板块评级:强于大市 降21.5%，归母净利-1.9亿元，转亏。1Q24公司营收162.5亿元，同比增8.0%，归 母净利60.6亿元，同比增5.0%。2023年公司提高分红比率，短期业绩承压，调整经 本报告要点 营节奏蓄力长远发展，维持买入评级。  洋河股份2023年年报及2024年1季报业绩 支撑评级的要点 点评  4季度公司主动控货，调整产品结构，拉低全年营收增速，2023年公司营收增速 为10.0%,其中4Q23营收增速同比下滑21.5%。（1）分具体产品来看，2023年 股价表现 公司中高档产品实现营收285.4亿元，同比增8.8%，收入占比为87.8%，同比降 1.1pct。我们判断，受宏观环境影响，商务需求减弱，公司核心单品 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company with a target price of 106.80, compared to the last closing price of 100.09 [1][4]. Core Views - The company is currently in an adjustment phase, with notable growth in low-end liquor sales. The performance in Q1 2024 was satisfactory, achieving a revenue of 162.55 billion, up 8.03% year-on-year, and a net profit of 60.55 billion, up 5.02% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company aims for a revenue growth of 5%-10% in 2024, focusing on deepening its market presence and enhancing operational efficiency [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 331.26 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.04%, and a net profit of 100.16 billion, up 6.80% year-on-year. The Q4 2023 revenue was 28.43 billion, down 21.51% year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.88 billion, down 161.28% year-on-year [1][4]. - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor in 2023 was 285.39 billion and 39.50 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 8.82% and 20.70% [1][4]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for 2023 was 75.25%, with a slight increase in Q1 2024 to 76.03%. The net profit margin for 2023 was 30.25%, which decreased to 37.24% in Q1 2024 due to increased sales expenses [1][4]. - The company reported a historical high dividend payout of 70.2 billion in 2023, with a dividend rate of 70%, resulting in a current market capitalization corresponding to a dividend yield of 4.7% [1][4]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence outside its home province, with revenue from provincial and non-provincial markets reaching 143.93 billion and 180.96 billion, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 8.05% and 11.85% [1][4]. - The number of distributors increased, with a net addition of 568 distributors in non-provincial areas, indicating ongoing efforts to enhance distribution channels [1][4]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 9%, 8%, and 7% for 2024-2026, with net profit growth rates of 7%, 7%, and 6% for the same period [1][4]. - The report anticipates earnings per share (EPS) of 7.12, 7.61, and 8.05 for 2024-2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14x, 13x, and 12x [1][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company with a target price of 106.80, compared to the last closing price of 100.09 [1][3]. Core Views - The company has achieved a record high dividend payout ratio of 70% in 2023, indicating strong cash flow and shareholder returns [3]. - The company is currently in an adjustment phase, with notable growth in low-end liquor products, while overall performance in Q4 2023 was below expectations [3]. - The company aims for a revenue growth of 5%-10% in 2024, focusing on deepening its market presence and enhancing operational efficiency [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 33.126 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.04%, and a net profit of 10.016 billion, up 6.80% [3][5]. - For Q1 2024, revenue reached 16.255 billion, reflecting an 8.03% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 6.055 billion, up 5.02% [3]. - The company’s gross margin for 2023 was 75.25%, with a slight increase in Q1 2024 to 76.03% [3][5]. Product and Market Insights - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor and regular liquor segments generated revenues of 28.539 billion and 3.950 billion respectively in 2023, with growth rates of 8.82% and 20.70% [3]. - The company has increased the ex-factory price of its M6+ product by 20 yuan per bottle starting April 1, 2024, to support future growth [3]. - The company’s revenue from provincial and non-provincial markets in 2023 was 14.393 billion and 18.096 billion respectively, with non-provincial revenue growing at a faster rate [3]. Expense and Profitability Analysis - Sales expenses increased significantly, leading to a slight pressure on net profit margins, which were 30.25% in 2023 and 37.24% in Q1 2024 [3]. - The company’s advertising and promotional expenses reached 3.461 billion in 2023, a 43.34% increase year-on-year, reflecting intensified competition [3]. - The net profit margin for 2023 was 30.25%, slightly down from the previous year due to increased expenses [3]. Future Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 9%, 8%, and 7% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 7%, 7%, and 6% [3][5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 7.12, 7.61, and 8.05 respectively [5].

证 券 2024 年 04 月 29 日 研 究 业绩稳健提升，市场运作策略清晰 报 告 —洋河股份（002304.SZ）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 2024 年 4 月 26 日，洋河股份发布 2023 年年度报告与 2024 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 年一季度报告。 投资要点 基本数据 2024-04-29 ▌业绩稳健增长，分红比例持续提升 当前股价（元） 95.86 总市值（亿元） 1444 公 司 2023/2023Q4/2024Q1 总 营 收 分 别 为 总股本（百万股） 1506 331.26/28.43/162.55 亿元，分别同比+10%/-22%/+8%，营收 延续稳健增长，归母净利润分别为 100.16/-1.88/60.55 亿 流通股本（百万股） 1502 元，分别同比+7%/-161%/+5%，2023Q4 淡季收入低，叠加费 52周价格范围（元） 90.75-147.86 用预提、预缴消费税与附加税，导致盈利承压。盈利端， 日均成交额（百万元） 557.87 2023/2024Q1 公司毛利率分别为 75.25%/ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - A" with a six-month target price of 150 CNY per share, corresponding to a 2024 PE of 21 times [3][9]. Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its dividend payout ratio, which has increased to 70% with a proposed dividend of 46.60 CNY per 10 shares (before tax) [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 33.126 billion CNY in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.04%, and a net profit of 10.016 billion CNY, up 6.80% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 16.255 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 8.03%, and a net profit of 6.055 billion CNY, up 5.02% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth target of 5%-10% in 2024, with projected profits of 10.672 billion CNY, 11.337 billion CNY, and 11.912 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company generated revenue of 33.126 billion CNY, with mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor contributing 28.54 billion CNY and 3.95 billion CNY respectively, showing growth rates of 8.8% and 20.7% [1]. - The company’s gross margin remained stable, with a slight increase in 2023 to 75.25% and a slight decrease in Q1 2024 to 76.03% [1]. - The net profit margin decreased to 30.25% in 2023 and 37.24% in Q1 2024, primarily due to increased promotional expenses during the Spring Festival [1]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has strong brand recognition for its core products priced above 600 CNY, and it is expected to continue expanding its market share [2]. - The company is actively developing its presence in both domestic and provincial markets, with a focus on creating model markets outside its home province [2]. - The company’s sales expenses increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 28.90% in 2023 and 24.26% in Q1 2024, reflecting increased advertising and promotional efforts [1]. Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have a PE ratio of 14, 13, and 13 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2]. - The estimated market capitalization is approximately 150.78 billion CNY, with a circulating market capitalization of about 150.35 billion CNY [3].

公司研究 | 年报点评 洋河股份 002304.SZ 买入 （维持） 省内结构升级顺畅，红利性价比凸显 股价（2024年04月26日） 100.09元 目标价格 134.28元 52周最高价/最低价 150/88.3元 总股本/流通A股（万股） 150,645/150,216 A股市值（百万元） 150,780 核心观点 国家/地区 中国 行业 食品饮料 ⚫ 核心业绩：公司发布 23 年年报和 24 年一季报，23 年营收 331.26 亿元 报告发布日期 2024年04月29日 (yoy+10.04%)，归母净利润 100.16亿元(yoy+6.8%)，顺利收官。24Q1营收 162.55 亿元(yoy+8.03%)，归母净利润 60.55亿元(yoy+5.02%)。 1周 1月 3月 12月 ⚫ 蓝色经典系列控货稳健，普通酒放量增长。23年白酒收入 323.9亿元(yoy+10.4%)， 绝对表现 4.86 -0.33 5.55 -31.26 销量和吨价分别变动-14.9%和29.8%，吨价上行明显。拆分来看，23年中高档酒收 相对表现 3.66 -1.47 -1.96 -21.79 入 285.4 亿元 ...

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 食品饮料/必需消费 [ Table_Main[洋ITnaf 河bol]e 股_Ti份tle]( 002304) [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 上次评级： 增持 结构承压，期待业绩中枢稳定 目标价格： 127.80 上次预测： 168.40 公 ——洋河股份2023 年报、2024 一季报点评 当前价格： 100.09 司 訾猛(分析师) 李耀(分析师) 2024.04.29 更 021-38676442 8621-38675854 [交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 新 zimeng@gtjas.com liyao022899@gtjas.com 证书编号 S0880513120002 S0880520090001 52周内股价区间（元） 90.75-149.70 报 总市值（百万元） 150,780 告 本报告导读： 总股本/流通A股（百万股） 1,506/1,502 流通 B股/H股（百万股） 0/0 公司23Q4及 24Q1业绩均不及预期，主要系产业周期后半段产品结构沉降；公司名 流通股比例 100% 义高分红，伴随业绩增长中枢 ...