Core Insights - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the retail sector, anticipating that easing international conditions and domestic policy stimulus will positively influence the sector's performance [3][42]. - The overall retail sales in May 2025 reached 4.13 trillion, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, with goods retail sales increasing by 6.5% [11][14]. Beauty and Personal Care - In May 2025, the cosmetics retail sales grew by 4.4%, with high online penetration leading to diminishing promotional effects. However, leading domestic brands are expected to outperform the market due to the trend of domestic product substitution [11][12]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with rising sales expense ratios expected to pressure profit margins for some brands, although top players with strong product innovation may still achieve robust growth [11][12]. Gold and Jewelry - The gold and jewelry sector saw a significant year-on-year growth of 21.8% in May 2025, benefiting from a low base effect from the previous year. Products that appeal to younger consumers are expected to drive higher growth rates [11][12]. Supermarkets and Department Stores - From January to May 2025, department store sales slightly increased by 1.3%, while supermarket sales grew by 5.7%. Companies that adapt to the current value-for-money consumption trend through supply chain upgrades are expected to perform better [12][14]. Cross-Border E-commerce - The second quarter is expected to face short-term performance pressures due to external environmental challenges. However, leading platform companies are anticipated to demonstrate strong resilience in the medium to long term due to flexible tariff responses and solid product capabilities [12][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies across different sectors, including: - Beauty and Personal Care: Recommended companies include 毛戈平, 丸美生物, and 登康口腔, which are expected to benefit from domestic product substitution and channel optimization [3][42]. - Gold and Jewelry: Companies like 老铺黄金 and 潮宏基 are highlighted for their potential to achieve accelerated growth due to favorable market conditions [3][42]. - Cross-Border E-commerce: Recommended companies include 小商品城 and 安克创新, which are positioned to capitalize on improving trade conditions [3][42]. - Retail: Companies such as 名创优品 and 重庆百货 are suggested for their low valuation and potential for improvement [3][42].

证券代码：002345 证券简称：潮宏基 公告编号：2025-037 广东潮宏基实业股份有限公司 关于控股股东部分股份解除质押的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 广东潮宏基实业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）近日接到公司控股股东 汕头市潮鸿基投资有限公司（以下简称"潮鸿基投资"）函告，获悉潮鸿基投资 将其所持有的本公司部分股份办理了解除质押手续，现将有关事项公告如下： | 一、股东股份解除质押基本情况 | | --- | | 股东名称 | 是否为控股股东 或第一大股东及 | 本次解除质押股份 | | 占其所持股 | 占公司总 | 起始日 | 解除日期 | 质权人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 其一致行动人 | 数量（股） | | 份比例 | 股本比例 | | | | | 汕头市潮鸿基 | 是 | | 3,760,000 | 1.48% | 0.42% | 2024 年 1 月 | 2025 年 7 月 | 中国中金财富证券 | | 投资有限公司 | ...

Group 1 - The report anticipates a steady recovery in demand for apparel and jewelry in H2 2025, with retail sales of clothing and textiles expected to grow by 3.3% and jewelry by 12.3% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [1][35] - The report highlights new trends in consumer demand, including diversification in product offerings, with strong growth in functional categories like outdoor and running apparel, and a rising interest in unique gold jewelry products due to high gold prices [1][35] - The investment focus is on selecting high-performing companies in the apparel sector, particularly those with strong fundamentals and growth potential [1][2] Group 2 - The report recommends leading companies in the functional apparel sector, such as Anta Sports, which is expected to maintain a healthy sales growth trend, with a projected PE ratio of 18 times for 2025 [2][6] - It also suggests focusing on premium jewelry brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Hong Ki, which are expected to benefit from rising gold prices, with Chow Tai Fook's operating profit projected to grow by 10% year-on-year for FY2025 [2][6] - The report notes that the apparel manufacturing landscape is improving, with leading companies like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group expected to benefit from market share gains in the medium to long term, with projected PE ratios of 11 times and 15 times for 2025, respectively [3][6] Group 3 - The report indicates that the overall inventory levels in the apparel sector are healthy, with a manageable increase in stock levels, which is expected to support steady performance in company earnings as consumer demand improves [39][45] - It highlights the strong growth in outdoor and running categories, with significant participation from younger demographics, and notes that brands like Descente and Kolon Sport are experiencing rapid growth due to their effective multi-brand strategies [46][47] - The report emphasizes the importance of channel efficiency and the integration of online and offline retail experiences, which are crucial for driving sales growth in the apparel sector [1][35]

Group 1 - Domestic gold jewelry prices remain stable compared to last Friday, with multiple brands reporting a price of 1005 CNY per gram for 24K gold jewelry [1][3] - Specific brands and their prices include: Zhou Dasheng at 1005 CNY per gram, Caibai Jewelry at 982 CNY per gram, and Chao Hong Ji at 1005 CNY per gram [3] - Other brands such as TSL, Jin Zun, and Zhou Liu Fu also report prices of 1005 CNY and 985 CNY per gram for their gold jewelry [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Bosideng, and Xtep International, among others [10]. Core Insights - The overall performance of the sportswear sector is stable, with a forecasted slowdown in revenue growth for Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025 due to fluctuations in the consumer environment [1][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and quality, anticipating performance recovery and valuation increases in 2025 [4]. - The jewelry sector is experiencing significant disparities in performance among companies, influenced by high gold prices and varying consumer demand for gold jewelry [3][29]. Summary by Sections Sportswear Sector - The sportswear companies are expected to maintain a healthy inventory turnover ratio of around 5 as of the end of Q2 2025, despite a forecasted revenue growth slowdown [1][15]. - Anta Sports is projected to achieve over 10% revenue growth in H1 2025, while Li Ning's revenue is expected to remain flat with a 20% decline in net profit [1][18]. - Xtep International is anticipated to see a 5% revenue growth and a 10% increase in net profit for H1 2025 [1][19]. - 361 Degrees is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 10% to 15% and a similar increase in net profit for H1 2025 [1][19]. A-Share Brand Apparel - The A-share brand apparel sector is experiencing stable terminal retail performance, but individual company performance is diverging [2][20]. - Companies like Hailan Home are expected to see a revenue growth of 0% to 5% in Q2 2025, while Steady Medical is projected to grow by 15% to 25% [2][24]. - The report indicates that companies with healthy terminal performance and effective cost management may see year-on-year growth, while those struggling with revenue scale may face pressure [2][20]. Jewelry Sector - The jewelry sector is benefiting from rising gold prices, with retail sales of gold and silver jewelry expected to grow by 12.3% year-on-year in 2025 [3][29]. - Companies like Chow Tai Fook and Chao Hong Ji are highlighted for their strong product differentiation and market competitiveness, with Chow Tai Fook expected to see a 10% increase in operating profit year-on-year [7][29]. - However, companies like Lao Feng Xiang and Zhou Da Sheng are projected to experience revenue declines of 20% to 10% and 15% to 5%, respectively, due to fluctuating consumer demand [3][29]. Apparel Manufacturing - The apparel manufacturing sector is expected to see stable output in finished garments, while upstream textile manufacturing orders are affected by pessimistic expectations [3][6]. - Shenzhou International is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 10% to 15% in H1 2025, while Wei Xing Co. is expected to see a decline in both revenue and net profit by 10% to 15% [3][6]. - The report suggests that leading companies with integrated and international supply chains are likely to outperform the industry in the medium to long term [3][6].

Group 1: Event Overview - The investor relations activity was a site visit conducted on July 2, 2025, attended by 13 representatives from various financial institutions [1] - The event included a tour of the company showroom and the Zhenbao Museum [1] Group 2: Q&A Session Highlights - Participants engaged in discussions regarding store openings, overseas store status, jewelry product series, new product planning, product structure, and e-commerce business [1] - The communication adhered to regulations, ensuring no significant undisclosed information was leaked during the exchange [1]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic gold jewelry prices remain stable, with several brands reporting a price of 1005 CNY per gram for 24K gold jewelry [1] Price Summary - Zhou Dasheng 24K gold jewelry: 1005 CNY/gram [5] - Caibai Jewelry 24K gold jewelry: 982 CNY/gram [5] - Chao Hongji 24K gold (jewelry ornaments): 1005 CNY/gram [5] - TSL 24K gold jewelry: 1005 CNY/gram [5] - Jin Zun 24K gold jewelry: 1005 CNY/gram [5] - Zhou Liufu 24K gold jewelry: 985 CNY/gram [5]

Group 1 - The domestic gold jewelry price has increased by 7 yuan per gram compared to the previous day, with multiple brands reporting a price of 1005 yuan per gram [1][4] - Major brands such as Chow Tai Seng, Chao Hong Ji, and TSL have their gold jewelry priced at 1005 yuan per gram, while Cai Bai's gold jewelry is priced at 982 yuan per gram [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on cautious and progressive expansion in the jewelry retail sector while enhancing support for franchisees and improving store operations through digitalization and refined management practices [2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a main revenue of 2.252 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.36% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 189 million yuan, up 44.38% year-on-year [3]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 188 million yuan, reflecting a 46.17% increase year-on-year [3]. - The company's debt ratio stands at 41.56%, with investment income recorded at -21,920 yuan and financial expenses at 8.7984 million yuan [3]. - The gross profit margin is reported at 22.93% [3]. Group 2: Market Expansion - The company has a significant presence in Southeast Asia, with over 20 stores in Singapore and Hong Kong, and has opened 2 new jewelry stores in Cambodia this year, totaling 4 stores in the region [3]. - The company plans to accelerate its overseas market expansion to showcase Eastern culture to global consumers and steadily promote its brand internationalization [3]. Group 3: Institutional Ratings - In the last 90 days, 28 institutions have rated the stock, with 22 buy ratings, 5 hold ratings, and 1 neutral rating [4]. - The average target price set by institutions over the past 90 days is 10.74 yuan [4]. Group 4: Earnings Forecast - Various institutions have provided earnings forecasts for the next three years, with projected net profits for 2025 ranging from 4.63 billion yuan to 5.63 billion yuan [5]. - The forecasts for 2026 and 2027 show a continued upward trend in net profits, indicating positive growth expectations for the company [5].

Group 1: Company Performance and Strategy - The company has observed strong terminal performance this year, with franchisees showing high enthusiasm for opening new stores. However, the company will maintain a cautious approach in expanding its franchise channels, focusing on empowering franchisees and improving store operation quality through digitalization and refined management capabilities [1] - The store expansion pace will ultimately be determined by actual market conditions [2] Group 2: International Expansion - The company has a long-standing presence in the Southeast Asian market, with over 20 stores in Singapore and Hong Kong, and has opened 2 stores in Cambodia this year, indicating positive market opportunities [2] - Future plans include accelerating the layout in overseas markets to present the unique charm of Eastern culture to global consumers, thereby steadily promoting the brand's internationalization process [2] Group 3: Product and Business Development - Discussions included the company's jewelry product series, new product planning, product structure, women's bag business, and e-commerce operations, with references to previously disclosed announcements and interactive platform Q&A [2] - The exchange process adhered strictly to relevant regulations, with no incidents of undisclosed significant information leakage [2]