Core Viewpoint - The approval of sac-TMT, a targeted antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) by Kelun Pharmaceutical's subsidiary, marks a significant advancement in the treatment of advanced or metastatic non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with EGFR mutations after progression on EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) [1] Group 1 - Kelun Pharmaceutical's subsidiary, Kelun Biotech, received approval from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) for sac-TMT for a third indication [1] - Sac-TMT is the first and only ADC globally that has shown significant overall survival (OS) benefits compared to platinum-based doublet chemotherapy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic innovative drug industry is transitioning from a follower to FIC/BIC innovation, supported by engineer dividends, abundant clinical resources, and favorable policies, indicating a qualitative improvement as it enters the 2.0 era [1][2] Group 1: Industry Development - The innovative drug sector is expected to benefit from policy reforms in payment systems, enhancing the profitability of innovative drug companies as they commercialize domestic products [2] - The upcoming ESMO conference in mid-October is anticipated to provide new investment opportunities through the release of relevant clinical data and business development (BD) activities [2] Group 2: Investment Climate - The investment landscape has improved since early this year, with a notable reversal in the financing trend for the innovative drug industry, particularly in the A/H market [3] - The recovery of IPO projects and financing activities in the secondary market is expected to positively impact investment data in Q3, benefiting domestic CROs and upstream research sectors [3] Group 3: Policy Support - Continuous advancement of commercial medical insurance policies since 2025 is likely to accelerate payment system reforms, easing supply-demand conflicts and supporting domestic innovation [4] - Fiscal policy enhancements are expected to increase market interest in domestic medical equipment stocks [4] Group 4: Target Companies - A-share targets include: BeiGene (688235.SH), Hengrui Medicine (600276.SH), Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422.SZ), WuXi AppTec (603259.SH), Tigermed (300347.SZ), New Industry (300832.SZ), BGI Genomics (688114.SH), Huatai Medical (688617.SH), and Dian Diagnostics (300244.SZ) [5] - H-share targets include: Kelun Biotech (06990), CSPC Pharmaceutical (01093), China Biologic Products (01177), CanSino Biologics (09926), WuXi Biologics (02269), Junshi Biosciences (01877), and Zai Lab (09688) [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The report continues to recommend innovative pharmaceuticals and medical devices along the industry chain [2][7] - The performance of the pharmaceutical sector in September 2025 was weaker than the broader market, with the SW Pharmaceutical Biotech index declining by 1.7% compared to a 0.6% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [16][22] - The report highlights that the medical service sub-sector performed relatively well, increasing by 1.8%, while medical devices and chemical preparations saw slight declines [22] Summary by Sections - **Investment Recommendations**: The report includes a list of A-share stocks with an "Overweight" rating, including Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, Kelun Pharmaceutical, East China Pharmaceutical, Changchun High-tech, Enhua Pharmaceutical, WuXi AppTec, Tigermed, Lepu Medical, United Imaging Healthcare, and Huatai Medical [7][9] - **Performance Analysis**: The report notes that the monthly portfolio of Guotai Junan Pharmaceuticals outperformed the pharmaceutical index in September 2025, with an average increase of 1.1% compared to a 0.7% increase in the overall pharmaceutical index [12][13] - **Market Comparison**: The report indicates that the pharmaceutical sector's premium level relative to all A-shares is currently at a normal level, with a relative premium rate of 77.5% as of the end of September 2025 [26][28]

Core Viewpoint - Kellen Pharmaceutical experienced a 1.05% increase in stock price on September 30, with a trading volume of 703 million yuan, indicating active market interest [1] Financing Summary - On September 30, Kellen Pharmaceutical had a financing buy-in amount of 72.79 million yuan and a financing repayment of 67.17 million yuan, resulting in a net financing buy-in of 5.62 million yuan [1] - As of September 30, the total financing and securities lending balance for Kellen Pharmaceutical was 911 million yuan, with the financing balance at 908 million yuan, accounting for 1.55% of the circulating market value, which is above the 60th percentile level over the past year [1] - The company repaid 28,400 shares in securities lending on September 30, with a sell amount of 121,200 yuan, and the securities lending balance was 2.85 million yuan, below the 50th percentile level over the past year [1] Business Performance - As of June 30, Kellen Pharmaceutical had 34,200 shareholders, an increase of 2.55% from the previous period, with an average of 38,138 circulating shares per shareholder, a decrease of 2.49% [2] - For the first half of 2025, Kellen Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of 9.083 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.001 billion yuan, down 44.41% year-on-year [2] - Since its A-share listing, Kellen Pharmaceutical has distributed a total of 6.697 billion yuan in dividends, with 3.386 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [2] Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders of Kellen Pharmaceutical included notable funds such as China Europe Medical Health Mixed A, which increased its holdings by 12.69 million shares to 42.60 million shares [3] - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, the fourth-largest shareholder, reduced its holdings by 2.71 million shares to 39.99 million shares [3] - Other significant shareholders included ICBC Frontier Medical Stock A and GF Multi-Factor Mixed, with varying changes in their holdings [3]

Core Viewpoint - The National Healthcare Security Administration has announced the 11th batch of centralized drug procurement, which will take place on October 21, covering 55 varieties and 162 specifications, including key areas such as antiviral and kidney disease treatment drugs [1][2]. Group 1: Drug Procurement Policy - The 11th batch of centralized procurement aims to stabilize clinical practices, ensure quality, prevent collusion, and avoid excessive competition [1]. - The new procurement rules will optimize price control mechanisms to prevent companies from underbidding, which previously led to unsustainable low prices [1][4]. - The focus on high-value consumables and medical devices is expected to benefit companies with strong cost advantages and product quality, particularly in major categories like cardiovascular and anti-infection drugs [4][5]. Group 2: Market Opportunities and Challenges - The centralized procurement policy presents both opportunities and challenges for pharmaceutical companies, prompting some generic drug firms to shift towards a combination of generics and innovation [2][5]. - The "anti-involution" trend in the procurement sector is expected to primarily benefit high-value consumables, which have been adversely affected by previous procurement rounds [2][4]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Perspective - Investors are advised to adopt a long-term perspective, as some innovative drug stocks are currently overvalued following previous market enthusiasm [3][9]. - The ongoing improvement of procurement policies is seen as a catalyst for the healthy development of the pharmaceutical industry, favoring large innovative drug companies with strong R&D capabilities [5][9]. Group 4: Company Performance and Projections - Companies like Kelun Pharmaceutical, Jingxin Pharmaceutical, and Fosun Pharma are highlighted for their strong R&D pipelines and potential for growth, with Kelun having over 30 projects focused on oncology [6][7]. - Fosun Pharma has made significant progress in its innovative transformation, with multiple products showing promising clinical trial results [6][8]. - China National Pharmaceutical Group is expected to have nearly 20 innovative products approved in the next three years, with several projected to exceed sales of 2 billion RMB [8].

Group 1 - The long-term potential of China's healthcare market remains optimistic, but the pharmaceutical sector has surged 64% this year due to licensing optimism, leading to a shift in market focus towards organic revenue/profit growth due to rising risks from potential U.S. executive orders and high valuations [1][2] - UBS downgraded the ratings of CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) and Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422.SZ) to "Neutral" based on weak fundamentals, while changing its industry preference from 3SBio (01530) to Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692) due to its stable traditional business and innovative pipeline [1] - The report indicates that the forward P/E ratio of Chinese pharmaceutical stocks is above the five-year average, with increasing risks from U.S. executive orders shifting market focus back to organic growth [1] Group 2 - CSPC's core traditional product NBP, which accounts for 32% of its 2024 finished drug revenue, continues to lose market share, and its high dependence on unconfirmed business development revenue increases uncertainty [2] - Kelun Pharmaceutical faces weak demand and intense competition, which may result in the lowest revenue growth among peers by 2025 [2] - The expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for CSPC and Kelun from 2024 to 2034 is only half of the average 13% CAGR of 3SBio, Hansoh, and Innovent Biologics [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS maintains an optimistic outlook on the long-term potential of China's healthcare market, but due to a 64% increase in the pharmaceutical sector driven by licensing optimism, along with rising risks from potential U.S. executive orders and high valuations, the market focus is expected to shift back to organic revenue/profit growth [1] Company Ratings - The ratings for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) and Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422) have been downgraded to "Neutral" due to weak fundamentals [1] - The preferred stock in the industry has shifted from 3SBio (01530) to Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692) because of its stable traditional business and innovative pipeline reserves [1] Long-term Pipeline Potential - The report indicates that the best performers in terms of long-term pipeline potential are Hengrui Medicine (600276) and Hansoh Pharmaceutical [1] Valuation and Market Focus - Chinese pharmaceutical stocks have a forward P/E ratio higher than the five-year average, but the rising risk of U.S. executive orders is shifting market focus back to organic growth [1] - CSPC and Kelun are expected to have the lowest compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in revenue from 2024 to 2034, at half the average rate of 13% for 3SBio, Hansoh, and Innovent Biologics [1] Company-Specific Challenges - CSPC's core traditional product NBP, which accounts for 32% of its 2024 finished drug revenue, continues to lose market share, increasing uncertainty due to high reliance on unconfirmed business development revenue [1] - Kelun Pharmaceutical faces weak demand and intense competition, which may lead to the lowest revenue growth among peers by 2025 [1]

Group 1 - UBS maintains a positive outlook on the long-term potential of China's healthcare market, but notes a 64% increase in the pharmaceutical sector this year due to optimistic sentiment from licensing agreements, alongside rising risks from potential U.S. executive orders and high valuations [1] - The focus is expected to shift back to organic revenue/profit growth due to weak fundamentals, leading to downgrades for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group and Kelun Pharmaceutical to "Neutral" [1] - UBS has changed its preferred stock in the industry from 3SBio to Hansoh Pharmaceutical, citing Hansoh's stable traditional business and innovative pipeline reserves [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that the forward P/E ratio of Chinese pharmaceutical stocks is above the five-year average, with rising risks from U.S. executive orders shifting market focus back to organic growth [1] - CSPC and Kelun are projected to have the lowest compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue from 2024 to 2034, at half the average of 13% for peers like 3SBio, Hansoh, and Innovent Biologics [1] - CSPC's core traditional product NBP, which accounts for 32% of its 2024 finished drug revenue, continues to lose market share, increasing uncertainty due to high reliance on unconfirmed business development revenue [1] - Kelun faces weak demand and intense competition, which may result in the lowest revenue growth among peers by 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The chemotherapy drug market in China is experiencing growth due to increasing cancer patient numbers and rising consumer spending, despite competition from targeted therapies. Chemotherapy drugs remain dominant due to their stable efficacy, broad anti-cancer properties, and relatively low prices [1][4][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Chemotherapy drugs are a crucial method for cancer treatment, classified into various types such as alkylating agents, antimetabolites, and plant-derived anticancer drugs [2][3]. - The demand for chemotherapy drugs in China is projected to reach 3.858 billion units with a market size of 135.59 billion yuan in 2024, led by plant alkaloids and antimetabolites [5][6]. - The global chemotherapy drug market is expected to grow from 33.53 billion USD in 2024 to 36.84 billion USD in 2025, with the Asia-Pacific region holding a significant share [4][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese chemotherapy drug market is characterized by a dual driving force of strong demand for certain drug types while facing pressure from generics and targeted therapies [5][10]. - The production of chemotherapy drugs in China is anticipated to increase to 3.432 billion units by 2025, reflecting a growth trend in domestic manufacturing capabilities [6][10]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying with local companies like Heng Rui Medicine and Qilu Pharmaceutical making significant strides in both generic and innovative drug development [10][11]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government has implemented supportive policies to encourage the development of innovative cancer treatment drugs, providing a favorable environment for industry growth [8][9]. - The industry is witnessing accelerated drug approval processes and procurement policies that favor local manufacturers, enhancing competition [10][11]. Group 4: Future Trends - The chemotherapy drug sector is expected to evolve towards precision medicine, with advancements in targeted therapies and combination treatments [11]. - Innovations in drug delivery systems, such as nanotechnology, are anticipated to enhance treatment efficacy and patient outcomes [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in China's chemical pharmaceutical raw material production, with a reported output of 329,000 tons in May 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1] - Cumulative production of chemical pharmaceutical raw materials from January to May 2025 reached 1,585,000 tons, showing a cumulative growth of 5% [1] - The article references a report by Zhiyan Consulting, which provides insights into the market supply and demand trends in the Chinese chemical pharmaceutical industry from 2025 to 2031 [1] Group 2 - The listed companies in the article include Heng Rui Medicine, East China Medicine, Li Zhu Group, Baiyunshan, North China Pharmaceutical, Hai Zheng Pharmaceutical, Fosun Pharmaceutical, Ke Lun Pharmaceutical, En Hua Pharmaceutical, and Xian Ju Pharmaceutical [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is described as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1] - The article emphasizes Zhiyan Consulting's commitment to providing comprehensive industry solutions to empower investment decisions through professional insights and market acumen [1]