费率同比优化，期待成本红利 涪陵榨菜（002507.SZ）/食 品加工 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 4 月 28 日 [Table_Industry] | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 16.00 CNY per share, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by 10% to 15% over the next 12 months [26][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.49 billion CNY in Q1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.53%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.72 billion CNY, up 3.93% year-on-year. The revenue decline is attributed to a high base effect from the previous year [25][5]. - The report anticipates a rebound in profit margins due to a decrease in procurement costs for key ingredients, with expectations for improved gross margins in 2024 [25][5]. Financial Summary - **Revenue (CNY million)**: - 2022A: 2548 - 2023A: 2450 - 2024E: 2653 - 2025E: 2915 - 2026E: 3207 - Growth Rate: 2023A: -3.86%, 2024E: 8.30%, 2025E: 9.86%, 2026E: 10.03% [3][5]. - **Net Profit (CNY million)**: - 2022A: 899 - 2023A: 827 - 2024E: 923 - 2025E: 1020 - 2026E: 1124 - Growth Rate: 2023A: -8.04%, 2024E: 11.69%, 2025E: 10.51%, 2026E: 10.15% [3][5]. - **EPS (CNY/share)**: - 2022A: 1.01 - 2023A: 0.72 - 2024E: 0.80 - 2025E: 0.88 - 2026E: 0.97 [3][5]. - **P/E Ratio**: - 2024E: 16.27 - 2025E: 14.73 - 2026E: 13.37 [3][5]. - **ROE (%)**: - 2023A: 10.03% - 2024E: 10.53% - 2025E: 10.99% - 2026E: 11.45% [3][5]. - **EV/EBITDA**: - 2024E: 9.80 - 2025E: 9.03 - 2026E: 7.96 [3][5]. Profitability and Cost Management - The report highlights a net profit margin of 36.29% in Q1 2024, an increase of 1.91 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved cost management and reduced sales expenses [25][5]. - The gross margin for Q1 2024 was reported at 52.11%, down 4.17 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by high inventory costs and changes in product mix [25][5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from lower procurement costs for key ingredients, with a projected cost of 800 CNY per ton for green vegetables starting from May 2024, which is anticipated to enhance profit margins [25][5]. - The expansion of product channels, particularly in the restaurant sector, is expected to drive revenue growth in 2024 [25][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 15.8 CNY, compared to the current price of 13.02 CNY [6][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a Q1 revenue of 749 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 1.53%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 272 million CNY, an increase of 3.93% year-on-year. The net profit margin stood at 36.29%, up by 1.9 percentage points [15]. - The report highlights that despite a high base and weak demand impacting revenue, the company performed slightly better than expected due to natural channel replenishment. The management's focus on channel inventory control and cash collection contributed to this performance [15]. - The report anticipates that Q1 will be the low point for the year, with expectations for improvement in subsequent quarters driven by national reform initiatives and management adjustments [15]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2,450 million CNY for 2023, 2,667 million CNY for 2024 (8.9% growth), 2,881 million CNY for 2025 (8.0% growth), and 3,112 million CNY for 2026 (8.0% growth) [7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 827 million CNY for 2023, 910 million CNY for 2024 (10.0% growth), 1,012 million CNY for 2025 (11.3% growth), and 1,105 million CNY for 2026 (9.2% growth) [7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.72 CNY for 2023, 0.79 CNY for 2024, 0.88 CNY for 2025, and 0.96 CNY for 2026 [7]. Management and Strategy - The new management team is focusing on internal resource integration and efficiency improvements, with a clear direction for national reform. The management is actively engaging with the market and production bases to address issues and refine growth strategies [15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining low channel inventory and optimizing organizational structure to support future growth [15].

houyn2@essence.com.cn 本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用，请勿传阅。 净利润率 35.3% 33.7% 34.2% 34.6% 34.9% 待改善 净资产收益率 11.6% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 9.9% 股息收益率 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ROIC 20.0% 23.7% 30.4% 29.6% 35.0% 公司快报/涪陵榨菜 数据来源：Wind 资讯，国投证券研究中心预测 本报告版权属于国投证券股份有限公司，各项声明请参见报告尾页。 2 本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用，请勿传阅。 公司快报/涪陵榨菜 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|----------|-------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][13] Core Views - Short-term revenue growth is under pressure due to high base effects from the previous year and weak consumer demand, but channel inventory optimization is expected [2] - The company has reformed its sales incentive mechanism, shifting from dealer stock allocation to dealer sales, which is expected to alleviate dealer pressure and improve inventory management [2] - Cost reductions are anticipated in Q2 2024, driven by lower raw material prices for new ingredients, which are expected to be utilized from May to June 2024 [2] - The company is focusing on optimizing marketing expenses across product categories, with a particular emphasis on driving growth in pickled vegetables and radish categories [2] - The company is expanding its multi-channel strategy, including catering and e-commerce, with differentiated product offerings for online and offline channels [2] Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 750 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 3.9% to RMB 270 million [12] - Gross margin in Q1 2024 declined by 4.2 percentage points year-on-year to 52.1%, primarily due to higher raw material costs and changes in product mix [12] - Sales expenses in Q1 2024 decreased significantly, with the sales expense ratio dropping by 5.6 percentage points year-on-year to 12.2% [12] - The net profit margin in Q1 2024 improved by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year to 36.3%, driven by optimized expense management [12] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow by 10.1% in 2024, reaching RMB 2.696 billion, with further growth of 9.4% and 9.3% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [6][14] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase by 10.6% in 2024 to RMB 914 million, with growth rates of 12.5% and 9.4% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [6][14] - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.72 in 2023 to RMB 0.79 in 2024, RMB 0.89 in 2025, and RMB 0.97 in 2026 [6][14] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline from 18.2x in 2023 to 16.4x in 2024, 14.6x in 2025, and 13.4x in 2026, reflecting improved valuation metrics [6][14] Industry and Market Context - The company operates in the condiments and fermented products industry [4] - The report highlights the company's efforts to optimize its product portfolio and expand its market presence through multi-channel strategies, including catering and e-commerce [2]

要点 公司研究 ——涪陵榨菜（002507.SZ）2024 年一季报点评 销售费用率同比大幅减少，对冲毛利率下滑。 2024 年建议关注公司核心老品需求修复及品类拓展，若品类拓展顺利有望打开 公司成长空间。公司计划保持榨菜品类稳定增长，通过消费者调研进行产品优化。 除榨菜外，公司亦规划向"榨菜+"、榨菜亲缘品类、川式复合调料和川渝预制 菜四个方向发展，目前川渝预制菜处于研发调试与市场调研阶段，后续建议关注 推进进展。 风险提示：原材料价格波动风险；行业竞争高于预期风险。 当前价：13.02 元 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-------------|-------| | | | | | 市场数据 | | | | | | | | 总股本 (亿股) | 11.54 | | | 总市值(亿元)： | 150.24 | | | 一年最低/最高 (元) ： | 11.60/19.82 | | | 近 3 月换手率： | 58.21% | | 相关研报 需求疲软致业绩承压，关注餐饮渠道拓展情况— —涪陵榨菜（002507.SZ）2023 年年报点评 （2024 ...

2024 年 04 月 27 日 证券研究报告 报 基本数据 2024-04-26 总市值（亿元） 150 流通股本（百万股） 1138 日均成交额（百万元） 139.69 司 究 究 买入(维持) 事件 —涪陵榨菜（002507.SZ）公司事件点评报告 2024 年 4 月 26 日，涪陵榨菜发布 2024 年一季度业绩报告。 ▌业绩符合预期，成本/费用优化拉升利润 开发空白市场助力榨菜主品类扩张，升级柔性化产线赋能小 体量新品开发，榨菜主业在三四线城市市占率仍有提升空 间，后续公司计划通过渠道裂变/下沉开拓空白市场，并借助 自媒体品牌传播/包装焕新/口味开发等措施拓宽消费人群， 获取市场增量。与此同时，公司针对产能进行更新替换，通 过柔性化生产适应小体量新品开发节奏，2024 年公司榨菜酱 有望实现低基数下收入同增 40%-50%的目标。组建餐饮团队 推进连锁客户开发，2023 年起，公司逐渐建立餐饮团队，主 要负责榨菜、豆瓣酱等产品市场开拓，通过开发专业餐饮经 销商等方式与头部餐饮连锁建立合作关系，随着公司销售团 队标准化、餐饮小菜食材供应商定位不断巩固，2024 年公司 有望实现餐饮团队营收增速 20 ...

重庆市涪陵榨菜集团股份有限公司监事会 关于公司2024年第一季度报告的审核意见 重庆市涪陵榨菜集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第五届监事会第十 六次会议于 2024 年 4 月 26 日以现场结合通讯方式召开，本次会议由监事会主席 肖大波先生主持，监事会三名成员全部出席了会议。 经审核，监事会认为：董事会编制和审核公司 2024 年第一季度报告的程序 符合法律、行政法规和中国证监会的规定，报告内容真实、准确、完整地反映了 上市公司的实际情况，不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 公司监事：肖大波 陈通 张婉华 2024 年 4 月 27 日 根据《证券法》第八十二条的规定，公司监事会对《公司 2024 年第一季度 报告》进行了认真审核，发表审核意见如下: ...

Financial Performance - The company's revenue for Q1 2024 was CNY 748,596,673.92, a decrease of 1.53% compared to CNY 760,199,455.92 in the same period last year[8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 3.93% to CNY 271,629,099.47 from CNY 261,354,400.36 year-on-year[8] - The company reported a net profit of 271,629,099.47, an increase from 261,354,400.36 in the previous period, representing a growth of approximately 1.05%[50] - Comprehensive income for the current period is ¥271,629,099.47, compared to ¥261,354,400.36 in the previous period, reflecting a growth of 3.5%[22] - The company’s operating profit for the current period was 321,836,755.15, slightly up from 309,614,797.76 in the previous period[50] - The total profit for the current period was 321,135,235.27, compared to 309,423,865.04 in the previous period, showing an increase of approximately 3.3%[50] Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities improved significantly, with a net outflow of CNY -33,908,288.57, a 77.25% reduction from CNY -149,024,221.72 in the previous year[8] - Net cash flow from operating activities improved by 77.25%, reaching -33,908,288.57 CNY compared to -149,024,221.72 CNY in the previous period[12] - Cash inflow from investment activities totaled 1,731,461,080.17 CNY, a 39.04% increase from 1,245,253,118.29 CNY[12] - Net cash flow from investment activities turned positive at 112,221,034.89 CNY, a significant improvement of 161.03% from -183,877,935.12 CNY[12] - The company experienced a net cash inflow from operating activities of 78,312,746.32, a significant recovery from a net outflow of 333,703,755.63 in the previous period[53] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of the reporting period reached CNY 9,162,266,469.62, reflecting a 4.48% increase from CNY 8,769,393,453.21 at the end of the previous year[8] - Current assets increased to 7,291,364,541.68 CNY from 6,934,152,475.88 CNY, reflecting a growth in liquidity[19] - Total liabilities increased to ¥646,230,156.90 from ¥524,986,239.96, marking a rise of 22.9%[20] - Total equity attributable to shareholders of the parent company rose to ¥8,516,036,312.72 from ¥8,244,407,213.25, an increase of 3.3%[20] Inventory and Receivables - The company's inventory increased by 48.38% to CNY 735,027,620.57, primarily due to increased raw material purchases[11] - Accounts receivable increased significantly by 1,424.59% to CNY 160,127,928.34, reflecting the company's credit policy adjustments[11] - Accounts receivable rose significantly to 160,127,928.34 CNY from 10,502,991.40 CNY, indicating improved sales or collection efforts[18] - Inventory levels increased to 735,027,620.57 CNY from 495,370,121.54 CNY, suggesting potential growth in production or sales[18] Research and Development - Research and development expenses rose by 142.21% to CNY 1,934,196.23, driven by investments in new product development[11] - Research and development expenses for the current period amounted to 1,934,196.23, compared to 798,547.45 in the previous period, indicating a significant increase of 142.5%[50] Shareholder Information - The total number of common shareholders at the end of the reporting period is 108,552[34] - The largest shareholder, Chongqing Fuling State-owned Assets Investment and Operation Group Co., Ltd., holds 35.26% of shares, totaling 406,897,920 shares[34] Tax and Financial Expenses - The company reported a decrease in tax payments by 31.69%, totaling 87,420,975.59 CNY compared to 127,974,168.36 CNY previously[12] - The company’s tax expenses for the current period were 49,506,135.80, compared to 48,069,464.68 in the previous period[50] - The company’s financial expenses showed a net income of -31,974,875.21, compared to -29,185,829.43 in the previous period, indicating a slight increase in financial costs[50] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and investing in new technologies to enhance competitiveness[11]