Key Points Industry or Company Involved - **Company**: 凯因网络 (Kaiyin Network) - **Industry**: Gaming Industry Core Views and Arguments - **2015 Gaming Industry Outlook**: The gaming industry is expected to see a new cycle in 2015, with potential for cross-seasonal trends and a rise in "small bull" stocks. This cycle is not primarily driven by earnings but by business potential and technological advancements. - **Product Development**: Kaiyin Network has a robust pipeline of new products, including "Dou Ge Dalu", "Damo Note", "Dragon's Valley World", and innovative game categories like VR and AR games. They also plan to expand into new genres like SRG and Legend games. - **Business Expansion**: The company is focusing on expanding its distribution channels, both domestically and internationally, targeting regions like Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, and potentially Europe. - **AI and VR Integration**: Kaiyin Network is actively exploring the integration of AI and VR technologies into its games, with a VR game already launched on Steam and PlayStation. - **IP Derivatives**: The company is developing derivative products based on its IPs, such as comic books and merchandise. - **Market Integration**: The company is working towards integrating various aspects of the gaming industry, including market normalization and platform development. - **AR and VR**: The company is keeping a close eye on AR and VR technology, considering its potential application in gaming. - **AI and Game Development**: The company is exploring the application of AI in game development, but the relationship between AI and the gaming industry is not as direct as in the media industry. - **Economic Outlook**: The company acknowledges the economic challenges but believes the gaming industry has resilience and potential for growth. - **Global Market Expansion**: The company is focusing on expanding its presence in the global market, leveraging its strengths in storytelling, art, and game design. Other Important Points - **2014 Performance**: The company's performance in 2014 was stable, with a focus on research and development and distribution. - **2015 Growth Expectations**: The company expects a stable growth rate in 2015, with potential for higher growth in overseas markets and new product launches. - **Content Expansion**: The company is exploring new content formats, including short-form videos and live streaming. - **Investment Opportunities**: The company's overseas business and new product launches are expected to be key growth drivers in 2015.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has launched its first AI industrial pipeline, empowering all aspects of game production, with products being released smoothly and a rich product pipeline [3] - The "Xingyi" large model application has significantly reduced repetitive labor and communication costs in the development process, ensuring stable and consistent quality in game content development and unleashing the creative potential of developers [2] - The company has a diversified product release strategy, with short-term, medium-term, and long-term product reserves, including rapid iteration based on market conditions, IP-based product development cooperation, and comprehensive construction of its own IP to build a game product matrix [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to be 5,389 million yuan in 2024, 6,499 million yuan in 2025, and 7,519 million yuan in 2026 [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1,919 million yuan in 2024, 2,490 million yuan in 2025, and 2,936 million yuan in 2026 [3] - EPS is forecasted to be 0.89 yuan in 2024, 1.16 yuan in 2025, and 1.36 yuan in 2026 [3] - The P/E ratio is estimated to be 15.9x in 2024, 12.3x in 2025, and 10.4x in 2026 [3] Product Releases - The company released several games in October, including the MMO game "Zhushen Jie: Yingji," the mini-game "Baigong Ling," the overseas version of "Monster Alliance" titled "Guai Ka Jiu Cha Dui," the officially licensed mobile game "LaTale: Rainbow Orange," and the new fairy tale casual RPG mobile game "Xianjian Qixia Zhuan: New Beginning" in Vietnam [2] AI Technology Application - The "Xingyi" large model application, launched in April, covers a complete toolchain including interface generation, map generation, animation generation, code generation, and numerical generation, significantly improving development efficiency [2] - The "Yueqian" tool supports developers in generating various game elements directly through AI tools, ultimately automating the creation of complete games [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Kaiying Network (002517 SZ) for the first time [2] Core Views - Kaiying Network has established a solid foundation with its nostalgic games, particularly in the Legend and Miracle game categories, which have a broad user base, strong stability, and high ARPU values [2] - The company completed the acquisition of Zhejiang Shenghe in 2023, which contributed RMB 737 million in net profit in H1 2024, a 38 5% YoY increase, and is expected to reach new highs in profit contribution for 2024 [2] - The company's chairman has been increasing his shareholding since 2020, with three increases in 2024 alone, reaching a 14 77% stake by the end of Q3 2024, and the chairman and executives have pledged not to reduce their holdings for the next five years, demonstrating strong confidence in the company's long-term development [4] - Kaiying Network has a robust pipeline of new games, including "Liangshan Legend," "Taishang Butian Scroll," "Tomb Raider: Departure," "Douluo Dalu: Zhuxie Legend," "Dragon Nest World," and "Romance of the Three Kingdoms: The World Returns to the Heart," with a rich IP portfolio supporting its product diversification strategy [4] - The company is deeply involved in AIGC, with its self-developed "Xingyi" large model already enhancing multiple projects, and it has invested in an AI-driven 3D male-oriented romantic companion product "EVE," which has garnered over 1 million views on Bilibili and is expected to pioneer the male-oriented romantic companion market [4] Financial Forecasts - The company's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 4 295 billion in 2023 to RMB 7 055 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 17 13% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from RMB 1 462 billion in 2023 to RMB 2 236 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 16 44% [5] - The company's ROE is forecasted to remain strong, ranging from 23 86% to 27 87% over the forecast period [5] - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 19 92x in 2023 to 13 03x in 2026, indicating potential undervaluation [5] Industry and Market Performance - The company's market capitalization stands at RMB 29 123 56 billion, with a circulating market capitalization of RMB 25 899 91 billion [3] - The stock price closed at RMB 13 53 on December 2, 2024, with a 52-week range of RMB 8 33 to RMB 14 55 [3] - The company's asset-liability ratio is 19 41%, and its net asset per share is RMB 2 81 [3]

证券代码:002517 证券简称:恺英网络 恺英网络股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号: 2024-007 | 投资者关系 | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 活动类别 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 ☑其他 (投资者交流会) | | | 海通证券、兴业证券、上海证券、德邦证券、华金证券、中邮证 | | | 券、太平洋证券、国联证券、安信证券、中银证券、中原证券、 | | | 招商证券、国海证券、东吴证券、华福证券、中信建投、国泰君 | | | 安、东方财富、广发证券、开源证券、中信证券、国盛证券、华 | | | 泰证券、西南证券、华鑫证券、山西证券、长江证券、国元证券、 | | | 华创证券、中泰证券、中金公司、东方证券、浙商证券、国金证 | | | 券、华源证券、光大证券、国联安、财通基金、平安资管、华泰 | | | 资管、泰康资管、Citadel、恒越基金、国寿资管、国寿养老、交 | | 参与单位名称 | 银施罗德、华安基金、国泰基金、农银汇理、申万菱信、百年人 | | | 寿、东海基金、永赢基金、华宝基 ...

Industry Overview - The National Press and Publication Administration officially announced the approval information for online games in November 2024, with a total of 112 domestic online games and 7 imported online games approved [1] Company Highlights - Kaiying Network's subsidiary, Shanghai Kaiying Network Technology Co Ltd, published the game "Honghuang Ao Jian," which is operated by Hangzhou Wenwei Network Technology Co Ltd, and successfully obtained a license [1] - Another subsidiary, Shanghai Shuangmeng Network Technology Co Ltd, published the game "Xianyuan Lu," which is operated by Shanghai Kaiying Software Technology Co Ltd, and also successfully obtained a license [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is strong, with Q1-3 revenue reaching 3.93 billion yuan (YoY +30%) and net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.28 billion yuan (YoY +18%) [4] - The company is actively advancing AI+IP initiatives, including the application of its self-developed "Xingyi" large model and the approval of its AI NPC text generation algorithm [5] - The company has a rich product pipeline, with several games in development and some already released, such as the casual puzzle game "Baigong Ling" and the mobile game "Rainbow Orange" [5] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024E is projected to be 5.32 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.74 billion yuan [7] - The company's gross margin for 2024E is expected to be 79.3%, with an ROE of 26.0% [7] - The company's EPS for 2024E is forecasted to be 0.81 yuan per share [7] Market Data - The company's closing price on November 6, 2024, was 14.06 yuan, with a PB ratio of 5.0 and a dividend yield of 1.42% [2] - The company's market capitalization is 26.91 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 2.15 billion shares and a circulating A-share capital of 1.91 billion shares [2][3] Product Pipeline - The company has a diverse product pipeline, including games like "Tomb Raider: Departure," "Douluo Dalu: Legend of the Evil," "Dragon Nest World," and "Nazarick: Rise" [5] - The company is also developing games based on popular IPs such as "BLEACH: Thousand-Year Blood War," "Ultraman," "The King of Fighters," and "The Condor Trilogy" [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][16]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with a quarterly revenue of 1.37 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 30% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 10%. The gross profit for the quarter was 1.13 billion yuan, up 29% year-over-year and 11% quarter-over-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 470 million yuan, reflecting a 32% year-over-year increase and a 23% quarter-over-quarter increase [1]. - The company has a solid foundation in its legacy products, particularly in the nostalgic gaming segment, which has shown resilience. Key titles like "Angel Battle" and "Original Legend" performed well, contributing to a robust revenue stream [1]. - The company has a rich pipeline of innovative IP products, with several new releases expected to drive significant revenue growth in upcoming quarters. Notable upcoming titles include "Tomb Raider: Journey" and "Douluo Continent: Legend of Evil" [1]. Financial Summary - The company adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 to 5.55 billion, 6.38 billion, and 7.25 billion yuan, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 29%, 15%, and 14%. The net profit forecasts were adjusted to 1.73 billion, 1.98 billion, and 2.23 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 19%, 15%, and 13% [1][2]. - The current market valuation is based on a target price of 18.42 yuan, suggesting a potential upside of 36% from the current price of 13.54 yuan [3]. Financial Indicators - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 4.295 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth rate of 15.3%. The net profit for 2023 is expected to be 1.462 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-over-year growth of 42.6% [2][7]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.68 yuan in 2023 to 1.04 yuan by 2026, with a corresponding decrease in the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 20 to 13 over the same period [2][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][2][5] Core Views - The company has shown continuous revenue growth, with a rich pipeline of new products expected to contribute to future performance [1][3] - The projected revenue for 2024 is estimated at 54.15 billion, with a net profit of 1.76 billion, indicating a strong growth trajectory [1][3] - The company is expected to maintain a healthy gross margin, with projections for 2024 indicating a gross margin of 82.60% [3] Financial Summary - Revenue growth from 2022A to 2026E is projected as follows: 3,725.53 million in 2022A, 4,295.39 million in 2023A, 5,414.55 million in 2024E, 6,483.05 million in 2025E, and 6,938.91 million in 2026E [1][3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 1,025.17 million in 2022A to 2,327.91 million in 2026E [3] - The company's operating expenses are projected to increase significantly, with a forecast of 1,624.37 million in 2024E [3] Market Performance - The current stock price is 13.54 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 8.40-13.71 yuan [1] - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 29.15 billion [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 28.43 in 2022A to 12.52 in 2026E, indicating potential for value appreciation [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a reported revenue of 3.927 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.280 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing year-on-year increases of 29.65% and 18.27% respectively [1][4]. - The product portfolio is robust, featuring both nostalgic and innovative games, with significant performance in overseas markets, particularly a 334.95% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue [2][10]. - The company is expanding its IP matrix, with numerous well-known IPs and a rich product pipeline, including several games that have recently launched or are in development [3][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.372 billion yuan and a net profit of 471 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.33% and 31.52% respectively [1][4]. - The full-year profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.984 billion yuan, 2.364 billion yuan, and 2.633 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.92, 1.10, and 1.22 yuan [4][12]. Product Portfolio - The company’s product lineup includes popular nostalgic games such as "Original Legend" and "Blood of the Heroes," which have established competitive barriers [2][10]. - Innovative titles like "Gundam Battle" and "Nasirak King" have performed well, with "Nasirak King" reaching the second position on the free charts shortly after its launch [2][10]. Overseas Expansion - The company reported overseas revenue of 126 million yuan in the first half of 2024, with plans to release several titles in markets such as Singapore, Malaysia, and Vietnam [2][10]. - The overseas business is expected to continue its high growth trajectory, supported by strategic releases in various international markets [2][10]. IP Development - The company has accumulated a diverse range of IPs, including "Legendary World" and "Overlord," and is focusing on nurturing original IPs like "Seasonal Order," which has received national support [3][11]. - Several new games have received approval for release, and key products are set to launch in Q4 2024, laying a solid foundation for future performance [3][11].