| 证券代码：002714 | 证券简称：牧原股份 | 公告编号：2025-022 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127045 | 债券简称：牧原转债 | | | 股东名称 | | 持股 | 本次业务办 | 本次业务办 | 占其所 | 占公司 | 已质押股份情况 已质押股份 | 占已质 | 未质押股份情况 未质押股 | 占未质 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 持股数量 | | 理前质押股 | 理后质押股 | 持股份 | 总股本 | | | | | | | | 比例 | 份数量 | 份数量 | 比例 | 比例 | 限售和冻结 | 押股份 | 份限售和 | 押股份 | | | | | | | | | 数量 | 比例 | 冻结数量 | 比例 | | 秦英林 | 2,086,287,906 | 38.19% | 25,210,000 | 25,210,000 | 1.21% | 0.46% | 0 | - | 0 | - | | 牧原集团 | 848,762,153 | 15 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 major consumer index increased by 0.28%, closing at 22,960.31 points with a trading volume of 14.755 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the major consumer index has risen by 6.27%, while it has decreased by 0.04% over the last three months and increased by 0.81% year-to-date [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the major consumer index include Kweichow Moutai (45.05%), Wuliangye (11.78%), Yili (8.19%), Muyuan Foods (4.97%), Shanxi Fenjiu (4.73%), Luzhou Laojiao (4.43%), Wens Foodstuff (4.14%), Haitian Flavoring (3.08%), Dongpeng Beverage (2.2%), and Yanghe Brewery (2.11%) [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 66.27% of the major consumer index holdings, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 33.73% [2] - The major consumer index is composed entirely of consumer-related stocks, with a 100% allocation [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a projected increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [17]. Core Views - The company has turned around its performance year-on-year, achieving a total revenue of 137.95 billion yuan, a 24.43% increase, and a net profit of 17.88 billion yuan, marking a significant recovery [4][11]. - The increase in revenue and profit is attributed to higher sales volume and prices in the pig farming business, alongside a decrease in breeding costs [4][8]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.72 yuan per 10 shares, reflecting confidence in its development [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 41.17 billion yuan, a 47.61% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.4 billion yuan, indicating a strong recovery [4]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 reached 37.54 billion yuan, a remarkable increase of 279.50% year-on-year [4]. Industry Outlook - The pig farming industry is expected to see a dual increase in supply and demand in 2025, with the average price of pigs rising above the industry cost line [8]. - The scale of pig farming is projected to exceed 70% in 2024, indicating a trend towards increased industry concentration [8]. Cost Management - The company's breeding costs have decreased to approximately 12.9 yuan/kg as of February 2025, down from around 14 yuan/kg in 2024 [8]. - The slaughtering segment has shown improvement, with a reduction in average losses per head from 70 yuan in 2023 to about 50 yuan in 2024, achieving profitability in December [9]. Future Projections - The company anticipates a pig output of 72 million to 78 million heads in 2025, with a projected net profit of 20.55 billion yuan [11]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 3.76 yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10.26 [11].

| 证券代码：002714 | 证券简称：牧原股份 | 公告编号：2025-021 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127045 | 债券简称：牧原转债 | | 牧原食品股份有限公司 关于股东部分股权解除质押的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 牧原食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于近日收到公司股东秦英林先 生的通知，获悉秦英林先生将所持有本公司的部分股权办理了解除质押手续，具 体事项如下： 一、 股东部分股权解除质押的基本情况 | 股东名称 | 是否为控股股东 | 本次解除质 | 占其所持 | 占公司总股 | 起始日 | 解除日期 | 质权人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 或第一大股东及 | 押股份数量 | 股份比例 | 本比例 | | | | | | 其一致行动人 | | | | | | | | 秦英林 | 是 | 49,000,000 | 2.35% | 0.90% | 2024/3/18 | 2025/3/24 | 云南国际 ...

点击注册小程序 报告摘要 事件： 公司发布2024年年度报告。 2024年公司实现营收1379.47亿元，同比+24.43%，实现归母净利润178.81亿 元，上年同期为-42.63亿元，同比扭亏为盈。 单季度来看，24Q4公司实现营收411.72亿元，同比 +47.61%，实现归母净利润74亿元。 出栏双位数增长目标，仔猪结构性放量提升出栏弹性 出栏目标方面，公司预计2025年将出栏商品猪7200-7800万头，仔猪800-1200万头，总出栏量区间在8000- 9000万头，较24年7160.2万头的总出栏量提升11.7%~25.7%，大出栏基数之上再度提出双位数的增量预 期。25年公司在出栏结构上进行调整，将仔猪作为增量弹性的贡献点，通过订单交易锁定价格和利润，帮 助实现更加稳定的生产计划。 养殖降本增效空间持续释放 成本方面，24年公司成本约14元/公斤，25年2月公司成本已降至12.9元/公斤。从养殖指标角度来看，24年 底公司PSY在29以上，整体提升空间较大。公司以种猪性能、饲料营养调整以及养殖管理优化为核心降本 路径，有望全面提升养殖效率，全年12元/公斤的成本目标兑现可期。 资金、产能做足准 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance in 2024, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by favorable market conditions and operational efficiencies [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 137.947 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.43% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 17.881 billion yuan, up 519.42% year-on-year [1]. - The adjusted net profit was 18.747 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 565.61% [1]. - In Q4 alone, the company reported revenue of 41.172 billion yuan, a 47.61% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.4 billion yuan, up 405.67% [1]. Operational Efficiency - The company sold 71.6 million pigs and processed 12.52 million pigs, with total pork product sales reaching 1.42 million tons [2]. - The company has improved breeding efficiency and optimized feed formulas, which has led to reduced breeding costs [2]. - As of January 2025, the total breeding cost is approximately 13.1 yuan/kg, with a target to reach 12 yuan/kg [2]. Industry Position and Shareholder Returns - The company is a leading player in the pig farming industry, benefiting from strong management practices [2]. - The company has revised its shareholder return policy, committing to distribute at least 40% of the distributable profits as cash dividends annually [2]. - The long-term profitability of the industry is expected to remain stable, particularly for companies with management and cost advantages [2]. Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 19.69 billion yuan, 19.84 billion yuan, and 22.46 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for these years are 3.60 yuan, 3.63 yuan, and 4.11 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10.75, 10.67, and 9.42 [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown a significant recovery in profitability, with a net profit of 17.88 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 519.42% [6] - The company is expected to maintain its cost advantage in pig farming, with a projected average breeding cost of approximately 14 yuan/kg in 2024, decreasing to around 13 yuan/kg by the end of the year [6] - The company plans to increase its dividend distribution, proposing a cash dividend of 5.72 yuan per 10 shares, which would result in a total cash dividend of 7.588 billion yuan for 2024 [6] Financial Forecasts - The company's revenue is projected to be 133.54 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 14.42 billion yuan [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.64 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.50 [5][9] - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 215.61 billion yuan by 2027, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 53.8% [9] Operational Insights - The company aims to enhance its slaughtering business, with a target utilization rate of over 60% by 2025, up from 43% in 2024 [6] - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, particularly in Southeast Asia, through partnerships to provide breeding technology and hardware support [8] - The company plans to invest 9 billion yuan in capital expenditures in 2025, focusing on pig house renovations and breeding platform development [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 137.95 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 17.88 billion yuan, which is a significant increase of 519.42% year-on-year [5] - The company has achieved notable cost reductions, with a per-kilogram breeding cost decreasing from 15.8 yuan at the beginning of the year to 13 yuan by the end of the year, and further down to 12.9 yuan in February 2025 [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.72 yuan per 10 shares for the 2024 fiscal year, amounting to a total of 30.83 billion yuan [7] - The company is expected to maintain substantial profits despite a projected decline in pig prices in 2025, with estimated earnings per share (EPS) of 3.09 yuan, 3.96 yuan, and 5.79 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 38.26 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 209 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 145.8 billion yuan [4] Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 137.95 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 17.88 billion yuan [5][9] - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 was approximately 37.99 billion yuan [9] Cost Management - The average breeding cost for the company was approximately 14 yuan/kg in 2024, with a target of 12 yuan/kg for 2025 [6] Shareholder Returns - The proposed cash dividend for 2024 is 5.72 yuan per 10 shares, leading to a dividend payout ratio of 42.44% [7] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have EPS of 3.09 yuan, 3.96 yuan, and 5.79 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 12X, 10X, and 7X [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant cost advantages and steady growth in output, leading to consistent performance in the industry [4][5] - The company reported a revenue of 1379.47 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 178.81 billion yuan, up 519.42% [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 240.66 billion yuan, 287.50 billion yuan, and 379.51 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 4.41 yuan, 5.26 yuan, and 6.95 yuan [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1362.29 billion yuan from pig farming, with a sales volume of 7160.2 million pigs, marking a 12.21% increase [5] - The company's breeding costs decreased from approximately 14 yuan/kg in 2024 to 12.9 yuan/kg in February 2025, indicating a strong trend in cost reduction [5] - The slaughtering business generated revenue of 242.74 billion yuan in 2024, with a reduction in per-head losses to around 50 yuan [6] Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1470.23 billion yuan, 1568.06 billion yuan, and 1732.69 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 240.66 billion yuan, 287.50 billion yuan, and 379.51 billion yuan [7][12] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 19.1% in 2024 to 27.5% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to rise from 13.0% to 21.9% over the same period [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 46.15 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 38.26 CNY [1][10]. Core Views - The company has achieved significant growth in its pig farming business, with both volume and price increasing, alongside effective cost control measures leading to a turnaround in profitability [7][8]. - The report highlights a robust expansion in pig production capacity and a continuous reduction in breeding costs, aiming for an average cost of 12 CNY/kg by 2025 [7][8]. - The company is strategically advancing its slaughtering business, which has shown improved profitability, achieving monthly profits by the end of 2024 [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 137,947 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit of 17,881 million CNY, marking a significant recovery from a loss of 42,630 million CNY in the previous year [7][8]. - The company sold 71.6 million pigs in 2024, a 12.20% increase from the previous year, with a notable rise in average selling prices [7][8]. - The complete cost of pig farming decreased to 14 CNY/kg in 2024, with further reductions expected in early 2025 [7][8]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for EPS is 3.55 CNY for 2025, 4.47 CNY for 2026, and 5.82 CNY for 2027, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 11, 9, and 7 [2][10]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth rate of 6.01% in 2025, followed by 9.97% in 2026 and 2027 [2][8]. Business Segmentation - The pig farming segment is expected to maintain a steady growth rate, with projected sales volume increases of 20% in 2025, followed by 7% in the subsequent years [8]. - The slaughtering and meat processing segment is also expected to grow, with revenue forecasted to increase by 20% in 2025 [8]. Valuation Comparison - The company is compared with industry peers, showing a slightly higher PE ratio than the industry average, reflecting its position as a market leader with potential for high-quality growth [10].