金融界8月11日消息，有投资者在互动平台向牧原股份提问：董秘您好，请问公司7月份的生猪养殖完全 成本是多少？全程成活率是多少？肥猪日增重是多少？育肥阶段料肉比是多少？ 公司回答表示：您好，公司2025年7月的生猪养殖完全成本在11.8元/kg左右，全程成活率在87%左右， 断奶到上市的成活率在92%左右，肥猪日增重在860克左右，育肥阶段料肉比在2.7左右。感谢您的关 注！责任编辑：栎树 ...

牧原股份（002714）董事长秦英林在官方会议上已经透露了其落实产能调控的主要做法。一是减少能繁 母猪存栏。在已经减少17万头的基础上,计划再减少13万头,到年底前减到330万头。二是下调肥猪出栏均 重。目前头均重125公斤，比5月末下降5公斤,计划7月底降至123公斤,8月底降至120公斤。三是控制二次 育肥。从6月初起,全面停止向二次育肥客户销售肥猪。 新希望在6月份也曾表示,公司严控销售流程,对商品猪只开屠宰类检疫票,不对二次育肥客户渠道销售商 品猪。 生猪行业去产能大幕拉开。农业农村部最新调度显示，当前，我国生猪产能阶段性偏高，为防范生产大 起大落、价格大涨大跌风险，将实施生猪产能综合调控，引导调减约100万头能繁母猪。 能繁母猪存栏是生猪供应的"总开关"，直接决定10个月后的商品猪出栏规模，若调减能繁母猪存量，10 个月后生猪出栏量将相应减少。这意味着，下半年和明年春节后生猪出栏将明显增加，由于生猪的自然 生长周期，从现在开始调减能繁母猪产能，调控效果将于10个月后落地。 在国内猪肉弱需求、强供给的背景下，年内生猪价格持续走低，尤其是进入7月猪肉消费淡季以来，消 费不振使得猪价进一步走低。中国养猪网 ...

Investment Rating - The overall industry rating is "Positive" for the agriculture sector, indicating expected returns above the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [6][51]. Core Views 1. **Livestock Industry Chain** - The swine market is experiencing rising epidemic risks and policy support, which is expected to enhance the motivation for capacity reduction. The average price of live pigs is currently 13.71 CNY/kg, down 0.62 CNY from last week, while the average price for 15 kg piglets is 31.24 CNY/kg, down 1.48 CNY [5][19]. - The operating rate of large-scale slaughterhouses has increased to 31.9%, up 0.36 percentage points from last week and 7.26 percentage points year-on-year. The total output of pigs from 16 listed companies reached 100.75 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 16.9% [5][19]. - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 40.43 million heads, down 370,000 from the peak last year. The average profit per head for self-bred pigs is 45 CNY, an increase of 2 CNY from last week [6][20]. 2. **Poultry Industry** - Chicken prices are experiencing fluctuations, with the average price for broiler chickens at 3.54 CNY/lb, up 0.13 CNY from last week. The average price for white feather chickens is 13.9 CNY/kg, up 0.2 CNY [21][23]. - The industry is at a historically high capacity level, with limited imports in the first seven months of the year. The profitability per chicken has turned positive at 0.62 CNY [21][23]. - The yellow chicken market is also seeing price declines, with average prices at 9.77 CNY/kg for Lihua yellow chicken, down 0.02 CNY from last month [23][24]. 3. **Seed and Planting Industry** - The seed industry is benefiting from ongoing policy optimization and the promotion of genetically modified organisms (GMOs). The long-term investment value of leading seed companies is highlighted as they are at historical low valuations [10][24]. - Grain prices are experiencing short-term adjustments but are expected to rise in the medium term due to reduced imports and adverse weather conditions. The average purchase price for corn is 2441 CNY/ton, down 4 CNY from last week [12][24]. Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. - Buy [3] - Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. - Buy [3] - Suqian Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. - Buy [3]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - The pig sector is experiencing a halt in the growth of breeding sows, indicating a significant expectation gap in the market. The average price of pigs is stable at 14.34 CNY/kg, while the price of piglets has reached a new low this year. The supply pressure continues to increase, and the seasonal demand is weak, suggesting a potential seasonal decline in pig prices [1][2][11] - The dairy sector is nearing the end of its capacity reduction phase, with expectations for a rebound in raw milk prices. The beef cycle may have started, with companies that can withstand the current downturn showing strong profit potential [3][13][14] - The pet industry is witnessing a rise in domestic brands and a positive trend in pet food exports, indicating robust growth in the pet economy. Key recommendations include companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [15][16] - The poultry sector is focusing on the breeding gap for white and egg-laying chickens, with expectations for price improvements driven by demand. The yellow chicken market is also showing signs of recovery due to supply constraints and improving demand [4][17][19] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - The average price of pigs is stable at 14.34 CNY/kg, with self-breeding profits around 130 CNY per head. The price of piglets has hit a new low, and the average weight of pigs at market is high, indicating supply pressure [1][11] - The breeding sow numbers have decreased, with some institutions reporting a halt in growth. The market is expected to see capacity reduction due to policy guidance and weak demand [2][12] Dairy and Beef Sector - The raw milk price is expected to rebound as the dairy industry approaches the end of its capacity reduction phase. The beef cycle may have started, with companies that can adapt showing strong profit potential [3][14] Pet Sector - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands growing rapidly. Pet food exports are also on the rise, with significant sales growth reported [15][16] Poultry Sector - The white chicken and egg-laying chicken markets are focusing on breeding gaps, with expectations for price increases driven by demand. The yellow chicken market is showing signs of recovery due to supply constraints [4][17][19] Planting Sector - The focus is on achieving food security through self-sufficiency and enhancing breeding strategies. The government is promoting agricultural technology innovation to support this goal [5][21][22] Feed and Animal Health Sector - The feed sector is recommended for companies with increasing market share and consistent performance, such as Haida Group. The animal health sector is focusing on breaking through homogenized competition with innovative products [6][23][24]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the Chinese pig industry is undergoing a significant adjustment in production capacity, particularly focusing on reducing the number of breeding sows to stabilize pig prices and mitigate the cyclical volatility of the market [1][2][3]. Industry Overview - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has announced a plan to reduce the breeding sow population by approximately 1 million heads to prevent extreme fluctuations in production and prices [1]. - As of June, the national pig inventory was 424 million heads, with breeding sows at 40.43 million heads, which is 103.7% of the normal holding capacity, indicating a need for capacity adjustment [2]. - The current pig cycle is the sixth, characterized by shorter cycles, increased short-term volatility, and a supply-demand imbalance where supply is strong but demand is weak [3]. Price Trends - The price of live pigs has reached a new low for the year at 13.77 yuan/kg as of August 10, reflecting a cumulative decline of approximately 13.9% since the beginning of the year [2][5]. - The price drop has significantly impacted the profitability of listed pig companies, with many reporting double-digit declines in sales revenue in July compared to the previous year [1][5]. Company Performance - Major listed companies like Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs have reported declines in sales volume and revenue due to the seasonal drop in demand and low prices [6][7]. - For instance, Muyuan Foods sold 6.355 million pigs in July, a decrease of 9.5% month-on-month, with a sales revenue of 11.639 billion yuan, down 10.41% year-on-year [6]. - Smaller companies also faced challenges, with some reporting their lowest sales volumes of the year in July [6]. Future Outlook - The ongoing production capacity adjustments are expected to have a long-term impact on pig prices, with potential for price recovery if capacity reduction is significant [3]. - The industry is likely to transition towards a more stable and high-quality development phase, with larger companies benefiting from improved cost control and cash flow capabilities [1][7].

Key Points - The company announced the interest payment for its convertible bonds, "Mu Yuan Convertible Bonds," for the fourth year, covering the period from August 16, 2024, to August 15, 2025, with an interest amount of 12 RMB (including tax) per bond [1][3] - The annual interest calculation formula is provided, where the interest amount (I) is calculated as the product of the total face value of the bonds held (B) and the annual coupon rate (i) [2] - The interest payment will be made once a year, with the payment date being the anniversary of the bond issuance date. If the payment date falls on a holiday, it will be postponed to the next working day [2][3] - The bondholders will receive their interest payments through the designated securities companies or other recognized institutions after the company transfers the funds to the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation [4] - Individual bondholders are subject to a 20% withholding tax on the interest income, while qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII and RQFII) are exempt from corporate income tax and value-added tax for this period [4][5] - The bond's credit rating is AA+ with a stable outlook, as per the tracking rating report issued by the relevant authority [2]

| 证券代码：002714 | 证券简称：牧原股份 | 公告编号：2025-076 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127045 | 债券简称：牧原转债 | | 牧原食品股份有限公司 可转换公司债券 2025 年付息的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 1、"牧原转债"将于 2025 年 8 月 18 日按面值支付第四年利息，每 10 张 "牧原转债"（面值 1,000 元）利息为 12 元（含税）。 牧原食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2021 年 8 月 16 日发行可转 换公司债券（债券简称：牧原转债，债券代码：127045），根据公司发布的《公 开发行可转换公司债券募集说明书》（以下简称"《募集说明书》"）和《公开 发行可转换公司债券上市公告书》（以下简称"《上市公告书》"）的有关条款 的规定，在"牧原转债"的计息期间内，每年付息一次，现将"牧原转债"2024 年 8 月 16 日至 2025 年 8 月 15 日期间的付息事项公告如下： 一、可转换公司债券基本概况 1、转债简称：牧原转债 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a strong policy catalyst and a resonating fundamental backdrop, indicating a positive outlook for the pig farming sector as prices are expected to rise from current lows [4][28] - The report suggests that the investment logic for pig farming is improving marginally, driven by both fundamental and policy factors, with a recommendation for specific companies in the sector [5][28] - The report notes that the domestic feed market is benefiting from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices [5][28] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The report indicates that the current rhythm of pig shipments is suppressing short-term prices, with the national average price for pigs at 13.67 yuan/kg as of August 8, 2025, down 0.60 yuan/kg week-on-week and down 6.97% year-on-year [12][4] - The average weight of pigs at market as of August 7, 2025, is 127.80 kg, showing a slight decrease week-on-week but an increase year-on-year [12][4] - The utilization rate of breeding facilities is reported at 51.6%, reflecting a decrease both month-on-month and year-on-year [12][4] Weekly Perspective - The investment logic for pig farming is showing signs of improvement, with expectations for prices to rise in the second half of 2025 due to both fundamental and policy support [28] - The report recommends several companies including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others as key investment opportunities in the pig farming sector [5][28] Market Performance - The agricultural sector outperformed the broader market by 0.4 percentage points during the week of August 4-8, 2025, with the agricultural index rising by 2.52% [33][36] - Specific stocks such as Zhongji Health and Zhenghong Technology saw significant gains, leading the market [41][33] Price Tracking - As of August 8, 2025, the average price for pigs is reported at 13.71 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.62 yuan/kg from the previous week [44][45] - The report also tracks prices for other agricultural products, noting fluctuations in chicken and beef prices during the same period [44][45]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity to prevent significant fluctuations in production and prices, as the current pig production capacity is at a high level, with a need to reduce approximately 1 million breeding sows to stabilize the market [1][5][9]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - China's pork production and consumption account for about 60% of total meat consumption, with a current breeding sow inventory of 40.43 million, which is 103.7% of the normal level [1]. - As of the end of June, the national pig inventory reached 424 million, reflecting a 2.2% increase [1]. - The inventory of pigs over 5 months old and the number of newborn piglets in the first half of the year are at historical highs, indicating a significant increase in pig slaughter expected in the second half of the year and after the Spring Festival [2]. Group 2: Price Trends and Risks - The pig price has dropped to 14.53 yuan per kilogram in the first week of August, a year-on-year decrease of 28.1%, highlighting the risk of unseasonably low prices during peak consumption periods [4]. - Experts warn that without timely regulation, pig farming may face losses, especially in the first half of next year after the Spring Festival [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Measures - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs plans to maintain the total number of breeding sows around 39.5 million through effective production capacity regulation [5][8]. - Large pig farming enterprises are being encouraged to take the lead in capacity regulation by rationally eliminating low-quality breeding sows and controlling the weight of pigs being sold [5][6]. - Measures include stopping the sale of pigs for secondary fattening to mitigate market disturbances and ensuring that all fattened pigs are directed to slaughterhouses [6][7]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The pig industry is currently in its sixth cycle, with ongoing efforts to stabilize production and prices through comprehensive capacity regulation [4][9]. - The goal is to achieve a stable and healthy development phase for the pig market, moving away from the cyclical boom and bust patterns that have characterized the industry [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity to prevent significant fluctuations in production and prices, aiming to reduce the breeding sow population by approximately 1 million heads to stabilize the market [1][8][19]. Industry Overview - China's pork production and consumption account for about 60% of total meat consumption, with the current pig production capacity being temporarily high [1]. - As of the end of June, the national pig inventory was 424 million heads, an increase of 2.2%, with the breeding sow inventory at 40.43 million heads, which is 103.7% of the normal level [1]. Price Trends - The price of pork has dropped to 14.53 yuan per kilogram in the first week of August, a year-on-year decrease of 28.1% [6]. Production Adjustments - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has indicated that if timely adjustments are not made, there could be losses in pig farming, especially after the Spring Festival next year [3]. - The inventory of pigs over 5 months old and the number of newborn piglets in the first half of the year are at historical highs, suggesting an increase in pig slaughter in the second half of the year [4]. Capacity Control Measures - The government plans to maintain the total breeding sow population at around 39.5 million heads, with a need to reduce production capacity by about 1 million heads [8]. - Leading pig farming enterprises are encouraged to take the lead in capacity regulation, rationally eliminating low-quality and inefficient breeding sows, and controlling the weight of pigs at slaughter [10][18]. Industry Dynamics - The pig farming industry is currently in its sixth cycle, with ongoing risks of significant production and price fluctuations due to increased production efficiency and slowing pork consumption growth [6]. - Large enterprises account for over 30% of the total pig output, and many have begun to reduce production capacity to avoid future price volatility [11]. Strategic Initiatives - Companies like Muyuan have reduced their breeding sow inventory from 3.621 million heads to 3.3 million heads, effectively decreasing supply by 9 million heads [18]. - Measures such as reducing the weight of pigs before sale and stopping sales to secondary fattening customers are being implemented to stabilize the market [13][16]. Conclusion - The comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity is crucial for maintaining reasonable production levels, ensuring stable pork supply and prices, and promoting the healthy and high-quality development of the pig industry [19].