Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 46.15 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 38.26 CNY [1][10]. Core Views - The company has achieved significant growth in its pig farming business, with both volume and price increasing, alongside effective cost control measures leading to a turnaround in profitability [7][8]. - The report highlights a robust expansion in pig production capacity and a continuous reduction in breeding costs, aiming for an average cost of 12 CNY/kg by 2025 [7][8]. - The company is strategically advancing its slaughtering business, which has shown improved profitability, achieving monthly profits by the end of 2024 [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 137,947 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit of 17,881 million CNY, marking a significant recovery from a loss of 42,630 million CNY in the previous year [7][8]. - The company sold 71.6 million pigs in 2024, a 12.20% increase from the previous year, with a notable rise in average selling prices [7][8]. - The complete cost of pig farming decreased to 14 CNY/kg in 2024, with further reductions expected in early 2025 [7][8]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for EPS is 3.55 CNY for 2025, 4.47 CNY for 2026, and 5.82 CNY for 2027, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 11, 9, and 7 [2][10]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth rate of 6.01% in 2025, followed by 9.97% in 2026 and 2027 [2][8]. Business Segmentation - The pig farming segment is expected to maintain a steady growth rate, with projected sales volume increases of 20% in 2025, followed by 7% in the subsequent years [8]. - The slaughtering and meat processing segment is also expected to grow, with revenue forecasted to increase by 20% in 2025 [8]. Valuation Comparison - The company is compared with industry peers, showing a slightly higher PE ratio than the industry average, reflecting its position as a market leader with potential for high-quality growth [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1379.47 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit of 178.81 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [1] - The company sold 71.602 million pigs in 2024, a 12.2% increase year-on-year, with a target of 72-78 million for 2025 [1] - The complete cost of pig farming decreased from approximately 14 yuan/kg in 2024 to a target of 12 yuan/kg in 2025, contributing to improved profitability [1] - The slaughtering segment achieved monthly profitability in December 2024, with a reduction in average losses per head from 70 yuan in 2023 to 50 yuan in 2024 [2] - The company is expanding its overseas business and enhancing its technological capabilities in smart farming applications [2] Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 206.29 billion yuan, 220.67 billion yuan, and 353.65 billion yuan respectively, with EPS expected to be 3.88, 4.03, and 6.46 yuan [3] - The company’s PE ratios for the same years are forecasted to be 10, 10, and 6 times [3] - Revenue is expected to grow from 142.48 billion yuan in 2025 to 162.78 billion yuan in 2027, with a growth rate of 13.77% in 2027 [5]

为推进牧原食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）的国际化进程，支撑 公司海外业务布局，公司子公司瑞谷国际农产有限公司投资设立境外全资子公 司越南牧原有限公司，主要经营业务为提供生猪养殖方面的技术服务、智能化 养殖设备等。公司本次投资设立境外全资子公司将有利于公司积累海外公司运 营经验，扩大海外业务渠道，为公司布局海外市场打下坚实基础。 | 证券代码：002714 | 证券简称：牧原股份 | 公告编号：2025-020 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127045 | 债券简称：牧原转债 | | 牧原食品股份有限公司 关于投资设立越南全资子公司并完成注册登记的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本次投资事项不构成关联交易，亦不构成《上市公司重大资产重组管理办 法》规定的重大资产重组。根据《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》等法律法规 和《公司章程》的相关规定，本次投资事项无需提交公司董事会、股东大会审 议。 近日，公司已就本次投资设立境外全资子公司事宜完成注册登记手续，并 取得了《营业执照》，现就其相关注册登记事项公告如下： ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 137.95 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 17.88 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from loss to profit [4][6] - The company sold 71.60 million pigs in 2024, including 65.48 million market pigs, 5.66 million piglets, and 0.465 million breeding pigs [6] - The company has optimized its breeding costs, with the total cost of pig farming reduced to approximately 13 yuan/kg by the end of 2024, and the average annual cost around 14 yuan/kg [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.72 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 3.08 billion yuan, highlighting its investment value [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 137.95 billion yuan and a net profit of 17.88 billion yuan, with significant growth in both metrics [4][6] - The company has a breeding capacity of approximately 81 million pigs per year and has established 10 slaughterhouses with a capacity of 29 million pigs per year [6] Cost Management - The company has seen continuous optimization in breeding costs, with production indicators improving, including a PSY (Pigs Sold per Sow per Year) above 29 and a survival rate close to 86% [6] - The average daily weight gain for fattening pigs is around 800 grams, and the feed-to-meat ratio is approximately 2.8 [6] Dividend Policy - The company announced a total dividend of 7.58 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting its strong financial performance and commitment to returning value to shareholders [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 129.60 billion yuan, 133.01 billion yuan, and 158.85 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 16.61 billion yuan, 16.36 billion yuan, and 27.65 billion yuan for the same years [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant turnaround in 2024, achieving a net profit of 17.88 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 4.26 billion yuan in 2023, with a revenue increase of 24.43% to 137.95 billion yuan [7] - The company experienced a notable increase in pig sales, with a total of 71.60 million pigs sold in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.2% [7] - The average selling price of pigs increased to 16.75 yuan/kg, up 11.62% year-on-year, contributing to an estimated profit of 250 yuan per pig sold [7] - The company aims to reduce production costs further, targeting a cost of 12 yuan/kg by 2025, down from 14 yuan/kg in 2024 [7] - The company plans to increase its pig output to between 72 million and 78 million pigs in 2025, reflecting a growth of 10% to 19% year-on-year [7] - The company has implemented a cash dividend plan, proposing a distribution of 5.72 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 30.83 billion yuan, which indicates a commitment to shareholder returns [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 135.50 billion yuan in 2025, a slight decrease of 1.8% from 2024, with net profit expected to reach 20.83 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 16.5% [6][9] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 24.1% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 23.1% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 3.81 yuan in 2025, up from 3.30 yuan in 2024 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1] Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1379.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 178.81 billion yuan, reversing a loss of 42.63 billion yuan in the previous year [5] - The company plans to slaughter between 72 million to 78 million pigs in 2025, with a total of 71.6 million pigs slaughtered in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.2% [5] - The company has improved its gross profit margin significantly, with a comprehensive gross margin of 19.05% in 2024, up by 15.94 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company has established a nationwide pork sales network, with 70 service stations across 20 provincial-level administrative regions [5] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 1379.47 billion yuan in 2024 to 1465.04 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 6.20% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 178.81 billion yuan in 2024 to 189.46 billion yuan in 2025, a growth rate of 5.95% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 3.47 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11 times [6] Operational Highlights - The company’s total pig slaughtering volume in 2024 was 12.52 million heads, with a revenue contribution from slaughtering and meat products of 24.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.03% [5] - The company has achieved a monthly profit in its slaughtering business as of December 2024 [5] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 1876.49 billion yuan in 2024 to 2823.87 billion yuan in 2025 [7] Key Financial Ratios - The gross margin is expected to improve to 19.86% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 13.69% [9] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 21.53% in 2025 [9] - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease to 58.68% by the end of 2024 [5]

公司点评报告 · 农林牧渔行业 24年生猪量价齐升,屠宰业务实现单月盈利 2025 年 3 月 19 日 核心观点 牧原股份(股票代码:002714.SZ) 资料来源:Wind,中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 | 维持评级 | | --- | | 推荐 | 分析师 谢芝优 ☎: 021-68597609 网: xiezhiyou_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519020001 | 市场数据 | 2025-3-19 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 002714.SZ | | A 股收盘价(元) | 38.74 | | 上证指数 | 3426.43 | | 总股本(万股) | 546,276.82 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 381,072.29 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 1476.27 | 2025-3-19 相对沪深 300 表现图 30% 20% 10% (10% -10% -20% ● 事件:公司发布 2024年年度报 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has exceeded expectations for its 2025 output plan, with costs dropping to 12.9 yuan per kilogram as of February 2025 [1][5] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 137.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.4%, and a net profit of 17.88 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability [3][9] - The company plans to slaughter 72-78 million commodity pigs and 8-12 million piglets in 2025, with a strong foundation laid by a 12.2% year-on-year increase in breeding sows [3][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net profit of 17.88 billion yuan, with a proposed cash dividend of 5.72 yuan per 10 shares [2][3] - The company's total assets at the end of 2024 were 187.65 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 58.7%, down 3.43 percentage points year-on-year [3][9] - The company expects to achieve a revenue of 150.66 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 22.46 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.6% [9] Production and Sales - The company plans to increase its pig output to 90.5 million, 95.9 million, and 100.49 million from 2025 to 2027, with commodity pig output projected at 78 million, 81 million, and 83.43 million respectively [7] - The company has achieved a significant increase in piglet sales, with 2.19 million sold in January-February 2025, accounting for 16% of total output [3][6] Cost Management - The company successfully reduced its breeding costs to approximately 13.1 yuan per kilogram in Q4 2024, with a target to lower it to 12 yuan per kilogram in 2025 [5][6] - The cost of weaned piglets has reached 260-270 yuan per head, providing a competitive advantage in the industry [3][5]

当前公司海外业务团队正在熟悉当地市场及产业发展状况，公司会根据未来战略发展需求制定不同国家 和地区的业务发展方式及目标。 2024年，公司与越南本土养殖公司BAF达成合作协议，为其提供养猪技术服务方案、硬件支持、人员培 训等，致力于提升越南当地生猪养殖企业的养殖水平和管理能力。 人民财讯3月20日电，牧原股份3与19日在2024年年度报告交流会上表示，当前，越南及周边东南亚国家 的生猪养殖行业从业者对于非瘟防控、猪场改造、硬件升级、生物安全防控体系等需求较为迫切，这也 成为公司海外业务开展的切入点。 ...

证券研究报告 牧原股份 (002714 CH) 2024 年养猪增出栏降成本，屠宰逐步扭亏 养殖端，2024 年公司销售生猪 7160 万头、同比+12%，其中商品猪 6548 万头。受益于猪价上涨+公司降本效果明显，2024 年牧原生猪头均盈利约 259 元（行业平均约 170 元），我们估算育肥完全成本约 14 元/公斤。Q4 出栏生猪 2146 万头，同比+28%、环比+21%，猪价虽在 Q4 环比略有下滑， 但公司育肥完全成本亦明显改善至约 13.2 元/公斤，支撑公司生猪头均盈利 维持在 349 元的高位（行业平均约 218 元）。屠宰端，2024 年公司屠宰生 猪 1278 万头、同比小幅减少，但公司持续优化客户结构与产品结构、提升 运营质量，头均亏损下降至 50 元左右，并在 2024 年 12 月实现单月盈利。 年底延续高分红回报股东，2025 年或延续高质量成长 公司同步公告了 2024 年度利润分配方案及 2025 年中期分红规划。2024 年 拟向全体股东每 10 股派发现金红利 5.72 元、分红总额 31 亿元，叠加前三 季度已分红 45 亿元、2024 年度股份回购金额 10 亿元 ...