比音勒芬（002832.SZ） 优于大市 第三季度收入下滑 4%，持续表现好于行业 第三季度收入下滑 4%，表现持续好于同行。比音勒芬是主营高端运动生活的 男装品牌。2024 年在消费力持续疲软的市场环境下，以及去年高基数基础上， 前三季度公司收入同比+7.3%，归母净利润同比+0.55%，显著好于其他服装 品牌。第三季度相较上半年行业环境进一步变差，公司业绩降幅仍好于行业， 第三季度公司收入同比-4.4%至10.6 亿元。毛利率同比-2.0 百分点至73.8%； 销售、财务、研发费用率基本稳定，分别同比+0.2/+0.6/-0.3 百分点；主要 由于职工薪酬及折旧摊销费用增加，第三季度管理费用同比+82.7%至 1.2 亿 元，同时受负向经营杠杆影响，管理费用率同比+5.2 百分点至 11.0%。非经 项目中，资产减值损失较去年同期减少，主要系本期库存结构优化计提存货 跌价减少所致，占收入比例同比改善 1.5 百分点。进而归母净利率同比-4.2 百分点至 26.6%，归母净利润同比-17.3%至 2.8 亿元。 存货金额同环比增长，存货周转基本保持稳定。三季度末，存货金额同比 +28.2%，环比+16.3% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 24.3 yuan, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2024 [2][4][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.3%. However, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 2024 decreased by 4.37% and 17.32% respectively [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 declined by 2 percentage points to 73.8%, while the net profit margin decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 26.6% [1]. - The company is actively nurturing new brands, having appointed Daniel Kearns as the Chief Creative Officer for Cerruti 1881 and Kent&Curwen, indicating a strategic focus on brand development and international expansion [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2022: 2,885 - 2023: 3,536 - 2024E: 3,718 (5.2% YoY growth) - 2025E: 4,195 (12.8% YoY growth) - 2026E: 4,727 (12.7% YoY growth) [3] - Net profit (in million yuan): - 2022: 728 - 2023: 911 - 2024E: 922 (1.3% YoY growth) - 2025E: 1,064 (15.4% YoY growth) - 2026E: 1,226 (15.2% YoY growth) [3] - Earnings per share (in yuan): - 2022: 1.27 - 2023: 1.60 - 2024E: 1.62 - 2025E: 1.86 - 2026E: 2.15 [3][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.1 billion in Q3 2024, a decrease of 4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 280 million, down 17% year-on-year [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3 billion, an increase of 7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 760 million, reflecting a slight increase of 0.6% [1]. - The company is focusing on internationalization, high-end positioning, youth engagement, and standardization as part of its new strategic direction for the next decade [1]. - The company has upgraded its brand image and store designs, enhancing the shopping experience and increasing brand awareness [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 76.4%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 25.4%, down 1.7 percentage points [1]. - The financial forecast for 2024-2026 estimates earnings per share (EPS) of 1.7, 1.9, and 2.3 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 11X, 10X, and 8X [5][6]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is approximately 3.93 billion, with a growth rate of 11.1% [6][10]. Brand Development - The company has launched a new image for its brand, enhancing the quality of life experience for consumers with new display areas and interactive spaces [3]. - The sub-brands are actively engaging in community operations related to outdoor activities, significantly boosting brand influence [4]. - The KENT & CURWEN brand has successfully launched its new autumn/winter collection, receiving positive feedback from media and industry professionals [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.0 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.30%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 762 million yuan, up 0.55% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 4.4% year-on-year, with net profit down 17.32% year-on-year, primarily due to increased expenses related to new brand initiatives. Despite this, the company's performance remains relatively resilient compared to peers [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 gross margin decreased by 1.95 percentage points to 73.79%, attributed to a higher proportion of online sales and changes in product mix. The expense ratio increased by 5.72 percentage points to 41.78%, mainly due to rising management expenses linked to new brand team building [3] - As of the end of Q3 2024, inventory increased by 28.2% year-on-year to 888 million yuan, with inventory turnover days extending by 8 days to 304 days. Operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 119 million yuan, down 67% year-on-year, primarily due to increased payments for goods and expenses [4] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 from 1.06 billion, 1.24 billion, and 1.45 billion yuan to 920 million, 1.05 billion, and 1.21 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 12, 10, and 9 times [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance showed a decline in revenue and profit, with expectations for improved sales during the winter clothing season [3]. - The company has a strong cash position of 2.61 billion yuan as of September 2024, indicating robust financial strength [3]. - The report has adjusted the profit forecast for 2024-2026 downwards by 20%-25% due to uncertain consumer demand [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.0 billion yuan, up 7.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 760 million yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [1]. - Q3 revenue was 1.06 billion yuan, down 4.4% year-on-year, and net profit was 280 million yuan, down 17.3% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 76.4% [2]. Sales Channels - Direct sales accounted for 66.0% of revenue in the first half of 2024, with year-on-year growth of 2.4% [2]. - The company opened a net of 8 new stores in the first half of 2024, bringing the total to 1,263 stores [2]. Cost and Cash Flow - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 650 million yuan, down 33.0% year-on-year due to increased payments for goods and expenses [2]. - Inventory increased by 25.5% to 890 million yuan as of September 2024, with inventory turnover days rising to 304 days [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects revenue growth rates of 6.84%, 11.39%, and 9.83% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4]. - The estimated EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 1.61 yuan, 1.86 yuan, and 2.11 yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12, 11, and 9 [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 24.44 CNY, reflecting a PE ratio of 15 times for 2024, which is above the industry average [4][5]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance is significantly better than the industry average despite short-term profit fluctuations due to increased investment in international brand development. The company continues to expand its store network while focusing on store profitability, indicating potential for high-quality growth in the future [3][4]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 3.0 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 760 million CNY, up 0.6% year-on-year. However, Q3 revenue was 1.06 billion CNY, down 4.4% year-on-year, and net profit was 280 million CNY, down 17.3% year-on-year [4][5]. Financial Summary - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 1.61, 1.85, and 2.08 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates of 1.88, 2.20, and 2.53 CNY due to weak consumer demand affecting terminal sales [4]. - The company opened 59 new stores and closed 51 in H1 2024, resulting in a net increase of 8 stores, with a focus on improving store operational quality and profitability [4][5]. - As of the end of Q3, inventory increased by 28% year-on-year to 890 million CNY, primarily due to increased stock for new and existing brands [4]. Market Data - The company's current stock price is 19.63 CNY, with a 52-week price range of 16.68 to 33.66 CNY and a total market capitalization of 11.203 billion CNY [6][5]. - The company has a net asset value per share of 8.91 CNY, with a current price-to-book ratio of 2.2 [7]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 3.763 billion CNY in 2024, with a net profit of 917 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 6.4% and 0.7% respectively [10][11]. - The report indicates a stable EBIT margin of around 28.6% for 2024, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 17.5% [10][11]. Comparable Company Valuation - The report includes a comparison with similar companies, indicating that the company is positioned favorably within the industry, with a projected PE ratio of 12 for 2024 [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 23.92 [6][15]. Core Views - The company has shown robust growth despite uncertainties in consumer recovery, with a 7.30% year-on-year increase in revenue to RMB 3.00 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, and a slight increase in net profit of 0.55% to RMB 762 million [1][4]. - The company is expanding its brand matrix and has launched international brands like CERRUTI 1881 and KENT&CURWEN, which are expected to drive growth in the luxury segment [2][4]. - The company is focusing on high-end consumers, successfully building user barriers, and differentiating itself from competitors amid a "cost-performance" consumption trend [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue decline of 4.37% year-on-year to RMB 1.06 billion, while the gross margin decreased by 1.95 percentage points to 73.79% [2][3]. - The management expense ratio increased by 2.19 percentage points to 12.20% due to the costs associated with building overseas brand teams [2][3]. - The net profit margin decreased by 4.17 percentage points to 26.60% [2]. Operational Efficiency - As of Q3 2024, inventory increased by 28.14% year-on-year to RMB 888 million, primarily due to winter stock preparations [3]. - The company maintains a healthy cash flow with net cash from operating activities at RMB 652 million [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 911 million, RMB 1.05 billion, and RMB 1.20 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.60, RMB 1.84, and RMB 2.11 [4][19]. - The report anticipates a stable gross margin of 77.5% from 2024 to 2026, with a gradual decline in sales and management expense ratios [4][19]. Market Positioning - The company is expected to maintain a steady expansion pace, with a projected increase in the number of direct and franchise stores by 40 each year from 2024 to 2026 [9]. - The online channel is anticipated to grow significantly, with revenue projections of RMB 214 million, RMB 236 million, and RMB 260 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target market value of 17 billion yuan, representing a 52% upside potential from the current market value [7] Core Views - The company's performance significantly outperforms the industry, with Q1-3 2024 revenue reaching 3 billion yuan (up 7.3% YoY) and net profit of 762 million yuan (up 0.55% YoY) [4] - Despite a challenging domestic retail environment, the company achieved double-digit growth in revenue and profit, with Q3 revenue at 1.06 billion yuan (down 4.4% YoY) and net profit of 283 million yuan (down 17.3% YoY) [4] - The company's high-end brand positioning supports a gross margin of 76.4% in Q1-3 2024, with Q1/Q2/Q3 gross margins at 76.0%/81.3%/73.8% respectively [5] - The launch of the new brand Kent&Curwen marks the beginning of the company's second growth curve, with multiple direct stores opening in China and a successful debut at the 2025SS London Fashion Show [6] Financial Performance - The company's Q1-3 2024 operating cash flow was 650 million yuan, with a cash conversion ratio of 0.86, and cash and financial assets totaling over 2.6 billion yuan [6] - Inventory at the end of Q3 2024 was 890 million yuan (up 28% YoY), with inventory turnover days at 304 days (up 8 days YoY) [6] - The company's net profit margin for Q1-3 2024 was 25.4%, down 1.7 percentage points YoY [5] - The company's ROE for Q1-3 2024 was 15.0%, with expected ROE for 2024-2026 at 17.5%/18.4%/19.3% respectively [8] Future Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow to 3.778 billion yuan in 2024 (up 6.8% YoY), 4.159 billion yuan in 2025 (up 10.1% YoY), and 4.575 billion yuan in 2026 (up 10.0% YoY) [8] - Net profit is projected to reach 920 million yuan in 2024 (up 1.0% YoY), 1.06 billion yuan in 2025 (up 15.2% YoY), and 1.22 billion yuan in 2026 (up 15.1% YoY) [8] - The company's EPS is expected to be 1.61 yuan in 2024, 1.86 yuan in 2025, and 2.14 yuan in 2026 [8] Industry Comparison - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is projected at 12/11/9 times, compared to the industry average PE of 21/16/14 times for comparable companies [11] - The company's market value as of October 31, 2024, is 11.2 billion yuan, significantly lower than the industry leader Anta Sports' market value of 234.7 billion yuan [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][6][8] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 3 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a growth of 7.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 762 million RMB, up by 0.55% [1] - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue decline of 4.37% to 1.064 billion RMB and a net profit drop of 17.32% to 283 million RMB, attributed to increased expenses from new brand investments [1] - The company’s gross margin remained stable at 76.4%, while net profit margin decreased by 1.71 percentage points to 25.4% [1] - The new brand KENT&CURWEN launched in September 2024, with both online and offline stores opening, is expected to contribute positively to revenue [1] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 921 million RMB, 1.061 billion RMB, and 1.217 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13, 11, and 10 [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3 billion RMB and a net profit of 762 million RMB, with a gross margin of 76.4% [1][3] - The company’s management expenses increased by 43.49% to 268 million RMB, primarily due to new brand promotional costs [1] - The company’s cash and cash equivalents decreased by 44.18% to 1.21 billion RMB, mainly due to increased investments in financial products [1] Brand Development - The KENT&CURWEN brand was launched in London in September 2024, with a flagship store opening on Tmall in October and seven offline stores established in various regions [1] - The company aims to enhance brand recognition and sales performance, expecting significant revenue contributions from the new brand [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue expanding its main brand and improve store efficiency, with a focus on internationalization and high-end market positioning [1] - The projected net profits for 2024 to 2026 indicate a steady growth trajectory, supported by ongoing brand diversification and digital transformation efforts [1][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a revenue growth of 7% year-on-year for Q1 to Q3 2024, with a total revenue of 3 billion yuan and a net profit of 760 million yuan, indicating strong performance compared to the industry [2] - The main brand continues to outperform the industry, with ongoing development of sub-brands that open up long-term growth opportunities [4] - The company is expected to maintain stable profits in 2024, with revenue growth projected to continue in the medium to long term due to channel expansion [6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 to Q3 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 76.4%, with a net profit margin of 25.4%, despite a slight decline in profitability metrics [2][3] - In Q3 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 4% year-on-year, with a net profit decrease of 17%, attributed to changes in product mix [3] - The company’s cash flow management remains stable, with a net operating cash flow of 650 million yuan, approximately 0.9 times the net profit for the same period [6] Brand and Channel Development - The main brand is focusing on product innovation and marketing strategies to enhance consumer engagement, including collaborations for promotional activities [4] - The company has seen positive performance in its direct sales channels, with a 35% increase in e-commerce revenue [5] - The total number of stores increased to 1,263 by the end of H1 2024, with plans for further expansion in H2 [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 919 million yuan in 2024, with a projected P/E ratio of 13 times [7] - Long-term growth is anticipated as the company continues to expand its brand portfolio and enhance its market presence [7]