Core Viewpoint - The civil aviation market is approaching a peak in passenger flow as summer approaches, raising questions about the performance of regional airlines and smaller airports during the upcoming travel season [1] Group 1: Challenges Facing Regional Airlines - Resource limitations are a major constraint on the development of regional airlines, with many small cities experiencing slow growth in passenger markets and operational issues for regional airlines and airports [1][10] - Passengers often prefer high-speed rail over regional flights due to factors such as safety, comfort, and convenience, which impacts the demand for regional air travel [1][10] Group 2: Current State of Regional Aviation - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has been optimizing policies to promote regional aviation, resulting in an increase in the number of regional routes and improved connectivity for cities with regional airports [11] - As of the end of 2024, the number of domestic transport airports in China reached 263, with a total passenger throughput of approximately 1.46 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.86% [12] Group 3: Future Prospects for Regional Airlines - The potential for growth in regional aviation is significant, with expectations that the number of airports in China will exceed 270 by 2025, primarily consisting of regional airports [13] - The development of regional airlines requires efficient collaboration between airlines and airports, as well as support from government policies to enhance connectivity and service offerings [15] Group 4: Financial Performance of Regional Airlines - Huaxia Airlines reported total assets of approximately 20.7 billion CNY and revenue of about 6.7 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.98% [16] - The airline's net profit attributable to shareholders reached approximately 268 million CNY, a significant increase of 127.77% compared to the previous year [16] Group 5: Government Support for Regional Aviation - In January 2024, the Ministry of Finance and the Civil Aviation Administration revised the subsidy management measures for regional airlines, focusing on enhancing support for routes operated by regional aircraft [19]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the logistics and transportation industry, particularly the integration of unmanned vehicles and the profitability of airlines [1][2]. Key Points on Unmanned Vehicles - Unmanned vehicle procurement is expected to more than double, leading to cost reductions in the last-mile delivery segment [1]. - Forecasted unmanned vehicle scales for 2024 are as follows: - SF Express: 800 units - ZTO Express: over 1000 units - YTO Express: 500 units - Shentong Express: 200-300 units - By 2025, leading express companies are anticipated to see unmanned vehicle scales double [1]. - The price of the E-series unmanned logistics vehicle from Jiushi Intelligent has dropped to 19,800 yuan, with a monthly subscription service for FSD starting at 1,800 yuan [1]. - Different procurement strategies are being adopted by express companies: - SF Express is utilizing a leasing model for quicker deployment. - The Tongda system is supporting franchisees in procuring unmanned vehicles to reduce costs [1]. - There is an expectation for further opening of road rights, which would enhance cost reductions in last-mile delivery through unmanned vehicles [1]. Key Points on Airline Profitability - The domestic airline revenue management strategy has begun to show effects, with domestic ticket prices experiencing year-on-year growth [3]. - It is projected that the year-on-year decline in seat revenue for listed airlines in Q2 will narrow to 3%-4% [3]. - Due to OPEC+ continuing to increase production unexpectedly from May to July, it is anticipated that airline unit fuel costs will decrease by approximately 18% year-on-year by Q2 2025 [3]. - The correlation between ticket prices and fuel costs suggests that the three major airlines are likely to achieve positive profits in Q2, with private airlines also expected to show year-on-year growth [3]. - There may be a decline in volume and price data following the exam period and the Dragon Boat Festival, which could present a reverse layout opportunity [3]. - Recommendations include: - Juneyao Airlines - Huaxia Airlines - Spring Airlines - Air China H - China Southern Airlines H [3]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the profitability turning point for airlines and the potential for unmanned vehicles to significantly impact cost structures in logistics [1][3].

A股机场航运板块盘初走弱，吉祥航空跌超3%，春秋航空、中国国航、南方航空、华夏航空、中国东 航跟跌。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The average annual growth rate of China's civil aviation passenger supply (available seat kilometers, ASK) is expected to be around 3.1% from 2025 to 2028, significantly lower than the 15.4% growth rate from 2009 to 2019, indicating a solid foundation for the aviation cycle to start [1][12][64]. Supply Growth Factors - The introduction of tariffs may further suppress the growth rate of China's civil aviation supply. Although the tariff rate has significantly decreased compared to April 2025, it still impacts the willingness of Chinese airlines to introduce new Boeing aircraft, potentially leading to a longer recovery cycle for aircraft manufacturers' production capacity [3][6]. - As of April 2025, Chinese airlines have nearly 600 aircraft orders from Boeing and Airbus, with most deliveries concentrated between 2025 and 2027. However, there is a high uncertainty regarding delivery timelines, with an expected 25% of aircraft deliveries being delayed in the next three years [3][13][20]. - The impact of leased aircraft on China's aviation supply is expected to gradually diminish, as major airlines have substantial aircraft orders and are less inclined to expand their fleets through leasing due to rising leasing costs [3][43]. Aircraft Retirement Trends - The volume of aircraft retirements remains at a peak level, with the industry entering a phase of high aircraft retirements due to aging fleets and concentrated lease expirations. The retirement rate is projected to stabilize around 2.5% in the coming years [4][51]. - Factors affecting aviation supply include aircraft utilization rates, which are expected to gradually improve, and a trend of decreasing average seat numbers per aircraft due to the increasing proportion of smaller aircraft [4][59]. Tariff Impacts - The tariffs imposed on U.S. imports have increased the costs for Chinese airlines to acquire Boeing aircraft, potentially leading to a decrease in demand for new aircraft and delays in orders [6][30]. - The global supply chain for aircraft manufacturing remains tight, with tariffs exacerbating the situation by increasing the costs of imported components, thereby extending the aircraft maintenance cycles [8][7]. Production Capacity and Delivery Issues - The production capacity of Boeing, Airbus, and COMAC is affected by global supply chain constraints and tariffs, leading to slower recovery in production capacity and delivery timelines [7][20]. - The delivery peak for Airbus aircraft is expected in 2026, while Boeing's delivery peak is anticipated in 2027, with significant uncertainty surrounding the delivery schedules due to production capacity issues [21][34]. Market Dynamics - The average annual growth rate of the passenger fleet is projected to be 2.8% from 2025 to 2028, a significant decrease from pre-2020 levels, driven by rationalized aircraft acquisitions and the peak retirement phase in the aviation market [61][64]. - The demand for domestic aircraft, particularly the C919, is expected to grow, but actual delivery timelines may be extended due to production capacity constraints and tariff impacts [35][38].

Group 1 - The A-share airport and shipping sector has strengthened, with Huaxia Airlines rising over 7% [1] - Both Juneyao Airlines and China National Aviation have increased by more than 3% [1] - China Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines also experienced gains [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the contrasting fortunes within the low-cost airline industry, exemplified by the struggles of Happy Airlines against the backdrop of profitable competitors like Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines. It emphasizes that the challenges faced by Happy Airlines stem from internal issues rather than the overall industry climate [5][8][15]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The low-cost airline sector has seen significant growth, with the market share of low-cost carriers in the Asia-Pacific region increasing from 28.1% in 2020 to 32.4% in 2024 for domestic routes, and from 8.4% to 18.6% for international routes [11]. - In China, the low-cost airline market accounted for only 8.1% of domestic routes as of last year, indicating substantial growth potential as the market matures [11]. - Projections suggest that by 2025, the Chinese low-cost airline market could exceed 120 billion yuan, representing 25% of the total civil aviation transport market, with an annual compound growth rate of 18% [11][12]. Group 2: Happy Airlines' Struggles - Happy Airlines has faced continuous operational challenges since its inception, including a lack of profitability and high debt levels, with a reported asset-liability ratio exceeding 200% as of April this year [19][20]. - The airline's fleet primarily consists of the New Zhou 60 aircraft, which has not been well-received in the market, compounded by competition from high-speed rail networks [19]. - Despite attempts to diversify its fleet by introducing Boeing 737 aircraft, the airline's financial situation worsened due to the pandemic and increased operational costs [19][20]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Major low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines have established strong market positions through efficient operational strategies, such as maximizing seating capacity and minimizing operational costs [24][25]. - Traditional full-service airlines are increasingly competing in the low-cost segment, leading to price wars that blur the lines between low-cost and full-service offerings [28][29]. - The overall aviation industry is experiencing "profit anxiety," with average ticket prices declining significantly, impacting profitability across the board [30][31].

Core Insights - The event "Jinglongyun・Ruyixing" focused on the deep integration of aviation and tourism, highlighting the collaboration between Gansu and Hubei provinces for the summer flight season of 2025 [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The event was co-hosted by Gansu Airport Group, Hubei Airport Group, and Tongcheng Travel, attracting over 120 industry elites from aviation, tourism, and media sectors [2] - Major airlines such as China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines participated, showcasing their latest travel products [2] Group 2: Flight Network and Services - Gansu Airport Group plans to operate over 200 passenger routes this summer, connecting nearly 100 cities, with 12 new routes linking Gansu and Hubei [2] - New domestic routes include "Lanzhou-Zhangye-Dunhuang" and "Lanzhou-Jinchang-Jiayuguan," increasing the total number of domestic routes to 27 [2] - The introduction of the "Jinglan Fly・Ruyixing" transfer service aims to enhance passenger convenience with features like expedited check-in and free accommodation [2] Group 3: Data Analysis and Marketing Strategies - Tongcheng Travel utilized big data to analyze travel preferences and spending habits of tourists from Gansu and Central China [3] - The event promoted the "Air-Rail Intermodal" travel solution and exclusive discounts to encourage travel between Gansu and Hubei [3] - The collaboration signifies a deeper partnership in optimizing flight routes and sharing tourism resources between the two provinces [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the aviation industry is expected to see a turnaround in performance starting in 2025, driven by declining oil prices and long-term supply-demand optimization [1] - The overall trend in the aviation sector from 2025 onwards is characterized by increased volume and stable pricing, with international routes nearing full recovery [1][2] - Airlines are shifting their strategy from price prioritization to a balance of volume and price, with expectations of rising capacity and load factors in 2024, despite pressure on ticket prices [2] Group 2 - Supply of capacity remains constrained due to factors such as supply chain bottlenecks and trade frictions, with aircraft delivery rates expected to be below expectations in the coming years [3] - The significant drop in oil prices is expanding profit margins for airlines, with a 1% decrease in oil prices leading to cost reductions or profit increases for major airlines [4] - If fuel prices remain low in 2025, it will provide substantial support to airline profits [4]

智通财经APP获悉，中邮证券发布研报称，进入二季度后，民航旅客运输量增长速度有所回升，行业供 给保持低位，价格降幅有所收窄。五一小长假民航量价数据表现良好，各航司收益管理成效逐步体现， 看好民航业价格改善趋势。当前关税压力暂时缓解，油价汇率走势友好，推荐春秋航空、吉祥航空、华 夏航空，关注大航业绩底部回暖。 全国民航国际及地区航线同比稳步放量，主要国际及地区航线中，日韩、新西兰、马来西亚、越南等地 恢复水平较好。分航空公司来看，大航中，国航、东航运力投放同比增长较快，民营航司中吉祥航空运 力大幅转向投入国际航线，各航司国际线客座率同比表现有所差异，东航、南航、吉祥客座率同比有所 提升，国航、春秋则有所下降。地区市场方面，因中国香港、中国台湾区域市场航班量波动，各航司地 区线市场运力投放整体有所下降。 飞机引进保持低位，油价汇率走势友好 民航运力引进整体仍保持低位，2024年民航客机机队规模4126架，同比仅增长2.8%，其中宽体机减量9 架，2025年前四个月民航客机引进合计64架，仍保持低位，供给增长依然缓慢。此外，近期油价震荡走 低，汇率企稳，利好民航成本费用端表现，预计民航二季度业绩有望好转。 中邮证券 ...

证券研究报告：航空运输|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 2000.5 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 2398.85 | | 52 周最低 | | 1625.59 | 分析师:曾凡喆 SAC 登记编号:S1340523100002 Email:zengfanzhe@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《6 月客座率超 19 年同期，中报预告基 本符合预期》 - 2024.07.16 航空运输 4 月数据点评 客座率同比走高，价格预期改善 l 各航司披露 2025 年 4 月运营数据 各航空公司披露 2025 年 4 月运营数据。4 月各航司整体运量保 持增长，增速略快于 3 月。各航司间运营表现有所分化，大航中，东 航运量增速靠前，民营航司中，春秋增速快于吉祥。客座率方面，三 大航客座率继续走高，南航、东航客座率突破 85%，春秋客座率略有 下降，吉祥客座率略有上升。 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 2024-05 2024-07 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 -20% -16% -12% -8% ...