Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 16.97 CNY per share compared to the current price of 15.45 CNY [3][4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth driven by the Spring Festival peak season and contributions from new products, with monthly sales of quail eggs projected to reach 44 million CNY in Q3 2023, aiming for a "billion-level" single product [2]. - The anticipated net profit for Q1 2024 is projected to be between 71 to 78 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 80.0% to 100.0% [47]. - The profit growth is attributed to revenue increases from scale effects, supply chain optimization, and a decrease in the prices of key raw materials [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are as follows: - 2024E: 2,659 million CNY (growth rate: 28.8%) - 2025E: 3,289 million CNY (growth rate: 23.7%) - 2026E: 3,946 million CNY (growth rate: 20.0%) [8]. - The net profit forecast for the same period is: - 2024E: 306 million CNY (growth rate: 46.1%) - 2025E: 397 million CNY (growth rate: 29.7%) - 2026E: 483 million CNY (growth rate: 21.6%) [8]. - The report indicates an improvement in profit margins, with the gross margin expected to reach 29.8% in 2024 and net margin at 11.6% [31]. Valuation Metrics - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 25 for 2024, with a corresponding fair value of 16.97 CNY per share [3][4]. - The projected EPS for 2024 is 0.68 CNY, with a decreasing PE ratio forecasted from 25.61 in 2023 to 14.42 by 2026 [31]. Market Position - The company is leveraging its traditional distribution channels while expanding into modern supermarkets and snack chains, enhancing its market presence [2]. - The strategic focus on both small and large packaging formats is expected to solidify its competitive advantage in the market [2].

证 2024 年 04 月 11 日 报 告 基本数据 2024-04-11 当前股价（元） 15.45 总市值（亿元） 70 公 研 总股本（百万股） 451 52 周价格范围（元） 9.79-15.45 司 究 利润端增速亮眼，加固单品竞争力 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 2024 年 04 月 10 日，劲仔食品发布 2024 年一季度业绩预 告。 ▌利润快速增长，规模效应持续显现 2024Q1 预计公司归母净利润 0.71-0.78 亿元（同增 80%- 100%），扣非净利润 0.55-0.63 亿元（同增 68%-92%）。主 要系营业收入增长带来的规模效应和供应链效益优化/原材料 价格同比下降/获得政府补助同比增长所致。 ▌延续升级主旋律，多方面夯实鹌鹑蛋竞争优势 2024 年从渠道/原材料/制造/品牌端全方位夯实鹌鹑蛋竞争 优势，延续高质量增长的趋势。在渠道端，深化散称渠道和 鹌鹑蛋品类经销商的布局，同时 2024 年鹌鹑蛋线上销售方案 已出，预期通过渠道拓展带来更多增量贡献；在原材料端， 通过与上游原料基地的建立战略合作关系来保障原材料供 ...

52 周内最高/最低价 14.63 / 9.79 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 2024 年 4 月 11 日 总股本/流通股本（亿股）4.51 / 3.03 市盈率 30.43 买入|维持 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 ⚫ 事件 证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 最新收盘价（元） 14.52 资产负债率(%) 27.8% 股票投资评级 -32% -29% -26% -23% -20% -17% -14% -11% -8% -5% -2% 1% 2023-04 2023-06 2023-09 2023-11 2024-01 2024-04 劲仔食品 食品饮料 劲仔食品(003000) 公司发布 2024 年一季度业绩预告，公司预计实现归母净利润 0.70-0.78 亿元，同比增长 80.00%-100%；预计实现非扣净利润 0.55- 0.63 亿元，同比增长 68.30%-92.13%。 ⚫ 投资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next six months [6][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of between 70.56 million and 78.40 million yuan in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 60% to 80%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 55.38 million and 63.22 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 68% to 92% [6]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2024 to 2026 at 291 million, 376 million, and 476 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 39%, 29%, and 27% [7]. - The company's strategy focuses on upgrading packaging and expanding modern distribution channels, particularly through poultry products, which is expected to drive revenue growth [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1.462 billion yuan in 2022 to 4.09 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 23.1% [10]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable, with estimates of 28.4% by 2026 [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 0.31 yuan in 2022 to 1.06 yuan in 2026 [10]. Performance Drivers - The company's product matrix optimization through a "large packaging + loose sales" strategy is anticipated to enhance brand strength and profitability [7]. - The introduction of new product specifications and the expansion of distribution channels are expected to contribute to continued revenue growth in 2024 [7]. - The net profit margin is projected to remain high, with estimates of 12% to 13% for Q1 2024, supported by improved production efficiency and lower raw material costs [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating strong expectations for future performance [1][25]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve high-quality revenue and profit growth in 2024, driven by sustainable performance improvement [1]. - The first quarter of 2024 is projected to see a revenue increase of 30-35% year-on-year, with net profit margins expected to rise to approximately 12%-13.3% [13][23]. - Key factors contributing to profit growth include scale effects, supply chain optimization, and a decrease in raw material prices [13][14]. Financial Data Summary - The company's total revenue for 2024 is forecasted to be 26.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 30% [25]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is 3.05 billion yuan, reflecting a 46% increase compared to the previous year [25]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.68 yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21x [25]. Market Performance - The closing price of the company's stock is reported at 14.52 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 6.55 billion yuan [17]. - The company has maintained a strong market position, with significant growth potential in its key product lines, particularly quail eggs [24].

来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 劲仔食品 (003000.SZ) 业绩简评 4 月 10 日公司披露一季度业绩预告，24Q1 预计实现归母净利润 0.71-0.78 亿元，同比增长 80.00%-100.00%；实现扣非归母净利 润 0.55-0.63 亿元，同比+68.30%-92.13%，业绩超预期。 经营分析 预计 Q1 净利率明显改善，主要系规模效应持续释放。假定 24Q1 收入增速在 30%~50%之间，系春节开门红表现较好，核心大单品延 续较好的增长态势，新品鹌鹑蛋产能持续提升（据 23 年报显示新 增产能规划 8000 吨，同比+50%）。以预告利润中枢计算归母净利 率为 11.3%-13.1%，同比增加 2.4pct-4.2pct；以预告利润中枢计 算扣非净利率为 8.9%-10.4%，同比增加 1.4pct-2.9pct。 利润超预期主要系，1）鹌鹑蛋月销环比爬升,小鱼、豆干等品类 预计维持双位数增长，规模效应持续释放。据 23 年报显示，肉禽 类产品毛利率 20%+，我们认为随着供应链优化及规模效应释放， 毛利率有望向小鱼看齐。2）24Q1 主要原材料如鳀鱼、鹌鹑蛋、黄 豆等价格回落，成本 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][25]. Core Views - The company aims to achieve a "three-year doubling" target, with a projected revenue of 20.65 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 41.26% [8][25]. - The company has successfully completed its doubling target since its listing three years ago, with a net profit of 2.10 billion yuan in 2023, up 68.17% year-on-year [8][25]. - The next three-year plan focuses on further doubling revenue, emphasizing key products such as deep-sea fish and quail eggs, while also diversifying into other product lines [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 20.65 billion yuan for 2023, with a net profit of 2.10 billion yuan, and a quarterly revenue of 5.72 billion yuan in Q4, marking a 26.51% year-on-year increase [8][25]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 28.17%, an increase of 2.55 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 gross margin reaching 32.61% [23]. - The company expects revenues of 27.21 billion yuan, 33.79 billion yuan, and 40.43 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.76 billion yuan, 3.54 billion yuan, and 4.20 billion yuan [25][12]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its product matrix through a "large packaging + bulk" strategy, with over 50% of revenue coming from this model [3]. - Key product categories include fish products, which generated 1.291 billion yuan in revenue, up 25.87% year-on-year, and quail eggs, which achieved over 300 million yuan in its first full sales year [3][10]. - The distribution model has seen significant growth, with revenue from the distribution model reaching 1.666 billion yuan, a 35.98% increase year-on-year [3]. Valuation and Future Outlook - The current stock price corresponds to a valuation of 23, 18, and 15 times earnings for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [25]. - The company is in a phase of rapid growth and improving profitability, with a target price set between 15.32 and 18.38 yuan based on a 25-30 times valuation for 2024 [25].

2023 年销售与利润双高增 食品饮料 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | ——劲仔食品 (003000)2023 年年报点评 | | | 证券研究报告 - 年报点评 | 买入 ( 上调 ) | | 市场数据 | (2024-04-02) | 发布日期： 2024 年 04 月 03 日 | | 收盘价 ( 元 | ) 14.51 | 投资要点： | | 一年内最高 | / 最低 ( 元 ) 14.80/9.79 | | | 沪深 300 | 指数 3,580.68 | ⚫ 公司发布 2023 年报： 2023 年公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 15.36 yuan, based on a 24x PE valuation for 2024 [4][26]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.065 billion yuan for 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 41.26%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 210 million yuan, up 68.17% year-on-year [1][4]. - The gross margin improved significantly, with a 2023 gross margin of 28.17%, an increase of 2.55 percentage points year-on-year, and a Q4 gross margin of 32.61%, up 7.91 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 0.64, 0.79, and 0.98 yuan respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on revenue and gross margin [4][26]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit margin of 10.15% in 2023, an increase of 1.62 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The revenue breakdown shows significant growth across various product categories, with fish products, poultry products, and quail eggs showing notable increases in sales [20][21]. - The company’s online revenue reached 416 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 34.76%, while offline revenue was 1.649 billion yuan, up 43.00% year-on-year [20]. Strategic Developments - The company is advancing its "large packaging + bulk sales" strategy, with significant growth in both large packaging and bulk sales channels [20][21]. - The number of distributors increased from 2,267 at the end of 2022 to 3,057 by the end of 2023, indicating a strengthening distribution network [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 17.92 yuan, corresponding to a 28 times PE for 2024 [3][10][20]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2.07 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 41.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 210 million yuan, up 68.2% [1][2]. - The company is experiencing significant growth in its product categories, particularly in quail eggs, which have become a potential billion-level product with sales exceeding 300 million yuan [21][28]. - The company is focusing on expanding its distribution channels, with over 50% of its products sold in large packaging and bulk formats, enhancing its presence in high-potential offline channels [21][22]. Financial Performance - The overall gross margin for 2023 was 28.2%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs and economies of scale [2]. - The net profit margin improved to 10.3%, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company forecasts net profits of 290 million yuan, 370 million yuan, and 450 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.64 yuan, 0.82 yuan, and 1.00 yuan [3][4]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from fish products reached 1.29 billion yuan, growing by 25.9%, while revenue from poultry products surged by 148% to 450 million yuan [21]. - The company is also seeing strong growth in its bean products and vegetable products, with respective revenue increases of 18.7% and 88.2% [21][28]. Future Growth Projections - The company expects fish product sales to grow at rates of 22%, 18%, and 15% from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins projected to rise to 32.2%, 32.9%, and 33.5% [7][28]. - Poultry products, particularly quail eggs, are anticipated to see significant growth, with sales growth rates of 60%, 45%, and 30% over the same period [28]. Shareholder Confidence - The controlling shareholder has committed not to sell shares for 12 months post-IPO, indicating confidence in the company's future [22]. - The company has announced a share buyback plan of 20 to 40 million yuan to support employee incentive programs [22].