Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhifei Biological (300122.SZ) is Neutral [2][4][16]. Core Views - Zhifei Biological is a major player in the Chinese vaccine market, with core products including the quadrivalent/nine-valent HPV vaccine (in collaboration with Merck), shingles vaccine (in collaboration with GSK), and self-developed vaccines and tuberculosis products. The company is expected to launch several products in the next three years, which should support revenue growth. However, the quadrivalent/nine-valent HPV vaccine may face a decline starting in 2025 due to the latest agreement with Merck [2][4]. - The report highlights key events to watch: the launch of the human diploid cell rabies vaccine, the 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, and the quadrivalent influenza vaccine, as well as new product licensing from multinational companies [2][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Zhifei Biological, indicating that the current valuation is reasonable compared to the historical average pre-COVID-19 [2][4]. Financial Projections - The 12-month price target for Zhifei Biological is set at RMB 52, based on a two-stage discounted cash flow valuation method, with a discount rate of 9% and a perpetual growth rate of 2% [3][4]. - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: RMB 52.92 billion for 2023, RMB 55.59 billion for 2024, RMB 51.37 billion for 2025, and RMB 50.44 billion for 2026 [4]. Key Products and Developments - The report notes that the RSV vaccine developed by GSK has entered Phase III clinical trials in China, with an expected completion date for the primary endpoint follow-up in March 2025. If successful, it may receive approval from the National Medical Products Administration in the first half of 2026 [1]. - The quadrivalent/nine-valent HPV vaccine is expected to face a decline starting in 2025, which is a significant concern for the company's revenue [2][4].

证券代码：300122 证券简称：智飞生物 公告编号：2024-36 重庆智飞生物制品股份有限公司 2023 年年度权益分派实施公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 重庆智飞生物制品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2023年年度权益分派 方案已获2024年6月18日召开的2023年年度股东大会审议通过，现将权益分派事 宜公告如下： 一、股东大会审议通过利润分配方案情况 1、本公司 2023 年年度股东大会审议通过的 2023 年年度权益分派方案为： 公司以 2,393,789,747 股为基数，向全体股东每 10 股派发现金红利 8.00 元（含 税），送红股 0 股（含税），以资本公积金向全体股东每 10 股转增 0 股。如在 2023 年年度利润分配相关公告披露后至实施权益分派的股权登记日前，公司总 股本发生变动的，将以实施分配方案时股权登记日的总股本为基数，按照现金分 红总额、送红股总额、转增股本总额固定不变的原则实施； 1 2、扣税说明：扣税后，通过深股通持有股份的香港市场投资者、QFII、RQFII 以及持有首发前限售股的个人和证券投 ...

证券代码：300122 证券简称：智飞生物 公告编号：2024-35 重庆智飞生物制品股份有限公司 关于取得发明专利证书的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 1 | 发明专利名称 | 专利号 | 专利证书号 | 专利类型 | 专利申请日 | 授权公告日 | 专利权人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一种低聚合破伤 风类毒素制备方 | ZL202210464623.9 | 第 7245617 号 | 发明专利 | 2022 年 04 月 | 2024 年 07 月 | 智飞生物 智飞绿竹 | | 法 | | | | 29 日 | 30 日 | 智飞龙科马 | 上述发明专利为公司自主研发，将在公司相关在研产品上应用。该专利证书 的取得不会对公司近期生产经营产生重大影响，但有利于进一步完善公司知识产 权保护体系，充分发挥自主知识产权优势，促进技术创新，提升公司的核心竞争 力。 特此公告 重庆智飞生物制品股份有限公司董事会 2024 年 7 月 30 日 重庆智飞生物制品股份有限公司（以 ...

证券代码：300122 证券简称：智飞生物 公告编号：2024-33 重庆智飞生物制品股份有限公司 关于四价重组诺如病毒疫苗进入Ⅲ期临床试验的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 重庆智飞生物制品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于近日获悉，由全资 子公司安徽智飞龙科马生物制药有限公司研发的四价重组诺如病毒疫苗（毕赤酵 母）（以下简称"四价重组诺如疫苗"）在广西、湖南、四川开展Ⅲ期临床试验。 一、项目简介 三、Ⅲ期临床试验相关情况 四价重组诺如疫苗的Ⅲ期临床试验在广西、湖南和四川启动，采用多中心、 随机、盲法、安慰剂对照设计，以评价该疫苗接种于 6 周龄及以上人群中的有效 性和安全性。 四、风险提示 1 1、药品研制是非常复杂严谨的科学活动，具有投入大，周期长，风险高的 特点，产品的研发和行政审批主要有以下几个阶段：临床前研究；申请临床试验； 进行临床试验；申请生产文号；疫苗批签发后上市销售。 2、公司四价重组诺如疫苗进入Ⅲ期临床试验阶段不会对公司近期业绩产生 重大影响。若未来该产品研发顺利，将进一步丰富公司肠道疫苗矩阵产品布局， 满足更广泛的民 ...

重庆智飞生物制品股份有限公司 关于四价流感病毒裂解疫苗（ZFA02 佐剂） 证券代码：300122 证券简称：智飞生物 公告编号：2024-34 新技术、增强核心攻关的成果。若本项目进展顺利，将进一步丰富公司病毒类疫 苗品种，充实公司成人疫苗矩阵项目，完善公司产品布局，强化公司的市场竞争 优势。 三、风险提示 1、药品研制是非常复杂严谨的科学活动，具有投入大，周期长，风险高的 特点，产品的研发和行政审批主要有以下几个阶段：临床前研究；申请临床试验； 进行临床试验；申请生产文号；上市销售。 2、公司佐剂四价流感疫苗临床试验申请获得受理对公司近期业绩不会产生 重大影响，若未来产品研发顺利，将丰富公司产品结构，强化公司的市场地位， 增强公司盈利能力。 临床试验申请获得受理的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 重庆智飞生物制品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于近日获悉，由全资子 公司安徽智飞龙科马生物制药有限公司（以下简称"智飞龙科马"）研发的四价流 感病毒裂解疫苗（ZFA02 佐剂）（以下简称"佐剂四价流感疫苗"）获得国家药品 监督管理局药物临床试 ...

证券代码：300122 证券简称：智飞生物 公告编号：2024-32 重庆智飞生物制品股份有限公司 一、控股股东股份质押的基本情况 1、本次股份质押基本情况 | 股东 名称 | 是否为 控股股 东或第 一大股 | 本次质押 股数 | 占其所 持股份 比例 | 占公司 总股本 比例 | 是否 为限 | 是否 为补 充质 | 质押起始日 质押到期日 | 质权人 | 质押 用途 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 东及其 | （股） | （%） | （%） | 售股 | 押 | | | | | | 一致行 动人 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 重庆农 | | | | | | | | | | | 村商业 | 股权 | | 蒋仁生 | 是 | 20,500,000 | 1.77 | 0.86 | 是 | 否 | 2024-07-19 2030-11-07 | 银行股 | 类投 | | | | | | | | | | 份有限 | 资 | | | | | | | | | | 公司 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, with a target price of 46.20 yuan, reflecting a 12x P/E ratio for 2024 [7]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a seasonal increase in accounts receivable and inventory, with accounts receivable rising by 11% to 30.03 billion yuan in Q1 2024, while inventory increased by 40% to 12.61 billion yuan [3][12]. - The company has a strong grassroots sales channel, with 3,990 sales personnel as of the end of 2023, significantly surpassing industry peers [4][19]. - The HPV vaccine is entering a mature phase, with a current vaccination rate of 21% among eligible women, indicating potential for growth [4][21]. - The company has secured exclusive distribution rights for GSK's shingles vaccine, with minimum procurement amounts projected at 3.44 billion yuan for 2024 [4][18]. - The company is expanding its product pipeline, including vaccines for tuberculosis, pneumonia, influenza, and rabies, and plans to acquire Chen'an Biotech to enter the diabetes and obesity treatment market [4][31]. Summary by Sections Accounts Receivable and Inventory Increase in Q1 2024 - Accounts receivable increased by 11% to 30.03 billion yuan, while inventory rose by 40% to 12.61 billion yuan [12][16]. - The increase in accounts receivable is attributed to seasonal factors, with a notable decrease in turnover days compared to peers [3][12]. Company's Operational Advantages and "Second Curve" - The company has a robust grassroots channel and a dual-driven model of technology and market, with R&D spending of 1.35 billion yuan in 2023 [4][19]. - The company is entering a "second curve" by diversifying its product offerings and expanding into new therapeutic areas [20][28]. - The shingles vaccine market has a potential capacity of 164.8 billion to 1,648.5 billion yuan, depending on penetration rates [26][27]. Shareholder Return Attributes - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of at least 10 yuan per 10 shares, corresponding to a dividend yield of 3.5% [5][32]. - A share buyback of 300 million yuan has been completed, reflecting the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders [5][32]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 9.22 billion, 11.32 billion, and 12.71 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with respective growth rates of 14%, 23%, and 12% [7][34]. - The revenue forecast for 2024 is 58.85 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.2% [35].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "OUTPERFORM" rating to the company with a target price of Rmb 46.2 [1]. Core Insights - The report explores the operational turning point of the company, highlighting its strong grassroots channels, significant R&D investments, and potential growth areas in the HPV and shingles vaccine markets [2][4][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Accounts Receivable and Inventory Increase in Q1 2024 - The company's accounts receivable increased by 11% to Rmb 30.03 billion, while inventory rose by 40% to Rmb 12.61 billion, attributed to seasonal factors [3][14]. - The accounts receivable turnover days are significantly lower than peers at 162 days, indicating a low risk of uncollectible accounts [3][16]. 2. Operational Advantages and "Second Curve" - The company boasts a robust grassroots channel with 3,990 sales personnel, far exceeding industry peers, and has secured agency rights for major products from GSK and Merck [4][21]. - Revenue in Q1 2024 grew by 2% year-on-year, indicating the HPV vaccine may be entering a mature phase, with a current vaccination rate of 21% among eligible women [4][24]. - The company is set to officially launch GSK's shingles vaccine in 2024, with projected minimum procurement amounts of Rmb 34.4 billion, Rmb 68.8 billion, and Rmb 103.2 billion for 2024-2026 [4][20]. - The company has a rich pipeline of self-developed products in various stages, including tuberculosis and influenza vaccines, and plans to acquire a company to expand into diabetes and weight loss medications [4][31][34]. 3. Shareholder Return Attributes - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of at least Rmb 10 per 10 shares for 2023 and 2024, corresponding to a dividend yield of 3.5% [5][35]. - A share buyback of Rmb 300 million has been completed, and an employee stock ownership plan has been implemented, with 2,910,000 shares purchased [5][36]. 4. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2024-2026 are Rmb 9.22 billion, Rmb 11.32 billion, and Rmb 12.71 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 14%, 23%, and 12% respectively [8][37]. - The report assigns a P/E ratio of 12x for 2024, leading to a target price of Rmb 46.20, with a market capitalization estimate of Rmb 922 billion to Rmb 1,106 billion [8][39].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% [7]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing steady growth in the sales of the 9-valent HPV vaccine, with a year-over-year increase of 14% in batch approvals from January to May [5]. - The company has entered into an agreement with GSK for the distribution of the shingles vaccine, which has shown a remarkable growth of 117% in batch approvals during the same period [5]. - The sales team is described as industry-leading, with a workforce of 3,990 professionals covering all provinces and over 30,000 grassroots health service points, which is expected to drive the sales of both HPV and shingles vaccines [5]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 85.4 billion, RMB 97.5 billion, and RMB 100.7 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 5.8%, 14.2%, and 3.3% [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 3.6, RMB 4.1, and RMB 4.2 for the same years, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 7.9X, 6.9X, and 6.7X [5]. - The company anticipates significant revenue contributions from the shingles vaccine, estimated at RMB 52.7 billion, RMB 105.4 billion, and RMB 158.1 billion from 2024 to 2026 [5]. Product Composition - The product mix consists of 91.4% agency products (second-class vaccines) and 8.6% self-developed products [2]. Shareholder Information - Major shareholder, Jiang Rensheng, holds 48.32% of the company [1]. - Institutional investors hold 10.8% of the circulating A-shares, with general corporations holding 3.2% [3]. Market Performance - As of June 28, 2024, the company's A-share price is RMB 28.03, with a target price set at RMB 34, indicating a potential upside [1]. - The stock has experienced a decline of 15.0% over the past month and 39.9% over the past three months [1]. Revenue and Profitability - The company’s projected operating revenue for 2024 is RMB 60.83 billion, with operating costs estimated at RMB 44.35 billion [8]. - The total profit for 2024 is expected to be RMB 10.04 billion, with a net profit of RMB 8.54 billion [8]. Dividend Information - The company is expected to provide dividends of RMB 1.18, RMB 1.34, and RMB 1.39 for the years 2024 to 2026, with a dividend yield of 4.18% [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][9]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a potential operational turning point, with increased accounts receivable and inventory due to seasonal factors, but the risk of uncollectible accounts is considered low [5][13]. - The company has a strong grassroots sales channel, with a significant number of sales personnel, and has secured domestic agency rights for major products from Merck and GSK [6][23]. - The HPV vaccine is entering a mature phase, but there is still room for growth in vaccination rates among eligible women and potential expansion into male indications [6][25]. - The company has signed an exclusive distribution agreement for GSK's shingles vaccine, with projected minimum annual procurement amounts indicating confidence in the market potential [6][30][32]. - The company is expanding its product pipeline with self-developed vaccines and plans to acquire a biopharmaceutical company to enter the diabetes and obesity treatment market [6][37]. Summary by Sections Accounts Receivable and Inventory - In Q1 2024, accounts receivable increased by 11% to 30.03 billion yuan, while inventory rose by 40% to 12.61 billion yuan [5][13]. - The accounts receivable turnover days are significantly lower than peers, indicating efficient collection processes [16]. Operational Advantages and Growth Potential - The company has a robust marketing network covering all provinces and a large sales team of 3,990 personnel, which is much higher than industry peers [6][23]. - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 52.9 billion yuan, a 38% increase year-on-year, with agency business revenue growing by 48% [24]. - The company is focusing on a "second curve" of growth through new product launches and acquisitions [24][37]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a total of at least 10 yuan per 10 shares in dividends for 2023 and 2024, corresponding to a dividend yield of 3.5% based on the stock price [7][38]. - The company has completed a share buyback worth 300 million yuan [7][38]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 9.22 billion, 11.32 billion, and 12.71 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with respective growth rates of 14%, 23%, and 12% [9][40]. - The estimated reasonable valuation range for the company is between 38.50 and 46.20 yuan per share, based on a P/E ratio of 10-12 times [9][40].