Group 1 - The technology sector has experienced significant volatility recently, leading to a divergence in the performance of actively managed equity funds heavily invested in this sector [1] - Funds focused on computing power and related technology have seen a notable reduction in net value fluctuations, while those not heavily invested in technology have experienced increased volatility [1][4] - Fund managers are adjusting their portfolios, with a growing focus on AI applications, including smart driving, AI hardware, humanoid robots, and internet companies embracing AI [1][7] Group 2 - On September 4, the AI hardware sector, represented by companies like New Yisheng and Zhongji Xuchuang, saw significant declines, with some stocks dropping over 13% [2] - The Yongying Technology Select fund, which had a high concentration in these stocks, saw its top ten holdings average a decline of over 11% [2] - Despite the downturn, the fund's A share unit net value did not drop more than 6%, indicating a potential strategic adjustment by the fund manager [2][3] Group 3 - Other funds, such as the Nordex New Trend fund, which did not heavily invest in technology stocks, experienced amplified net value fluctuations during the market correction [4] - The fund's A share unit net value saw a significant drop of over 11% despite only a 6% estimated decline, highlighting discrepancies in performance [4][5] - The Qianhai Kaiyuan Cycle Select fund also exhibited similar patterns, with a net value drop exceeding 10% against a lower estimated decline [5] Group 4 - The current market environment is characterized by a high level of interest in AI applications, with expectations for growth in this sector [6][7] - Fund managers are increasingly focusing on AI applications as a key investment opportunity, with a particular interest in sectors like smart driving and advanced semiconductor processes [7] - The AI industry is seen as being at a high emotional trading point, with both domestic and overseas developments being crucial for future growth [7]

Group 1 - The recent volatility in the large technology sector has led to a divergence in the performance of actively managed equity funds, particularly those heavily invested in specific technology segments like computing power [1][2] - Funds with significant holdings in computing power stocks have seen a noticeable reduction in net value fluctuations, while those without such exposure have experienced increased volatility, indicating substantial portfolio adjustments by fund managers [1][2] - The adjustment in the technology sector is attributed to a degree of divergence among high market capitalization growth stocks, suggesting a market correction after several months of rising valuations [1][6] Group 2 - On September 4, stocks in the AI hardware sector, represented by companies like New Yisheng and Zhongji Xuchuang, experienced significant declines, with some falling over 13% [2] - Funds such as Yongying Technology Select, which had high concentration in these stocks, reported an average decline of over 11% in their top ten holdings, yet their net value did not drop more than 6% on the same day [2][3] - The divergence between estimated and actual net value changes serves as an important reference for observing fund rebalancing activities [3] Group 3 - Some funds that did not heavily invest in technology stocks have seen their net value fluctuations increase significantly during recent market adjustments [4] - For instance, the Nordex New Trend fund, while still focused on the AI sector, had a portfolio that included several Hong Kong tech stocks, and its net value experienced a significant drop despite some holdings rising [4] - The performance of funds like Jiahe Jincheng Value Select also reflected this trend, with their net value declining more than expected despite their holdings performing relatively well [5] Group 4 - The current fluctuations in AI hardware stocks have prompted a shift in focus towards AI applications, with fund managers increasingly interested in sectors such as smart driving, AI hardware, humanoid robots, and internet companies embracing AI [1][6] - The AI industry is seen as being at a high emotional trading point, with both domestic and overseas AI supply chains developing simultaneously, presenting investment opportunities in AI applications and advanced semiconductor processes [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Innolight and Eoptolink, with target prices updated to Rmb569 and Rmb472 respectively [15][26]. Core Insights - The networking sector is viewed positively due to optimistic growth forecasts for ASICs from Broadcom, strong long-term capital expenditure outlooks from Meta/OpenAI, and Oracle's significant datacenter expansion plans, indicating better demand visibility beyond 2026 [2][11]. - Despite a strong year-to-date rally, profit-taking is expected; however, the overall narrative remains compelling with a potential re-rating of transceiver companies to a PE of 20x+ [2][3]. - The report highlights a revision in industry demand estimates for 800G and 1.6T transceivers, projecting shipments of 56.3 million and 19.2 million respectively for FY27, reflecting a 42% year-over-year growth [11][29]. Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The report emphasizes the longevity of demand in the transceiver market, driven by significant AI investments from major US cloud service providers [11]. - The expected rollout of 3.2T SiPh transceivers in late 2027 is noted as a key development, with 800G and 1.6T remaining dominant solutions in the interim [11][29]. Company Performance - Innolight is expected to secure a higher market share due to its strong R&D capabilities and its role as a key supplier for Oracle, alongside benefiting from the anticipated EML shortage [26][27]. - Eoptolink is projected to gain market share as it capitalizes on its LPO capabilities and the rapid build-out of Oracle's datacenter [15][26]. Financial Estimates - Revenue estimates for FY26 have been revised upwards, with a projected revenue of Rmb46.287 billion, reflecting a 20% increase from previous estimates [19][30]. - Net profit estimates for FY26 have also been increased to Rmb19.535 billion, a 22% rise compared to earlier projections [19][30]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the competitive landscape, noting that while some tier-2 companies are planning to enter overseas markets, significant progress has yet to be observed [3]. - The potential for a 20-30% penetration of CPO in the market by 2029-2030 is highlighted, although major CSPs have not yet shown signs of mass adoption [3][11].

Core Viewpoint - The AI computing power sector, represented by optical modules CPO, has been a significant driver of stock market performance in 2023, with the optical module CPO index rising over 100% this year, but recent market corrections indicate increasing divergence in investor sentiment [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since April, the A-share market has shown a gradual upward trend after a phase of bottoming out, with optical module CPO stocks leading the gains [2]. - Major companies in the optical module sector, such as Tianfu Communication, Xinyi Sheng, and Zhongji Xuchuang, have experienced significant stock price fluctuations, with recent declines following a period of strong performance [2][3]. Group 2: Company Performance - Companies like Xinyi Sheng, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communication have heavily relied on overseas markets, with their overseas revenue shares being approximately 94%, 86%, and 78% respectively, primarily from North American clients like Nvidia, Amazon, and Google [3][4]. - In the first half of the year, Xinyi Sheng's net profit surged 3.6 times to 3.9 billion yuan, while Zhongji Xuchuang led with a revenue scale of 23.8 billion yuan and a net profit nearing 4 billion yuan [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The optical module CPO technology is crucial for AI computing, enabling high-speed data transmission essential for AI server efficiency [2][3]. - Recent announcements from major clients, such as Google Cloud, indicate strong future capital expenditures, particularly for 800G optical modules, suggesting continued demand growth in the sector [4]. Group 4: Risks and Market Sentiment - The optical module CPO sector is facing signals of high valuation, crowded positions, and reduced media enthusiasm, leading to a declining risk-reward ratio [4][5]. - The low technical barriers to entry in the optical module market may invite new competitors, potentially leading to price competition and overcapacity issues [4][5]. - Diverging market opinions exist, with some analysts projecting optimistic profit growth for companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, while others caution against overly idealistic forecasts that overlook cyclical risks [5][6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The demand for optical modules is expected to grow alongside global AI computing expansion, but the era of high profits may not be sustainable due to increasing competition and standardization [6]. - Investors are advised to maintain realistic expectations regarding returns and to be aware of the cyclical nature of the industry, which can lead to significant market fluctuations [6].

（原标题：光模块"三剑客"崛起：AI算力革命下的确定性赛道？） 触顶还是盘整？今天来聊聊A股一度炙手可热的大明星，"易中天"。当然我们不是要讲"三国"，而是A股光通信板块出现的"三剑客"——新易盛、 中际旭创、天孚通信，来看看他们为何股价经历狂飙之后，今年却出现震荡下行的势头。 执行统筹： 祝乃娟 监制：洪晓文 曾婷芳 编辑：洪晓文 这三家到底什么来头？先来看下，他们的主营业务都是光模块。光模块这个东西，主要是实现光电信号的相互转换，包括了光电子器件、功能电 路和光接口，是光通信产业链上游核心环节。听着是不是有点复杂？我们不妨把它理解为网络信号的翻译器和加速器，能够提高海量数据的传递 和处理速率。 说到这大家可能心里有数了，什么业务需要海量高效的数据处理？AI大模型啊！光模块的主要下游客户是阿里、腾讯这样的云计算厂商以及通信 运营商，它们的AI大模型应用的训练及推理，都要依赖光模块来进行。所以，在我国人工智能迅猛发展的背景下，算力需求成倍增长，光模块这 样的底层硬件就站上了"风口"，板块上相关的公司也就成为市场追逐的焦点。 当然，光模块"三剑客"不断兑现的业绩，也是市场关注的焦点。作为英伟达的核心供应商，中际 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the surge in stock prices of companies Xin Yiseng, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communication, collectively referred to as "Yizhongtian," is driven by the rising demand for computing power in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, particularly through the adoption of CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technology [1][4][8] - Xin Yiseng's stock price has increased over five times, Zhongji Xuchuang over four times, and Tianfu Communication over three times since April 2025 [1] - CPO technology is crucial for achieving breakthroughs in optical communication modules, enabling lower power consumption, smaller size, and faster transmission, thus serving as the "highway of computing power" in the AI era [1][3] Group 2 - The demand for computing power is surging due to the rapid development of AI technology, with data centers requiring higher transmission efficiency as traditional copper transmission approaches physical limits [3][6] - According to Yole, the CPO market is projected to grow from $46 million in 2024 to $8.1 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 137% [3] - In the first half of 2025, Xin Yiseng reported revenue of 10.437 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 282.64%, and a net profit of 3.942 billion yuan, up 355.68% [3] Group 3 - The explosive demand for computing power is supported by strong policy backing for AI development in China, with the State Council's action plan aiming for deep integration of AI across six key sectors by 2027 [7][8] - The Chinese large model industry has established a complete structure from foundational layers to application layers, with domestic open-source models rapidly developing and narrowing the performance gap with international counterparts [7][8] - China is building a full-chain advantage in the AI field, with significant positions in the global optical module market and ongoing advancements in both hardware and software [8]

创业板人工智能ETF华夏（159381）跟踪创业板人工智能指数（970070.CNI），精准布局AI产业链龙 头，聚焦高景气AI算力【光模块CPO权重占比超50%，其中前三大权重股为新易盛（20.3%）、中际旭 创（18.8%）、天孚通信（6.5%）】+AI中游软件+应用，高效地捕捉AI主题行情，目前该ETF场内综合 费率仅0.20%，位居同类最低。 9月10日，AI算力方向再度强势领涨市场，热门ETF中，同类费率最低的创业板人工智能ETF华夏 （159381）午盘一度涨超5%。截至13：16，权重股新易盛、中际旭创涨超9%，天孚通信涨超5%。 消息面上，甲骨文第一季度业绩公布，财报显示，公司截至第一财季末的"剩余履约义务"（即已签约但 未交付的合同收入）同比暴增359%，达到4550亿美元。这一数字远超市场预期。有分析指出，创纪录 的订单金额，不仅刷新了软件行业历史最高签约纪录，更标志着其商业模式正朝着数据中心运营商方向 进行根本性转型。尽管面临毛利率压力，但远期每股收益目标很可能实现大幅提升。 值得注意的是，近期花旗上调了中际旭创、新易盛、天孚通信的目标价，对这三家企业均维持 "买入 （Buy）" 评级， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by the increasing demand for optical devices in data centers, particularly in the context of AI and cloud computing applications [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's operating revenue reached 2.456 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 57.84% [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 899 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 37.46%, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 867 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 35.27% [1][2]. Product Line Growth - The revenue growth was attributed to both active and passive product lines, with the demand for optical devices driven by the expansion of global data centers and advancements in AI technology [2]. - The company is focusing on developing high-power laser devices and other advanced optical components to enhance its core technological competitiveness [2]. Market Outlook - The optical device market for data centers is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with projections indicating over 60% growth in 2025, leading to revenues exceeding 16 billion USD [3]. - The demand for Ethernet optical modules is anticipated to grow by 50% in 2025, with a forecasted alleviation of EML shortages in the latter half of the year [3]. Investment Recommendation - The company is positioned as a leading provider of optical communication device solutions and advanced packaging services, with a strong focus on R&D and production of high-speed optical devices [3]. - Expected EPS for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 2.72 yuan and 3.77 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 64 and 46 times [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next six months [4][9]. Core Insights - The company has experienced significant growth in both revenue and profit, with a 57.84% year-on-year increase in revenue to 2.456 billion yuan and a 37.46% increase in net profit to 899 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [5][7]. - The demand for optical devices is expected to continue growing, driven by the expansion of global data centers and advancements in AI, cloud computing, and virtual economies [7]. - The company is focused on enhancing its core technological competitiveness through sustained R&D investment, which reached 126 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.97% [7]. Financial Summary - As of September 5, 2025, the company's market capitalization is 145.221 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 777 million shares and a return on equity (ROE) of 33.76% [3][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.72 yuan for 2025 and 3.77 yuan for 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 64 and 46 [8]. - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 52.656 billion yuan, with a net profit of approximately 2.113 billion yuan [8].

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on September 8, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index fluctuating in positive territory, while the ChiNext Index experienced a pullback [1] - The AI-driven computing power sector, particularly the optical module CPO and optical communication stocks, faced significant corrections, with the AI ETF Huaxia (159381) dropping over 5% and key holdings like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng falling more than 10% [1] - Despite recent volatility, Guosheng Securities maintains a positive outlook on the optical module industry, citing strong overseas AI computing power orders and demand, indicating that the expansion cycle driven by AI is far from over [1][2] Group 2 - The Huaxia AI ETF (159381) tracks the ChiNext AI Index (970070.CNI) and focuses on leading companies in the AI industry chain, particularly in high-demand AI computing power, with over 50% weight in optical module CPO stocks [2] - The top three holdings in the ETF are Xinyi Sheng (20.3%), Zhongji Xuchuang (18.8%), and Tianfu Communication (6.5%), highlighting a strategic focus on high-growth areas within the AI sector [2] - The ETF boasts a low comprehensive fee rate of only 0.20%, making it competitive among similar funds [2]